in what investable process are we still in the early innings

[Guest cherzeca]

I like to find "trends" that have emerged and are already profitable so you are not investing too early, but which appear to have a good bit of expansion runway left in them.  as an example, large financial/money center banks did well last year, and it was my bet at beginning of 2019 that they had become strong as a group ("trend" had emerged) but that they would continue to get stronger.  I was confident enough to play it with FAS, which did very well (and I am still holding much of it since I think there is runway left).

 

I am looking more for industry sectors than individual names, but feel free.  for example, much of tech seems either too early (for me, a lot of biotech) or not enough runway left (most enterprise software seems pretty priced out).  I am thinking about healthcare, but this is a big industry to grapple with.  TIA

[Guest cherzeca]

also looking at payments/fin tech.

 

y'all have no industries that you think are mature but still ripe for continued expansion? 

[gjangal]

I would say we are still growing  in all things digital

 

Digital advertising

Cyber security infrastructure

Online dating

Digital payments ( as you mentioned )

Personal care products in an instagram world

Content creation software

E-commerce

Software is eating the world ( Digitization of industry workflows) . I believe it’s still early days

Cloud computing / infrastructure

Travel and tourism/experiences is still growing

Trend towards urbanization

[Xaston]

Video games. 

 

Everyone under 20 plays video games all the time, boys and girls. 

[BG2008]

I would say we are still growing  in all things digital

 

Digital advertising

Cyber security infrastructure

Online dating

Digital payments ( as you mentioned )

Personal care products in an instagram world

Content creation software

E-commerce

Software is eating the world ( Digitization of industry workflows) . I believe it’s still early days

Cloud computing / infrastructure

Travel and tourism/experiences is still growing

Trend towards urbanization

 

This is a great list

[BG2008]

Baby boomers moving out of their palatial 3,000 to 4,000 sqft homes and electing to live in high end multi-family rentals or condos in city centers with lots of amenities

[BG2008]

Consolidation of the US college systems due to failures of smaller liberal arts college

Mental Health as an openly discussed topic even among highly successful individuals

Online learning especially for adults with some college credits (Aspen Group)

Aging in place due to improvement in technology rather than aging in a nursing home of some sort

[Gregmal]

IVF

[BG2008]

IVF

 

Yes!!!!  Was just talking about this with my cousin who is considering a career in finance.  I was telling it that it is almost taboo to talk about female fertility due to the PCness.  I told her that if you really want to pursue a career in finance as a woman, you kind of have to be aware of the un-talked about price as something like 70-80% of the female PE executives have children who are autistic.  I was not aware of this until a senior female PE executive told me this. 

[Spekulatius]

Tequila (CUERVO.MX)

Artificial body parts and organs

Space Technology

Housing in Texas

[alpha asset strategies]

IVF

 

Yes!!!!  Was just talking about this with my cousin who is considering a career in finance.  I was telling it that it is almost taboo to talk about female fertility due to the PCness.  I told her that if you really want to pursue a career in finance as a woman, you kind of have to be aware of the un-talked about price as something like 70-80% of the female PE executives have children who are autistic.  I was not aware of this until a senior female PE executive told me this.

 

@BG2008

 

"you kind of have to be aware of the un-talked about price as something like 70-80% of the female PE executives have children who are autistic."

 

This statistic is fascinating to me.  Do you have any sources and / or potential causes of this phenomenon?  Thanks!

[LC]

Old sperm (post 35), old eggs (post 30).

 

 

[Gregmal]

Yup, my brothers wife is in her late 20's at EY and its always thought but not loudly spoken how she either won't be able to have a healthy pregnancy or if she does, will have issues. 15 hour work days, eats very little, constant stress/anxiety/deadlines, always traveling... bad recipe.

 

Separately, IVF is one of the few areas that IMO are immune from the general "attack healthcare" agenda of politicians and insurance companies. Basically, poor people with fertility issues deserve to have babies to is my way to make money off socialism.

[Guest cherzeca]

mental health delivery (digital platforms) is not really investable yet to my knowledge except at the VC stage.  see eg Quartet Health https://www.quartethealth.com.

 

IVF?

[BG2008]

Yup, my brothers wife is in her late 20's at EY and its always thought but not loudly spoken how she either won't be able to have a healthy pregnancy or if she does, will have issues. 15 hour work days, eats very little, constant stress/anxiety/deadlines, always traveling... bad recipe.

 

Separately, IVF is one of the few areas that IMO are immune from the general "attack healthcare" agenda of politicians and insurance companies. Basically, poor people with fertility issues deserve to have babies to is my way to make money off socialism.

 

She probably works in consulting.  The auditing hours are not as bad unless its beginning of year.

[BG2008]

Tequila (CUERVO.MX)

Artificial body parts and organs

Space Technology

Housing in Texas

 

Yeah, I got lots of housing in Texas exposure

[BG2008]

Old sperm (post 35), old eggs (post 30).

 

LC, I believe you are referencing the cause of IVF.  I don't have any back up for that stat.  But it was something that an older successful female PE executive told me.  She has an autistic child and told me that. I have no reason to not believe her.  She mentioned that there is an active network of female PE executives who meet as a support group of a sort to talk about raising autistic children.    In my late 30s, my parents' nagging of me and my siblings to get married and have children early doesn't seem so unreasonable. 

[LC]

Old sperm (post 35), old eggs (post 30).

