meiroy Posted March 15, 2020 Posted March 15, 2020 I am very confident we will not see a repeat of 2008. I am becoming more confident a recession is coming and if some of the second order effects kick in it could be worse. I don't see how a recession is avoided. 1. Households QE. 2. Later, massive infrastructure projects. We should build out some of those influenza-specific hospitals that China has. Seems like they're damn useful. South Korea is doing more than fine without all those extreme measures.
EliG Posted March 15, 2020 Posted March 15, 2020 We should build out some of those influenza-specific hospitals that China has. Seems like they're damn useful. South Korea is doing more than fine without all those extreme measures. Hospital beds per 1,000 population (2015) S.Korea: 13 China: 3.9 Italy: 3.2 USA: 2.8 Canada: 2.6 Source: OECD Health Statistics
DTEJD1997 Posted March 15, 2020 Posted March 15, 2020 Hey all: Here are some thoughts/observations from the Detroit area. A buddy of mine called me up almost in a panic about 9:30 PM. He said there was a run on toilet paper and infant formula. He heard someone got stabbed in the neck over a roll of toilet paper. He said he was only able to get a dozen rolls and 1 package of infant formula. ????? He is unmarried and has no children. Why are you buying infant formula I queried? He said it was in short supply and thought it would be good to buy. WTF? Why not leave it for a mother that actually needs it and can use it!? He also said he only had "about 20" rolls of toilet paper before today....Once again, WTF? Why do you need so much? He said that toilet paper was being rationed and would "be the new currency" in a week. If the single dude needs more than 20 rolls and can't resupplied in the next 10 weeks...he might have bigger problems than toilet paper. He was also going on & on about how the grocery store he went to was picked over and that Krogers would be having shortened hours and would be placing restrictions on how much food you could buy. He was 1 step away from being panicked. So I decided to go shopping tonight instead of tomorrow as I had originally planned. The Kroger I went to was busier than usual for this time of night. The only people who were agitated appeared to be the Grosse Pointers. Everybody else was just casually going about their business. 90%+ of people just seemed to be normally shopping, not buying huge amounts of stuff. Some things were indeed sold out. The cheap bacon was all gone, along with the cheaper eggs. If you wanted Vegan, macro-biotic eggs, you could get them for $5/dozen. Some pasta & soup was gone, but if you were willing to be flexible, ie. take linguine instead of "spaghetti" you could buy all a person reasonably wanted. I wanted "Italian Wedding" soup, but wound up getting Campbells Tomato soup. Toiled paper was being restricted to two packages, and a lot was sold out, but if you were willing to buy the luxury stuff, you could get what you needed. TV dinners, ice-cream, fruit, vegetables, spices, chips, Coke, yoghurt, seafood, frozen snacks, butter were all in good supply. Some breads were sold out, maybe 50%? but I got what I like & use. Some fresh meats were sold out. So overall, near me, everybody was acting decent enough and the store was at 85% to 90% stocked. All checkouts were self serve though. I got 26/28 items on my shopping list. I am now fully stocked for at least 30 days assuming I have power/water/sewer. I am likely good for 45 day if I can get about $10 of stuff midway through, (carton of eggs, loaf of bread, package of chicken/beef, citrus). Maybe I am lucky, or in a good spot, but I got what I need.
