Your 2017 Best Ideas

[wachtwoord]

Classic.

 

"After a Few Harsh Statements from Executive Jamie Dimon, JP Morgan Ltd., and Morgan Stanley Purchase Bitcoin ETNs"

 

https://news.bitcoin.com/after-the-boss-calls-bitcoin-a-fraud-jp-morgan-buys-the-dip/

 

?  is this not simply trading in a broker/dealer capacity?

 

It likely is. But can they buy things for their customers what they consider a fraud?

[rkbabang]

Classic.

 

"After a Few Harsh Statements from Executive Jamie Dimon, JP Morgan Ltd., and Morgan Stanley Purchase Bitcoin ETNs"

 

https://news.bitcoin.com/after-the-boss-calls-bitcoin-a-fraud-jp-morgan-buys-the-dip/

 

?  is this not simply trading in a broker/dealer capacity?

 

It likely is. But can they buy things for their customers what they consider a fraud?

 

Exactly.  It's a fraud and a scam and I'll fire anyone who buys it because they are stupid, but if you're our customer and you want some we'll be happy to facilitate the trade.

[SnarkyPuppy]

Classic.

 

"After a Few Harsh Statements from Executive Jamie Dimon, JP Morgan Ltd., and Morgan Stanley Purchase Bitcoin ETNs"

 

https://news.bitcoin.com/after-the-boss-calls-bitcoin-a-fraud-jp-morgan-buys-the-dip/

 

?  is this not simply trading in a broker/dealer capacity?

 

It likely is. But can they buy things for their customers what they consider a fraud?

 

Exactly.  It's a fraud and a scam and I'll fire anyone who buys it because they are stupid, but if you're our customer and you want some we'll be happy to facilitate the trade.

 

So Jamie Dimon personally has to agree with the investment merits of every trade his clients want to make?  I think this whole JPM/bitcoin thing is ridiculous

 

[rkbabang]

Classic.

 

"After a Few Harsh Statements from Executive Jamie Dimon, JP Morgan Ltd., and Morgan Stanley Purchase Bitcoin ETNs"

 

https://news.bitcoin.com/after-the-boss-calls-bitcoin-a-fraud-jp-morgan-buys-the-dip/

 

?  is this not simply trading in a broker/dealer capacity?

 

It likely is. But can they buy things for their customers what they consider a fraud?

 

Exactly.  It's a fraud and a scam and I'll fire anyone who buys it because they are stupid, but if you're our customer and you want some we'll be happy to facilitate the trade.

 

So Jamie Dimon personally has to agree with the investment merits of every trade his clients want to make?  I think this whole JPM/bitcoin thing is ridiculous

 

 

No but his company shouldn't be providing know fraudulent investments to its clients.  That's like knowing in advance that Bernie Madoff is running a Ponzi scheme yet helping people invest with him.  If he truly believes that it is a fraud as he states, then there is no way his company should be dealing with it in any way.  A brokerage or investment advisor should only offer legitimate investment options for its clients.  It seems unethical to me to do otherwise.

 

 

[SharperDingaan]

Classic.

 

"After a Few Harsh Statements from Executive Jamie Dimon, JP Morgan Ltd., and Morgan Stanley Purchase Bitcoin ETNs"

 

https://news.bitcoin.com/after-the-boss-calls-bitcoin-a-fraud-jp-morgan-buys-the-dip/

 

?  is this not simply trading in a broker/dealer capacity?

 

It likely is. But can they buy things for their customers what they consider a fraud?

 

Exactly.  It's a fraud and a scam and I'll fire anyone who buys it because they are stupid, but if you're our customer and you want some we'll be happy to facilitate the trade.

 

So Jamie Dimon personally has to agree with the investment merits of every trade his clients want to make?  I think this whole JPM/bitcoin thing is ridiculous

 

 

No but his company shouldn't be providing know fraudulent investments to its clients.  That's like knowing in advance that Bernie Madoff is running a Ponzi scheme yet helping people invest with him.  If he truly believes that it is a fraud as he states, then there is no way his company should be dealing with it in any way.  A brokerage or investment advisor should only offer legitimate investment options for its clients.  It seems unethical to me to do otherwise.

 

He's simply recognizing that crypto-currency is already a mania, and that folks are going to trade in these tulips - no matter what he might personally think. His forceful statement on the subject is the 'get out of jail free' card - removing a punters ability to successfully sue when this ultimately blows up at some time.