 

LC, I believe you are referencing the cause of IVF.  I don't have any back up for that stat.  But it was something that an older successful female PE executive told me.  She has an autistic child and told me that. I have no reason to not believe her.  She mentioned that there is an active network of female PE executives who meet as a support group of a sort to talk about raising autistic children.    In my late 30s, my parents' nagging of me and my siblings to get married and have children early doesn't seem so unreasonable.

 

These are the contributing factors of autism, as well as a host of other potential problems:

 

https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2019/05/190513081409.htm

 

The study found that men 45 and older can experience decreased fertility and put their partners at risk for increased pregnancy complications such as gestational diabetes, preeclampsia and preterm birth. Infants born to older fathers were found to be at higher risk of premature birth, late still birth, low Apgar scores, low birth weight, higher incidence of newborn seizures and birth defects such as congenital heart disease and cleft palate. As they matured, these children were found to have an increased likelihood of childhood cancers, psychiatric and cognitive disorders, and autism.

 

 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/national/health-science/the-link-between-autism-and-older-parents-is-clear-but-the-why-is-not/2017/12/15/dbe03284-dc62-11e7-b859-fb0995360725_story.html

 

Epidemiologists have gathered data on large numbers of families and calculated how often men of different ages have a child with autism. The first rigorous study of this type, published in 2006, drew on medical records of 132,000 Israeli adolescents. It showed that men in their 30s were 1.6 times as likely to have a child with autism as men younger than 30. Men in their 40s had a sixfold increase in risk.

 

Any women here will know the dangers of pregnancy as they age. I doubt there's an exact age despite my previous post but the point is the older the worse :(

[BG2008]

I can tell you with precision that as you cross over 32, it is starting to look like you may need help.  After 35, you definitely need help if you are not succeeding on your ow.  Over 40, you're almost shit out of luck unless you are a celebrity with access to best healthcare.  But I'll take my odds on 18 years old hormone charged teenager over 40 years platinum celebrity making $30mm a year. 

[LC]

That too.

 

Back to the topic: anti-aging :D

[BG2008]

Yes, Anti Aging will be a big trend

[Cigarbutt]

^I agree with IVF.

Interesting tidbit linking autism, IVF and parental age (for those interested).

Risk factors for autism remain largely ill-defined but parental age appears to be a significant factor as similar and significant findings have been replicated in multiple and very well designed studies. Take a look at the following cool 3-D graph coming from a recent study saying the same thing and possibly adding more color and relevant perspective.

https://www.nature.com/articles/mp201570/figures/3

RR is relative risk and is just a way to measure the strength of an association between an exposure (parental age) and an outcome (autism in children).

A proposed theory is that parents (both) would accumulate genetic mutations and then become at risk of transmitting 'deranged' genes. This would make sense for men who are described to produce newer batches of progressively lower sperm count and quality but women's eggs form (all of them) when lying in their mother's uterus and the eggs then simply wait to be called into play. Anyways, other factors may come into play (such as the socio-economic status) and, in a fascinating way, it is thought by many that the thought process should go the other way around and maybe parents holding a certain pool of genes may simply have traits (autistic type) not sufficient enough to reach a formal 'diagnosis' but this predisposition may explain why they may have difficulty matching or why somehow the decision to have babies is delayed, suggesting that the age may not be a causal factor in itself. This last theory is relevant for IVF as it has been reported by some (level of evidence fairly low) that IVF is associated with a higher incidence of autism and learning difficulties in IVF children (the CDC has some public info on this). However it may be that it's not the IVF procedure itself that would induce cognitive deficits but more that the parents seeking IVF treatments may already carry the genetic background leading them to use IVF and have children with cognitive deficits.

So, for IVF, we ain't seen nothing yet.

Disclosure: both my parents conceived me at an advanced age and I've never come across data or analysis that would explain or corroborate the high rate of autistic children (as mentioned above by BG2008) from parents working in finance, PE or similar jobs.

[no_free_lunch]

I think it was said earlier so let me just throw my vote behind commodity lite-AI. That stuff seems to really be gaining steam. It will get easier and easier to apply and the workforce with relevant skills will grow.  It has and will continue to have a wide variety of applications.

 

How to invest?  Who knows for sure but one thought is that it will drive down costs. Perhaps monopolies with high labor costs will benefit.  Rail companies come to mind as being possible ai winners, oddly enough.

 

 

[Castanza]

 

Any women here will know the dangers of pregnancy as they age. I doubt there's an exact age despite my previous post but the point is the older the worse :(

 

I hear this daily from my wife who’s specialized in Neonatal Intensive Care.  :o

[Gregmal]

With regard to genetic deficiencies in the IVF process, I have been told that more recently, given the advances in accessibility, couples are being sold the option to perform genetic testing on embryos prior to selection. While it is old news that one can choose the gender of their child, now having the ability to select the healthiest of the harvest further makes this something that potentially appeals to a wider audience.

 

The mainstream acceptability is also still incredibly low. No one ever wonders why so many celebrities have twins at what seems like a significantly greater rate than normal folks? Or how wealthier folks tend to conceive later on? IVF...so as this starts becoming more acceptable to talk about, and accessible from the healthcare standpoint(Starbucks for instance covers this for part time workers now!) I think it is an inevitable growth arena. From there, it will merely become a decision, rather than an embarassing subject and a financial hardship, and when people are given the choice between "trying" blindfolded and leaving the health of their baby to chance, VS, having the entire process planned; no different than a vacation and the health more or less assured- I think I can see where it leads.