Kaegi2011 Posted March 15, 2020 Posted March 15, 2020 I got a fwd of a letter written by OceanLink Mgmt (a fund that I've never heard of). I won't attach the doc but will paste the important parts. Not supporting the conclusions but I thought it was helpful for the facts (some that I've confirmed with colleagues in China). The letter was dated March 1. Here we go: ------------ Like most Chinese, we have been tracking and analyzing the Coronavirus development fairly closely in the past two months. In fact, most of us spent our entire January physically in China (one of us is still there) and experienced the draconian measures that were taken to halt the spread of the virus. These experiences and a careful analysis of what we view to be the most credible facts helped us reach the uncomforting conclusion that while China has effectively contained the virus, the rest of the world is severely under-estimating its effects and is hopelessly outmatched in the fight against this pandemic. We believe the Coronavirus is unlikely to be contained in most countries; and, unless it conveniently mutates to become less infectious, or a vaccine is magically created in a few months, the virus will soon infect a meaningful percentage of the global population with a fatality rate that is higher than most current predictions. Any effective efforts at containment will necessarily cause a supply shock across the globe, virtually guaranteeing a global recession, even complete economic ruin and political instability for some of the most affected countries. By the time this is over, everyone’s life will be different. --------------------- However, regardless of how the government chooses to deal with data disclosure, it is inevitable that the real number of cases would be under-counted for a virus like the Corona where a meaningful (10%+) percentage of the infected show no symptoms and a further 70% only experience mild flu-like symptoms, right in the middle of the flu season! Many of these people simply never felt the need to get tested at a hospital and recovered from home instead. Wuhan, however, is the only place in the world where government workers are knocking on every door to test every family to ensure that those that were initially missed could be picked up, so the ratio of missed cases to total infected population is likely to be lower in Hubei relative to other Chinese provinces and other countries. Our best case is that 30% of the infected in Wuhan simply recovered without ever getting tested, which brings the total infected population to over 80,000, just under 1% of Wuhan’s population. And all this happened in just a month! Some experts in China estimated that had the government imposed the quarantines just one week later, the number of infected could have easily surpassed one million people. ------------------- What is more concerning is that Wuhan does not represent the worst case for other countries that fail to contain the Coronavirus early on. In fact, it represents the best case. Wuhan is not some random village; it is the most affluent city in Central China. In 2019, Wuhan’s GDP per capita was USD $22,000, and measured in PPP, it was USD $40,000 - comparable to many countries in Western Europe. Wuhan’s healthcare system is the best in the region and highly modern. In addition, Wuhan and all of its citizens were completely quarantined just a month after the virus started mass-spreading, which ultimately limited the number of infected to less than 1% of the city’s population. When the rest of China realized the grim situation there, they acted with unprecedented speed to assist the city, airlifting more than 32,000 doctors and nurses into Wuhan within 3 weeks of the outbreak, building and converting multiple hospitals to create over 10,000 hospital beds within two weeks, all the while keeping medical supplies constantly flowing in. Even then, medical workers were completely overwhelmed. Several were reported to have died from exhaustion and thousands contracted the disease even while wearing protective uniforms. Despite these efforts, the fight against the outbreak is still ongoing in Wuhan. It should then be understood that Wuhan 2.5% fatality rate was achieved despite China’s all-of-society best efforts, and not representative of how high fatality rates could reach in an uncontrolled outbreak which is starting to take place in many other countries. The implications of this are very bad for the rest of the world. Very few countries can provide the same kind of resources that Wuhan obtained from the rest of China. No infected country so far has quarantined every citizen at home the same way Wuhan did. No country other than China is capable of building new hospitals in just days. And almost every country will soon run short on essential medical supplies such as masks and hazmat suits, because China is using all of them! In fact, in countries with poor healthcare systems, we believe the ultimate fatality rate will be closer to 5 – 10%. A recent report written by the WHO investigation team in China reveals that out of all the patients diagnosed, 5% were in critical condition and required artificial respiration, as a result of completely losing lung capacity to pneumonia; another 15% were severe cases that required highly concentrated oxygen to maintain normal breathing. All of this requires intensive care. Unfortunately, most countries only have one hospital bed for every 200 – 1,000 people; most of those beds will still need to be used for other patients (car accidents, cancer patients, etc) and are not designed for infectious diseases to begin with. In a full outbreak where 10% or more of the population becomes infected, most countries will only have enough hospital capacity to provide care to a tiny minority of the severe cases, and that’s assuming the medical workers don’t get infected themselves. In reality, we are already seeing mass infections of hospital employees in places like Iran. By most reports, the Iranian healthcare infrastructure is crumbling and it’s unlikely that anything can be done at this point to prevent a full-on national crisis. In developed countries, the fatality rate may ultimately be lower as effective treatments are found, but these will still need to be administered in intensive care. If large outbreaks occur, hospital capacity will very quickly be in shortage, so a significant part of the severe cases will still go untreated. ------ Worse, the fatality rate itself doesn’t tell the whole story. This is because many among those who developed severe symptoms from Coronavirus but ultimately recovered have lost a significant portion of their lung capacity to fibrosis and as a result have reduced life expectancies. ------------------ Another piece of evidence demonstrating the ubiquitous nature of the Coronavirus is the Shincheonji Church, a local cult responsible for the initial outbreak in South Korea. The church ignored warnings from the government and continued its gatherings after hundreds of cases had already surfaced in its home city of Daegu. It was reported that of the 1,900 cult members tracked down by the government this week, 1,551, or a full 81%, tested positive for Coronavirus. In other words, if no containment measures are taken, given enough time, 100% of the population can and will be infected. That is why the Coronavirus must be contained. The politicians who are arguing for abandonment of containment efforts and the possibility of allowing the Coronavirus to become endemic like the flu, in our opinion, are not properly informed of its ability to do harm. They only need to go to Wuhan to see its devastating effects.
