Coronavirus

[EliG]

a good reason for many asian countries doing well could

be their BCG immunization

 

if you look at the world - this virus hit particularly hard if rich western countries that have abandoned BCG vaccine. 

 

China is an outlier - maybe they were getting fake vaccines...

 

Have you looked at the evidence?

 

BCG vaccine was mandatory in the UK from 1953 to 2005. Mandatory in France from 1950 to 2007. Both countries are not doing well.

 

Germany stopped BCG vaccination in 1998. It's doing better than most.

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/BCG_vaccine#Europe

 

[Dalal.Holdings]

What proof actually is there that shutdowns work?

 

Most of South East Asia countries (Taiwan, Japan, Singapore, etc) never had any shutdown and their numbers are low.

 

Singapore is locked down as of yesterday.

 

'Dead city': Singapore enters month-long lockdown

https://www.nst.com.my/world/world/2020/04/582116/dead-city-singapore-enters-month-long-lockdown

 

And now Tokyo (Japan) about to enter the fray:

 

https://english.kyodonews.net/news/2020/04/1737f92bfccd-coronavirus-list-of-shops-to-close-in-tokyo-due-to-emergency-declaration.html

 

Link has an interesting graph and shows how over time there is a massive build in densely populated areas (like Tokyo or NYC) likely due to increased R0. Those dense regions have odds stacked against them in fighting this outbreak.

 

Edit: direct link for the analytically minded: https://flo.uri.sh/visualisation/1782780/embed

[Liberty]

Peter Attia podcast, Q&A with his daughter about the situation from a kid's point of view:

 

https://peterattiamd.com/covid-19-for-kids/

[Liberty]

"massive testing"

 

For sure Japan did not do massive testing or shutdowns. Their deaths till now are 94.

 

But italy did shutdowns with 17,000 deaths (adjusted to Japan population approximately double of 34,000)?

 

Is there a choice?

 

There's always anomalies. You don't know in real time what's going on, is it luck, will they have a problem later, do they have other measures and social norms that compensated (places that don't shake hands and commonly wear masks when sick)? You certainly don't cherry pick one place and hope to be them while having very different circumstances. Wishful thinking isn't a strategy. And didn't I just see they're shutting down Tokyo somewhere else?

 

I explained upthread some of what Italy did wrong, which is similar to the US actions. You are looking at this as if there was a single variable, but life's more complex and messy than that.

[Liberty]

Like Buffett says - beware of geeks with models.

 

Pretty sure Buffett and his friend Bill Gates don't think about this in soundbytes like you do and take very seriously all the best practices for pandemics from those who have been studying them their whole lives.

 

In fact, logic would lead one to think that those most worried about the economic impacts of this would be the loudest voices decrying lack of preparation and competence and asking for the biggest investments in future preparations. The costs of pandemics are so high that doing things properly, and even over-reacting early on, pays for itself a zillion times over.

[LC]

Peter Attia podcast, Q&A with his daughter about the situation from a kid's point of view:

 

https://peterattiamd.com/covid-19-for-kids/

 

In tragic news, Charlotte Figi died from COVID complications:

 

https://coloradosun.com/2020/04/08/charlotte-figi-cbd-coronavirus/

 

For those who aren't aware, she was a de facto figurehead of the marijuana legalization movement.

[Guest Schwab711]

We never shut the country down because of HIV, so clearly advice is different for different viruses.

 

The current model suggests the virus will be eradicated by July 1st, so we don't need to worry about treatment, testing, vaccines, ect. In general, I don't think folks appreciate the uncertainty here. Maybe the virus does fade as a result. Maybe current estimates are overreacting to current measures, which aren't sustainable. I think optimism is too high, but hopefully I'm wrong.

 

https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america

[cubsfan]

Like Buffett says - beware of geeks with models.

 

Pretty sure Buffett and his friend Bill Gates don't think about this in soundbytes like you do and take very seriously all the best practices for pandemics from those who have been studying them their whole lives.

 

In fact, logic would lead one to think that those most worried about the economic impacts of this would be the loudest voices decrying lack of preparation and competence and asking for the biggest investments in future preparations. The costs of pandemics are so high that doing things properly, and even over-reacting early on, pays for itself a zillion times over.

 

So you are saying, as opposed to Cherzeca - that this "One size fits all" approach is the correct one. No other alternatives?

 

What's right for NYC is right for Wyoming, etc?

 

You are saying we know where the herd immunity may stand?

