Castanza Posted April 22, 2020 Posted April 22, 2020 I am not saying shutdowns weren't necessary in some places, but Trump put the responsibility to states, state governors largely overreacted and the ones who didn't the media did their best to shame into submission. Perfect cop out. Now shift blame to the states. It's not a cop out. Its called the 10th Amendment. States are to be in charge of heath and public safety. It's the same reason why we have State police and not Federal police in every state. All states (as far as I'm aware) have constitutions that outline public health and safety actions. Here is PA I was talking with a friend who works in the capital. They informed me there is a literally a room with hundreds of binders that have step by step action plans for every conceivable situation. Federal funding and aid does not come until states declare emergency. Many states did not declare emergency for a long time. Now this could be because a lack of leadership and awareness being made from the federal level. At the end of the day decisions and actions were taken and at some point we will have to look back and see what was done and not done correctly. Plenty of blame to go around. Don't get me wrong. There is plenty of blame to go around and the federal actions were piss poor. But the states and even local officials are also to be held accountable. Greg is not wrong about this. Lack of PPE and precautions taken at state hospitals should equally scrutinized alongside the federal response. Supreme court has rules in the past that during extraordinary times the federal govt can step in and temporarily violate the BoR such as 4th amendment. But they were clear that these violations MUST be temporary and within scope of the objective. So all the extra "pork" we are seeing in these Bills is largely unconstitutional. Alongside this, DT actually does have the authority to temporarily lock down the nation from a federal level. Clearly that's supposed to be with discretion, and probably would be handled alongside what States are already implementing.
Guest cherzeca Posted April 22, 2020 Posted April 22, 2020 https://supreme.justia.com/cases/federal/us/197/11/ An interesting ruling which I'm sure we will begin to see (if not already mentioned) in the news. in the federalism push/pull between state police power and the vast delegation of power to the federal govt (the commerce clause is almost limitless), any controversy will be resolved politically imo. dont worry about scotus for this beef. trump does not want to own covid response, except to take credit where the federal govt has provided aid...and there has been a huge federal response. but trump will be more than happy to let the state governors execute the covid response, letting the michigan gov take the heat when she gets a little stalinesque, and taking credit for when things get better. I certainly expect trump to throw out the first ball in the baseball return.
Dalal.Holdings Posted April 22, 2020 Posted April 22, 2020 Perfect cop out. Now shift blame to the states. The Trump playbook works brilliantly on the intended audience. No surprises here. The burden of lockdown/vents/testing/etc falls to the states (even tho FDA/CDC are fed agencies and don't you dare go to S Korea for tests, but ask my son in law for permission if you want vents) while the benefits of opening up go to Trump. No downside, only upsides for Trump. Have yet to hear any of his supporters cast any criticisms about his response. The worst he gets from them is "it's out of his hands and there was nothing he could have done anyway". Asymmetry!
