Coronavirus

[Liberty]

In Japan they had no shelter in place and only masks, cleaning hands and disinfecting and they have very low Covid deaths.

 

I also thought it was very interesting what Cuomo said.  Why is the administration only ordering proper masks to be produced for front-line workers?  Trump is visiting one such plant this Friday, and Trump had to be told that he must wear a mask (and this no doubt is because Pence showed up at Mayo without one, and claimed he didn't know about their mask requirement).

 

What people who talk about places without lockdown fail to understand is that that boat had sailed for the US. If you had strict hygiene and masks and people who understood things very early on, did good contact tracing, R0 will stay low enough that you can contain things. But if you don't and it just runs wild and exponentially double and double and double for a while, you are past the point where you can compare yourself to Japan or South Korea or Taiwan or  New Zealand or whatever.

 

You don't get to just decide you want these countries' results without having done what they did.

[Liberty]

Thread on FOX News' coverage of COVID19 over time:

 

[Cigarbutt]

Cross-country comparisons can be useful but the point about previous paths taken during an exponential phase is relevant.

Social "restraints" measures have decreased the spread and lifting those measures will cause various levels of resurgence activity. The trade-off lies between the "costs" of the containment measures and the "costs" of re-opening the economy.

The following two are useful inputs (see what happened before and try to see what could guide policies going forward):

https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamanetworkopen/fullarticle/2766229?utm_source=For_The_Media&utm_medium=referral&utm_campaign=ftm_links&utm_term=051820

https://www.healthaffairs.org/doi/pdf/10.1377/hlthaff.2020.00608

 

The first study (when analyzed and related death rates are obtained and compared) suggests a relatively small positive impact of the differential measures taken between Iowa and Illinois. The second study shows the potential of limiting exponential morbidity and mortality when applied effectively and early. Both studies have significant limitations and have observational qualities. As numerous other studies show, one of the risks is extrapolating conclusions from limited data and interpreting causal effects when, in fact, the findings are simply correlations. This is a frequent flaw now with limited peer reviews and people coming up with "explanations" or risk factors for various clinical findings which are simply markers and not meaningful variables to alter.

 

Pressures will keep building up for opening (for both valid and non-valid reasons) and it may be best to try to optimize the process going forward.

 

To assess the validity and effectiveness, policy and measures depend on context. As an analogy, the application of QE (there he goes again) makes a lot of sense from a liquidit standpoint. However, recognizing the significant known and unknown consequences including asset price inflation and high leverage from the chronic application of such acute measures when asset prices and leverage were high to start with simply introduces inter-temporal imbalances that simply take longer to correct, at some point. To tie the analogy to COVID-19, trying to maintain radical lockdown or similar measures makes little sense once the spread has occurred. This is the kick the can down the road era. Healing will eventually happen.

[LC]

Purple state problems:

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/waffle-house-shooter-was-told-wear-mask-colorado-police-say-n1210951

[ERICOPOLY]

Purple state problems:

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/waffle-house-shooter-was-told-wear-mask-colorado-police-say-n1210951

 

Life comes before Liberty in the Constitution.  Selfish assholes won’t wear a mask to save lives of others.

 

I see it in my own county.  Few are wearing masks in a busy store and these guys are the ones screaming the loudest about the California governors orders — they fail to see that they are driving R0 higher and freedom further away.

[Viking]

In Japan they had no shelter in place and only masks, cleaning hands and disinfecting and they have very low Covid deaths.

 

I also thought it was very interesting what Cuomo said.  Why is the administration only ordering proper masks to be produced for front-line workers?  Trump is visiting one such plant this Friday, and Trump had to be told that he must wear a mask (and this no doubt is because Pence showed up at Mayo without one, and claimed he didn't know about their mask requirement).

 

What people who talk about places without lockdown fail to understand is that that boat had sailed for the US. If you had strict hygiene and masks and people who understood things very early on, did good contact tracing, R0 will stay low enough that you can contain things. But if you don't and it just runs wild and exponentially double and double and double for a while, you are past the point where you can compare yourself to Japan or South Korea or Taiwan or  New Zealand or whatever.

 

You don't get to just decide you want these countries' results without having done what they did.

 

I think people mis-understand what Japan has done to deal with the virus. They issued state of emergency that shut down large swaths of their economy. People stayed at home (they were asked to do things not required... different culture?). When you look at the economic numbers you can see the impact the virus had on individual countries.