meiroy Posted March 15, 2020 Posted March 15, 2020 We should build out some of those influenza-specific hospitals that China has. Seems like they're damn useful. South Korea is doing more than fine without all those extreme measures. Hospital beds per 1,000 population (2015) S.Korea: 13 China: 3.9 Italy: 3.2 USA: 2.8 Canada: 2.6 Source: OECD Health Statistics https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/health-environment/article/3075164/south-koreas-coronavirus-response-opposite-china-and
Kaegi2011 Posted March 15, 2020 Posted March 15, 2020 A few other data points in speaking with a colleague in China. Take it for what it's worth: 1) Wuhan was totally overwhelmed at the beginning, thus building of these massive facilities in 2 days. Even then, the system was over run with demand. A lot of people were asked to go home b/c there was nowhere to house them. Many died at home in front of loved ones. Due to extraordinary demand, cremation people can't even come get the corpse in a reasonable time, and many were put outside on the street for obvious health reasons. 2) Entire families were wiped out (many in China still live with their parents until they have families of their own), so it's not just older people getting sick. Seems like some areas of Europe is seeing this as well in terms of distribution of severe cases vs. age. 3) Lockdown was extreme - you literally cannot leave your building. Every building had a cop in front, and you cannot leave. They also tell you that if you do leave the building through a window or something, you cannot go back through the front door. 4) Groceries were delivered to each household with standard stuff every few days. Don't need tampons? Doesn't matter - you get it. 5) In total ~1% of the Wuhan population was infected and it seem to not have gone endemic.
LC Posted March 15, 2020 Posted March 15, 2020 Did I misinterpret or misrepresent anything here? I think you have an excellent understanding of this at this point, and apparently able to put it down on paper better then me. Thanks. Just trying to make sure I fully understand the various perspectives. Again, apologies again for the comment before re: the profession you've chosen. It meant no disrepect. I do want to ask you - if you were to take a step back and think about your position, where could you be wrong? I could be wrong by how much of a hit this will be to the ICU/need for respirator, ie breakdown of health system. I can only think back to working during the H1N1 outbreak and the 17-18 flu season and that volume load which was ~15 million cases if I recall correctly. The system was stretched, but did not collapse, My opinion is the virus has been here for 6 weeks/months and cases are vastly under reported. So in my mind we are currently in an environment of where many think we will be from documented patient 1 say 4-6 weeks from now, already! Its in this mind frame I have a hard time rectifying a wickedly high death rate and medical system collapse if we are operating in this environment currently. I certainly could be wrong on this, I hope I'm right of course. We will see. The fact of the matter is if the cases are severely under estimated and we are handling it now maybe we are further along on the curve then we think, and handling it fine. Again, hope Im not wrong. We will see I guess.... Here's a question. I am no medical professional so maybe this is a silly question: Let's assume you are correct - coronavirus in some form has been in N America, say since January or early Feb. Therefore people have been experiencing flu-like symptoms and/or perhaps slightly more elevated symptoms than a normal flu. And some must have been going to a doctor or perhaps hospital. Doctors perform a flu test which would presumably come back negative. Would there have been some communication that doctors/hospitals are noticing a pretty decent amount of patients with flu-like or slightly elevated flu-like symptoms but testing negative for the flu? An amount of patient records to corroborate this? I am not saying it's impossible - frankly it may very well be true, and is therefore worth exploring - so would there some records to prove/disprove this?
