Fairfax stock positions

[villainx]

Prem lurking on the LULU and CROX bets, and want to play same rebound but with something else?

 

 

Edited January 6 by villainx

[SafetyinNumbers]

2 hours ago, Txvestor said:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-01-05/under-armour-surges-after-fairfax-financial-discloses-22-stake
 

So we are at 22% now? I'm not clear on the rationale here. It has a horrible chart, and seems more like dumpster diving than quality. What turns it around? 

Other than maybe trying to combine with Sporting life/Golf town, I don't see any synergies here either. 

Maybe take private with the CEO and BDT or just has confidence in the turn. It’s cheap if margins can go up. 

[Viking]

3 hours ago, Txvestor said:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-01-05/under-armour-surges-after-fairfax-financial-discloses-22-stake
 

So we are at 22% now? I'm not clear on the rationale here. It has a horrible chart, and seems more like dumpster diving than quality. What turns it around? 

Other than maybe trying to combine with Sporting life/Golf town, I don't see any synergies here either. 

My math says UA is less than a $200 million position. Fairfax’s investment portfolio is about $75 billion, with equities about $26 billion. $200 million is a tiny position - not even a 1% position (or big enough to crack the top 25 largest equity holdings). 
 

For context, Fairfax was paid $200 million in dividends by Eurobank in 2025. 

Edited January 6 by Viking

[Berk]

12 hours ago, Txvestor said:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-01-05/under-armour-surges-after-fairfax-financial-discloses-22-stake
 

So we are at 22% now? I'm not clear on the rationale here. It has a horrible chart, and seems more like dumpster diving than quality. What turns it around? 

Other than maybe trying to combine with Sporting life/Golf town, I don't see any synergies here either. 

Losing Steph Curry definitely doesn't turn it around. 

[Berk]

On 12/31/2025 at 4:24 PM, dartmonkey said:

I think it's a very good question, and I was thinking the same thing myself. Buffett suggests a 'five groves' technique for Berkshire and the same sort of thinking could be applied to Fairfax.

 

Many people follow price book (around 1.6), given the facts that earnings can be quite variable, as the company's stock holdings fluctuate and underwriting is pretty variable from year to year. But I think earnings is really the crucial metric, ideally separating out the stock and bond investments (and valuing them at market value), and of course removing dividends from those stock and bond holdings, and taking some sort of average combined ratio (say 96%, although recent results have been better), and assigning some sort of conservative multiple (say 15) to the pre-tax operating earnings of the non-insurance businesses. I haven't seen such an estimate on these boards, but perhaps I am forgetting. Perhaps others would like to chime in on how this should best be done and then when we have settled on the best way of doing it we could divvy up the work.

 

So as a first draft, my approach would be:

 

1. Calculate the value of the stock and bond portfolios, these will be valued at market value

2. Find the income from all of the above, so that it can be subtracted from pre-tax earnings

3. Calculate the value of associates (companies with 20-50% ownership)

4. Find the average combined ratio of the past 10 years; I'm guessing it's about 96%, so 4% underwriting earnings, but whatever it is, apply it to current net premiums written (NPW)

5. Calculate the earnings from all the consolidated businesses (positions with >50% ownership), and subtract minority owners' shares.

6. Calculate the ratio of earnings from 3,4 and 5, minus minority stakes, minus income from stocks and bonds marked to market.

7. Calculate the current market value of FFH, minus the stock and bond portfolios in #1.

8. Calculate what the P/E ratio of operating businesses is, i.e. #7/#6

 

This will not count the value that Fairfax occasionally creates by opportunistically selling holdings acquired at lower prices, but I think it would be a good metric to follow.

@dartmonkey Have you seen Alexander Steinberg's SOTP model? (I pasted a snapshot from his substack below) Do you have any thoughts? I am a bit confused on the below:

1) I can't wrap my head around what his payout ratio is and how he is still valuing the mark to market common stocks while also including the interest and dividends in the insurance company value. 