 

Japan's economy falls into recession in Q1

- https://www.marketwatch.com/story/japans-economy-falls-into-recession-in-q1-2020-05-17

 

TOKYO -- Japan's economy fell into a recession by one common definition in the first quarter of 2020, with worse expected in the current quarter.

 

The world's third-largest economy after the U.S. and China shrank an annualized 3.4% in the January-March period, following a 7.3% contraction in the previous quarter when the national sales tax rose to 10% from 8%. Two straight quarters of contraction is one definition of a recession.

 

...The coronavirus pandemic pushed down spending by households and companies and kept tourists away. Private consumption fell 0.7% on quarter as people refrained from leisure and dining out to avoid infection. Capital expenditures by companies dropped 0.5%.

 

Economists expect that the economy shrank at an annualized pace of 20% or more in the current quarter. Prime Minister Shinzo Abe declared a national state of emergency in April, which led many stores and restaurants to close. Most foreign visitors are barred from entering the country` and domestic travel has mostly stopped.

 

Last week Mr. Abe lifted the state of emergency in 39 of 47 prefectures. It still applies in Tokyo and Osaka but is expected to end nationwide in the next week or two.

 

"Sharp declines in private consumption, housing investment and capital spending are inevitable after April due to the state of emergency and the subsequent request for closing businesses," said Taro Saito, an economist at NLI Research Institute.

 

[Liberty]

Purple state problems:

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/waffle-house-shooter-was-told-wear-mask-colorado-police-say-n1210951

 

Life comes before Liberty in the Constitution.  Selfish assholes won’t wear a mask to save lives of others.

 

I see it in my own county.  Few are wearing masks in a busy store and these guys are the ones screaming the loudest about the California governors orders — they fail to see that they are driving R0 higher and freedom further away.

 

People generally aren't bad, they tend to have good intentions. But when there's as much disinformation and mismanagement and confusing communications about the issue as in the US, and when a health issue gets politicized, people end up believing what they're told (by their tribe, now that it's political) and act accordingly.

 

It was the most obvious thing in that world that a crisis like this would unite everybody and give them common cause and shared self-interest, but this was squandered in the US.

[Viking]

And what is Japan doing with schools? Full lock down since early March. Doesn’t look to me like they are ‘just wearing masks...’

 

Japanese government prods schools to partially reopen by grade as pandemic eases (May 2 article)

https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2020/05/02/national/japan-schools-partial-reopening-coronavirus/#.XsVSzi8iehA

 

The education ministry has presented the option of schools reopening for some grades only amid the ongoing coronavirus pandemic, with priority given to classes for first- and sixth-graders at elementary schools as well as third-year students at junior high schools.

 

The proposal was made to local education boards on Friday. Most school across the country have been closed since early March amid the outbreak.

[ERICOPOLY]

It’s not just schools but daycares now that summer break is almost here.  Are people meant to leave the 5 yr old at home while they go back to work?

[Liberty]

Snopes looking into the anti-lockdown protests: https://www.snopes.com/news/2020/05/20/michigan-lockdown-protesters/

[ERICOPOLY]

It’s relatively easier for Japan to stay open if (in general) fewer moms were working to begin with.

[Gregmal]

Snopes looking into the anti-lockdown protests: https://www.snopes.com/news/2020/05/20/michigan-lockdown-protesters/

 

Ha! Ive been waiting for them to try to bridge this. The playbook is all too obvious by now.

 

Protestors = white supremist Trump supporters. Thats where they'll take this. Just wait.

[rb]

I don't know. But swastikas do have a tendency to show up at these things don't they?

[Guest]

https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2020-opinion-coronavirus-europe-lockdown-excess-deaths-recession/

 

"But, as our next chart shows, there’s little correlation between the severity of a nation’s restrictions and whether it managed to curb excess fatalities — a measure that looks at the overall number of deaths compared with normal trends."

[ERICOPOLY]

Trump summoned them out from under their rocks with his April 17th tweet of “Liberate Michigan!”.  In doing so, he was blaming the Governors for stay-at-home policy.  Trump of course also had a stay at home policy of his own.  It most definitely is motivated by his 2020 campaign — just a coincidence that Michigan is an important state to win and the Democratic governor gave the convention speech this year?  She is being groomed by the party and would be an ideal running mate for Biden.  She is like a brainy Sarah Palin. The other candidates like Warren and Klobuchar need to retain their seats in Congress for the party.  Trump even directed Pence not to answer her calls as he has been scheming to undermine Michigan’s success.

