beaufort Posted May 8, 2020 Posted May 8, 2020 For healthy populations, the virus will resemble the typical flu. Yeah, sure developing countries have healthy populations. They are just crushing this chart: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_life_expectancy Please all go to Africa and work in subsistence farming. You'll be so healthy. Just leave all your stuff for people who decide to stay and suffer in the first world countries. They need it. ::) Healthy with respect to blood pressure and diabetes particularly is what I meant. And those are key issues for this virus as I understand it.
Jurgis Posted May 8, 2020 Posted May 8, 2020 For healthy populations, the virus will resemble the typical flu. Yeah, sure developing countries have healthy populations. They are just crushing this chart: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_life_expectancy Please all go to Africa and work in subsistence farming. You'll be so healthy. Just leave all your stuff for people who decide to stay and suffer in the first world countries. They need it. ::) Healthy with respect to blood pressure and diabetes particularly is what I meant. And those are key issues for this virus as I understand it. Diabetes by country: https://www.indexmundi.com/facts/indicators/SH.STA.DIAB.ZS/rankings Hypertension prevalence by country: https://www.who.int/gho/ncd/risk_factors/blood_pressure_prevalence/en/ Hypertension deaths by country: https://www.worldlifeexpectancy.com/cause-of-death/hypertension/by-country/
beaufort Posted May 8, 2020 Posted May 8, 2020 For healthy populations, the virus will resemble the typical flu. Yeah, sure developing countries have healthy populations. They are just crushing this chart: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_life_expectancy Please all go to Africa and work in subsistence farming. You'll be so healthy. Just leave all your stuff for people who decide to stay and suffer in the first world countries. They need it. ::) Healthy with respect to blood pressure and diabetes particularly is what I meant. And those are key issues for this virus as I understand it. Diabetes by country: https://www.indexmundi.com/facts/indicators/SH.STA.DIAB.ZS/rankings Hypertension prevalence by country: https://www.who.int/gho/ncd/risk_factors/blood_pressure_prevalence/en/ Hypertension deaths by country: https://www.worldlifeexpectancy.com/cause-of-death/hypertension/by-country/ Here is my source for rural Africans as I initially mentioned: https://nutritionfacts.org/2017/04/06/high-blood-pressure-normal-but-not-natural/ I don't know who (population) your source includes. In another article, the same source, Dr. Michael Greger, says the same thing applies to rural Chinese. The key point is a largely vegan whole food diet, with meat a couple of times a year, leads to the good outcomes in blood pressure and diabetes. That is not what rich countries typically have. If Africans and Chinese adopt our diets, they will have the same results. The results cited by Dr. Greger refer to rural Africans with traditional diet.
Liberty Posted May 8, 2020 Posted May 8, 2020 “ Trump: Katie, she tested very good for a long period of time and then all of the sudden today she tested positive... This is why the whole concept of tests aren’t necessarily great” ???
Castanza Posted May 8, 2020 Posted May 8, 2020 For healthy populations, the virus will resemble the typical flu. Yeah, sure developing countries have healthy populations. They are just crushing this chart: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_life_expectancy Please all go to Africa and work in subsistence farming. You'll be so healthy. Just leave all your stuff for people who decide to stay and suffer in the first world countries. They need it. ::) Healthy with respect to blood pressure and diabetes particularly is what I meant. And those are key issues for this virus as I understand it. Diabetes by country: https://www.indexmundi.com/facts/indicators/SH.STA.DIAB.ZS/rankings Hypertension prevalence by country: https://www.who.int/gho/ncd/risk_factors/blood_pressure_prevalence/en/ Hypertension deaths by country: https://www.worldlifeexpectancy.com/cause-of-death/hypertension/by-country/ Here is my source for rural Africans as I initially mentioned: https://nutritionfacts.org/2017/04/06/high-blood-pressure-normal-but-not-natural/ I don't know who (population) your source includes. In another article, the same source, Dr. Michael Greger, says the same thing applies to rural Chinese. The key point is a largely vegan whole food diet, with meat a couple of times a year, leads to the good outcomes in blood pressure and diabetes. That is not what rich countries typically have. If Africans and Chinese adopt our diets, they will have the same results. The results cited by Dr. Greger refer to rural Africans with traditional diet. FWIW my sister lives in rural Laos and the diabetes rates are crazy high because of all the sticky rice.