investmd Posted March 15, 2020 Posted March 15, 2020 If you think it’s bad in the US then we’re really fcked up here in Canada. No travel ban yet, lax airport security, no emergency declared, lowest hospital bed per capita, very limited hospital capacity, colder climate.. Economy-wise, mostly o&g and commodities, no big tech, housing bubble.. Hmmm...Canada does have an advisory against international travel, does have recommendation for self quarantining for 2 weeks post international travel, doctors have been requested not to travel abroad so that they can be present to help treat, governments have mandated that schools be closed in New Brunswick, Quebec, Ontario & Manitoba, there is no formal entertainment going on - restrictions on gatherings have been placed...@ the grassroots level in Canada I find no one is shaking hands, meetings are being cancelled, there is alcohol based sanitizer everywhere.... Hospital capacity is what it is. However there are plans in place for closing OR's and turning them into ICUs if necessary. Bank of Canada has slashed interest rates, government has issued liquidity. Overall, from what I can see Canada is doing an exemplary job. Re the bolded part: investmd, I don't know where you live. Here in Ottawa, our surgery wait times are already unacceptably long. Turning ORs into ICUs will make them even longer. Hip and knee replacements can wait, I guess. What about cancer? The Ottawa Hospital is struggling to meet Ontario target times for certain types of cancer surgeries. My understanding is that OR availability is the main bottleneck. You seem to think that turning ORs into ICUs is not a big deal. Why is that? Clarifying, yes, turning ORs into ICUs is a big deal. However, in case of pandemic the most urgent have to be taken care of first. Elective surgery may be cancelled for many reasons including the fact that they don't want people coming in for elective surgery to get infected with the coronavirus. So outpatient procedures may continue, but procedures requiring hospital stay may be cancelled. We are not there yet. My point is that Canada is doing an excellent job of trying to be prepared and flattening the curve. So far so good.
kab60 Posted March 15, 2020 Posted March 15, 2020 Since the GFC it seems monetary policy has been about the only tool used. But that toolbox is very limited now. If politicians start using fiscal policy, ie infrastructure spending, do you expect inflation and rates to go up? Wondering whether now might be a good time to lock in a 0,5 pct loan for 30 years (have variable now). If rates rise, it can be called below par.
Guest Posted March 15, 2020 Posted March 15, 2020 All I know is that if you're going to play this game, you have to be able to withstand those 50%+ drops. Paul, I was actually thinking of the C Munger quote earlier this week as we saw such crazy volatility: "In fact, you can argue that if you're not willing to react with equanimity to a market price decline of 50% two or three times a century you're not fit to be a common shareholder, and you deserve the mediocre result you're going to get compared to the people who do have the temperament, who can be more philosophical about these market fluctuations" Haha yeah, I think about that one too. We've already had 2 of them this century so we should be good for a while! :P It seems like the deep swings happen more frequently since the Fed has started to fiddle with the market over the past 30 years more and more. Though the real economy has actually held up better. I don't think the markets dropped by 50% in the 70s (though it was close).
Dalal.Holdings Posted March 15, 2020 Posted March 15, 2020 So at this point you have two options as an investor: 1) Trust some guesses/major assumptions based solely on anecdotes from people that millions in U.S. have been silently infected for months now 2) Go by what is being witnessed in other countries at this very moment and acknowledge that the United States is merely a couple of weeks behind (relatively early in the course of epidemic) The more probabilistically likely scenario is obvious to me. A majority may show mild/flu like symptoms but even if a minority get very sick, we would certainly have seen a spike in unexplained ARDS cases across U.S. if millions were infected months ago... Inversion tells me #1 is most likely wrong.
