Guest Schwab711 Posted March 30, 2020 Posted March 30, 2020 Masks also prevent asymptomatic carriers from spreading the virus! Less effective for personal protection, more effective to prevent spread. Fauci said they are reconsidering guidance as production ramps up. The only reason why the recommendation are not changed already because none or too be had anyways and those that can be had need to go to the hospitals first. Agreed. Some public messaging is meant to avoid panic. You don't need masks/testing is a fancy way of saying that we don't have the ability to and it's ok. Guidance on masks/testing will change with ability.
cubsfan Posted March 30, 2020 Posted March 30, 2020 Truthtellers continue to disappear in China: https://www.nationalreview.com/magazine/2020/04/06/coronavirus-and-chinas-missing-citizen-journalists/?utm_source=recirc-desktop&utm_medium=homepage&utm_campaign=river&utm_content=featured-content-trending&utm_term=first
jondoug Posted March 30, 2020 Posted March 30, 2020 I wore a basic surgical mask on my last trip to Costco. My first time ever... I'm a white guy. My initial impression: the mask makes it more likely that I may end up touching my face. Human beings exhale humid air. Without a mask, humid air moves away from your face. With the mask on, humid air moves up and down the face through the openings around the mask. By the time I was done shopping, my brows and chin were wet and itchy. The natural urge is to wipe away the moisture with your bare hands. That's the wrongest thing you can possibly do right now. Glasses is another hassle. Mine were constantly fogging up. I had to take them off, wipe them down, and put them back on multiple times. That surely adds to the risk of the virus transfer. I have no idea how Asian people do it. Is there a secret technique I'm not aware of? The first time I tried it, I had the same issues you mentioned. The trick is to press hard at the top of the mask so that there is a good fit around your nose. Once you do that, there is no humid air coming up towards the face/glasses at the top and no issues.
Liberty Posted March 30, 2020 Posted March 30, 2020 Masks also prevent asymptomatic carriers from spreading the virus! Less effective for personal protection, more effective to prevent spread. Fauci said they are reconsidering guidance as production ramps up. The only reason why the recommendation are not changed already because none or too be had anyways and those that can be had need to go to the hospitals first. They should still be transparent with the population about it, because it'll take longer for them to turn around when they become available if the education about them isn't already made. It'll take a while for people to get used to the and to put them on and take them off and wear them effectively, gotta train people, just like we did over the past month with hand-washing and social distancing and touching our faces and surface contact, etc.
Liberty Posted March 30, 2020 Posted March 30, 2020 I wore a basic surgical mask on my last trip to Costco. My first time ever... I'm a white guy. My initial impression: the mask makes it more likely that I may end up touching my face. Human beings exhale humid air. Without a mask, humid air moves away from your face. With the mask on, humid air moves up and down the face through the openings around the mask. By the time I was done shopping, my brows and chin were wet and itchy. The natural urge is to wipe away the moisture with your bare hands. That's the wrongest thing you can possibly do right now. Glasses is another hassle. Mine were constantly fogging up. I had to take them off, wipe them down, and put them back on multiple times. That surely adds to the risk of the virus transfer. I have no idea how Asian people do it. Is there a secret technique I'm not aware of? I think the key words here are "my first time ever". First time ever wearing contact lenses, or I'm guessing high heels or makeup (never worn any, but I can imagine), or even wearing glasses... You get used to it, you get better at it, you find tricks, your brain stops noticing it and puts it in the auto-pilot category.
mcliu Posted March 31, 2020 Posted March 31, 2020 Well the Chief Doctor of US (referring to Trump) just said it at the briefing - he'd consider asking all Americans to wear a mask (for a brief period of time). I am starting to feel the US might do better than Canada over the long run - Abbot's 5 min test; the innovation to disinfect masks ; self-swap to lessen demand on PPE -- vaccines, therapeutics .... yes Trump had a slower start, but i think once everybody else agreed to do this, that innovation is there to solve this very quickly. Canada feels to be the opposite. Yeah US has really ramped up and put private sector to work. Canada was extremely late to close borders and testing is falling behind. Hopefully our curve is later and US can bail us out.
