Dalal.Holdings Posted April 7 Posted April 7 Don't think anyone needs bilateral agreements with Iran during peacetime... UAE and Oman on the other half of the Strait. Rules about coastal/international waters/etc means Iran cannot have unilateral control of the Strait in peacetime. The only reason they have control now is because they can threaten to attack any ship that doesn't comply. Good luck doing that in peace time.
SharperDingaan Posted April 7 Posted April 7 (edited) Peacetime does not remove the need for ongoing protection/security, and keeping both the SOH and the Red Sea open when peace suddenly changes to conflict. Somebody has to do it, that cost needs to be covered by users, and it's better if it's done via a coalition arrangement (UN, etc.) vs any individual country. The US is just pissed 'cause it doesn't want Iran providing the protection, and the collected tolls paying for damages throughout the Gulf .... as a result of the war. Those tolls should be going to the US/Israel to recover the costs of the war effort !!! . SD Edited April 7 by SharperDingaan
Dalal.Holdings Posted April 7 Posted April 7 5 hours ago, SharperDingaan said: Peacetime does not remove the need for ongoing protection/security, and keeping both the SOH and the Red Sea open when peace suddenly changes to conflict. Somebody has to do it, that cost needs to be covered by users, and it's better if it's done via a coalition arrangement (UN, etc.) vs any individual country. The US is just pissed 'cause it doesn't want Iran providing the protection, and the collected tolls paying for damages throughout the Gulf .... as a result of the war. Those tolls should be going to the US/Israel to recover the costs of the war effort !!! . SD LOL "Iran providing protection"...from Iran??? Makes no sense.
SharperDingaan Posted April 7 Posted April 7 (edited) 16 minutes ago, Dalal.Holdings said: LOL "Iran providing protection"...from Iran??? Makes no sense. I live in the real world Pay our thugs (Iran) to NOT fire ship-killers at your tankers. No different to the shop keeper paying a weekly cut to avoid broken windows, a hassled workforce, and mysterious fires on a weekly basis. Pay the 1% 'cause its cheaper than replacing windows and fire repairs/insurance. Just another cost of doing business. SD Edited April 7 by SharperDingaan
Dalal.Holdings Posted April 7 Posted April 7 https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/iran-war-2026-trump-deadline-latest-news?mod=WSJ_home_mediumtopper_pos_1 Quote President Trump said he agreed to suspend attacks on Iran for two weeks subject to the “immediate” reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, pointing to progress on a 10-point proposal from Tehran. Lol...
Dalal.Holdings Posted April 7 Posted April 7 3 hours ago, SharperDingaan said: I live in the real world Pay our thugs (Iran) to NOT fire ship-killers at your tankers. No different to the shop keeper paying a weekly cut to avoid broken windows, a hassled workforce, and mysterious fires on a weekly basis. Pay the 1% 'cause its cheaper than replacing windows and fire repairs/insurance. Just another cost of doing business. SD Sounds like you've been watching too many mafia movies
Dalal.Holdings Posted April 7 Posted April 7 https://www.nytimes.com/live/2026/04/07/world/iran-war-trump-news Quote The United States and Iran reached an 11th-hour cease-fire deal on Tuesday evening, hours after President Trump threatened to start wiping out Iran’s “whole civilization” if it did not allow commercial shipping to pass safely through the Strait of Hormuz. The agreement was announced by Mr. Trump in a post on social media hours after Pakistan, a mediator in the dispute, urged Mr. Trump to stand down from the 8 p.m. Eastern time deadline he had set for Iran to accede to his demands. Pakistan proposed that each side observe a two-week cease-fire, and that during that time Iran allow oil, gas and other vessels to proceed unmolested through the economically vital waterway. The cease-fire buys both sides time to try reach a longer-term end to the war, which began at the end of February with the United States and Israel subjecting Iran to a withering military assault. Pour one out for oil bulls who were praying for WW3...
Gregmal Posted April 7 Posted April 7 Well this is what happens when people pile into a supply/demand based commodity on....words.
Spekulatius Posted April 7 Posted April 7 6 minutes ago, Dalal.Holdings said: Sounds like you've been watching too many mafia movies We are currently living through one.
backtothebeach Posted April 7 Posted April 7 Dang, I knew it. Was looking at some OXY puts today, but chickened out.
Dalal.Holdings Posted April 7 Posted April 7 2 minutes ago, Spekulatius said: We are currently living through one. Very simple then in Mafioso language: The Strait will be open during peace time because the 5 families of New York (USA, Europe, China, Japan, India) want it that way. "War is bad for business."
Dalal.Holdings Posted April 8 Posted April 8 LOL, they opened it... Quote Oil plunged below $100 a barrel after the Iran agreed to temporarily reopen the Strait of Hormuz as part of a two-week ceasefire agreement with the US and Israel. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-04-07/latest-oil-market-news-and-analysis-for-april-8?srnd=homepage-americas
ratiman Posted April 8 Posted April 8 (edited) Even if Iran does get a transit toll, which sounds likely, it probably won't last long. Iran's neighbors have too many options and are highly incentivized to avoid it even if it's just $1/barrel . The neighbors would rather choose a more expensive overland option if the alternative is funding Iran's military. Edited April 8 by ratiman
Dalal.Holdings Posted April 8 Posted April 8 Seems a lot of ships going to be going through in the coming days and a lot of pent up oil & gas supply going to be dumped onto markets...
