SharperDingaan Posted March 18 Posted March 18 (edited) Always refreshing to have some facts ... vs US spin Since March 1, the day after the U.S. and Israel started bombing Iran and killed the Ayatollah, Iran’s crude oil exports have averaged around 1.2 million barrels per day (bpd), according to data from Kpler cited by Bloomberg. That’s not a major slump compared to about 1.5 million bpd in exports from the Strait of Hormuz before the war. https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Tehrans-Oil-Exports-Remain-Resilient-as-Iranian-Crude-Passes-Hormuz.html 142% more (1.7M b/d) should Iran choose to allow the UAE to keep the Fujairah facility open ... A lot quicker, and more reliable that Orange Boy begging for armed ship escorts; and being told to f*** o** Fujairah exported more than 1.7 million barrels per day of crude oil and refined fuels on average last year, according to Kpler data, a volume equal to about 1.7 per cent of daily world demand. The port is located on the Gulf of Oman, approximately 70 nautical miles from the Strait of Hormuz, which is effectively closed due to the Iran war, increasing the importance of Fujairah’s flows to the global market during the current conflict. https://www.malaymail.com/news/money/2026/03/18/drone-strikes-expose-reliance-on-uaes-fujairah-port-as-a-critical-middle-east-oil-bypass/213052 WTI futures now > USD 72/bbl all the way out through July 2027. Gotta love the US treasury manipulation . Physical spot Dubai Crude now at USD 127.86/bbl vs the Cushing USD 98.73/bbl SD Edited March 18 by SharperDingaan
rogermunibond Posted March 18 Posted March 18 @SharperDingaan thanks so fading the crude spike hasn't been a very successful trade. Seems like the futures market is finally coming around to what physical oil prices have been screaming.
SharperDingaan Posted March 18 Posted March 18 1 hour ago, rogermunibond said: @SharperDingaan thanks so fading the crude spike hasn't been a very successful trade. Seems like the futures market is finally coming around to what physical oil prices have been screaming. The trade isn't the crude spike, it's the futures curve moving up and out for 12-18 months . Good already, a lot better 3 months from now , but spectacular if BTC also falls down a well . A month from now, 'security of supply' will be top of mind. Rotation into the WCSB. SD
Dalal.Holdings Posted March 18 Posted March 18 https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/us-iran-war-gulf-states-strikes-7f12acb2?mod=WSJ_home_mediumtopper_pos_4 One thing that Iran has done is completely alienate itself among its Gulf neighbors... Quote Battered by Iranian strikes and the disruption of the Strait of Hormuz, the United Arab Emirates and some fellow Persian Gulf states have come to view Iran’s theocracy as an existential enemy. They now want the regime they once courted to be neutered, if not dismantled, when the conflict ends—so the ordeal is never repeated.
Dalal.Holdings Posted March 18 Posted March 18 https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2026/3/18/iran-allowing-more-ships-through-strait-of-hormuz-data-shows There are more vessels getting through without having to turn off their transponders—Indian, Chinese vessels. Likely allowed by Iran. Will other ship operators start flying flags of these countries to also slip through?
Dalal.Holdings Posted March 18 Posted March 18 https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/iran-us-israel-war-news-2026/card/qatar-expels-senior-iranian-diplomats-after-missile-attack-B5kPhmlKSPZVNf8cN1pS Quote Qatar Expels Senior Iranian Diplomats After Missile Attack Qatar declared the Iranian military attache and security attache persona non grata, giving them and their staff 24 hours to leave the country after an Iranian ballistic missile attack hit the industrial city housing a major liquefied natural gas refinery. The Qatari Foreign Ministry threatened to take additional actions if Iran “continued in this hostile approach.” Iran still has an ambassador in Doha, which has negotiated in the past between Washington and Tehran I don't think there will be much reconciling between Gulf countries and Iranian regime, even if this conflict ends shortly...
Marco Van Basten Posted March 18 Posted March 18 Keep in mind that there are limits to how much Iran can strangle the oil and gas production. After all, that's their trump card, and at some point, Israel may be allowed to destroy Iran's oil and gas industry if the straits are closed. If that happens, theocracy is finished in Iran.
Xerxes Posted March 19 Posted March 19 (edited) Jeff Currie never felt so much excitement than when he was in his 20s. Recorded early in the morning, I think, and that was before Israeli attack on world largest natural gas field in Iran, and Iran attack on Qatar natural gas facility. Tomorrow morning he is going to the moon. Bull market and economic expansion don’t die of old age, they die of [mispricing between physical and paper market]. … lol He is not wrong about the mispricing. By how much I don’t know. Oman crude trading at $173 apparently Edited March 19 by Xerxes
james22 Posted March 19 Author Posted March 19 https://gcaptain.com/the-hormuz-hypothesis-what-if-the-u-s-navy-isnt-in-a-hurry-to-reopen-the-strait/
Dalal.Holdings Posted March 19 Posted March 19 Donnie made a big boo boo by approving hit on Pars Field yesterday... Now Iran retaliated Bigly and he's trying to act like he had nothing to do with it Oil & gas prices will spiral upwards if anyone attacks Iran's oil infrastructure because Iran will retaliate and let loose on energy infrastructure across the Gulf...and Kharg Island has not even been hit yet. Donnie getting close to his uncle point. He needs to secure the Strait before he tries escalating Side Note: Pour one out for the poor Europeans who refuse to help secure the Strait, but will pay the biggest price for high oil prices & gas prices nonetheless thanks to their longstanding policies on energy
Dalal.Holdings Posted March 19 Posted March 19 I'm sure they are. Attacking Iran's energy infrastructure will mean oil & gas squeeze up as Iran retaliates. These attacks should be held off until Iran's capabilities are fully degraded. Did Donnie learn his lesson? We'll see.