 

 

[Investor20]

In Japan they had no shelter in place and only masks, cleaning hands and disinfecting and they have very low Covid deaths.

 

I also thought it was very interesting what Cuomo said.  Why is the administration only ordering proper masks to be produced for front-line workers?  Trump is visiting one such plant this Friday, and Trump had to be told that he must wear a mask (and this no doubt is because Pence showed up at Mayo without one, and claimed he didn't know about their mask requirement).

 

What people who talk about places without lockdown fail to understand is that that boat had sailed for the US. If you had strict hygiene and masks and people who understood things very early on, did good contact tracing, R0 will stay low enough that you can contain things. But if you don't and it just runs wild and exponentially double and double and double for a while, you are past the point where you can compare yourself to Japan or South Korea or Taiwan or  New Zealand or whatever.

 

You don't get to just decide you want these countries' results without having done what they did.

 

The data cited is for NY which had high infection rate.

[Gregmal]

I don't know. But swastikas do have a tendency to show up at these things don't they?

 

I dont know, but it seems "people" show up to these things. Sometimes there is a heavy skew, but other times there isn't. Here, it's pretty widespread. But hey, when you have a camera, and can take your snapshots "opportunistically" and then present the narrative to people relying on the "news", yea.... but you guys know this. Its just convenient when it fits the desired narrative.

[RichardGibbons]

One interesting contrast for the crowd who believes that the whole world is out to get Trump is the reaction to Doug Ford, the premier of Ontario. When Ford was elected, people were literally calling him "Donald Trump of the North" (for the obvious reasons: a populist, conservative, not too bright, loves applause....)

 

Nevertheless, in general, the media has been lauding Ford for his efforts on COVID-19. Most of the reporting is basically, "wow, this guy can actually deal with a crisis and govern."

 

It's an interesting contrast, particularly considering that, Canada's media is to the left of America's.

 

I think the main difference--to those who actually care about objective reality--is that this crisis has revealed Trump's incompetence. It's essentially a  crisis tailor-made to fit Trump's weaknesses. In contrast, it's revealed Ford's competence and perhaps a difference in willingness to listen to experts.

[Liberty]

Snopes looking into the anti-lockdown protests: https://www.snopes.com/news/2020/05/20/michigan-lockdown-protesters/

 

Ha! Ive been waiting for them to try to bridge this. The playbook is all too obvious by now.

 

Protestors = white supremist Trump supporters. Thats where they'll take this. Just wait.

 

No amount of evidence would convince tribal magical thinkers like you, so it's moot. These guys can come out and say that this is who they are and why they do what they do and you wouldn't believe it if it was inconvenient to you.

 

Obviously this doesn't mean that everybody who protests or agrees with the protests knows about everything or is part of the same clique, but it's still interesting to look at the leadership of these groups and see who organized things, right?

[Liberty]

Trump summoned them out from under their rocks with his April 17th tweet of “Liberate Michigan!”.  In doing so, he was blaming the Governors for stay-at-home policy.  Trump of course also had a stay at home policy of his own.  It most definitely is motivated by his 2020 campaign — just a coincidence that Michigan is an important state to win and the Democratic governor gave the convention speech this year?  She is being groomed by the party and would be an ideal running mate for Biden.  She is like a brainy Sarah Palin. The other candidates like Warren and Klobuchar need to retain their seats in Congress for the party.  Trump even directed Pence not to answer her calls as he has been scheming to undermine Michigan’s success.

 

This is part of Trump's M.O.

 

He says a thing and its opposite all the time, depending on how the wind is blowing that day, so that later he can cherry pick something he said and say "see, I was right" and then gaslight us about the other thing ("I never said that, I didnt mean it, it was sarcasm, fake news, etc").

 

[Investor20]

https://www.yahoo.com/lifestyle/cdc-coronavirus-mainly-spreads-through-persontoperson-contact-and-does-not-spread-easily-on-contaminated-surfaces-153317029.html

CDC: Coronavirus mainly spreads through person-to-person contact and 'does not spread easily' on contaminated surfaces

 

“Based on the epidemiology, we know that the main way this virus is infecting people is from direct contact with other infected people,” Adalja says.