Liberty Posted March 15, 2020 Posted March 15, 2020 Second podcast about COVID19 by Peter Attia (released March 15): https://peterattiamd.com/covid-19-update-03152020/
minten Posted March 15, 2020 Posted March 15, 2020 Does anybody have any data on spread on a regional level in Italy by any chance? Italy placed certain parts of Lombardy on lockdown from February 22nd. If those measures were effective, the statistics should show it. It's the ultimate test case, as all other serious containment measures in Italy and the rest of Europe were only taken five days ago at the earliest, so won't show in the new case statistics for five/seven days. If the lockdown was succesful here, it seems more likely it will be succesful elsewhere. Found it.. The village where it all started in Italy (and which has been in lockdown by far the longest) has been infection free for the last two days. In the Piedmont region the contagion curve is decreasing, seems like past actions taken are proving to be effective not only in Asia, but in Italy as well, as long as you account for the delay between measures being taken and actual cases going down.. Considering the fact Italy's new cases and number of deaths (despite terrible on a micro-level, don't get me wrong) have not been growing exponentially at all (like in many of the doomsday models) even before the lockdown kicks in in the stats, it sounds like we're a number of days, maybe a week away, from the lockdown of the entire country having its effect and new cases should decrease.
orthopa Posted March 15, 2020 Posted March 15, 2020 Did I misinterpret or misrepresent anything here? I think you have an excellent understanding of this at this point, and apparently able to put it down on paper better then me. Thanks. Just trying to make sure I fully understand the various perspectives. Again, apologies again for the comment before re: the profession you've chosen. It meant no disrepect. I do want to ask you - if you were to take a step back and think about your position, where could you be wrong? I could be wrong by how much of a hit this will be to the ICU/need for respirator, ie breakdown of health system. I can only think back to working during the H1N1 outbreak and the 17-18 flu season and that volume load which was ~15 million cases if I recall correctly. The system was stretched, but did not collapse, My opinion is the virus has been here for 6 weeks/months and cases are vastly under reported. So in my mind we are currently in an environment of where many think we will be from documented patient 1 say 4-6 weeks from now, already! Its in this mind frame I have a hard time rectifying a wickedly high death rate and medical system collapse if we are operating in this environment currently. I certainly could be wrong on this, I hope I'm right of course. We will see. The fact of the matter is if the cases are severely under estimated and we are handling it now maybe we are further along on the curve then we think, and handling it fine. Again, hope Im not wrong. We will see I guess.... Here's a question. I am no medical professional so maybe this is a silly question: Let's assume you are correct - coronavirus in some form has been in N America, say since January or early Feb. Therefore people have been experiencing flu-like symptoms and/or perhaps slightly more elevated symptoms than a normal flu. And some must have been going to a doctor or perhaps hospital. Doctors perform a flu test which would presumably come back negative. Would there have been some communication that doctors/hospitals are noticing a pretty decent amount of patients with flu-like or slightly elevated flu-like symptoms but testing negative for the flu? An amount of patient records to corroborate this? I am not saying it's impossible - frankly it may very well be true, and is therefore worth exploring - so would there some records to prove/disprove this? This is what has been happening for weeks, and weeks. There has been communication between myself, others, and regional ERs regarding this exact subject. In all reality knowing whether or not these people had corona would not have changed the symptoms. How do I know already? NO ONE HAS DIED AND ICUS ARE NOT FULL! You could retrospectively go back and look at the data but who would you convince? Look at the media/social media. They want closure, NOW! They will only accept a positive results. How would we know? Antibody testing via blood! Would show all of those recovered. Question I have for those constantly citing Italy as a reason for very high concern. The virus is in what? 170 countries now? All over the god damn world. Why is Italy the rule and not the exception?
Dalal.Holdings Posted March 15, 2020 Posted March 15, 2020 Found it.. The village where it all started in Italy (and which has been in lockdown by far the longest) has been infection free for the last two days. In the Piedmont region the contagion curve is decreasing, seems like past actions taken are proving to be effective not only in Asia, but in Italy as well, as long as you account for the delay between measures being taken and actual cases going down.. Considering the fact Italy's new cases and number of deaths (despite terrible on a micro-level, don't get me wrong) have not been growing exponentially at all (like in many of the doomsday models) even before the lockdown kicks in in the stats, it sounds like we're a number of days, maybe a week away, from the lockdown of the entire country having its effect and new cases should decrease. Incorrect.
minten Posted March 15, 2020 Posted March 15, 2020 Found it.. The village where it all started in Italy (and which has been in lockdown by far the longest) has been infection free for the last two days. In the Piedmont region the contagion curve is decreasing, seems like past actions taken are proving to be effective not only in Asia, but in Italy as well, as long as you account for the delay between measures being taken and actual cases going down.. Considering the fact Italy's new cases and number of deaths (despite terrible on a micro-level, don't get me wrong) have not been growing exponentially at all (like in many of the doomsday models) even before the lockdown kicks in in the stats, it sounds like we're a number of days, maybe a week away, from the lockdown of the entire country having its effect and new cases should decrease. Incorrect. OK, sure. Let's exchange data Italy new cases: March 11: 2313 March 12: 2651 March 13: 2547 March 14: 3497 Italy deaths: March 11: 196 March 12: 189 March 13: 250 March 14: 175 What's yours?