 

In the meantime selling drugs to junkies is a profitable business, they have a comparative advantage, and they aren't afraid to use it. It also helps to remind ourselves that Tulip mania was simply an early example of momentum investing, which is a widely accepted practice today.

 

SD

     

[Sharad]

I'll stick with the ones I selected in the previous "Your 2017 Best Ideas" topic that was made in January 2017:

 

... NVO - Novo Nordisk (still cheap compared to their long term average, peers and return to shareholder perspective, with impressive ROA in the 40% range); ...

 

No post from me so far in this topic about the topic title, but I have to agree with you here, Sharad. However it's not for everyone to be invested in NVO. Basically, it's GARP investing, and a very bumpy ride ... - at least it has been so for the last few years. I certainly agree with you using a long term lens.

 

Thank you John,

 

I'm still looking at other Danish companies, especially CHR Hansen. I'll be buying a 20% position soon, with intention to buy more when it (finally) pulls back. If you have any new news on it, I'd appreciate it (maybe it can be a 2018 pick).

[John Hjorth]

I'll stick with the ones I selected in the previous "Your 2017 Best Ideas" topic that was made in January 2017:

 

... NVO - Novo Nordisk (still cheap compared to their long term average, peers and return to shareholder perspective, with impressive ROA in the 40% range); ...

 

No post from me so far in this topic about the topic title, but I have to agree with you here, Sharad. However it's not for everyone to be invested in NVO. Basically, it's GARP investing, and a very bumpy ride ... - at least it has been so for the last few years. I certainly agree with you using a long term lens.

 

Thank you John,

 

I'm still looking at other Danish companies, especially CHR Hansen. I'll be buying a 20% position soon, with intention to buy more when it (finally) pulls back. If you have any new news on it, I'd appreciate it (maybe it can be a 2018 pick).

 

Hi Sharad,

 

Chr. Hansen Holding A/S is to me a wonderful business. The stock price nowadays, however, is not - at least to me. We're talking a P/E in the 40-50 range. That's just not for me.

 

- - - o 0 o - - -

 

With all due respect for the topic - and its intent - here, and all the constructive posts from fellow board members in this topic: My best idea right now is cash. I'll add quite a lot more cash within a few days, to reduce all positions. Furthermore, I expect to sell something in 2017Q4, to raise even more cash.

 

I'm looking into Danish small cap banks, though, but I'm in no hurry with that. [it's messy.]

 

This line of thinking might be dead for me tomorrow, and I might be deemed thumb sucking. In that case, it will not be the first time.

 

- - -o 0 o - - -

 

Let me just post here, that I have also noticed, that some very contributing fellow board members here on CoBF, have not posted that much here on CoBF recently - that's not meant as some kind of critism - just more of a fact - and I have personally thought about that.

 

Absolutely nobody mentioned, but everybody specicifically remembered, each in their very own way, and silence in some way also still appreciated.

[dyow]

My best ideas are still V and PM. Neither is cheap but have held both a long time and like the next 5-10 years for both. Otherwise just building cash.

 

In regards to the bitcoin discussion haven't the greatest investors of all time said things such " if you cant describe your investment in a short paragraph", "if you cant draw it with a crayon" etc etc. I'm completely ignorant to the entire discussion and not calling those involved wrong but it seems like such a terribly complicated investment. Often on the board people can have large differences in opinion on value but not so much of an opinion on what they are actually investing in and what the function of the investment is.  I would have a very hard time putting significant money into an idea that others view the value of so different. Is it a currency, a store of value, a technology, a means of privacy, etc, etc? Not sure that this is opaque as the "black box" that banks were during and after the GFC but it maybe close. Good luck to those involved. If this is the future and Im this ignorant to all of this Im f*cked.

 

I will have a short on-line university course out in the next 4-6 weeks, that is designed with very much this in mind.

Amongst other things the expectation is that it will take the learner through the block chain due diligence process from vision through to implementation, demonstrate via a case study - implementation of clear token in a charity application; demonstrate via a case study - implementation of colored token in a bond issuance application, and conclude with a project where the learner tries it out him/herself under guidance.

 

If you then wish to do it 'for real' afterwards ...

I know a great consultant who can help you - at a very reasonable rate net of a COBF 'friends and family' discount  ;)

 

SD

 

 

Where do I sign up?

[Foreign Tuffett]

Many of the 2017 ideas mentioned look super high beta. In light of this, perhaps it's appropriate that this thread has partially morphed into a discussion of cryptocurrencies.