2) The share of profits of associates included in the insurance value isn't comprehensive of all of the share of profits of associates (for CY2024 he has 745 while the total share of profits of associates in 2024 was 956 on the income statement) and I think it is missing the portion that the holding company own and maybe life insurance? 

Would appreciate any thoughts on this? I am not saying his approach is flawed/incorrect, I am just bringing these up from my own ignorance. 

(link: https://alexandersteinberg.substack.com/p/buying-fairfax-now-smart-move-or)

[Viking]

Estimate of Change in Market Value of Fairfax’s Equity Portfolio – Q4-2025

 

A necessary warning

 

When looking at Fairfax’s equity holdings, what ultimately matters to investors is the underlying business performance of those holdings over time – not the quarter-to- quarter change in market value. 

 

Short term (quarterly) changes in market value are inherently volatile and should therefore be viewed with an appropriate degree of skepticism.

 

So why track quarterly changes at all?

 

Because they are interesting and because they can provide early insight into one of Fairfax’s largest income streams—investment gains (and losses)—ahead of reported earnings.

 

Importantly, over time (like a couple of years), the change in the market value of Fairfax’s equity holdings should roughly match the change in their intrinsic business value.

---

 

Q4-2025 summary

 

In Q4-2025, Fairfax’s equity portfolio increased in market value by approximately $744 million (pre-tax), or 2.9%.

 

At December 31, 2025, Fairfax’s total equity portfolio was valued at approximately $26.7 billion.

 

Fairfax’s equity portfolio has performed exceptionally well in 2025.

 

 

Key assumptions and limitations

• Estimates incorporate information from interim earnings releases and 13F filings.
• The FFH-TRS investment is included in the mark-to-market bucket at its notional value.
• Convertible bonds, warrants, and debentures are included in the mark-to-market category.
• The tracker does not include Digit, Fairfax’s publicly traded insurance company in India. A portion of Fairfax’s ownership in Digit is mark-to-market; the shares were flat in Q4.
• Currency: U.S. dollar weakness was a tailwind for Fairfax in 2025. Where this benefit appears in reported results (net income vs. OCI, net of hedging) is complex.

 The “tracker portfolio” is not an exact replica of Fairfax’s actual holdings. It is intended solely as a tool to estimate the direction and magnitude of changes in value—not precision.

---

 

Portfolio composition by accounting treatment

 

Approximately 50% of Fairfax’s equity holdings are mark-to-market and therefore fluctuate each quarter with equity markets. The remaining 50% consist of associate and consolidated holdings.

 

---

 

Q4-2025 gains by accounting treatment

• Total estimated increase:
  • $744 million, or $32 per diluted share (pre-tax)
• Mark-to-market component:
  • $593 million, or $26 per diluted share (pre-tax)

---

 

Major movers in Q4-2025

 

Several holdings continued their strong performance throughout 2025:

• FFH-TRS, Orla, and Eurobank again delivered exceptional results.
• Additional strong contributors in Q4 included Foran Mining (copper start-up) and Dexterra (facilities management).
• The largest laggard was Metlen, which gave back a portion of its substantial Q3 gain.

---

 

Excess of fair value over carrying value (FV – CV)

 

The excess of fair value over carrying value for non-insurance associate and consolidated holdings is now estimated at approximately:

• $2.8 billion, or $120 per diluted share (pre-tax)

For context, this figure was approximately $1.5 billion at December 31, 2024.

 

FV – CV has increased materially in recent years. It represents economic value created by Fairfax that is not captured in reported earnings or book value—one clear illustration of how traditional accounting metrics understate Fairfax’s true economic performance.

 

Note: The carrying values used for associate and consolidated holdings are as of September 30, 2025 and December 31, 2024, which likely causes this excess to be slightly overstated.

 

Breakdown of FV – CV

• Associate holdings:
  • $2.0 billion = $86 per share
• Consolidated holdings:
  • $0.8 billion = $34 per share

 

---

 

 

[Viking]

Here are the summary pages of Fairfax's equity holdings at Dec 31, 2025. I was not able to load them on the summary above.  My Excel workbook is attached below. 