Liberty Posted March 31, 2020 Posted March 31, 2020 https://hbr.org/2020/03/lessons-from-italys-response-to-coronavirus Also: Everyone wants to debate whether the "noble lie" is *evil*, but using the world's institutional mouthpieces for coordination to lie to the public about how they could protect themselves during phase 1 of a long-haul battle with a deadly pandemic is just so beautifully *stupid* Also, Flexport has been doing great work. Their expertise is global supply chains, and their foundation has been bringing PPE and masks to frontline workers: https://twitter.com/typesfast/status/1242497613426909184?s=20 Today we are doing a big fundraiser for http://Flexport.org to support our efforts to ship masks to healthcare workers on the front lines. The campaign is being organized by the amazing @EdwardNorton and anchored with HUGE $1M donations from @paulg and @Schwarzenegger! https://flexport.org/
Guest oakwood42 Posted March 31, 2020 Posted March 31, 2020 Truthtellers continue to disappear in China: https://www.nationalreview.com/magazine/2020/04/06/coronavirus-and-chinas-missing-citizen-journalists/?utm_source=recirc-desktop&utm_medium=homepage&utm_campaign=river&utm_content=featured-content-trending&utm_term=first Thank you for sharing!
finetrader Posted March 31, 2020 Posted March 31, 2020 DIY Mask, You can make them with the look you want. Pink, rainbow, Heavy metal... What’s not to like? https://m.facebook.com/plugins/video.php?height=400&width=224&href=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.facebook.com%2Fodiviofficial%2Fvideos%2F807790806395450%2F
LC Posted March 31, 2020 Posted March 31, 2020 Truthtellers continue to disappear in China: https://www.nationalreview.com/magazine/2020/04/06/coronavirus-and-chinas-missing-citizen-journalists/?utm_source=recirc-desktop&utm_medium=homepage&utm_campaign=river&utm_content=featured-content-trending&utm_term=first Thank you for sharing! Ditto. And screw the CPC.
Liberty Posted March 31, 2020 Posted March 31, 2020 https://scitechdaily.com/mit-posts-free-plans-online-for-an-emergency-ventilator-that-can-be-built-for-100/
EliG Posted March 31, 2020 Posted March 31, 2020 @tobi started wearing a mask but he is having some issues "Practical question though: How do you make your glasses not fog up?" Billionaires.... they are just like the rest of us. :)
DocSnowball Posted March 31, 2020 Posted March 31, 2020 New model published in Lancet ID based on China, Diamond princess and those who came out of China to the rest of the world, revising fatality rates down. Attached fatality rates table. Anyone know how good their "estimate" is in making the leap from "cases" to those who are potentially "infected". Overall quite reassuring if you're under 50. NYTimes reports that White House will release the models they are using today as well. Will be interesting to see. https://www.thelancet.com/action/showPdf?pii=S1473-3099%2820%2930243-7 A second healthcare system and population based projection here from IHMI: This is the best modeling I have seen for COVID-19. It models the burden on hospital resources and deaths for the US and for each state. NY is predicted to peak on 6 April, and the US as a whole in mid-April. Although there are wide confidence intervals, the number are sobering. They predict about 80K deaths. The IHME has been the lead on the global burden of disease study – the definitive ongoing study of disease burden (mortality & disability) for more than 350 diseases and 84 risk factors in 195 countries (https://vizhub.healthdata.org/gbd-compare/). https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections Lancet_ID_Table_1.pdf
Jurgis Posted March 31, 2020 Posted March 31, 2020 There is some case/death growth slowdown across countries due to lockdown/shelter-in-place/social distancing/etc. Assuming this trend continues, did we see the market bottom at SP500 ~2300?
LC Posted March 31, 2020 Posted March 31, 2020 Assuming this trend continues, did we see the market bottom at SP500 ~2300? If your assumption holds, then I would guess yes but only from the fallout of the virus itself. What happens if we see 30% unemployment, massive decrease in Q1 earnings numbers, and a slow Q2/Q3 of getting people back to work? I don't know the answer to that situation. But the market is forwards looking so maybe that is priced in?