 

The data they are stuffing in their models are known facts?

 

They've not been offset the impact of this drastic increase in hygiene, mask wearing, social distancing prevention?

 

We know this thing is lethal for the immune compromised and the elderly - but so will be a depression.

[Liberty]

We never shut the country down because of HIV, so clearly advice is different for different viruses.

 

If you could catch HIV with a handshake or by touching a doorknob, you can be sure we'd have had a shutdown.

 

The current model suggests the virus will be eradicated by July 1st, so we don't need to worry about treatment, testing, vaccines, ect. In general, I don't think folks appreciate the uncertainty here. Maybe the virus does fade as a result. Maybe current estimates are overreacting to current measures, which aren't sustainable. I think optimism is too high, but hopefully I'm wrong.

 

https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america

 

I don't think the model suggests "eradication", but certainly exponential decline if social distancing measures are maintained through may, after which you have to do "the dance" as described here to prevent a resurgence:

 

https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-the-hammer-and-the-dance-be9337092b56

 

http://www.healthdata.org/covid/faqs

 

The model includes the effects of social distancing measures implemented at the “first administrative level” (in the US this generally means the state level). We classified social distancing measures using the New Zealand Government alert system Level 4 and then assumed that locations that have instituted fewer than three of these measures will enact the remaining measures within seven days

[Liberty]

Like Buffett says - beware of geeks with models.

 

Pretty sure Buffett and his friend Bill Gates don't think about this in soundbytes like you do and take very seriously all the best practices for pandemics from those who have been studying them their whole lives.

 

In fact, logic would lead one to think that those most worried about the economic impacts of this would be the loudest voices decrying lack of preparation and competence and asking for the biggest investments in future preparations. The costs of pandemics are so high that doing things properly, and even over-reacting early on, pays for itself a zillion times over.

 

So you are saying, as opposed to Cherzeca - that this "One size fits all" approach is the correct one. No other alternatives?

 

What's right for NYC is right for Wyoming, etc?

 

You are saying we know where the herd immunity may stand?

 

The data they are stuffing in their models are known facts?

 

They've not been offset the impact of this drastic increase in hygiene, mask wearing, social distancing prevention?

 

We know this thing is lethal for the immune compromised and the elderly - but so will be a depression.

 

No, I'm not saying what you're saying I'm saying.

[Guest Schwab711]

We never shut the country down because of HIV, so clearly advice is different for different viruses.

 

If you could catch HIV with a handshake or by touching a doorknob, you can be sure we'd have had a shutdown.

 

The current model suggests the virus will be eradicated by July 1st, so we don't need to worry about treatment, testing, vaccines, ect. In general, I don't think folks appreciate the uncertainty here. Maybe the virus does fade as a result. Maybe current estimates are overreacting to current measures, which aren't sustainable. I think optimism is too high, but hopefully I'm wrong.

 

https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america

 

I don't think the model suggests "eradication", but certainly exponential decline if social distancing measures are maintained through may, after which you have to do "the dance" as described here to prevent a resurgence:

 

https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-the-hammer-and-the-dance-be9337092b56

 

http://www.healthdata.org/covid/faqs

 

The model includes the effects of social distancing measures implemented at the “first administrative level” (in the US this generally means the state level). We classified social distancing measures using the New Zealand Government alert system Level 4 and then assumed that locations that have instituted fewer than three of these measures will enact the remaining measures within seven days

 

How do you interpret 0 cases, 0 deaths in every country? It's possible that's a stand-in for a trivial number or cases before burning out (near-0 is modeled as 0 given difficulty in approximating such complex dynamics) but the model is quite clearly suggesting this is the first and only wave.

 

 

LENGTH OF THE EPIDEMIC

Why do your estimates only go until July? Does that mean the outbreak will be over then?

 

Our model says that social distancing will likely lead to the end of the first wave of the epidemic by early June. The question of whether there will be a second wave of the epidemic will depend on what we do to avoid reintroducing COVID-19 into the population. By end the of the first wave of the epidemic, an estimated 97% of the population of the United States will still be susceptible to the disease, so avoiding reintroduction of COVID-19 through mass screening, contact tracing, and quarantine will be essential to avoid a second wave.

 

 

I think it's clear the model is being misinterpreted by the public. There are assumptions that summer will slow the spread, social distancing will continue for 7 more weeks, ect in the lowered estimates. I'm not necessarily disagreeing with you by responding to you btw. It was more to draw attention to folks on the board that the original stuff is still true. If we are proactive, it will look like we overreacted. If we are overconfident, things will be pretty bad.

