Fairfax stock positions

[KFS]

1 hour ago, StubbleJumper said:

Above $15?  I'd be deliriously happy if they were able to unload the equity position for US$12/sh, even if they elect to continue to hold the debentures.  Cripes, I wouldn't even be upset if they realized an average of US$10/sh.

Prem provided a valid excuse for not divesting that position during February, but it will be interesting to see what happens if the BB share price continues to rise as we work our way through the month of June.  Will he act, or will it just be more excuses?

 

SJ

When Prem said, "If we checked once, we checked 10 times," or something like that on the last call, I interpreted that to mean he very much wanted to sell, but just couldn't.  I could be wrong, but that was the way I took it.  If that's the case, and he should no longer have any restrictions, it seems very likely he should be selling on this week's mania.  

[petec]

10 minutes ago, KFS said:

When Prem said, "If we checked once, we checked 10 times," or something like that on the last call, I interpreted that to mean he very much wanted to sell, but just couldn't.  I could be wrong, but that was the way I took it.  If that's the case, and he should no longer have any restrictions, it seems very likely he should be selling on this week's mania.  

Oh come on. The prices are totally different. You can’t infer anything from that comment about how he feels at these levels. 

[KFS]

28 minutes ago, petec said:

Oh come on. The prices are totally different. You can’t infer anything from that comment about how he feels at these levels. 

Yeah, fair enough, it's pure speculation.  The prices were totally different for only a few days; the bulk of that period was closer to $12, so who knows.  Time will tell.  It could be wishful thinking on my part.  

Edited May 28, 2021 by KFS

[petec]

38 minutes ago, KFS said:

Yeah, fair enough, it's pure speculation.  The prices were totally different for only a few days; the bulk of that period was closer to $12, so who knows.  Time will tell.  It could be wishful thinking on my part.  

Mine too! I’m just saying, he could be desperate at $20 and not at $11 so let’s not get our hopes up!

[FairFacts]

Well that was some day!. Up 20% on big volumes this morning BB finished up 1% for the day on +115mil shares (normally about 12 mil per day).

My guess the reddit crowd were pushing the shorts out then some big sellers showed up (hopefully PW & co).

[Dazel]

Fairfax did not sell at these levels  March 1 when their restrictions came off. The checking 10x certainly was to find out what their options were pardon the pun! They would have hedged their position for sure if they could have...we know how much they utilize swaps even with their own stock. If we do head back to $20 that’s is what they will do...

I am going to post on the Blackberry forum but my thesis is it is time right now for Fairfax-Blackberry to take advantage of this market. Split Blackberry up now...while the market is looking at them. It will create several possible scenarios into a market that WANTS to like Blackberry.

[FairFacts]

I sincerely hope that they have started to lighten their position at these levels (above $10). Even if they sold 10-20% at these levels it would be a start.

If they are really true to buying back their own stock, this is a real opportunity. Each 1% of outstanding shares (of FRFHF) will cost them about $122mil at current prices. 

If they were to sell 25% of their current BB shares they could raise this ($122mil) and reduce their shares outstanding by 1% while still holding the remaining 75% of BB shares PLUS the convertible debt.

Its a no brainer to me!

 

[matthew2129]

BB up another 14% in after hours after being up 15% today. I hope at the very least FFH starts selling boatloads of covered calls tomorrow while the volumes pumping 

[Dazel]

 

BB up 20% Premarket...in my opinion if this heads towards where the others have AMC and GME...you will see FFH synthetically hedge their position they are too smart to kill the rally and hurt their positions value. Remember a large part of their position is convertibles. 
 

Fairfax and Blackberry should come forward with any discussions of reorganization-split up or sale discussions of the patent-royalty portfolio so there is nothing that can hold them back with regards to material information. Allowing all involved to be able to hedge or sell into a parabolic move.

 

[Xerxes]

I get a feeling that come August, during the Q2 conference call, Prem still hasn't done anything on Resolute and Blackberry. And then few quarters later, he sell both at the loss, which he couldn't do before because [insert list of reasons]

Maybe i am just a pessimist when it comes to FFH ability to at least partially monetize at the right time. 

Don't expect miracles here.

[matthew2129]

Praise be the investment Gods they have not forsaken us

[Viking]

Prem was pretty clear that they tried to find a way to monetize their BB position in Q1 but were blocked due to SEC rules tied to debenture reset. And that restriction was no longer in place.

If Blackberry continies to move higher (over US $15) - and remains there for any length of time - i will be very surprised if Fairfax does not find a way to monetize at least part of their position. They can use the $. 

PS: does anyone remeber the price that the Fairfax insider sold BB shares at in Q1? My guess is that price might be informative. 

Edited June 2, 2021 by Viking

[bluedevil]

Lightning strikes twice!