Jurgis Posted May 8, 2020 Posted May 8, 2020 For healthy populations, the virus will resemble the typical flu. Yeah, sure developing countries have healthy populations. They are just crushing this chart: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_life_expectancy Please all go to Africa and work in subsistence farming. You'll be so healthy. Just leave all your stuff for people who decide to stay and suffer in the first world countries. They need it. ::) Healthy with respect to blood pressure and diabetes particularly is what I meant. And those are key issues for this virus as I understand it. Diabetes by country: https://www.indexmundi.com/facts/indicators/SH.STA.DIAB.ZS/rankings Hypertension prevalence by country: https://www.who.int/gho/ncd/risk_factors/blood_pressure_prevalence/en/ Hypertension deaths by country: https://www.worldlifeexpectancy.com/cause-of-death/hypertension/by-country/ Here is my source for rural Africans as I initially mentioned: https://nutritionfacts.org/2017/04/06/high-blood-pressure-normal-but-not-natural/ I don't know who (population) your source includes. In another article, the same source, Dr. Michael Greger, says the same thing applies to rural Chinese. The key point is a largely vegan whole food diet, with meat a couple of times a year, leads to the good outcomes in blood pressure and diabetes. That is not what rich countries typically have. If Africans and Chinese adopt our diets, they will have the same results. The results cited by Dr. Greger refer to rural Africans with traditional diet. So you pick a random nutritionist blog and then make claims while disregarding the statistical data across countries? I guess that's par for the course here. Edit: That nutritionist blog cites an article in prestigious Lancet. I clicked the link. Well, yes. It is an article published in Lancet. On 5 January 1929. Great supporting data. :-X BTW, I don't have much issues with dietary suggestions in the blog. They might be totally fine.
Guest cherzeca Posted May 8, 2020 Posted May 8, 2020 covid and nursing homes: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1ETm51GayRjlnoaRVtUOWfkolEeAQZ-zPhXkCbVe4_ik/htmlview?usp=sharing&pru=AAABchoCoXE*a4lY6PnWEvBKbO83XF1Rqg
patience_and_focus Posted May 8, 2020 Posted May 8, 2020 Do you guys ever wonder why deaths per capita are higher in the "first world" countries? We have crappy diets, resulting in first world problems like high blood pressure, diabetes etc. In rural China and rural Africa, people have 110/70 blood pressure well into their old age. In the western world, with processed foods and high salt and high sugar, we have extremely high blood pressure and diabetes rates very early in life. Our bodies don't fight off viruses as well as healthy people. My view is it's largely diet based. All, the above and second and third world countries also have reporting issues, plus the epidemic has not run its. course yet. There are reports of bad situations in Ecuador (Quito) and Brazil but numbers are hard to come by. While these and other points mentioned above are all valid, I highly doubt they can fully explain the huge discrepancy between the developed and the developing countries. And especially considering the big factor that should make situations worse in developing countries -- their lack of good healthcare systems. I do wonder whether how some countries do not care much about this virus and this is being reflected in recognizing/reporting the COVID death numbers. My wife's coworker (they work in healthcare), who has families in Bangladesh, told her yesterday that while COVID is spreading there, people are more worried about going hungry than the virus. Suppose your people, media, and government do not really recognize this virus as anything novel or serious... In such countries, even if people die due to COVID or related illness, they might not warrant much attention and won't be tracked like some doomsday counter. In that sense, is COVID another "first world problem"? Yup. I think this is on the money. Media coverage and fear mongering have made this what it is. Its now widely recognized that this was here much earlier than some people thought, and guess what? Life was totally normal and folks got on with their normal business and the economy was humming along just fine. So yes, its a shame we manufactured a horror story and certainly did impair parts of the economy, probably unnecessarily. But, in other news. Shanghai Disney tickets sold out. RCL is reporting normal booking volume for 2021, guess