SharperDingaan Posted March 19 Posted March 19 It would seem that Orange Boy cannot control his Israeli partner; the US supplies the weapons, air-to-air tankers, targeting, etc, etc .... yet the US knows nothing about the strike on the Iranian gas fields, until afterwards ???? Sure .... new US Sec Defense, maybe by the end of next week! The Iranian one missile hit on Yabu was a demonstration; they can disrupt it. The E-W pipeline itself is not defensible, and it is a simple matter to mine the Bab al-Mandab strait ahead of a tankers passage. Even the US treasury will not be able to keep WTI spot < USD 100/bbl . The Jones Act was suspended 'cause it's primarily only the shadow fleet tankers that are available; most everything else is tied up in the Gulf. Can't load US crude from a US facility (land/sea) for Dubai/Europe to arbitrage the price difference, on a sanctioned ship Gulf States were OK with some collateral damage, but clearly - not the destruction of major facilities and the extended shut-in of exports; this is what they pay protection money for. Typically, when protection isn't doing its job ..... lessons are enforced (temporary pull/freeze of funds), and alternatives sought. Funds flow out of the US . It's spiralling, the SOH remains closed to allied Gulf States, and the Red Sea would appear to be next. We live in interesting times. SD
SharperDingaan Posted March 19 Posted March 19 We're all friends with Iran now! Iranian sanctions about to be lifted http://xcancel.com/DropSiteNews/status/2034627104726196694#m Of course this assumes that the owners of those cargo's in the Russian and Iranian tankers, are willing to sell ... and not simply keep them for themselves. A squeeze is a terrible thing to waste SD
Dalal.Holdings Posted March 19 Posted March 19 1 hour ago, SharperDingaan said: It would seem that Orange Boy cannot control his Israeli partner; the US supplies the weapons, air-to-air tankers, targeting, etc, etc .... yet the US knows nothing about the strike on the Iranian gas fields, until afterwards ???? Sure .... new US Sec Defense, maybe by the end of next week! The Iranian one missile hit on Yabu was a demonstration; they can disrupt it. The E-W pipeline itself is not defensible, and it is a simple matter to mine the Bab al-Mandab strait ahead of a tankers passage. Even the US treasury will not be able to keep WTI spot < USD 100/bbl . The Jones Act was suspended 'cause it's primarily only the shadow fleet tankers that are available; most everything else is tied up in the Gulf. Can't load US crude from a US facility (land/sea) for Dubai/Europe to arbitrage the price difference, on a sanctioned ship Gulf States were OK with some collateral damage, but clearly - not the destruction of major facilities and the extended shut-in of exports; this is what they pay protection money for. Typically, when protection isn't doing its job ..... lessons are enforced (temporary pull/freeze of funds), and alternatives sought. Funds flow out of the US . It's spiralling, the SOH remains closed to allied Gulf States, and the Red Sea would appear to be next. We live in interesting times. SD It's possible Israel did the hit and the administration later said they approved it to save face. I'm not sure though because yesterday he said he authorized it and now that Iran retaliates, he denies it. Either way, Donnie probably learned his lesson and now going to make sure Israelis leave Iranian energy alone until/if Iran is defanged. I'm sure Gulf countries also turning the heat on Trump. But the real thing Trump is sensitive to is something he's always cared about: oil prices. They are trying everything they can to keep a lid on them. Yeah, Iran can hit Yanbu and the UAE pipeline that bypasses the Strait. They can also hit desalination plants that supply the drinking water for millions in the region. It could get real ugly. Which is why Donnie and Israel should wait until Iran is totally degraded before escalating this further.
SharperDingaan Posted March 19 Posted March 19 1 hour ago, Lotsofcoke said: Anyone looking at CVE or CNQ (Toronto)? Look at IPO, and do your DD quickly. SD
Lotsofcoke Posted March 19 Posted March 19 25 minutes ago, SharperDingaan said: Come enjoy the dark side! It's a lot more fun; the angels can wait for some other day SD You mean Inlay Oil on TSE?
Warner Posted March 19 Posted March 19 Take a look at the Canadian integrated. Crack spreads have nearly doubled, so they are going to have excellent downstream results in addition to upstream. CVE, SU, and IMO
SharperDingaan Posted March 19 Posted March 19 1 hour ago, Lotsofcoke said: You mean Inlay Oil on TSE? Inplay Oil (IPO.TO). Very small float, a 5,000 share purchase will move the market unless it is a limit order. For bigger blocks you will need to use a bought deal. Good luck! SD
Xerxes Posted March 19 Posted March 19 4 hours ago, Lotsofcoke said: Anyone looking at CVE or CNQ (Toronto)? I made my 2025 retirement contribution all in one shot during last year Liberation Day in April and all of it on CNQ. Insignificant compared to my overall portfolio, but still need to do my annual contribution,
Dalal.Holdings Posted March 19 Posted March 19 And now for the Climb Down: https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/iran-us-israel-war-news-2026 Quote A day after Israel struck facilities linked to Iran’s South Pars gas field, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said the country would hold off on future strikes there at President Trump's request. The attack and retaliatory strikes sent oil prices soaring this week.
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now