 

 

 

Fairfax Dec 2025.xlsx

[dartmonkey]

2 hours ago, Berk said:

@dartmonkey Have you seen Alexander Steinberg's SOTP model? (I pasted a snapshot from his substack below) Do you have any thoughts? I am a bit confused on the below:

1) I can't wrap my head around what his payout ratio is and how he is still valuing the mark to market common stocks while also including the interest and dividends in the insurance company value. 

2) The share of profits of associates included in the insurance value isn't comprehensive of all of the share of profits of associates (for CY2024 he has 745 while the total share of profits of associates in 2024 was 956 on the income statement) and I think it is missing the portion that the holding company own and maybe life insurance? 

Would appreciate any thoughts on this? I am not saying his approach is flawed/incorrect, I am just bringing these up from my own ignorance. 

(link: https://alexandersteinberg.substack.com/p/buying-fairfax-now-smart-move-or)

 

I like this a lot, but I don't completely understand it. Where is he getting, for instance, the two estimates of Non-insurance Value? Is it based on the low and high estimates of Stocks payout ratio? Is he eliminating some of the double counting this way, as non-insurance companies have already contributed to value via their earnings in the second line (Investment Income)?

[anshulp]

59 minutes ago, dartmonkey said:

 

I like this a lot, but I don't completely understand it. Where is he getting, for instance, the two estimates of Non-insurance Value? Is it based on the low and high estimates of Stocks payout ratio? Is he eliminating some of the double counting this way, as non-insurance companies have already contributed to value via their earnings in the second line (Investment Income)?

Here is the post. 

Buying Fairfax Now_ Smart Move or Late to the Party_.pdf

[dartmonkey]

52 minutes ago, anshulp said:

Here is the post. 

Buying Fairfax Now_ Smart Move or Late to the Party_.pdf 2.18 MB · 18 downloads

My longer post got eaten up again (why does this keep happening?) but thanks, I like that approach. 

 

My only quibble is that I think the optimistic estimates (tax rate of 20%, 15x multiple of operating earnings, 0% payout ratio of equity investments) is a lot closer to being fair than the pessimistic ones (tax rate of 25%, 10x multiple of operating earnings, 50% payout ratio.), and so his high end value:price of 1.4 is probably closer than the low end (0.9). Also, it is from Q2, and there is a fair bit of good news since then,but the share price is only up 1%. 

 

The other factor missing is any accounting for growth, unless you consider that a 10x or 15x multiple already incorporates any projected growth. The company has a few good prospects from growth, most notably repurchasing Odyssey and Alliance, but also repurchasing their own shares at <10x earnings, reduced interest costs from ratings upgrades, and just the fact that they seem to be pretty good at selling things at higher prices (Resolute, Stelco) and buying other things cheap that work out well more often than not (Under Armour??), or even the odd macro call (mortgage credit default swaps, anyone?)

[djokovic1]

4 hours ago, Viking said:

Estimate of Change in Market Value of Fairfax’s Equity Portfolio – Q4-2025

Thanks for the analysis @Viking Super valuable and extremely detailed as usual! 

[Txvestor]

5 hours ago, djokovic1 said:

Thanks for the analysis @Viking Super valuable and extremely detailed as usual! 

Shaping up like it might be a $70-80 EPS Q coming up. I saw an analyst estimate at ~ $47. 

[djokovic1]

4 hours ago, Txvestor said:

Shaping up like it might be a $70-80 EPS Q coming up. I saw an analyst estimate at ~ $47. 

I would expect $60-$65. I see consensus at $43.

[Hoodlum]

1 hour ago, djokovic1 said:

I would expect $60-$65. I see consensus at $43.

I am thinking $80 before taxes, based on ~$20 for reserve releases.  ~$65 after taxes.  The size of the reserve release will dictate how large the earnings will be. 
 

