73 Reds Posted March 9 Posted March 9 2 hours ago, SharperDingaan said: It would seem that the US has panicked, and that the SOH will remain closed for much of this week. Pre release 'discussion', the Dow was trending towards an opening down 1100 points .... now it's down only 600. .. but on words only. Feeling lucky ?? The US doesn't have the heavy oil required, and those SPR releases will go to the home countries first. Unless sanctioned heavy is now allowed in quantity (Russian & Iranian), this isn't going to work. It's also a very simple matter to change ownership of both ship and cargo .... and suddenly there is no Iranian oil .... it's comes from somewhere else Stress the heavy and the cost of downstream refined product goes up .... USD 5/gallon gasoline. Great time for Canadian heavy SD What does any of this have to do with real fundamentals? Unless you are trading oil, a month or two from now why won't we be back to square one?
Dalal.Holdings Posted March 9 Posted March 9 2 minutes ago, 73 Reds said: What does any of this have to do with real fundamentals? Unless you are trading oil, a month or two from now why won't we be back to square one? Oil is a nice black swan trade. The problem is that you have to time your exit too. If the Strait reopens materially, oil likely heads lower. If the Strait remains closed, it goes higher. In the long run though, it goes lower because the Strait will not be permanently closed. There are far too many with interests in keeping it open (the entire West, Asia (incl China), the Gulf States, etc)
73 Reds Posted March 9 Posted March 9 1 minute ago, Dalal.Holdings said: Oil is a nice black swan trade. The problem is that you have to time your exit too. If the Strait reopens materially, oil likely heads lower. If the Strait remains closed, it goes higher. In the long run though, it goes lower because the Strait will not be permanently closed. There are far too many with interests in keeping it open (the entire West, Asia (incl China), the Gulf States, etc) +1
SharperDingaan Posted March 9 Posted March 9 9 minutes ago, 73 Reds said: What does any of this have to do with real fundamentals? Unless you are trading oil, a month or two from now why won't we be back to square one? At times of war .... there are no fundamentals; simply 'cause nobody has any confidence in how it ends up 'X' months from now. There is only volatility; your choice to make it either friend or foe. SD
73 Reds Posted March 9 Posted March 9 Just now, SharperDingaan said: At times of war .... there are no fundamentals; simply 'cause nobody has any confidence in how it ends up 'X' months from now. There is only volatility; your choice to make it either friend or foe. SD Nah, waiting it out will cause no harm or foul for all who are not short term traders. We've seen this movie before.
Dalal.Holdings Posted March 9 Posted March 9 https://www.wsj.com/business/energy-oil/the-billionaire-whose-ships-are-braving-missiles-in-the-strait-of-hormuz-1f43f84c Quote This week, the Greek magnate made one of the boldest plays of his 55-year tanker career: sending at least five ships through the Strait of Hormuz while war flared across the Middle East. Quote Running toward danger has minted the 79-year-old George Prokopiou a fortune since he bought his first tanker in the early 1970s https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-03-09/greek-oil-tanker-exits-hormuz-shipping-strait-with-signal-off Quote A ship hauling a million barrels of Saudi crude sailed through the Strait of Hormuz in recent days, one of the first big tankers to leave the Persian Gulf since traffic through the chokepoint all but halted. The Shenlong tanker, which is operated by Greece’s Dynacom Tankers Management Ltd., switched off its transponder in the Persian Gulf on March 4 while sailing toward Hormuz and began signaling near India’s coastline on Monday morning, ship-tracking data compiled by Bloomberg showed. The incentives to make the journey are quite high. And some might argue that the risks of said journey are falling and the insurers are mis-pricing the risks. As they say--the cure for high prices is high prices
Dalal.Holdings Posted March 9 Posted March 9 https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-03-09/macron-plans-hormuz-ship-escorts-once-conflict-calms-down Quote French President Emmanuel Macron seeks to launch a joint maritime mission to escort container ships in an effort to reopen the Strait of Hormuz once the initial phase of the war has calmed down. Even France moves to open the Strait. It seems now the French Navy is more reliable than the British Navy... A lot of oil bulls want parallels to the 1970s. The differences to today are massive--the Gulf states are slowly becoming allied against Iran and have strong interests in maintaining their exports (esp at today's prices). Saudis have a big East-West pipeline that bypasses the Gulf and allows exports on the Red Sea. Even Abu Dhabi can bypass the Strait for some of its exports... And of course now the U.S. is the biggest producer in the entire world and most countries have large reserves built up for the 1970s scenario. Methinks it's not a bad time to fade for those who rode oil up.