not everyone is living under a table in their basement. Huh? Maybe I am missing something but the denominator for per capita death rate is simply total population of a country (https://www.statista.com/statistics/1104709/coronavirus-deaths-worldwide-per-million-inhabitants/). So China and India will show a small number for a very long time unless this is allowed to spread unhinged. I know there is general distrust of death numbers (numerator) attributable to covid but even if/when they start reporting "correct" ballpark numbers in the numerator, the denominator is what will skew and influence interpretation. This is really a very bad metric to compare countries on some kind of effectiveness or other theories on why deaths are higher because of the effect of denominator that has no direct relevance to deaths. It is simply an accident of population growth trajectory. Here it is without the denominator. I see a similar pattern, still. Now we just need to divide this by the approx # of days since first 1000 detected infections to get account for different starting points of large scale community spread. And why 1000? Because we need a reasonably large reported number to make sure community spread is well underway. We can pick another number here but has to be consistent across the board. For example Brazil will be early April, India will be starting in mid April whereas US will be in early to mid-Feb if I remember correctly. Slowly we are converging towards the correct way to look at things across countries using this metric. Even with this, it won't answer all questions. It will answer how quickly deaths rose (and plateaued) in each country post start of community spread. P.S: Just to be clear, this will be a lagging indicator in economic metric paralance.
cwericb Posted May 8, 2020 Posted May 8, 2020 As Liberty quoted... Trump: Katie, she tested very good for a long period of time and then all of the sudden today she tested positive... This is why the whole concept of tests aren’t necessarily great And if you still don’t think this guy is nuts he went on to say.. “Today, for some reason, she tested positive...: For some reason?? Well DUH!
Mephistopheles Posted May 8, 2020 Posted May 8, 2020 As Liberty quoted... Trump: Katie, she tested very good for a long period of time and then all of the sudden today she tested positive... This is why the whole concept of tests aren’t necessarily great And if you still don’t think this guy is nuts he went on to say.. “Today, for some reason, she tested positive...: For some reason?? Well DUH! What a dumbass. Doesn't make me feel good that a leader during a pandemic can be so dumb.
Jurgis Posted May 8, 2020 Posted May 8, 2020 As Liberty quoted... Trump: Katie, she tested very good for a long period of time and then all of the sudden today she tested positive... This is why the whole concept of tests aren’t necessarily great And if you still don’t think this guy is nuts he went on to say.. “Today, for some reason, she tested positive...: For some reason?? Well DUH! She's Pence's secretary... so it's a virgin infection. Hallelujah!
Liberty Posted May 8, 2020 Posted May 8, 2020 https://apnews.com/9c4d5284ba4769d3b98aa05232201f88 “ AP Exclusive: Top White House officials buried CDC report” The trove of emails show the nation’s top public health experts at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention spending weeks working on guidance to help the country deal with a public health emergency, only to see their work quashed by political appointees with little explanation.
Guest Posted May 8, 2020 Posted May 8, 2020 More hate from MSM: https://www.foxnews.com/entertainment/jimmy-kimmel-mike-pence-empy-boxes-clip
Spekulatius Posted May 9, 2020 Posted May 9, 2020 This doesn’t sound that great: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-05-07/china-study-finds-5-to-15-of-covid-19-cases-are-reactivated
meiroy Posted May 9, 2020 Posted May 9, 2020 "There have been 73 reported cases in NY of children getting severely ill with symptoms similar to Kawasaki disease and toxic shock-like syndrome. On Thursday, a 5-year-old boy passed away from these complications, believed to be caused by COVID-19. DOH is investigating." If it's really due to a new mutation in the virus and there's no clear way to prevent/treat it, it's pretty much game over. There will be no reopening. The economy tanks down. The current administration is completely incapable of handling anything like this. This is the one thing I'd keep very close attention to.