Edited January 8 by Hoodlum

[SafetyinNumbers]

1 hour ago, Hoodlum said:

I am thinking $80 before taxes, based on ~$20 for reserve releases.  ~$65 after taxes.  The size of the reserve release will dictate how large the earnings will be. 
 

A lot of reserves were released in Q1 for wildfires. I’m not sure if we get as much as you think. 

[Hoodlum]

1 hour ago, SafetyinNumbers said:

A lot of reserves were released in Q1 for wildfires. I’m not sure if we get as much as you think. 

I am thinking more about the claims that get released after a few years.  This is usually what gets released during Q4 and has been increasing over the past 2 years due to the hard market that started in 2019.  There is certainly no guarantee of what it would be for 2025, but I believe we are seeing a trend due to the 5 years hard market that we experienced. 

[SafetyinNumbers]

39 minutes ago, Hoodlum said:

I am thinking more about the claims that get released after a few years.  This is usually what gets released during Q4 and has been increasing over the past 2 years due to the hard market that started in 2019.  There is certainly no guarantee of what it would be for 2025, but I believe we are seeing a trend due to the 5 years hard market that we experienced. 

I think so too but I also think Fairfax does whatever they can to defer reserve releases. 

[Viking]

7 hours ago, djokovic1 said:

I would expect $60-$65. I see consensus at $43.

@djokovic1, my guess is about $60, similar to you. That would be about $215 for the year. Add another $40 for hidden value  (one year change in excess of FV over CV) and economic EPS = $255 (conservatively calculated). Who had that as their estimate a year ago? No one (I certainly didn’t).
 

Outstanding performance. (Yes, it is being driven by investment gains… which will be lumpy.)
 

What is the learning? We all continue to underestimate Fairfax and its earnings power. That, IMHO, continues to be the biggest risk for investors. 
 

It’s like we don’t really understand its business model. Continue to underestimate management. Don’t get reinvestment. Or how compounding works. 
 

The emerging story is all the hidden value that is building. As it gets realized in the coming years it will be a tailwind to reported (accounting) earnings (boosting ROE). This tailwind is not built into analysts estimates. Or the multiple of the stock. Investors today get it for free.

————-

Fairfax has been delivering record results in a very low volatility environment. Guess what happens when volatility spikes? That is opportunity for Fairfax. And should boost future returns. 

 

Edited January 8 by Viking

[Txvestor]

1 hour ago, Viking said:

@djokovic1, my guess is about $60, similar to you. That would be about $215 for the year. Add another $40 for hidden value  (one year change in excess of FV over CV) and economic EPS = $255 (conservatively calculated). Who had that as their estimate a year ago? No one (I certainly didn’t).
 

Outstanding performance. (Yes, it is being driven by investment gains… which will be lumpy.)
 

What is the learning? We all continue to underestimate Fairfax and its earnings power. That, IMHO, continues to be the biggest risk for investors. 
 

It’s like we don’t really understand its business model. Continue to underestimate management. Don’t get reinvestment. Or how compounding works. 
 

The emerging story is all the hidden value that is building. As it gets realized in the coming years it will be a tailwind to reported (accounting) earnings (boosting ROE). This tailwind is not built into analysts estimates. Or the multiple of the stock. Investors today get it for free.

————-

Fairfax has been delivering record results in a very low volatility environment. Guess what happens when volatility spikes? That is opportunity for Fairfax. And should boost future returns. 

 

True, but if volatility spikes their unrealized gains could also evaporate. Gains can only be booked if and when realized.
The more reliable things in a volatile environment are the cash flows at stable businesses. 

To be fair they have been fairly good at monetizing businesses when they get to fair valuations over the last few years with the C&F Pet insurance division, Stelco, RFP, and even Orla an Eurolife more recently. 
 

Speaking of which, has anyone heard anything about what came of the $200M they put into the JAB investment fund in 2022 at the time of the pet insurance transaction? 