Dalal.Holdings Posted March 15, 2020 Posted March 15, 2020 The U.S. has a flu surveillance system that is in place. It looks out for reports of flu-like symptoms at healthcare sites around the country. There has been a recent increase in reports of symptoms similar to flu. It's strange that those arguing that the virus has been here for months and "millions already have it" cannot explain why there was no increase months ago when millions were supposedly catching this virus. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-14/flu-watchdog-spots-more-with-fever-and-cough-but-it-s-not-flu?srnd=premium A U.S. disease surveillance network that monitors doctors’ offices and hospitals has picked up a rise in people with a fever and cough, but who don’t test positive for influenza. It’s not clear if the increase represents a rise in coronavirus cases that are being missed because of a shortage of testing in the U.S. It’s possible that worried people with some other respiratory illness are showing up for care in greater numbers. But it’s another piece of evidence as academics, public health experts and the government try to answer what none knows so far — how many people in the U.S. have been infected by the new coronavirus, and how fast is it spreading? The reports come from states as well as the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s national flu surveillance network. Along with people who test positive for the flu, the networks track patients who show up with “influenza-like illness,” defined as a fever of more than 100 degrees Fahrenheit plus a cough, sore throat, or both. Those are the same symptoms as coronavirus -- as well as other illnesses.
orthopa Posted March 15, 2020 Posted March 15, 2020 So at this point you have two options as an investor: 1) Trust some guesses/major assumptions based solely on anecdotes from people that millions in U.S. have been silently infected for months now 2) Go by what is being witnessed in other countries at this very moment and acknowledge that the United States is merely a couple of weeks behind (relatively early in the course of epidemic) The more probabilistically likely scenario is obvious to me. A majority may show mild/flu like symptoms but even if a minority get very sick, we would certainly have seen a spike in unexplained ARDS cases across U.S. if millions were infected months ago... Inversion tells me #1 is most likely wrong. Your right. 2 options. Do you think Cuomo is going on record saying that thousands likely had the virus, recovered, and didn't know it if it was highly unlikely? In this climate? At this time? Thats pretty ballsy isnt it? Maybe he was joking?
Spekulatius Posted March 15, 2020 Posted March 15, 2020 Interesting - spat over US government attempts to entice a German biotech company working on infectious disease vaccines to develop a vaccine exclusively for the US: https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/15/coronavirus-germany-tries-to-stop-us-luring-away-firm-seeking-vaccine.html #MAGA? I guess that’s the government equivalent of people hoarding hand sanitizer?
Dalal.Holdings Posted March 15, 2020 Posted March 15, 2020 So at this point you have two options as an investor: 1) Trust some guesses/major assumptions based solely on anecdotes from people that millions in U.S. have been silently infected for months now 2) Go by what is being witnessed in other countries at this very moment and acknowledge that the United States is merely a couple of weeks behind (relatively early in the course of epidemic) The more probabilistically likely scenario is obvious to me. A majority may show mild/flu like symptoms but even if a minority get very sick, we would certainly have seen a spike in unexplained ARDS cases across U.S. if millions were infected months ago... Inversion tells me #1 is most likely wrong. Your right. 2 options. Do you think Cuomo is going on record saying that thousands likely had the virus, recovered, and didn't know it if it was highly unlikely? In this climate? At this time? Thats pretty ballsy isnt it? Maybe he was joking? Q for u: if millions caught this month ago and it is only 2-3x deadlier than the flu (an underestimate based on our current data), how many people would have died without a formal diagnosis (since we wouldn't have been able to diagnose) in the past 2 mo? How many ICU patients with ARDS would we have had? In order for your theory to work, you must be arguing that COVID19 is much much LESS deadlier than the flu <<< 0.1%. That is a bold statement to be making now and I know what I think of the odds of that being even remotely true.