[wachtwoord]

In regards to the bitcoin discussion haven't the greatest investors of all time said things such " if you cant describe your investment in a short paragraph", "if you cant draw it with a crayon" etc etc. I'm completely ignorant to the entire discussion and not calling those involved wrong but it seems like such a terribly complicated investment. Often on the board people can have large differences in opinion on value but not so much of an opinion on what they are actually investing in and what the function of the investment is.  I would have a very hard time putting significant money into an idea that others view the value of so different. Is it a currency, a store of value, a technology, a means of privacy, etc, etc? Not sure that this is opaque as the "black box" that banks were during and after the GFC but it maybe close. Good luck to those involved. If this is the future and Im this ignorant to all of this Im f*cked.

 

It's not that hard. If you don't understand it on a high conceptual level, don't get suckered into in-depth low level (paid!) trainings.

[Hawks]

My best idea is to have lots of cash ready.

[Hawks]

Still sticking to mostly cash, 80-90%.  What are others doing?

[Rainforesthiker]

Mostly Berkshire, BAM, Markel and Fairfax

 

[cubsfan]

I'm still adding to BAM, DVA & WFC - but also started a position in HBI, which looks pretty interesting.

[ICUMD]

FIH.U - biggest holding.

Mostly invested - access to large Line of credit in case of correction.

 

Speculative holdings:  FRO, BABA, TCEHY. Googl. IFFNY.

[Paarslaars]

Still sticking to mostly cash, 80-90%.  What are others doing?

 

Added to FFH and some of my oil positions over the past weeks.

Fully invested as well without a large line of credit  :P

I'm hoping we reach high oil prices before a correction.

[york]

It will be a race to the end between Bellamy's Australia (BAL:ASX) and Restoration Hardware (RH:NYSE). Both have preformed alright this year.

[Aberhound]

I sold all my tax free savings account stocks in January and bought Bitcoin then added all new savings to Bitcoin and Ethereum since then mostly whenever there were big dips.

 

Wow.  I didn't even come close to going all-in like that.  I'd have to go and figure it out, buy I've probably invested about $10K total in my entire basket of cryptocurrencies in the last 2 years, maybe a little less.  That small amount is in the 6-figures now. Had I done what you did, I'd be retiring now.

 

 

If you guys don't mind-

 

- What are both of your thoughts on cryptos going forward?  Which specific cryptos are you most bullish on?

- How are you storing your crypto assets?  I have been holding btc, eth, and lc but I keep them in coinbase which I understand isn't without substantial risk.  Moving outside of coinbase seems somewhat complicated and messy

 

I store my cryptos on Nano Ledger S and I am considering switiching to Xapo now that the amounts are getting bigger. I am also learning new password tricks. Basically you come up with at least 4 random words and that is your string. My computer guy explains that it takes advantage of human strength while to a computer it has high difficulty if the words are random. I had to stop using password database on my phone as MacAfee explains that phones might have hacks which record your screens. I do nothing on my phone and only interface the trading on a wired LAN never wireless.

 

The specific crypto I am bullish on is EtherParty whose crowdsale is in days. They make smart contracts easy and the system is working and I met the CEO Kevin who is very smart, connected and capable and seems well able to lead a team of top programmers, many of who are multi-millionaires now. I consider it a form of cat herding so I admire such talent. The system is up an running and I saw demonstration of a working sport bet system and ICOs which took 2 minutes to put up on the Ethereum blockchain. One law firm is using their enterprise version to put all their legal precedents into smart contracts so they will earn subscriptions. I see strong network effects as I don't know others who draft contracts for clients then turn around and pay royalties to the client who paid when the same or similar contracts are sold to others. EP will therefore quickly amass the best selection of smart contracts and every smart contract will require the EP tokens as fuel. Prices are in USD so like BTC the coins are transactional and useful and to those users they don't care about the price. Like BTC there is limited supply but 50x greater at 1B but this supply will be used up as fuel and speculators like me will hoard so supply will diminish. Remember all the participants in EP watched their ETH increase 30-100 fold and many regret selling too early so I expect EP itself and its insiders to hoard. Their incentive is to make the EP to be super useful with a decreasing cost of use in USD through volume to create the strongest network effect possible. Then you borrow against the EP tokens instead of spending them. Companies that use smart contracts will have an incentive to buy EP early so their cost in terms of what they paid will be lower while the more they buy, driving up price the more their competitors will have to pay. Early adopters will lock in a massive competitive advantage with the more they buy and hoard, the greater the advantage. I like to hold assets with rising demand and shrinking supply and I see massive use. One market for instance is for gamers so they can do smart contracts to trade virtual assets etc..