Spekulatius Posted May 9, 2020 Posted May 9, 2020 "There have been 73 reported cases in NY of children getting severely ill with symptoms similar to Kawasaki disease and toxic shock-like syndrome. On Thursday, a 5-year-old boy passed away from these complications, believed to be caused by COVID-19. DOH is investigating." If it's really due to a new mutation in the virus and there's no clear way to prevent/treat it, it's pretty much game over. There will be no reopening. The economy tanks down. The current administration is completely incapable of handling anything like this. This is the one thing I'd keep very close attention to. I don’t think it’s a mutation of the virus causing this. It’s more likely that with so many cases and 100 thousands and of infections, some people or kids in this case have a different and adverse reaction to this virus, one of them with similar symptoms than Kawasaki’s disease.
meiroy Posted May 9, 2020 Posted May 9, 2020 "There have been 73 reported cases in NY of children getting severely ill with symptoms similar to Kawasaki disease and toxic shock-like syndrome. On Thursday, a 5-year-old boy passed away from these complications, believed to be caused by COVID-19. DOH is investigating." If it's really due to a new mutation in the virus and there's no clear way to prevent/treat it, it's pretty much game over. There will be no reopening. The economy tanks down. The current administration is completely incapable of handling anything like this. This is the one thing I'd keep very close attention to. I don’t think it’s a mutation of the virus causing this. It’s more likely that with so many cases and 100 thousands and of infections, some people or kids in this case have a different and adverse reaction to this virus, one of them with similar symptoms than Kawasaki’s disease. That's quite possible. Let's hope so. If that is the case, of course, this should have happened all along. I'm not saying it's a mutation, just that it's something to keep an eye on.
UK Posted May 9, 2020 Posted May 9, 2020 https://www.ft.com/content/a2b4c18c-a5e8-4edc-8047-ade4a82a548d Sweden’s unique strategy to deal with coronavirus will ensure it has only a small second wave of cases unlike other countries that could be forced to return to lockdown, according to the architect of the contentious policy. Anders Tegnell, Sweden’s state epidemiologist who devised the no-lockdown approach, estimated that 40 per cent of people in the capital, Stockholm, would be immune to Covid-19 by the end of May, giving the country an advantage against a virus that “we’re going to have to live with for a very long time”. “In the autumn there will be a second wave. Sweden will have a high level of immunity and the number of cases will probably be quite low,” Mr Tegnell told the Financial Times. “But Finland will have a very low level of immunity. Will Finland have to go into a complete lockdown again?” He believes European leaders, fearful that their health systems would be overwhelmed, felt they needed to copy China’s approach, the first country to lock down because of the disease. About a quarter of people in Stockholm had the virus at the start of May, according to a mathematical model by Sweden’s public health agency, which Mr Tegnell said was part of the reason the number of cases in the capital had fallen recently. By contrast, tests this week in Norway’s capital Oslo suggested that under 2 per cent of the population had been infected. But Mr Tegnell said uncertainty about how long virus immunity would last meant it was unlikely Sweden would reach “herd immunity”, a level of the disease where so many people are infected — usually about 80 per cent — that it stops spreading. “I don’t think we or any country in the world will reach herd immunity in the sense that the disease goes away because I don’t think this is a disease that goes away,” he added. Many countries’ hope is that they can keep the virus at bay until a vaccine is found. But Mr Tegnell said that, even in the best-case scenario, it was likely to take “years” to develop one, before it could be administered to an entire population. “It’s a big mistake to sit down and say ‘we should just wait for a vaccine’. It will take much longer than we think. And in the end, we don’t know how good a vaccine it will be. It’s another reason to have a sustainable policy in place.”
John Hjorth Posted May 9, 2020 Posted May 9, 2020 JAMA Network [May 7th 2020] : Clinical Characteristics and Results of Semen Tests Among Men With Coronavirus Disease 2019. Some cherry picking in the Discussion section : In this cohort study, we found that SARS-CoV-2 can be present in the semen of patients with COVID-19, and SARS-CoV-2 may still be detected in the semen of recovering patients. ... I wonder what the doctors among us here on CoBF get out of this. Very small sample size though [which I don't even know if matters here]. It reads scary to me as a layman.