Gamecock-YT Posted March 9 Posted March 9 On 3/4/2026 at 4:05 AM, Dalal.Holdings said: I think that tells you a lot about where energy is likely headed after the recent spike. Up $25 in 3 trading days after you posted this? Methinks you should stop prognosticating.
Dalal.Holdings Posted March 9 Posted March 9 (edited) 7 minutes ago, Gamecock-YT said: Up $25 in 3 trading days after you posted this? Methinks you should stop prognosticating. Oh wow if you think you can predict short term prices? Why you not trading futures? And have you provided any meaningful commentary to this discussion? No. Edited March 9 by Dalal.Holdings
rogermunibond Posted March 9 Posted March 9 It took 102 days from the start of the Ukraine War for oil to peak in June 2022. Along the way the first SPR (in coordination with G7) release was announced March 1 and the largest April 7. So the oil releases from basically April to October 2022. Here we are in day 9 and there hasn't been any SPR or G7 notice yet but they have discussed. First, I don't think the oil market is as tight as 2022. Second, the major supply issues are primarily with Japan and South Korea. Second, Japan has some serious issues because USD strength is making oil price rise worse than before. Third, BOJ could intervene to strengthen yen. Fourth, the biggest beneficiary of this current situation is Russia.
SharperDingaan Posted March 9 Posted March 9 (edited) Pretty sure this wasn't in the plan ..... remove your tariffs, and maybe we will reconsider ?? The Group of Seven major industrialised powers have decided against using strategic reserves for now to counter the impact on oil prices from the Iran war. “We’re not there yet,” French Finance Minister Roland Lescure said after chairing a meeting of his G7 counterparts. “We are ready to take necessary and coordinated steps in order to stabilize markets, such as strategic stockpiling,” Lescure told reporters in Brussels. https://apnews.com/live/iran-war-israel-trump-khamenei-03-09-2026#0000019c-d31c-d9cb-ab9d-f71f198a0000 SD Edited March 9 by SharperDingaan
rogermunibond Posted March 9 Posted March 9 (edited) https://asia.nikkei.com/spotlight/iran-tensions/japan-gives-order-to-prepare-for-release-of-oil-reserves A senior Japanese lawmaker (Akira Nagatsuma) stated that officials from the Japan Organization for Metals and Energy Security (JOGMEC) at the Shibushi National Oil Storage Base received instructions on Friday (March 6 or 7) from the Agency for Natural Resources and Energy to prepare for a potential release. Japan holds one of the world’s largest emergency stockpiles: equivalent to 254 days of domestic consumption (government-owned ~146 days, private sector ~101 days, joint with producers ~7 days), totaling around 440 million barrels. This comes after Japanese oil refiners urged the government to tap reserves, as ~95% of Japan’s crude imports come from the Middle East (much via Hormuz), and disruptions risk shortages despite the buffer. Officials (including Chief Cabinet Secretary Minoru Kihara and Economy Minister Ryosei Akazawa) have emphasized no final decision or immediate release yet, monitoring continues, potentially unilaterally or coordinated with IEA partners. Edited March 9 by rogermunibond
Dalal.Holdings Posted March 9 Posted March 9 A lot of ships "disappearing" (are they reappearing?) near the Strait...
rogermunibond Posted March 9 Posted March 9 @Dalal.Holdings Iran ships through the straits as well. So far no attack on Kharq Island, so tankers are still loading. Seems like one of the biggest developments in the oil world is that medium grades are higher in price than Brent or WTI. Lack of medium/heavy crude from Saudi, UAE, etc. -- which is needed by certain refineries that have to process a higher % of medium/heavy crude.
SharperDingaan Posted March 9 Posted March 9 34 minutes ago, rogermunibond said: https://asia.nikkei.com/spotlight/iran-tensions/japan-gives-order-to-prepare-for-release-of-oil-reserves A senior Japanese lawmaker (Akira Nagatsuma) stated that officials from the Japan Organization for Metals and Energy Security (JOGMEC) at the Shibushi National Oil Storage Base received instructions on Friday (March 6 or 7) from the Agency for Natural Resources and Energy to prepare for a potential release. Japan holds one of the world’s largest emergency stockpiles: equivalent to 254 days of domestic consumption (government-owned ~146 days, private sector ~101 days, joint with producers ~7 days), totaling around 440 million barrels. This comes after Japanese oil refiners urged the government to tap reserves, as ~95% of Japan’s crude imports come from the Middle East (much via Hormuz), and disruptions risk shortages despite the buffer. Officials (including Chief Cabinet Secretary Minoru Kihara and Economy Minister Ryosei Akazawa) have emphasized no final decision or immediate release yet, monitoring continues, potentially unilaterally or coordinated with IEA partners. Their reserve release will go to their own refiners ... everybody else, out of luck SD
rogermunibond Posted March 9 Posted March 9 (edited) @SharperDingaan yes but right now Japanese refiners and importers are the strongest bid out there for oil. Edited March 9 by rogermunibond
Ulti Posted March 9 Posted March 9 https://inthecompanyofmavericks.com/episodes latest episode with doomberg on current energy events geopolitics etc… interesting take
Dalal.Holdings Posted March 9 Posted March 9 5 hours ago, Gamecock-YT said: Up $25 in 3 trading days after you posted this? Methinks you should stop prognosticating. Man, now below where it was 3 days ago. Did you trade those futures successfully ?