 

Between BTC and ETH I prefer ETH until the hard fork when proof of stake is introduced. That will make holding ETH pay a return when you stake the tokens which many speculators will do. EP will also contribute to ETH demand initially. Long term I prefer BTC as the more decentralized the safer from having the supply increased and with the BCH bitcoin cash token you have two similar competing coins which will drive innovation faster by competition. I think that is likely why Jiwan supported its creation to improve the competitiveness of BTC and BCH as against ETH and others. EP will soon work with BTC as well through a deal with RSK. Legal contracts on BTC via RSK look to my programmer to be more secure as compared to ETH so long term I believe the legal community will prefer the more secure smart contracts once that is understood. ...

 

 

 

Etherparty FUEL token starting to run up in value nicely. Beta testing of the smart contracts ongoing and the easy smart contract interface is expected Q1 2018. The FUEL token is required to use the smart contracts and some ETH is required to make the FUEL token work as the system currently runs on the ETH blockchain. I expect smart contracts to put globalization into hyperdrive. For example, right now lending is mostly local so you can go to Court and sue. Smart contracts are self executing so require little or no trust and recourse to Courts is not required. How many people in poor countries are desperate to not spend their crypto, mostly BTC, to buy food etc.? What interest rate would they be willing to pay to get that loan? People expecting to enjoy a greater return than the interest rate they pay are willing to pay almost any rate of interest provided the return is higher and lenders can time their loans during 30%+ dips which in the crypto world seem to happen at least quarterly.  It is obvious that people will use smart contracts to lend where the interest rates are higher. This has been a 5 bagger since December (4 cents to 20 cents) and will likely be another 5 bagger in Q1 2018 as the company has promised to sell the tokens for no less than $1 or the market price whichever is higher. This encourages hoarding and creates demand from users when the exchange price is less than $1. Most Whales are hoarding as users don't care about transaction price of FUEL so why make it available cheap? Users are indifferent to price as the smart contracts are sold for US dollars price so you pay whatever FUEL price is required. Buy on Binance which is a crypto exchange. Own some Binance tokens for lower trading fees. Whoever figures out how to automate such lending in small amounts will make a fortune. I expect generalist tools like EP which are inherently far more flexible will perform better over time than specialist lending tokens like Populous (receivable financing) or SALT (lending secured by crypto in US). On launch I expect the four biggest volume smart contracts contracts will be sport betting where a US engine was already functional in September, the ICO engine and the escrow contracts below and an video game smart contract system for trading virtual magical items etc. which was in development in September. Suppose EP charges $1 per contract (my guess for the price for bets or video game contracts) to $20,000 (the ICO engine expected price) for such smart contracts? What will the demand be for FUEL tokens? Bookies, banks and lawyers are soon going to be disrupted and they should be buying FUEL to hedge losses. I bought EP to hedge my legal business so my risk v. reward was better than most. Companies that realize the potential of smart contracts can lock in a permanent competitive advantage by buying the tokens now and the more they hoard the greater their competitive advantage over their competitors as hoarding drives up the price and most whale users will have a similar incentive to hoard. It is anyone's guess how much the law firm spending $1M to make their precedent database available on this engine has bought so far for this reason. Their demand alone could have caused this price spike. Volumes are taking off which means other crypto investors are exchanging their crypto for FUEL tokens, mostly on Binance or people like this law firm and my firm are hedging. Just wait until cash demand for FUEL tokens from users starts to create new demand and the company hoards the tokens when users pay for the smart contracts (remember the company promises not to sell tokens for less than $1 and the company raised $50M in crypto in September which is now worth about $150M so they have little need or incentive to sell tokens other than those which are bought by smart contract users on launch and the tokens sold to fund the current expenses (about 20 employees + downtown Vancouver office)). Many users such as law firms will have a strong incentive to promote this system upon launch so investors get the benefit of far more than the work of these 20 employees.

 

This video shows how to create a crowdfund ICO in 2 minutes using EP:

 

 

This video shows how to create an escrow contract to pay someone to paint your house:

 

 

Etherparty Charts

https://www.worldcoinindex.com/coin/etherparty