Liberty Posted March 31, 2020 Posted March 31, 2020 https://www.washingtonpost.com/national/health-science/desperate-for-medical-equipment-states-encounter-a-beleaguered-national-stockpile/2020/03/28/1f4f9a0a-6f82-11ea-aa80-c2470c6b2034_story.html on Feb 5, HHS Secretary Azar requested $2 billion to buy supplies like respirator masks for the national stockpile. That request was cut 75% by the Trump administration
Liberty Posted March 31, 2020 Posted March 31, 2020 WAPO: "CDC considering recommending general public wear face coverings in public" https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/cdc-considering-recommending-general-public-wear-face-coverings-in-public/2020/03/30/6a3e495c-7280-11ea-87da-77a8136c1a6d_story.html Officials at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention are considering altering the official guidance to encourage people to take measures to cover their faces amid the coronavirus pandemic, according to a federal official who spoke on the condition of anonymity because it is an ongoing matter of internal discussion and nothing has been finalized. Also: "Captain of aircraft carrier with growing coronavirus outbreak pleads for help from Navy" https://www.sfchronicle.com/bayarea/article/Exclusive-Captain-of-aircraft-carrier-with-15167883.php
Dalal.Holdings Posted March 31, 2020 Posted March 31, 2020 https://www.washingtonpost.com/national/health-science/desperate-for-medical-equipment-states-encounter-a-beleaguered-national-stockpile/2020/03/28/1f4f9a0a-6f82-11ea-aa80-c2470c6b2034_story.html on Feb 5, HHS Secretary Azar requested $2 billion to buy supplies like respirator masks for the national stockpile. That request was cut 75% by the Trump administration "An ounce of prevention..." or another useless saying (for those who will now end up spending pounds and pounds on the cure). Unfortunately a lot of innocent people (restaurant workers, etc) will end up paying for much of the cost, let alone those who lose family members/themselves to this tragic pandemic. Another useless data point for the "nothing could be done anyway" and "we can't blame our leaders" (a.k.a. "keep politics out of this discussion please") crowd. Carry on.
Dalal.Holdings Posted March 31, 2020 Posted March 31, 2020 New model published in Lancet ID based on China, Diamond princess and those who came out of China to the rest of the world, revising fatality rates down. Attached fatality rates table. Anyone know how good their "estimate" is in making the leap from "cases" to those who are potentially "infected". Overall quite reassuring if you're under 50. NYTimes reports that White House will release the models they are using today as well. Will be interesting to see. https://www.thelancet.com/action/showPdf?pii=S1473-3099%2820%2930243-7 A second healthcare system and population based projection here from IHMI: This is the best modeling I have seen for COVID-19. It models the burden on hospital resources and deaths for the US and for each state. NY is predicted to peak on 6 April, and the US as a whole in mid-April. Although there are wide confidence intervals, the number are sobering. They predict about 80K deaths. The IHME has been the lead on the global burden of disease study – the definitive ongoing study of disease burden (mortality & disability) for more than 350 diseases and 84 risk factors in 195 countries (https://vizhub.healthdata.org/gbd-compare/). https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections So their best guess for CFR is 1.38% (or more than an order of magnitude worse than the flu). Based on that, the number of patients requiring ICU beds is probably 10x or more (10-15% of infections)--hence the concern about healthcare strain and how this is not "just like the flu".