orthopa Posted April 22, 2020 Posted April 22, 2020 https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2020-04-21/autopsies-reveal-first-confirmed-u-s-coronavirus-deaths-occurred-in-bay-area-in-early-february?mod=article_inline There have been growing concerns that the new coronavirus has been in California longer than experts first believed. Dr. Jeff Smith, a physician who is the chief executive of Santa Clara County government, said earlier this month that data collected by the CDC, local health departments and others suggest it was “a lot longer than we first believed” — most likely since “back in December.” “This wasn’t recognized because we were having a severe flu season,” Smith said in an interview. “Symptoms are very much like the flu. If you got a mild case of COVID, you didn’t really notice. You didn’t even go to the doctor. The doctor maybe didn’t even do it because they presumed it was the flu.” https://www.marketwatch.com/story/santa-clara-county-officials-identify-additional-covid-19-deaths-2020-04-22?mod=home-page he local medical examiner collected samples during autopsies performed on people who died on Feb. 6, Feb. 17, and March 6 that later tested positive for the novel coronavirus. If COVID was in California earlier then expected it was in NYC earlier then expected. Both get tons of international flights. That being said community spread was happening undetected. Was it the stay at home order that poured gas on the fire in NYC? Initial business closure was on March 16th, schools closed on March 18th, Shelter in place March 22nd. Peak hospital usage April 8-10th so 21-23 days after kids forced to stay home. Are there a lot of multi generational homes in NYC? Was the gas on the fire bringing everyone together and locking them up in close contact for days on end? People of color would seem to be more likely to live in a multi generational situations. Is this why they are more hard hit in addition to comorbidities? Italy had some of the strictest stay at home orders started on March 9th and 30% of Italians live in multi generational homes https://www.wsj.com/articles/family-is-italys-great-strength-coronavirus-made-it-deadly-11585058566 Italy has a ton of multi generational homes Wouldn't that be a pisser if the stay at home orders had just the opposite effects in NYC, Italy and Spain? To piggy back on this Cuomo was just on and said hospitalizations are still troubling high. With all of the pictures online of NYC barren and a stay at home order for over a month how can the hospitalization rate/positive rate be so high? With a state lock down for over a month where are all of these infections coming from if not within in Shelter in place family/groups? People have to socially distance in public and wear masks. The subway is still running but so that could be a source. Where are all of these continued infections coming from? This looks like Italy/Spain with its stubbornly high numbers.
pocoapoco Posted April 22, 2020 Posted April 22, 2020 I am not saying shutdowns weren't necessary in some places, but Trump put the responsibility to states, state governors largely overreacted and the ones who didn't the media did their best to shame into submission. Perfect cop out. Now shift blame to the states. Trust has been lost. The scientists got on their soap box, pointed to their models, and made their predictions of doom and gloom. Nowhere in the 1-2million death model stated “If we shelter in place” then we will see the outcome that we have seen (empty hospitals, death toll 10-20 times less than expected). They are definitely saying that now, but it feels like an after-the-fact revision. And now there is a doubling down .... it will be later. I live in a community with 450,000 people. We’ve been shut down for 6 weeks. We’ve had 3 deaths ... a prisoner, a homeless person, an elderly person, all with extremely bad health prior. The hospitals are empty and the community is getting obliterated. Greg is right that New York is a special case as is anywhere with a high population density or public transportation. To apply a one size fits all model is like when homeland security gave funding to small towns in the Midwest to fight terrorism. Rather than accept that the models were flawed, or even just need to be revised, updated and more nuanced, it seems the scientific community and media is still doubling down on the terror and denying any error. The problem with this is that they are squandering the little trust left. You only get one shot at this. It’s like the boy who cried wolf. As more time passes and the predictions and models and hysteria stay diverged from reality, people lose faith in those leaders and in the models. Then, when they are right later, and say no really now it’s gonna happen .... no one will listen. Once we open up, if there’s a new alarm bell, people will shrug and say “well you say that before.” This happened in my community where there were fires that threatened our area and people were forced to relocate from their homes for 2 months, through the Christmas holiday. After people had moved back into their homes there was a fresh threat reported of mudslide danger. There was mandatory evacuation again. Barely a quarter of people left. The point is that the scientific community needs to update the models and provide more transparent predictions, region based, based on several courses of action, with confidence intervals. Government needs to quickly react to local data and course correct where necessary ... if you have high cases, the cost benefit of shutting down makes more sense than in places where you don’t. And lastly people need to stop taking the moral high ground on everyone who points out the very real trade offs that we are making between life, poverty, economic despair, and destabilizing the health care system. If anything, at the moment the fact that hospitals are firing doctors and nurses is working against the original (but now forgotten) agenda to keep the hospitals from being overrun.