[dartmonkey]

1 hour ago, Txvestor said:

True, but if volatility spikes their unrealized gains could also evaporate. Gains can only be booked if and when realized.
The more reliable things in a volatile environment are the cash flows at stable businesses. 

To be fair they have been fairly good at monetizing businesses when they get to fair valuations over the last few years with the C&F Pet insurance division, Stelco, RFP, and even Orla an Eurolife more recently. 
 

Speaking of which, has anyone heard anything about what came of the $200M they put into the JAB investment fund in 2022 at the time of the pet insurance transaction? 

No wonder FFH shares are up, their investments are on fire. Eurolife just jumped another 5% and the market cap is now over US$16b, so presuming we still own 1/3 of it, we are now up to a value of over $5.3b, plus whatever cash we have been getting from trimming shares to keep from going over 1/3. ORLA is also up another C$1 a share since the beginning of the year, after more than doubling last year. Stelco and RFP were also homeruns, especially the sale of RFP which was looking like a dog for a long time. Even Under Armour looks like it's up over their acquisition price, since it was consistently between $4 and $5 all Q4 when they bought 36m shares, in addition to the 6m they already had, and the price is now about $5.70.

As for JAB, FFH sold the pet insurance business to them in June 2022, and invested $200m in their JCP Fund V, focused on the pet insurance business, along with a $250m 6% note.  I haven't seen any results in FFH's 2023 or 2024 reports, which is a bit odd, it seems like a big enough investment to warrant a line.

[Hoodlum]

Eurobank (EUROB.AT) is already up 8.3% this qtr, including +5% today.  Close to $20 unrealized gains for this qtr already. 

[gfp]

8 minutes ago, dartmonkey said:

As for JAB, FFH sold the pet insurance business to them in June 2022, and invested $200m in their JCP Fund V, focused on the pet insurance business, along with a $250m 6% note.  I haven't seen any results in FFH's 2023 or 2024 reports, which is a bit odd, it seems like a big enough investment to warrant a line.

 

 

I asked Gemini for an update on JCP Fund V 

----------

JAB Consumer Partners (JCP) Fund V (often referred to as JCP V) is a $5 billion buyout fund that closed in 2022. It represents a significant shift in JAB’s strategy, moving from a primary focus on coffee and fast-casual restaurants toward a massive expansion into Pet Insurance and Insurance/Financial Services.

Because JCP V co-invests alongside JAB Holding Company, its specific portfolio is integrated into JAB's broader "platforms."¹ Here are the key investments made or held by Fund V:

 

1. The Pet Insurance "Powerhouse"

JCP V was the primary vehicle used to build JAB’s Independence Pet Group (IPG) and Pinnacle Pet Group.² This is currently the fund's most active investment area.

 

• Fairfax Financial Assets (2022): A cornerstone deal for Fund V was the $1.4 billion acquisition of Fairfax Financial’s pet insurance interests, including Crum & Forster Pet Insurance Group and Pethealth Inc.³(which includes the 24Petwatch registry). As part of this deal, Fairfax itself became a limited partner in JCP V.⁴

  +1

   

• Embrace Pet Insurance (2023): JCP V acquired a majority stake in Embrace, a leading provider in the US.

• Pumpkin & Spot Pet Insurance (2023/2024): Acquisitions of these high-growth, tech-forward pet insurance brands were folded into the Independence Pet Holdings platform.⁵

   

• Pets Best (2024): Acquired from Synchrony Financial, further consolidating JAB's position as a top-three player in the global pet insurance market.

• European Expansion (Pinnacle Pet Group): Fund V capital was used for the acquisition of Agila(Germany), Veterfina, and AssurO’Poil (France) to build a dominant European pet insurance presence.

2. Insurance and Financial Services (JAB 3.0)

In 2024 and 2025, Fund V began moving JAB into broader insurance sectors beyond pets, a phase JAB calls "JAB 3.0."

• Prosperity Life Group (2025): JAB (via JCP V) announced the acquisition of Prosperity Life, marking a major entry into the life insurance and individual annuity markets.