Liberty Posted March 31, 2020 Posted March 31, 2020 https://www.washingtonpost.com/national/health-science/desperate-for-medical-equipment-states-encounter-a-beleaguered-national-stockpile/2020/03/28/1f4f9a0a-6f82-11ea-aa80-c2470c6b2034_story.html on Feb 5, HHS Secretary Azar requested $2 billion to buy supplies like respirator masks for the national stockpile. That request was cut 75% by the Trump administration "An ounce of prevention..." or another useless saying (for those who will now end up spending pounds and pounds on the cure). Unfortunately a lot of innocent people (restaurant workers, etc) will end up paying for much of the cost, let alone those who lose family members/themselves to this tragic pandemic. Another useless data point for the "nothing could be done anyway" and "we can't blame our leaders" (a.k.a. "keep politics out of this discussion please") crowd. Carry on. They're constantly trying out new narratives to shift the blame elsewhere. We've seen the "blame the governors" and "blame china", and I've seen that recently they've been thinking of trying "the impeachment distracted Trump from focusing on the virus". Just making stuff up to pass the buck, holding the president to the standards of a child rather than someone who should be a competent executive able to deal with multiple complex problems, which is the whole job in the first place..
Dalal.Holdings Posted March 31, 2020 Posted March 31, 2020 https://www.washingtonpost.com/national/health-science/desperate-for-medical-equipment-states-encounter-a-beleaguered-national-stockpile/2020/03/28/1f4f9a0a-6f82-11ea-aa80-c2470c6b2034_story.html on Feb 5, HHS Secretary Azar requested $2 billion to buy supplies like respirator masks for the national stockpile. That request was cut 75% by the Trump administration "An ounce of prevention..." or another useless saying (for those who will now end up spending pounds and pounds on the cure). Unfortunately a lot of innocent people (restaurant workers, etc) will end up paying for much of the cost, let alone those who lose family members/themselves to this tragic pandemic. Another useless data point for the "nothing could be done anyway" and "we can't blame our leaders" (a.k.a. "keep politics out of this discussion please") crowd. Carry on. They're constantly trying out new narratives to shift the blame elsewhere. We've seen the "blame the governors" and "blame china", and I've seen that recently they've been thinking of trying "the impeachment distracted Trump from focusing on the virus". Just making stuff up to pass the buck, holding the president to the standards of a child rather than someone who should be a competent executive able to deal with multiple complex problems, which is the whole job in the first place.. Don't lose too much faith in the intellectual capacity of all of our leaders though. After all, several members of Congress saw the writing on the wall after a late January Intelligence briefing and showed it with their investment decisions shortly thereafter. They just chose not to speak up because it might scare people/markets which would then anger the child in the White House (after all, at that time, the child could still use the "How is your 401k doing?" campaign line). What a great state of affairs we have.
Liberty Posted March 31, 2020 Posted March 31, 2020 https://stratechery.com/2020/unmasking-twitter/ Also: With exponential growth, you cannot confidently draw conclusions from regional differences. A single superspreader can infect hundreds of others. If that's one of the first few cases in a region, the disease can be 10x worse there, just due to a single quirk of bad luck.
Liberty Posted March 31, 2020 Posted March 31, 2020 https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-31/hospitals-tell-doctors-they-ll-be-fired-if-they-talk-to-press Hospitals are threatening to fire health-care workers who publicize their working conditions during the coronavirus pandemic -- and have in some cases followed through. Ming Lin, an emergency room physician in Washington state, said he was told Friday he was out of a job because he’d given an interview to a newspaper about a Facebook post detailing what he believed to be inadequate protective equipment and testing. In Chicago, a nurse was fired after emailing colleagues that she wanted to wear a more protective mask while on duty. In New York, the NYU Langone Health system has warned employees they could be terminated if they talk to the media without authorization. “Hospitals are muzzling nurses and other health-care workers in an attempt to preserve their image,” said Ruth Schubert, a spokeswoman for the Washington State Nurses Association. “It is outrageous.”
Liberty Posted March 31, 2020 Posted March 31, 2020 Michael Osterholm, Director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy at the University of Minnesota, interviewed by Peter Attia: https://peterattiamd.com/michaelosterholm/
EliG Posted March 31, 2020 Posted March 31, 2020 FDA authorizes two-minute antibody testing kit to detect coronavirus https://www.axios.com/fda-coronavirus-two-minute-testing-kit-bodysphere-a665429d-488d-4edf-bd36-9180e2a06e4c.html
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