Dalal.Holdings Posted April 22, 2020 Posted April 22, 2020 I am not saying shutdowns weren't necessary in some places, but Trump put the responsibility to states, state governors largely overreacted and the ones who didn't the media did their best to shame into submission. Perfect cop out. Now shift blame to the states. Trust has been lost. The scientists got on their soap box, pointed to their models, and made their predictions of doom and gloom. Nowhere in the 1-2million death model stated “If we shelter in place” then we will see the outcome that we have seen (empty hospitals, death toll 10-20 times less than expected). They are definitely saying that now, but it feels like an after-the-fact revision. And now there is a doubling down .... it will be later. You must have missed the whole "flatten the curve" thing being passed around by the scientists, doctors, and epidemiologists. It was pretty hard to miss. Anyway, mission accomplished--flattening the curve allows some the luxury of now saying "see, we overreacted'.
LC Posted April 22, 2020 Posted April 22, 2020 It's really incredible how federally coordinated testing could have addressed these issues and still is not being done.
Gregmal Posted April 22, 2020 Posted April 22, 2020 I am not saying shutdowns weren't necessary in some places, but Trump put the responsibility to states, state governors largely overreacted and the ones who didn't the media did their best to shame into submission. Perfect cop out. Now shift blame to the states. Totally. And exactly whats deserved. A big city mayor or governor should be aware that the entire state is not simply where the largest congestion of peoples, and that the largest congestion of people is not necessarily indicative of the entire state. FL for instance, has been handled much different than NYC... and is not decimated.
arcube Posted April 22, 2020 Posted April 22, 2020 A big city mayor or governor should be aware ..... Replace the big city mayor or governor with "The President of the World's largest economy could have done...(fill a thousand blanks).", maybe the picture will get clearer for you.
arcube Posted April 22, 2020 Posted April 22, 2020 Trust has been lost. The scientists got on their soap box, pointed to their models, and made their predictions of doom and gloom. Nowhere in the 1-2million death model stated “If we shelter in place” then we will see the outcome that we have seen (empty hospitals, death toll 10-20 times less than expected). They are definitely saying that now, but it feels like an after-the-fact revision. And now there is a doubling down .... it will be later. You blame the lack of trust developing on scientists and media when everyday your boy gets on his own soapboax and starts lying and yelling. Has no medical experience yet does not take medical community seriously. What is his record here as an executive. He may be winning but in the end the con game helps no one, not even his own supporters. I live in a community with 450,000 people. We’ve been shut down for 6 weeks. We’ve had 3 deaths ... a prisoner, a homeless person, an elderly person, all with extremely bad health prior. The hospitals are empty and the community is getting obliterated. Greg is right that New York is a special case as is anywhere with a high population density or public transportation. To apply a one size fits all model is like when homeland security gave funding to small towns in the Midwest to fight terrorism. So the community is getting obliterated because peoples lives were saved at a huge inconvenience? Rather than accept that the models were flawed, or even just need to be revised, updated and more nuanced, it seems the scientific community and media is still doubling down on the terror and denying any error. The problem with this is that they are squandering the little trust left. You only get one shot at this. It’s like the boy who cried wolf. As more time passes and the predictions and models and hysteria stay diverged from reality, people lose faith in those leaders and in the models. Then, when they are right later, and say no really now it’s gonna happen .... no one will listen. Once we open up, if there’s a new alarm bell, people will shrug and say “well you say that before.” Wow you talk about admission. How about the Big Daddy admits he fked up on this royally! Playing the Cohen book, he will never admit to anything. How he thought the geometric progression will work in the reverse direction as long as he is blustering.
KJP Posted April 22, 2020 Posted April 22, 2020 Trust has been lost. The scientists got on their soap box, pointed to their models, and made their predictions of doom and gloom. Nowhere in the 1-2million death model stated “If we shelter in place” then we will see the outcome that we have seen (empty hospitals, death toll 10-20 times less than expected). They are definitely saying that now, but it feels like an after-the-fact revision. My understanding is that the 2 million potential death toll came from this Imperial College study: https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf If you look on pages 6-7 of that study, you will see that the 2 million number is prefaced with the observation that is represents the unlikely scenario of no mitigation efforts at all. If you go to page 10, you will find a discuss of the effect increasingly severe social restrictions up to a "complete lockdown." Have you read this study? If so, is it consistent with your description of it? The point is that the scientific community needs to update the models and provide more transparent predictions, region based, based on several courses of action, with confidence intervals. The IHME does exactly that and has been updated several times. It's available here: https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america Have you looked at this model before? If so, how does it not do what you say needs to be done?