Spekulatius Posted May 9, 2020 Posted May 9, 2020 https://www.ft.com/content/a2b4c18c-a5e8-4edc-8047-ade4a82a548d Sweden’s unique strategy to deal with coronavirus will ensure it has only a small second wave of cases unlike other countries that could be forced to return to lockdown, according to the architect of the contentious policy. Anders Tegnell, Sweden’s state epidemiologist who devised the no-lockdown approach, estimated that 40 per cent of people in the capital, Stockholm, would be immune to Covid-19 by the end of May, giving the country an advantage against a virus that “we’re going to have to live with for a very long time”. “In the autumn there will be a second wave. Sweden will have a high level of immunity and the number of cases will probably be quite low,” Mr Tegnell told the Financial Times. “But Finland will have a very low level of immunity. Will Finland have to go into a complete lockdown again?” He believes European leaders, fearful that their health systems would be overwhelmed, felt they needed to copy China’s approach, the first country to lock down because of the disease. About a quarter of people in Stockholm had the virus at the start of May, according to a mathematical model by Sweden’s public health agency, which Mr Tegnell said was part of the reason the number of cases in the capital had fallen recently. By contrast, tests this week in Norway’s capital Oslo suggested that under 2 per cent of the population had been infected. But Mr Tegnell said uncertainty about how long virus immunity would last meant it was unlikely Sweden would reach “herd immunity”, a level of the disease where so many people are infected — usually about 80 per cent — that it stops spreading. “I don’t think we or any country in the world will reach herd immunity in the sense that the disease goes away because I don’t think this is a disease that goes away,” he added. Many countries’ hope is that they can keep the virus at bay until a vaccine is found. But Mr Tegnell said that, even in the best-case scenario, it was likely to take “years” to develop one, before it could be administered to an entire population. “It’s a big mistake to sit down and say ‘we should just wait for a vaccine’. It will take much longer than we think. And in the end, we don’t know how good a vaccine it will be. It’s another reason to have a sustainable policy in place.” The Swedish models isn’t different than the US model effectively except the Swedes do with intend what the US does wby accident and of course the Swedes have a much better outcome (no collapse of their health care system in Stockholm vs NYC). What I do not get is - even if Stockholm reaches heard immunity until fall, that’s only 10% of their population (Stockholm has ~1M people vs 10.3M Swedes), so they still will have 10x more cases overall when Stockholm is done. NYC probably reaches some level of heard immunity too, and possibly some hard hit areas in the NE (Boston, Connecticut), but again that’s only a small part of the US population. There is still a lot of uninfected humans in both countries to work through. If that’s our strategy anyhow, how about estimating some numbers. US 340M people, let say we infect 60% with a 0.75% mortality rate and get there without crashing the health care system somehow. That’s 1.53M dead by my math which needs to be seen relative to the ~2.8M natural death rate in the US. Maybe that’s what it is, but I have not seen this spelled out in a WH meeting - this is our strategy and that how much it’s going to cost us and that is how we minimize the damage and the risk of the health care system crashing etc. Instead, the WH says, we are going to have 100k dead and we are winging it and see what happens.