Cor Posted March 9 Posted March 9 To those holding any Canadian equities like OBE, PD, WCP, CVE… would you start selling now? It seems equity prices have not run up like crude has. All of them seem to have bottomed out around April 2025 and it’s been pretty much straight upward momentum ever since. The extra pop due to war seems like… it hasn’t happened yet if you’re looking at a 1 or 2 year chart? For someone who has been holding these a while, would now be a good time to lighten up (say 25%)? Or are we expecting these equities to continue going up regardless of what happens to price of crude over the next few weeks?
SharperDingaan Posted March 9 Posted March 9 (edited) 1 hour ago, Cor said: To those holding any Canadian equities like OBE, PD, WCP, CVE… would you start selling now? It seems equity prices have not run up like crude has. All of them seem to have bottomed out around April 2025 and it’s been pretty much straight upward momentum ever since. The extra pop due to war seems like… it hasn’t happened yet if you’re looking at a 1 or 2 year chart? For someone who has been holding these a while, would now be a good time to lighten up (say 25%)? Or are we expecting these equities to continue going up regardless of what happens to price of crude over the next few weeks? All good stocks, and little reason to sell; as they generally didn't run up with the rise in oil price, there is no reason to sell them off either. While there will be a few days benefit from higher prices, and maybe some short term hedging as well ... we will not know what happened until Q1 2025 numbers are released in May. Even if SOH transit resumed unmolested tomorrow, with all the shut-in's, it will take at least a month or two to restore the flow; in the meantime crude may not be USD 100/bbl, but it will very likely remain elevated ... to the benefit of these companies. SD Edited March 9 by SharperDingaan
Cor Posted March 9 Posted March 9 1 hour ago, SharperDingaan said: All good stocks, and little reason to sell; as they generally didn't run up with the rise in oil price, there is no reason to sell them off either. While there will be a few days benefit from higher prices, and maybe some short term hedging as well ... we will not know what happened until Q1 2025 numbers are released in May. Even if SOH transit resumed unmolested tomorrow, with all the shut-in's, it will take at least a month or two to restore the flow; in the meantime crude may not be USD 100/bbl, but it will very likely remain elevated ... to the benefit of these companies. SD Thank you SD. Always appreciate your input.
SharperDingaan Posted March 10 Posted March 10 (edited) Some idea as to the thinking around an emergency coordinated SPR release ... https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/why-emergency-oil-releases-won-090036135.html “If not for the SPR releases, we likely would have had gas above $5 a gallon for a number of weeks (in 2022) rather than just for a few days,” said Tom Kloza, an independent oil analyst and an advisor to Shell Oil. Canada's contribution would probably be maximisation of heavy oil flow to BC tidewater via existing pipe; good for heavy oil producers throughout the WCSB, and maintaining global refining at existing levels. Elevated, vs spiked prices, for weeks until the US/Iran reach some kind of deal around the SOH. $5 a gallon gas, and pending midterms, incentivising discussion. All those full tankers of sanctioned crude sitting off China's coast, are the floating storage, and market price is the clearing mechanism; not the G7 SPR. SD Edited March 10 by SharperDingaan
rogermunibond Posted March 10 Posted March 10 (edited) Saudi Aramco announced their East-West pipeline is near capacity of 7Mb/d and ready to start loading tankers on the Red Sea. Cuts down quite a bit on the SoH blockage. Edited March 10 by rogermunibond
SharperDingaan Posted March 10 Posted March 10 3 minutes ago, rogermunibond said: Saudi Aramco announced their East-West pipeline is near capacity of 7Mb/d and ready to start loading tankers on the Red Sea. Cuts down quite a bit on the SoH blockage. Depending on source, there is still approx 6.9Mb/d of shut in production, net of this. The US can threaten Kharg Island, Iran can threaten that pipeline ... a draw. Ballistic missiles are very good at stationary targets, and at the practical level .... pipelines are very difficult to continuously protect along their entire length. $5/gallon gasoline is probably going to be here for a while. SD
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