Blake Hampton Posted April 8 Posted April 8 If you get excited by rising prices and depressed by falling ones, specifically when you’re a net buyer of securities, you are not investing. You’re simply just another person within the crowd.
Dalal.Holdings Posted April 8 Posted April 8 1 minute ago, Blake Hampton said: If you get excited by rising prices and depressed by falling ones, specifically when you’re a net buyer of securities, you are not investing. You’re simply just another person within the crowd. Fortunately I bought a bunch of stocks that were on sale in the past few weeks...did you? And what about folks like you that get excited about doomsday scenarios and depressed when they don't pan out ?
Dalal.Holdings Posted April 8 Posted April 8 (edited) Well hey, if Oman agrees to impose a toll, then both sides of the Strait are accounted for--this could actually occur (as opposed to Iran having a unilateral toll on the Strait). Guess it'll be a tax for China, India, Europe, Australia, Japan to pay. If they don't want to pay it, they'll have to to something about it. Fortunately the U.S. is fossil fuel independent and it doesn't really matter for America. Still think it's very unlikely this "toll" lasts beyond short term. Other Gulf States and major powers unlikely to tolerate it. Not to mention all the "international law" believerrrs Edited April 8 by Dalal.Holdings
SharperDingaan Posted April 8 Posted April 8 Looks like tomorrow could be a great day for shopping Good luck. SD
SharperDingaan Posted April 8 Posted April 8 (edited) The need for the toll has been established. Now it's just a haggle as to how much, for how long, and who gets it. Have to think an initial 10 years, then a renegotiation to accommodate changed times. SD Edited April 8 by SharperDingaan
dipod Posted April 8 Posted April 8 7 hours ago, SharperDingaan said: Looks like tomorrow could be a great day for shopping Good luck. SD I imagine you mean O&G related issues. Seeing through the current euphoria (and I am glad things did not escalate further), energy will still be expensive for the intermediate term.
Spekulatius Posted April 8 Posted April 8 It’s a bit early to shop for energy stocks, imo . Let the crude prices settle down and those that bought the stocks as a macro hedge sell. It’s going to take a while. The tolls doesn’t just apply to energy exports either, it applies to all ships traveling to the straight for Hormuz. Think about it as an import export tax for the Gulf states . It’s probably going to small enough not to annoy anyone and won’t be in place for 10 years either. Of course everything could fall to pieces tomorrow and we get another surge, but that’s tough to predict and would not be a game that I would be willing to play. I frankly would look at prediction markets to handicap this as I don’t think individuals have an edge here. I still have some PBR A but sold a good chunk of it. the stock has done what I hoped it would do.
SharperDingaan Posted April 8 Posted April 8 (edited) 1 hour ago, dipod said: I imagine you mean O&G related issues. Seeing through the current euphoria (and I am glad things did not escalate further), energy will still be expensive for the intermediate term. We sold off 75% of our o/g holdings in the last few days, and now have the opportunity to roll back into the same positions for materially less. Hence the shopping. We aren't going back to USD 60-70 WTI anytime soon, and it will be bumpy. Highly likely WTI goes back over 100 for a time before it fades down to 80. Price shocks have already occurred, and more will be coming in the various economic sectors. Higher costs should be expected. SD Edited April 8 by SharperDingaan
Gregmal Posted April 8 Posted April 8 1 hour ago, SharperDingaan said: We sold off 75% of our o/g holdings in the last few days, and now have the opportunity to roll back into the same positions for materially less. Hence the shopping. We aren't going back to USD 60-70 WTI anytime soon, and it will be bumpy. Highly likely WTI goes back over 100 for a time before it fades down to 80. Price shocks have already occurred, and more will be coming in the various economic sectors. Higher costs should be expected. SD You need to realize most don’t do it like you do LOL. You’d spent months if not years patiently accumulating for the pot of gold moment the last four weeks. Whereas most, see oil go from $65 to 100 and think “gee, energy’s ripping I should buy energy stocks because prices are high so profitability must be high”… Its an interesting phenomena that seems to exist in a lot of cyclical markets, but most noticeably in O&G.
SharperDingaan Posted April 8 Posted April 8 (edited) 8 hours ago, Gregmal said: Whereas most, see oil go from $65 to 100 and think “gee, energy’s ripping I should buy energy stocks because prices are high so profitability must be high”… Its an interesting phenomena that seems to exist in a lot of cyclical markets, but most noticeably in O&G. +1 Most people will just never get that much of this is just time (short vs long) arbitrage, project management (limited term engagement), and selecting a boat fit for purpose (don't always need a Suncor). Most will also never get that the rest of it is primarily risk management; keeping the funny money, always taking money off the table, and dissipating the rising toxicity (you aren't a commodity 'Jesus'). Treat it as a business, and a lot of things fall into place. Given that most are utter sh1te at building businesses ... the poor success rate should not be unexpected, and the more bunnies the better SD Edited April 8 by SharperDingaan
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