clutch Posted May 9, 2020 Posted May 9, 2020 https://www.ft.com/content/a2b4c18c-a5e8-4edc-8047-ade4a82a548d Sweden’s unique strategy to deal with coronavirus will ensure it has only a small second wave of cases unlike other countries that could be forced to return to lockdown, according to the architect of the contentious policy. Anders Tegnell, Sweden’s state epidemiologist who devised the no-lockdown approach, estimated that 40 per cent of people in the capital, Stockholm, would be immune to Covid-19 by the end of May, giving the country an advantage against a virus that “we’re going to have to live with for a very long time”. “In the autumn there will be a second wave. Sweden will have a high level of immunity and the number of cases will probably be quite low,” Mr Tegnell told the Financial Times. “But Finland will have a very low level of immunity. Will Finland have to go into a complete lockdown again?” He believes European leaders, fearful that their health systems would be overwhelmed, felt they needed to copy China’s approach, the first country to lock down because of the disease. About a quarter of people in Stockholm had the virus at the start of May, according to a mathematical model by Sweden’s public health agency, which Mr Tegnell said was part of the reason the number of cases in the capital had fallen recently. By contrast, tests this week in Norway’s capital Oslo suggested that under 2 per cent of the population had been infected. But Mr Tegnell said uncertainty about how long virus immunity would last meant it was unlikely Sweden would reach “herd immunity”, a level of the disease where so many people are infected — usually about 80 per cent — that it stops spreading. “I don’t think we or any country in the world will reach herd immunity in the sense that the disease goes away because I don’t think this is a disease that goes away,” he added. Many countries’ hope is that they can keep the virus at bay until a vaccine is found. But Mr Tegnell said that, even in the best-case scenario, it was likely to take “years” to develop one, before it could be administered to an entire population. “It’s a big mistake to sit down and say ‘we should just wait for a vaccine’. It will take much longer than we think. And in the end, we don’t know how good a vaccine it will be. It’s another reason to have a sustainable policy in place.” The Swedish models isn’t different than the US model effectively except the Swedes do with intend what the US does wby accident and of course the Swedes have a much better outcome (no collapse of their health care system in Stockholm vs NYC). What I do not get is - even if Stockholm reaches heard immunity until fall, that’s only 10% of their population (Stockholm has ~1M people vs 10.3M Swedes), so they still will have 10x more cases overall when Stockholm is done. NYC probably reaches some level of heard immunity too, and possibly some hard hit areas in the NE (Boston, Connecticut), but again that’s only a small part of the US population. There is still a lot of uninfected humans in both countries to work through. If that’s our strategy anyhow, how about estimating some numbers. US 340M people, let say we infect 60% with a 0.75% mortality rate and get there without crashing the health care system somehow. That’s 1.53M dead by my math which needs to be seen relative to the ~2.8M natural death rate in the US. Maybe that’s what it is, but I have not seen this spelled out in a WH meeting - this is our strategy and that how much it’s going to cost us and that is how we minimize the damage and the risk of the health care system crashing etc. Instead, the WH says, we are going to have 100k dead and we are winging it and see what happens. The mortality rate will be lower as the older/vulnerable population die first and as schools open and more kids get infected. (I know, that sounds horrible) But I 100% agree with you that these projections are never brought up by the government. It's not just the WH, but many other governments who have gone the lockdown route and are now stuck on what to do next. I think we will have to learn how to live with this virus...
Liberty Posted May 9, 2020 Posted May 9, 2020 ‘Finally, a virus got me.’ Scientist who fought Ebola and HIV reflects on facing death from COVID-19 https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/05/finally-virus-got-me-scientist-who-fought-ebola-and-hiv-reflects-facing-death-covid-19
Liberty Posted May 9, 2020 Posted May 9, 2020 Taiwan is now just one day away from completing two 14-day incubation periods with zero locally transmitted cases. Hong Kong is at 20 consecutive days with no new local cases https://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/health-environment/article/3083627/coronavirus-hong-kong-records-no-new-cases-covid
Guest cherzeca Posted May 9, 2020 Posted May 9, 2020 the great heather Macdonald https://amgreatness.com/2020/04/22/the-deadly-costs-of-extended-shutdown-orders/
clutch Posted May 9, 2020 Posted May 9, 2020 Taiwan is now just one day away from completing two 14-day incubation periods with zero locally transmitted cases. Hong Kong is at 20 consecutive days with no new local cases https://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/health-environment/article/3083627/coronavirus-hong-kong-records-no-new-cases-covid While these are success stories now, I'm afraid once they open up the borders/businesses again... Boom.
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