Gregmal Posted April 22, 2020 Posted April 22, 2020 A big city mayor or governor should be aware ..... Replace the big city mayor or governor with "The President of the World's largest economy could have done...(fill a thousand blanks).", maybe the picture will get clearer for you. Ah, not really, Ive already stated, as have others, that theres plenty of blame to go around, including Trump. But nothing is ever enough for you guys because regardless of whats said, it somehow always leads back to nothing but a raging desire to bitch about Trump..... oh well. If you dont understand WHY mayors and governors exist, and WHY they bear certain responsibilities, rather than the Federal government, then theres no point in having a discussion until you revisit 3rd grade social studies.
arcube Posted April 22, 2020 Posted April 22, 2020 If you dont understand WHY mayors and governors exist, and WHY they bear certain responsibilities, rather than the Federal government, then theres no point in having a discussion until you revisit 3rd grade social studies. Perfect bully move here..Fair enough, I will revisit Third Grade - what will you revisit? Here is a tweet from your Governor. "People will die if we get cocky about reopening. To those who are upset about our careful approach — don't blame your local official. Blame me."
pocoapoco Posted April 22, 2020 Posted April 22, 2020 Trust has been lost. The scientists got on their soap box, pointed to their models, and made their predictions of doom and gloom. Nowhere in the 1-2million death model stated “If we shelter in place” then we will see the outcome that we have seen (empty hospitals, death toll 10-20 times less than expected). They are definitely saying that now, but it feels like an after-the-fact revision. And now there is a doubling down .... it will be later. You blame the lack of trust developing on scientists and media when everyday your boy gets on his own soapboax and starts lying and yelling. Has no medical experience yet does not take medical community seriously. What is his record here as an executive. He may be winning but in the end the con game helps no one, not even his own supporters. I live in a community with 450,000 people. We’ve been shut down for 6 weeks. We’ve had 3 deaths ... a prisoner, a homeless person, an elderly person, all with extremely bad health prior. The hospitals are empty and the community is getting obliterated. Greg is right that New York is a special case as is anywhere with a high population density or public transportation. To apply a one size fits all model is like when homeland security gave funding to small towns in the Midwest to fight terrorism. So the community is getting obliterated because peoples lives were saved at a huge inconvenience? Rather than accept that the models were flawed, or even just need to be revised, updated and more nuanced, it seems the scientific community and media is still doubling down on the terror and denying any error. The problem with this is that they are squandering the little trust left. You only get one shot at this. It’s like the boy who cried wolf. As more time passes and the predictions and models and hysteria stay diverged from reality, people lose faith in those leaders and in the models. Then, when they are right later, and say no really now it’s gonna happen .... no one will listen. Once we open up, if there’s a new alarm bell, people will shrug and say “well you say that before.” Wow you talk about admission. How about the Big Daddy admits he fked up on this royally! Playing the Cohen book, he will never admit to anything. How he thought the geometric progression will work in the reverse direction as long as he is blustering. Not saying Trump is smart or has added value. The political side of this isn’t super interesting. The trust thing is real. When it it widely declared that we are flattening the curve to keep hospitals from being overrun, and the hospitals are empty and firing people.... how do you not at that point update the model to relax social distancing. You can change the narrative (“actually we aren’t worried about hospitals we just want to minimize total death count”) but then you have a trust issue because people can remember what the argument was from a couple months ago, the argument used to garner compliance and convince people to sacrifice their economic livelihood. Maybe making that sacrifice for a demographic they aren’t part of (elderly and ill) wasn’t sufficient motivation so the ante was upped by saying no this is everyone’s issue of the hospitals are fucked. But here we are and if we try to change the argument now it just makes it seem like the old argument was manipulative. If we don’t change the argument then we should be relaxing social measuring in areas with minimal hospital resource usage. You sort of have to pick one.