It particularly makes sense because they hold the debenture.  They can still keep big upside exposure if BB is acquired, but have no real risk of losing money.  I think that has been the plan since the original debenture was put in place but prices never got high enough to sell off the common equity position. 

Edited June 2, 2021 by bluedevil

[A_Hamilton]

1 hour ago, Viking said:

Prem was pretty clear that they tried to find a way to monetize their BB position in Q1 but were blocked due to SEC rules tied to debenture reset. And that restriction was no longer in place.

If Blackberry continies to move higher (over US $15) - and remains there for any length of time - i will be very surprised if Fairfax does not find a way to monetize at least part of their position. They can use the $. 

PS: does anyone remeber the price that the Fairfax insider sold BB shares at in Q1? My guess is that price might be informative. 

Roger Lace was like $13 Canadian, Wade Burton waited a bit longer and got $24 canadian. So can drive a truck through the difference in price. Regardless seems likely some monetization to take place here / may have already this morning.

[KFS]

BB just rocketed up again - now up 40% on the day to $16. 

Ok, Prem, let's see those paper hands.  

 

[A_Hamilton]

5 minutes ago, KFS said:

BB just rocketed up again - now up 40% on the day to $16. 

Ok, Prem, let's see those paper hands.  

 

Quarter just ended for BB so they could be blacked out from trading.

[matthew2129]

Wow 300M shares of volume if Prem doesn't capitalize on this I'll never forgive him

[A_Hamilton]

28 minutes ago, matthew2129 said:

Wow 300M shares of volume if Prem doesn't capitalize on this I'll never forgive him

 

28 minutes ago, matthew2129 said:

Wow 300M shares of volume if Prem doesn't capitalize on this I'll never forgive him

More I think about this FFH is definitely blacked out. Going to need an earnings pre-release and wait for two days of trading to take advantage.

[Crip1]

The common thought is that the speculators running up the price for BB are unsophisticated and naive. But think about it, if one does want to run up the price, it does make sense to do so when the largest shareholder can't sell.

 

-Crip 

[petec]

1 hour ago, A_Hamilton said:

 

More I think about this FFH is definitely blacked out. Going to need an earnings pre-release and wait for two days of trading to take advantage.

You couldn’t make this up

[matthew2129]

5 hours ago, A_Hamilton said:

 

More I think about this FFH is definitely blacked out. Going to need an earnings pre-release and wait for two days of trading to take advantage.

Are you sure FFH is subject to BB's blackout period? I thought blackout periods were just voluntarily imposed by a company on its directors and employees to avoid insider trading violations (as opposed to being imposed by security law)? If FFH had MNPI they would obviously need to cleanse themselves before trading but I'm not sure that FFH is technically subject to BB's blanket blackout period otherwise. 

[gfp]

I think Prem would say the issue is that he is personally on the board of directors of BB.  Which probably wasn't a great idea considering he would have been consulted on major decisions without being on the board as a very important investor.

[petec]

It might be time for me to concede defeat in my long-running debate with SJ about whether Prem being a director would be an issue in offloading Fairfax’s shares. I always assumed the company would be sold or that the share price would be moderately stable at around the exit price!

[nwoodman]

Some very sensible observations regarding a lock in but I do hope you are wrong. Jump Prem!.   Arch, 1 thousand, 2 thousand, 3 thousand……
 

[StubbleJumper]

5 hours ago, petec said:

It might be time for me to concede defeat in my long-running debate with SJ about whether Prem being a director would be an issue in offloading Fairfax’s shares. I always assumed the company would be sold or that the share price would be moderately stable at around the exit price!

 

To be fair, I had never in my wildest dreams anticipated that the quiet period would be a problem for FFH to exit its BB position.  I had not seriously contemplated the possibility that there would be a (possibly) transitory spike in BB's share price and that FFH would be prohibited from selling during that short period that gold falls from the sky. 

My concern was that the price could slowly rise to an acceptable level or that FFH would eventually capitulate and dump the shares for whatever they could get.  In that type of scenario traditional volumes are a problem as it could take several days for FFH to move their 47m shares and the early-warning disclosure requirement for directors could signal the market to bid the stock price lower before the entire position could be liquidated (ie, the market usually doesn't like it when insiders liquidate a long-held position because we assume that there is some level of asymmetric information).

Anyway, let's just hope that the price spike lasts for a full month this time and that FFH takes the opportunity to at least dump its position in the common shares.  I don't expect the debs to be converted and sold, but I certainly wouldn't shed any tears if FFH completely washes its hands of BB by exercising the conversion and dumping the whole lot.

It is possible that 2021 could provide the opportunity to dump both BB and Resolute.  Keep your fingers crossed.

 

SJ