Japan opportunity

[dealraker]

4 hours ago, Spekulatius said:

That could hurt:

https://www.shikokubank.co.jp/profile/seiyaku.html

Oh my!

[Dalal.Holdings]

5 hours ago, Spekulatius said:

That could hurt:

https://www.shikokubank.co.jp/profile/seiyaku.html

 

Now that's a sound banking regime

[Thelilyinvestor]

Sepukku in the game

[fareastwarriors]

On 11/24/2024 at 12:06 PM, Spekulatius said:

That could hurt:

https://www.shikokubank.co.jp/profile/seiyaku.html

 

 Mitsubishi UFJ  didn't get the memo?
Time to update the employee handbook

 

Japan’s largest bank apologizes over theft of millions of dollars from safe deposit boxes

[Spekulatius]

Recenr additions to my Japan basket are Elan 6099 and Fuso Chemical  4368.

 

As I mentioned before, I don’t do net nets in Japan, I buy stocks more based on a Greenblatt screen (decent / higher ROE, low EV/EBIT and organic growth). I want to see some revenue growth will all my stocks to avoid value traps and holding more for the longer term.

 

Elan does supply nursing homes and hospitals with uniforms and consumables. I found it when looking again and VSTS and UNFI and while a bit different, Elan is actually a better business, I think.

 

It was mentioned a while ago in one. Of these Japan focused blogs. (Forgot which one and I put it on my watch list as it was too expensive back then, but now came to a reasonable valuation).

 

Fuso Chemical was mentioned in another thread ad an example for the semiconductor supply chain. They do ultrapure chemical  for the food industry etc traditionally but started to supply semiconductor with colloidal silica and other substances. Apparently they supply TSMC and others and have a very strong market position for these chemicals, that are used for polishing wafers and are tuned for the process nodes. So it seems like a hide  

champion sort of business that scales with wafer throughout is available at very sensitive valuations.

 

My knowledge of these business is only an inch deep, I evaluate it based on how I perceive the business, the LT track record and how management presents itself to investors. I buy a basket of these stocks and just try to leave them alone.

 

Other buys are 6723 (Renesas - semiconductors) 

Edited December 25, 2024 by Spekulatius

[Spekulatius]

4368 FUSO chemical numbers look pretty good to me:

https://fusokk.co.jp/eng/wp/wp-content/themes/fuso/images/ir/summary_of_consolidated_financial_results_250207.pdf
 

They made already 260 Yen/share in 9 month, but kept their forecast for annual earnings at 259Yen..

 

As I mentioned before, they seem to have a lock on high purity polishing material ingredients for semiconductor manufacturing for nm scale nodes.

 

I think I am buying motor of this bugger if the stock doesn’t move.

[Spekulatius]

Another one I own that reported today AD Holon 7745:

https://andholon.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/holdings_tanshin_20250207_en.pdf
 

There is a VIC thesis on that one and it made a nice run after it posted and then came all the way back. The business while underperforming some expectations has performed  quite well in absolute terms. The semiconductor growth segment (e- beam metrology for litho masks ) has very good profit margins, exceeding 30%.

The stock trades at 9x earnings.

 

[Spekulatius]

Posting this here because why not. Elan Corp $6099 . It‘s a uniform/ consumables companies with quite a bit of growth, The stock took a dump recently when I bought a few shares around 700Yen for my Japan basket.

Not a Graham stock, but I think the growth makes it worth it.

https://ssl4.eir-parts.net/doc/6099/ir_material4/244816/00.pdf

[jefke]

Saw this one pop up on twitter: Broadleaf $3673

 

https://x.com/alexeliasson/status/1890801339971563531

 

"Market leading software provider to the Japanese automotive aftermarket. Full focus on transition to SaaS since 2022, taking a big up front hit."

 

Everything seems to be on track and anything in the neighbourhood of their "2028 plan" is a homerun. (That said, these plans are not guidance!)

 

 

 

 

Edited Monday at 07:16 PM by jefke

[Spekulatius]

@jefke $3673 looks interesting. Looks like they went cold Turkey with their transitioning to the SAAS model. if a company does that there is a huge hit to revenues, earnings send cash flows.

I own $9928 (ERP/Tax software) which took a more gradual approach.

https://contents.xj-storage.jp/xcontents/AS08232/3ef18a9b/4d97/4e0f/b957/fab3450580ac/20241126112026890s.pdf

 

I added $3673 to my watch list. Thank you for posting.

Edited Monday at 10:31 PM by Spekulatius

[Spekulatius]

FUSO $4368 just upped their earnings forecasts. This should not have been a surprised because they basically earned the forecasted 250 Yen/ share in the first 9 month and that was announced a few days ago.

https://fusokk.co.jp/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/e131a439485591dfe06d646ec91e09b9.pdf

 

Amazing how inefficient some markets still are. Stock is up ~10%.

[coffeecaninvestor]

On 11/8/2024 at 7:31 PM, Stuart D said:

Heard a pitch on Subaru. Trading below cash. Mid single digit PE. Shareholder returns 30-50% of income, split between dividends and buybacks.

I heard about it on just about all value investing podcasts or letters. Smead capital just put it in their latest letter. I am always skeptical about the opportunities with the most consensus that are constantly touted.  

[Dinar]

@Spekulatiushttps://fusokk.co.jp/eng/wp/wp-content/themes/fuso/images/ir/fusovision2025.pdf

 

Spek, when they talk in this presentation about FY 2025, do they actually mean FY 2025 or calendar 2025?  Thank you.  The company raised guidance in that presentation to JPY 85bn in revenues and 19bn JPY in operating income, which is 18% higher than their today's forecast for FY 2025?

[Spekulatius]

1 hour ago, Dinar said:

@Spekulatiushttps://fusokk.co.jp/eng/wp/wp-content/themes/fuso/images/ir/fusovision2025.pdf

 

Spek, when they talk in this presentation about FY 2025, do they actually mean FY 2025 or calendar 2025?  Thank you.  The company raised guidance in that presentation to JPY 85bn in revenues and 19bn JPY in operating income, which is 18% higher than their today's forecast for FY 2025?

My understanding is that it’s the current year which does not match the calendar year.

Yes, the earning releases of Japanese companies constantly confuse me on this matter as well.