Dalal.Holdings Posted April 22, 2020 Posted April 22, 2020 Here is a tweet from your Governor. "People will die if we get cocky about reopening. To those who are upset about our careful approach — don't blame your local official. Blame me." A leader willing to take on blame? Actually accept the downside? Refreshing. A stark contrast to "I take no responsibility" (no skin in the game) type leaders. I know which type of leader I vastly prefer during a real life crisis.
orthopa Posted April 22, 2020 Posted April 22, 2020 If you dont understand WHY mayors and governors exist, and WHY they bear certain responsibilities, rather than the Federal government, then theres no point in having a discussion until you revisit 3rd grade social studies. Perfect bully move here..Fair enough, I will revisit Third Grade - what will you revisit? Here is a tweet from your Governor. "People will die if we get cocky about reopening. To those who are upset about our careful approach — don't blame your local official. Blame me." Things were moving quickly back in March and still are to some degree but Cuomo didnt think a shelter in place would work on 3/20/2020. A couple days later he did and now says it can't be lifted unless certain measures are taken even though now it seems the shelter in place may responsible for the majority of all continued infections in NYC. In reality all involved have blame. https://www.ksla.com/2020/03/20/california-becomes-first-state-order-lockdown/ In New York, where coronavirus has killed 32 people, Gov. Andrew Cuomo said he has no plans to impose a statewide mandate. “My job is to make sure that the state has a coordinated plan and it works everywhere,” he said this week. “I don’t think shelter-in-place really works.”
arcube Posted April 22, 2020 Posted April 22, 2020 Not saying Trump is smart or has added value. The political side of this isn’t super interesting. The trust thing is real. When it it widely declared that we are flattening the curve to keep hospitals from being overrun, and the hospitals are empty and firing people.... how do you not at that point update the model to relax social distancing. You can change the narrative (“actually we aren’t worried about hospitals we just want to minimize total death count”) but then you have a trust issue because people can remember what the argument was from a couple months ago, the argument used to garner compliance and convince people to sacrifice their economic livelihood. Maybe making that sacrifice for a demographic they aren’t part of (elderly and ill) wasn’t sufficient motivation so the ante was upped by saying no this is everyone’s issue of the hospitals are fucked. But here we are and if we try to change the argument now it just makes it seem like the old argument was manipulative. If we don’t change the argument then we should be relaxing social measuring in areas with minimal hospital resource usage. You sort of have to pick one. Appreciate your comment about the politics of this. I do agree it is useless but I think in an election year politics became so much a part of it and in fact drove it unfortunately. I do believe that they are updating the models in real time. I believe that NY folks can schedule any elective surgeries now. This is collateral damage but these are not the perfect of times. I also think CA will start easing early May and in fact some people tell me that it might be the first week. I just wish we had real testing scale. A lot could be flushed out easily. The fact that we have no coordination as a country will set us back. Thanks again.