“Contaminated surfaces play some role, but it’s likely much smaller.” It also makes sense, too, he says:

“This is a respiratory virus, and respiratory viruses largely spread through breathing in infected respiratory droplets.”

 

The person to person contact can be minimized by not hugging, kissing, hand shaking, etc.

 

The respiratory droplets breathing can be reduced by masks, giving safe distance and just being outside.

 

All these can be done without shutting people in their homes.

 

In Japan, the law wont let the government mandate shelter in place.  So the government there had to request people to follow guidelines, and shut down schools.  But still they could not mandate kids not to play outside. People who could afford to shut their shops did.  People who couldnt afford to shut down ran their businesses with safeguards.  That is a much better way to treat your citizens.

 

But above two reasons given in the article for transmission, person-person contact, droplets can be controlled while working.

 

https://time.com/5830612/japan-coronavirus-golden-week/

Why Many Japanese People Are Ignoring Their Government’s Pleas to Stay Home During a Major Holiday Break

 

"Legally, the state of emergency can only involve requests for compliance. Violators face no penalties. There are few incentives to close shops."

 

 

[Gregmal]

Snopes looking into the anti-lockdown protests: https://www.snopes.com/news/2020/05/20/michigan-lockdown-protesters/

 

Ha! Ive been waiting for them to try to bridge this. The playbook is all too obvious by now.

 

Protestors = white supremist Trump supporters. Thats where they'll take this. Just wait.

 

No amount of evidence would convince tribal magical thinkers like you, so it's moot. These guys can come out and say that this is who they are and why they do what they do and you wouldn't believe it if it was inconvenient to you.

 

Obviously this doesn't mean that everybody who protests or agrees with the protests knows about everything or is part of the same clique, but it's still interesting to look at the leadership of these groups and see who organized things, right?

 

Is this a joke? I have criticized Trump plenty and am easily one of the more balanced here with regard to criticism and blame. What % of your postings are balanced? What about ERICOPOLY's?  Up until you guys got some pushback it was basically just dozens of pages of you posting Trump bashing Twitter links and Eric and a few others following on with more complaining...

 

But yea, continuously revert to the Obama playbook of identity politics. The "tribal thinkers" and whatnot. The playbook is old. It was not just yesterday where some where whining about phantom "personal attacks" but now? Oh look here... You guys make it too easy.

[cubsfan]

Florida Governor goes out of his way to keep sick CV elderly OUT OF NURSING HOMES, while idiot Governor Cuomo jams the INFECTED ELDERLY

INTO NURSING HOMES - causing thousands of deaths..

 

Yet, the Fake News and Liberals fawn over Cuomo, while they crucify DeSantis.

 

https://www.dailywire.com/news/ny-health-dept-admits-to-undercounting-nursing-home-deaths-as-cuomo-scandal-worsens

 

Democrat-controlled New York has reportedly admitted to knowingly undercounting the number of deaths suffered in nursing homes from the coronavirus after the facilities were devastated by Democrat Governor Andrew Cuomo’s policy that forced them to take patients who were infected with the virus.

 

Good to see you guys still fawning over Cuomo!

[Gregmal]

Florida Governor goes out of his way to keep sick CV elderly OUT OF NURSING HOMES, while idiot Governor Cuomo jams the INFECTED ELDERLY

INTO NURSING HOMES - causing thousands of deaths..

 

Yet, the Fake News and Liberals fawn over Cuomo, while they crucify DeSantis.

 

https://www.dailywire.com/news/ny-health-dept-admits-to-undercounting-nursing-home-deaths-as-cuomo-scandal-worsens

 

Democrat-controlled New York has reportedly admitted to knowingly undercounting the number of deaths suffered in nursing homes from the coronavirus after the facilities were devastated by Democrat Governor Andrew Cuomo’s policy that forced them to take patients who were infected with the virus.

 

Good to see you guys still fawning over Cuomo!

 

Remember "President Cuomo"...aint gonna have any constituents left if he keeps killing them.

[Liberty]

https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2018/02/180226122548.htm

 

"Vitamin D can't be metabolized without sufficient magnesium levels, meaning Vitamin D remains stored and inactive for as many as 50 percent of Americans."

 

Something to keep in mind related to the previous vitamin D stuff I posted...