Liberty Posted March 15, 2020 Posted March 15, 2020 This is great visualization: https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/world/corona-simulator/
Dalal.Holdings Posted March 15, 2020 Posted March 15, 2020 This is great visualization: https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/world/corona-simulator/ That is the correct way to look at this--stochastic simulation. Here's another: People who are trying to project in their heads are kidding themselves.
orthopa Posted March 15, 2020 Posted March 15, 2020 So at this point you have two options as an investor: 1) Trust some guesses/major assumptions based solely on anecdotes from people that millions in U.S. have been silently infected for months now 2) Go by what is being witnessed in other countries at this very moment and acknowledge that the United States is merely a couple of weeks behind (relatively early in the course of epidemic) The more probabilistically likely scenario is obvious to me. A majority may show mild/flu like symptoms but even if a minority get very sick, we would certainly have seen a spike in unexplained ARDS cases across U.S. if millions were infected months ago... Inversion tells me #1 is most likely wrong. Your right. 2 options. Do you think Cuomo is going on record saying that thousands likely had the virus, recovered, and didn't know it if it was highly unlikely? In this climate? At this time? Thats pretty ballsy isnt it? Maybe he was joking? Q for u: if millions caught this month ago and it is only 2-3x deadlier than the flu (an underestimate based on our current data), how many people would have died without a formal diagnosis (since we wouldn't have been able to diagnose) in the past 2 mo? How many ICU patients with ARDS would we have had? In order for your theory to work, you must be arguing that COVID19 is much much LESS deadlier than the flu <<< 0.1%. That is a bold statement to be making now and I know what I think of the odds of that being even remotely true. I think you just typed out the answer. Why aren't we seeing more dead people/ARDS? You cant say this virus spreads rapidly in one breath and will kill everyone and on the same hand keep saying, its coming, its coming, its coming. How can you use current data? S. Korea has 51 million people but tested 140,000. Thats .27% of the population. How can you honestly use that data? Your going to extrapolate that for the other 99.63% of the population? Really? Secondly I want an honest opinion about Cuomo. Why would he come out and say that? In NYC. During a pandemic with massive panic in society?
Dalal.Holdings Posted March 15, 2020 Posted March 15, 2020 So at this point you have two options as an investor: 1) Trust some guesses/major assumptions based solely on anecdotes from people that millions in U.S. have been silently infected for months now 2) Go by what is being witnessed in other countries at this very moment and acknowledge that the United States is merely a couple of weeks behind (relatively early in the course of epidemic) The more probabilistically likely scenario is obvious to me. A majority may show mild/flu like symptoms but even if a minority get very sick, we would certainly have seen a spike in unexplained ARDS cases across U.S. if millions were infected months ago... Inversion tells me #1 is most likely wrong. Your right. 2 options. Do you think Cuomo is going on record saying that thousands likely had the virus, recovered, and didn't know it if it was highly unlikely? In this climate? At this time? Thats pretty ballsy isnt it? Maybe he was joking? Q for u: if millions caught this month ago and it is only 2-3x deadlier than the flu (an underestimate based on our current data), how many people would have died without a formal diagnosis (since we wouldn't have been able to diagnose) in the past 2 mo? How many ICU patients with ARDS would we have had? In order for your theory to work, you must be arguing that COVID19 is much much LESS deadlier than the flu <<< 0.1%. That is a bold statement to be making now and I know what I think of the odds of that being even remotely true. I think you just typed out the answer. Why aren't we seeing more dead people/ARDS? You cant say this virus spreads rapidly in one breath and will kill everyone and on the same hand keep saying, its coming, its coming, its coming. How can you use current data? S. Korea has 51 million people but tested 140,000. Thats .27% of the population. How can you honestly use that data? Your going to extrapolate that for the other 99.63% of the population? Really? Secondly I want an honest opinion about Cuomo. Why would he come out and say that? In NYC. During a pandemic with massive panic in society? I don't look to elected officials to form objective opinions about reality, leaving aside the fact that it is in their interest that people in their area take crises seriously. The financial markets are offering you many opportunities to get rich beyond your wildest dreams right now if you are really as confident as you seem about this.
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