• Columbian Mutual Life (Late 2025): Most recently, JAB announced an agreement to acquire Columbian Mutual as a centerpiece for a new insurance rehabilitation and growth plan.⁶

   

3. Core Consumer Holdings

While JCP V is heavily weighted toward insurance, it also holds co-investment stakes in JAB’s traditional "staple" companies, which are currently being prepared for liquidity events:

• Petcare (NVA): JCP V holds a significant interest in National Veterinary Associates (NVA) and Ethos. JAB has announced plans to IPO the specialty and emergency portions of NVA in 2026.

• Panera Brands: This includes Panera Bread, Caribou Coffee, and Einstein Bros. Bagels. Like NVA, Panera Brands is being prepared for a public listing (expected 2025/2026).

• JDE Peet’s: In late 2024, JAB significantly increased its stake in JDE Peet’s by acquiring Mondelez’s remaining shares, some of which are managed through JCP vehicles to increase the "free float" of the stock.⁷

   

Summary Table of JCP Fund V Assets

Sector	Key Portfolio Companies	Recent Notable Action
Pet Insurance	Independence Pet, Pinnacle, Pets Best, Figo, Pumpkin	Aggressive "roll-up" of the US and EU markets.
Life Insurance	Prosperity Life Group, Columbian Mutual	Newest platform; diversifying away from retail.
Pet Health	NVA, Ethos, Sage, Pet Labs Platform	Expected IPO of specialty division in 2026.
Indulgence	Krispy Kreme, Insomnia Cookies	Sold majority of Insomnia Cookies in 2024.

---

Would you like more details on the specific terms of the Prosperity Life acquisition or the upcoming IPO timelines for NVA and Panera?

[UK]

3 hours ago, Viking said:

Add another $40 for hidden value  (one year change in excess of FV over CV) and economic EPS = $255 (conservatively calculated). Who had that as their estimate a year ago? No one (I certainly didn’t).

 

Maybe it is time for FFH to start reporting some kind of adjusted BVPS:)

[Viking]

3 hours ago, Txvestor said:

True, but if volatility spikes their unrealized gains could also evaporate. Gains can only be booked if and when realized.
The more reliable things in a volatile environment are the cash flows at stable businesses. 

To be fair they have been fairly good at monetizing businesses when they get to fair valuations over the last few years with the C&F Pet insurance division, Stelco, RFP, and even Orla an Eurolife more recently. 
 

Speaking of which, has anyone heard anything about what came of the $200M they put into the JAB investment fund in 2022 at the time of the pet insurance transaction? 

I think you are conflating price and value. Volatility is the short term change in price. Buffett teaches us this is an investors friend. This certainly has been Fairfax’s great friend over the past 5 years. Volatility allowed them to make many of their great investments. 
 

Eurobank, as an example, is going up so much because the fundamentals have improved greatly, Greece has emerged from a depression, and a pro-business government is in power. Fairfax is carrying Eurobank on their books at an egregiously low carrying value. Eurobank is not an expensive stock today. Yes, the stock will fluctuate. As long as the company continues to execute well (and they have been putting on a clinic the past 5 years), the intrinsic value of Eurobank should continue to increase. That (not short term price volatility) is what matters. 
 

It sounds like you are saying a 10% rate of return with low volatility is better than a 15% rate of return with modest volatility. 

Edited January 8 by Viking

[Viking]

52 minutes ago, UK said:

 

Maybe it is time for FFH to start reporting some kind of adjusted BVPS:)

Fairfax is doing their part. They already report excess of FV over CV for non-insurance associate and consolidated holdings. We know BIAL is materially undervalued. Analysts and investors (mostly) chose to ignore it. They justify ignoring it by saying they are simply being conservative. Which is completely non-sensical. It is not rational.  
 

It’s like when a kid covers their eyes and then thinks they are invisible. Does doing that really make them invisible. Or are they really just fooling themselves?

Edited January 8 by Viking