[Investor20]

What proof actually is there that shutdowns work?

 

Most of South East Asia countries (Taiwan, Japan, Singapore, etc) never had any shutdown and their numbers are low.

 

Singapore is locked down as of yesterday.

 

'Dead city': Singapore enters month-long lockdown

https://www.nst.com.my/world/world/2020/04/582116/dead-city-singapore-enters-month-long-lockdown

 

And now Tokyo (Japan) about to enter the fray:

 

https://english.kyodonews.net/news/2020/04/1737f92bfccd-coronavirus-list-of-shops-to-close-in-tokyo-due-to-emergency-declaration.html

 

May be Japan and Singapore will start shutdown.

 

India started shutdown on March 22nd.

 

See the numbers since March 22nd.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/india/

 

If Singapore and Tokyo start shutdowns, we need to see how their numbers progress.

 

For me the masks work. Safe distance works.  Washing hands works.

These are things we can do in a sustainable manner without big cost to society.

 

 

[cubsfan]

Like Buffett says - beware of geeks with models.

 

Pretty sure Buffett and his friend Bill Gates don't think about this in soundbytes like you do and take very seriously all the best practices for pandemics from those who have been studying them their whole lives.

 

In fact, logic would lead one to think that those most worried about the economic impacts of this would be the loudest voices decrying lack of preparation and competence and asking for the biggest investments in future preparations. The costs of pandemics are so high that doing things properly, and even over-reacting early on, pays for itself a zillion times over.

 

So you are saying, as opposed to Cherzeca - that this "One size fits all" approach is the correct one. No other alternatives?

 

What's right for NYC is right for Wyoming, etc?

 

You are saying we know where the herd immunity may stand?

 

The data they are stuffing in their models are known facts?

 

They've not been offset the impact of this drastic increase in hygiene, mask wearing, social distancing prevention?

 

We know this thing is lethal for the immune compromised and the elderly - but so will be a depression.

 

No, I'm not saying what you're saying I'm saying.

 

Great - when you figure out what the real CFR is, let us all know.

 

And when you know how many people actually have CV, let us know that as well.

[cubsfan]

 

 

For me the masks work. Safe distance works.  Washing hands works.

These are things we can do in a sustainable manner without big cost to society.

 

Topics like this are not up for discussion here.

[Liberty]

How do you interpret 0 cases, 0 deaths in every country? It's possible that's a stand-in for a trivial number or cases before burning out (near-0 is modeled as 0 given difficulty in approximating such complex dynamics) but the model is quite clearly suggesting this is the first and only wave.

 

I don't think this tool does what you think it does.

[Liberty]

Great - when you figure out what the real CFR is, let us all know.

 

And when you know how many people actually have CV, let us know that as well.

 

And let us know when you cure cancer and win an Emmy, while we're making random stuff up for each other to do.

[arcube]

 

May be Japan and Singapore will start shutdown.

 

India started shutdown on March 22nd.

 

See the numbers since March 22nd.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/india/

 

 

 

As opposed to?

[Liberty]

India started shutdown on March 22nd.

 

See the numbers since March 22nd.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/india/

 

 

They could show zero on that chart if they just didn't test too. Ramping up of testing is finding infections that were undetected before, it's not caused by the shutdown. Also, whatever cases you're seeing tested are infections that happened many days before, as people usually get tested by the time they have bad enough symptoms to go to a hospital/clinic.

 

You're like a guy who has read one investing book coming to an investing forum and trying to tell everybody why they're wrong about everything while obviously making all the newbie mistakes. It's just embarrassing.

[Guest Schwab711]

How do you interpret 0 cases, 0 deaths in every country? It's possible that's a stand-in for a trivial number or cases before burning out (near-0 is modeled as 0 given difficulty in approximating such complex dynamics) but the model is quite clearly suggesting this is the first and only wave.

 

I don't think this tool does what you think it does.

 

I think you are wrong. I referenced the part of the FAQs that explains the question I posed to try to avoid this response. You misinterpreted my reference to AIDS as well. The point of my original post was that experts recommend different actions for different threats. You said I was wrong and then repeated what I wrote in a specific instance (as opposed to general). I think you are fighting with idiots too much 8).

 

My point isn't to suggest that the model is saying we are eradicating the disease in 2 months of social distancing. My point was that expectations have been lowered to the point that the public is going to be disappointed in the future.