Guest cherzeca Posted April 22, 2020 Posted April 22, 2020 @orthopa "how can the hospitalization rate/positive rate be so high..." I have heard from several NYC doctors I know that when admits are presumed covid based upon symptoms, and then there is a "confirmatory" test which is negative, hospital just treats it as a false negative and doesnt change record, and proceeds with oxygen, IV and monitoring
arcube Posted April 22, 2020 Posted April 22, 2020 If you dont understand WHY mayors and governors exist, and WHY they bear certain responsibilities, rather than the Federal government, then theres no point in having a discussion until you revisit 3rd grade social studies. Perfect bully move here..Fair enough, I will revisit Third Grade - what will you revisit? Here is a tweet from your Governor. "People will die if we get cocky about reopening. To those who are upset about our careful approach — don't blame your local official. Blame me." Things were moving quickly back in March and still are to some degree but Cuomo didnt think a shelter in place would work on 3/20/2020. A couple days later he did and now says it can't be lifted unless certain measures are taken even though now it seems the shelter in place may responsible for the majority of all continued infections in NYC. In reality all involved have blame. https://www.ksla.com/2020/03/20/california-becomes-first-state-order-lockdown/ In New York, where coronavirus has killed 32 people, Gov. Andrew Cuomo said he has no plans to impose a statewide mandate. “My job is to make sure that the state has a coordinated plan and it works everywhere,” he said this week. “I don’t think shelter-in-place really works.” I am sure information changed and he recalculated. Also the CA decisions were bold at that time and that might have helped change the response. Would you say that the guy is atleast trying his best to manage the damn curveball that this disease is?
orthopa Posted April 22, 2020 Posted April 22, 2020 Trust has been lost. The scientists got on their soap box, pointed to their models, and made their predictions of doom and gloom. Nowhere in the 1-2million death model stated “If we shelter in place” then we will see the outcome that we have seen (empty hospitals, death toll 10-20 times less than expected). They are definitely saying that now, but it feels like an after-the-fact revision. And now there is a doubling down .... it will be later. You blame the lack of trust developing on scientists and media when everyday your boy gets on his own soapboax and starts lying and yelling. Has no medical experience yet does not take medical community seriously. What is his record here as an executive. He may be winning but in the end the con game helps no one, not even his own supporters. I live in a community with 450,000 people. We’ve been shut down for 6 weeks. We’ve had 3 deaths ... a prisoner, a homeless person, an elderly person, all with extremely bad health prior. The hospitals are empty and the community is getting obliterated. Greg is right that New York is a special case as is anywhere with a high population density or public transportation. To apply a one size fits all model is like when homeland security gave funding to small towns in the Midwest to fight terrorism. So the community is getting obliterated because peoples lives were saved at a huge inconvenience? Rather than accept that the models were flawed, or even just need to be revised, updated and more nuanced, it seems the scientific community and media is still doubling down on the terror and denying any error. The problem with this is that they are squandering the little trust left. You only get one shot at this. It’s like the boy who cried wolf. As more time passes and the predictions and models and hysteria stay diverged from reality, people lose faith in those leaders and in the models. Then, when they are right later, and say no really now it’s gonna happen .... no one will listen. Once we open up, if there’s a new alarm bell, people will shrug and say “well you say that before.” Wow you talk about admission. How about the Big Daddy admits he fked up on this royally! Playing the Cohen book, he will never admit to anything. How he thought the geometric progression will work in the reverse direction as long as he is blustering. Not saying Trump is smart or has added value. The political side of this isn’t super interesting. The trust thing is real. When it it widely declared that we are flattening the curve to keep hospitals from being overrun, and the hospitals are empty and firing people.... how do you not at that point update the model to relax social distancing. You can change the narrative (“actually we aren’t worried about hospitals we just want to minimize total death count”) but then you have a trust issue because people can remember what the argument was from a couple months ago, the argument used to garner compliance and convince people to sacrifice their economic livelihood. Maybe making that sacrifice for a demographic they aren’t part of (elderly and ill) wasn’t sufficient motivation so the ante was upped by saying no this is everyone’s issue of the hospitals are fucked. But here we are and if we try to change the argument now it just makes it seem like the old argument was manipulative. If we don’t change the argument then we should be relaxing social measuring in areas with minimal hospital resource usage. You sort of have to pick one. Somehow the argument has also gone from we have to bend the curve knowing a large portion of the populatoin will get infected and we have to spread it out....To now we cant re open because people WILL get infected and are being put at risk. When did we ever believe that a large portion of the population was not going to be exposed? I have read many that think the early to open states are foolish and "crazy". Did people really think they were going to out run this virus forever? Just like after 911 those that went to flying planes were foolish, didnt know the risks, were naive, "must have wanted to die". Same thing we are seeing now.
Guest Schwab711 Posted April 22, 2020 Posted April 22, 2020 NY never issued a shelter in place order statewide. If it exists, it's local/voluntary. We have a stay at home order which allows essential businesses to continue. There's obviously debate about what those essential businesses are. https://thehill.com/blogs/blog-briefing-room/490562-surgeon-general-coronavirus-guidelines-represent-national-stay-at-home-order
Guest Schwab711 Posted April 22, 2020 Posted April 22, 2020 We are at the point where we are just arguing how you think other people are thinking/acting. If you assume the other person is irrational then you will conclude they are irrational.
orthopa Posted April 22, 2020 Posted April 22, 2020 If you dont understand WHY mayors and governors exist, and WHY they bear certain responsibilities, rather than the Federal government, then theres no point in having a discussion until you revisit 3rd grade social studies. Perfect bully move here..Fair enough, I will revisit Third Grade - what will you revisit? Here is a tweet from your Governor. "People will die if we get cocky about reopening. To those who are upset about our careful approach — don't blame your local official. Blame me." Things were moving quickly back in March and still are to some degree but Cuomo didnt think a shelter in place would work on 3/20/2020. A couple days later he did and now says it can't be lifted unless certain measures are taken even though now it seems the shelter in place may responsible for the majority of all continued infections in NYC. In reality all involved have blame. https://www.ksla.com/2020/03/20/california-becomes-first-state-order-lockdown/ In New York, where coronavirus has killed 32 people, Gov. Andrew Cuomo said he has no plans to impose a statewide mandate. “My job is to make sure that the state has a coordinated plan and it works everywhere,” he said this week. “I don’t think shelter-in-place really works.” I am sure information changed and he recalculated. Also the CA decisions were bold at that time and that might have helped change the response. Would you say that the guy is atleast trying his best to manage the damn curveball that this disease is? I think everyone involved is trying to. But since everyone alive in the US is dealing with a pandemic like this for the first time, all involved have been wrong and right at the same time. Trump, Fauci, Cuomo, pick anyone here. Everyone is guessing and the guesses change daily. Its impossible to be in charge in any position and have perfect record in managing this. We all have horrible predictive capabilities, we are human. No different then investing, ha! ;D
orthopa Posted April 22, 2020 Posted April 22, 2020 NY never issued a shelter in place order statewide. If it exists, it's local/voluntary. We have a stay at home order which allows essential businesses to continue. There's obviously debate about what those essential businesses are. https://thehill.com/blogs/blog-briefing-room/490562-surgeon-general-coronavirus-guidelines-represent-national-stay-at-home-order True, whats going on in NYS if not shelter in place is a close cousin as people do seem to actually be listening.
Guest Schwab711 Posted April 22, 2020 Posted April 22, 2020 NY never issued a shelter in place order statewide. If it exists, it's local/voluntary. We have a stay at home order which allows essential businesses to continue. There's obviously debate about what those essential businesses are. https://thehill.com/blogs/blog-briefing-room/490562-surgeon-general-coronavirus-guidelines-represent-national-stay-at-home-order True, whats going on in NYS if not shelter in place is a close cousin as people do seem to actually be listening. I was reading something that the efficacy of 'social distancing' is far surpassing any expectations researchers had coming in. Early models looked at 70%, 80%, and 90% efficacy. The US model assumed 50%. A key factor driving the large estimate was a crucial assumption, discussed internally by task force officials, that only 50% of Americans would observe the government's stringent social distancing guidelines, the source said. That calculation was not shared widely. In reality, a much larger number -- 90% -- is observing the government's guidelines, US Surgeon General Dr. Jerome Adams said in several interviews this week https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/07/politics/white-house-coronavirus-death-projections/index.html That's been a huge factor in making the models look bad. No one expected Americans to listen to authorities 8)
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