[Cigarbutt]

If the line of thinking is every life should be saved,then we'd be all put on an artificial mechanical heart at the end of life. Death is tragic by definition but there is clearly a diminishing return aspect if one thinks of the pandemics from a public policy point of view (NPV vs costs; those terms need to be defined, left and right or whatever).

 

If looking at survival rates vs age curves, a clear historical evolution has been the squaring (or rectangularization) of the curve. With CV, (from a public policy detached point of view), the area under the curve has been slightly diminished, highly skewed to the right side of the area under the curve. The public investments (basic social distancing to extreme quarantine and lock-down) have significant costs (for the whole population) and have contributed to mitigate the impact of the virus. I think it's reasonable to debate about the return on the investment, even if it is a hard question.

 

Personal note: In another life, I've had to meet a large number of people who fractured their hips (in this group, there are sometimes young healthy folks but most are older and sick and the fracture is often a signal that the end is near, sometimes very. Over time, I've often been amazed at how little attention family and 'friends' gave to the dying. There were some factors that drew unusual attention and inheritance was one of them. i guess media (or other) attention could have been another.

 

Edit: (versus the previous discussion about cause of death, bullet in the head etc)

Filling out the death certificate could be a conceptual causation challenge for many of those cases.

One of my colleagues used to write as the principal cause of death: "patient stopped breathing" and it used to drive public health officers crazy.

[Investor20]

 

May be Japan and Singapore will start shutdown.

 

India started shutdown on March 22nd.

 

See the numbers since March 22nd.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/india/

 

 

 

As opposed to?

 

As opposed to before March 22nd. 

 

Isnt the shutdown supposed to reduce cases and deaths, at least after 2 weeks?

[ERICOPOLY]

For sure Japan did not do massive testing or shutdowns. Their deaths till now are 94.

 

But italy did shutdowns with 17,000 deaths (adjusted to Japan population approximately double of 34,000)?

 

Is there a choice?

 

 

Perhaps bowing spreads the virus at a slower pace than kissing cheeks.

[Investor20]

For sure Japan did not do massive testing or shutdowns. Their deaths till now are 94.

 

But italy did shutdowns with 17,000 deaths (adjusted to Japan population approximately double of 34,000)?

 

Is there a choice?

 

 

Perhaps bowing spreads the virus at a slower pace than kissing cheeks.

 

Yes and kissing lips too with some closer relatives.

 

But masks may be one difference.  Most S East asian countries recommended masks from beginning.

[arcube]

 

May be Japan and Singapore will start shutdown.

 

India started shutdown on March 22nd.

 

See the numbers since March 22nd.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/india/

 

 

 

As opposed to?

 

As opposed to before March 22nd. 

 

Isnt the shutdown supposed to reduce cases and deaths, at least after 2 weeks?

 

That will make sense if the same amount of testing exists before and after. The shut down (one you are questioning) is supposed to flatten the curve and that will take time as testing ramps up. Not sure how aware are you about India. The country could be literally decimated if this shut down was not placed. It is one third the size of U.S. with 4x+ the population. It would have taken decades to recover. India paid a huge price for swine flu a few years ago. These are tough choices, not a menu of great choices to be exact. It is easy to shout in a forum that the know nothing epidemiologists are basically nerds with models, its another thing to be one where for years you are trained to make these choices from a menu of fking hard options. 

[Investor20]

 

May be Japan and Singapore will start shutdown.

 

India started shutdown on March 22nd.

 

See the numbers since March 22nd.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/india/

 

 

 

As opposed to?

 

As opposed to before March 22nd. 

 

Isnt the shutdown supposed to reduce cases and deaths, at least after 2 weeks?

 

That will make sense if the same amount of testing exists before and after. The shut down (one you are questioning) is supposed to flatten the curve and that will take time as testing ramps up. Not sure how aware are you about India. The country could be literally decimated if this shut down was not placed. It is one third the size of U.S. with 4x+ the population. It would have taken decades to recover. India paid a huge price for swine flu a few years ago. These are tough choices, not a menu of great choices to be exact. It is easy to shout in a forum that the know nothing epidemiologists are basically nerds with models, its another thing to be one where for years you are trained to make these choices from a menu of fking hard options.

 

Deaths are usually tested correctly.  Deaths also went up after 2 weeks of shutdown from 2 on March 22nd to 24 now.

 

How long is it supposed to take for this flatening to happen and why?