Semper Augustus

[Charlie]

John Hjorth

 

The most money manager are far, far worse. So don´t criticize these ones who write something valueable. 

Additional "doing nothing" is a very important concept as an investor.

If he focus his thoughts with writing in his "doing nothing" time there is nothing wrong with it.

In the end it´s his track record that counts.

 

[John Hjorth]

@Charlie,

 

Please read between the lines of my post. I'm simply just grumpy because I have never downloaded the Semper Augustus letters in a systematic way and saving them, because I did not expect this change in access to them ever to happen. 

 

Personally I've always considered the letters high quality related to Berkshire.

 

- - - o 0 o - - -

 

After looking at it for some time I found the following :

 

The fact also is that they are still available on the website, please visit:

 

https://www.semperaugustus.com/clientletter , and

https://www.semperaugustus.com/client-letters .

 

Perhaps this is a change for the 2022 letter and going forward, the letters earlier released then will go dark?

Edited December 27, 2022 by John Hjorth

[ValueMaven]

Chris is extremely thoughtful with his time and is anchored in VALUE.  I am a fanboy

[Xerxes]

On 12/26/2022 at 11:22 PM, John Hjorth said:

 

Thank you, @Xerxes,

 

You're right, i.e. same observation for me.

 

Personally, I have enjoyed tremendously Mr. Bloomstrans Berkshire writing for years now, but since I read his first letter, always have been thinking about the below mentioned.

 

There was no way with regard Mr. Bloomstrans public appearance and behavior [public letters for clients, twitter appearance , interviews, etc.] during the last years that he would not be approached by one or several of his LPs asking him challenging questions about his time allocation, confronting him with questions about if running a fund with external partners with USD 330 M in assets is considered by Mr. Bloomstran as a part time job.

 

There is a difference between being an investor, a writer, a money manager, a GP in a fund or a sermonator when you're a Berkaholic.  In my opinion, there are lots of people out there who can't relate to their role and assumed responsibilities, related to actual own behavior.

 

Somehow, it's all about ticket selling or personal branding, most of the cases "I'm good in this I'm doing, so now I'm going to make money on that as a writer [, too, $X pr. month pr. subsciption]", forgetting what I was actually doing in the first place, and getting paid for doing before this "misperception".]

 

I simply can't remember how many of these "writers" I have seen run out of steam in the last decade.

 

 

the letters are great. But the time allocation to it is odd vs the rest of its portfolio. 
 

I don’t have any direct investment with Mr Bloomstrans, so perhaps none of my business , but my selfish side would want him to write about his other positions as well. I recall few years ago he briefly wrote about Starbucks, Walt Disney, Costco    . That was nice. More if that. 

[Xerxes]

I think the Semper 2023 letter is released the day before BRK letter. 
 

So coming soon 

[throw123]

its out

[Gamecock-YT]

149 pages lol

Edited February 24 by Gamecock-YT

[John Hjorth]

Impressive, as always.

 

He has 2023 intrinsic value of Berkshire per B share at USD 479 [p. 114].

 

From what I have read on Twitter, Mr. Bloomstran has been going through a full hip transplant in early December 2023. Alone in that light and context,  an impressive piece of work.

 

Such thing happening obviously does not cause the cock to drop from the stick.

 

Many of the topics he has taken up this time in the letter appear more interesting to me than the topics in earlier letters.

 

I look forward to the read at a later moment.

 

- - - o 0 o - - -

 

Semper Augustus Investment Group LLC - 2023 Letter to Clients [Link].

[Luca]

Always a great read...! 

[Jaygo]

The China section is mind boggling. I have no clue how it all plays out but a halving of population in 50 years is certainly going to cause some havoc. My e it works out like for the Japanese or maybe it doesn’t. 
 

I really enjoyed the letter this year. The detail on brk is so valuable to me, you can really get a grasp of the business and potential valuation. 

[formthirteen]

10 minutes ago, Jaygo said:

The China section is mind boggling. I have no clue how it all plays out but a halving of population in 50 years is certainly going to cause some havoc. My e it works out like for the Japanese or maybe it doesn’t. 

 

LOL:

 

 

IMO, China has hit the "communist plateau"; copying technology only gets you so far, after that culture takes over. China's decline will only increase going forward as they continue meddling with citizens and private businesses and the effect from the CCP "one child policy" instated in the 70s and 80s increases, malinvestments increasing the decline even more. Most of the world's innovation still seems to come from the US.

[Jaygo]

4 minutes ago, formthirteen said:

IMO, China has hit the "communist plateau"; copying technology only gets you so far, after that culture takes over. China's decline will only increase going forward as they continue meddling with citizens and private businesses and the effect from the CCP "one child policy" instated in the 70s and 80s increases, malinvestments increasing the decline even more. Most of the world's innovation still seems to come from the US.

 

I'm sure the Chinese are plenty inventive and innovative but i would imagine most would try and get to more open societies in Asia or elsewhere before unveiling their IP.

Having the fear of pissing off the CCP must push away a lot of their best and brightest.

 

And yes the letter has lots of humour, some of it lands and some of it doesn't but he certainly tries.  

 

[Cigarbutt]

Impressive amount of info indeed but recovering from a hip replacement is not what it used to be.

There were some comments about profit margins (overall market and some specific companies). Mr. Bloomstran suggests that we've seen a peak in margins but this is a dangerous area to forecast it seems.

Below is a graph suggesting that the NPM/GDP ratio has entered a new era with a positive slope instead of the cyclicality within a "band of normalcy" from decades before?

Below is what Mr. Buffett included in his 'market valuation and rational expectations' 1999 article.

It's hard to forecast even if the underlying reasoning is sound. 

-----

In the letter, there is a section showing that many BRK's subs have benefitted from rising profit margins in the last 20 years. Not Geico however, which showed a variable margin (combined ratio) over time; its value was more into growth and resilience (although many predicted an ominous demise not so long ago, especially compared to Progressive).

Unaudited numbers for 2023, Geico 90.7%, Progressive 94.9%.

[treasurehunt]

2 hours ago, Cigarbutt said:

Unaudited numbers for 2023, Geico 90.7%, Progressive 94.9%.

 

Also, premiums earned for 2023: Geico - 39,264 & Progressive - 58,664.

 

Stunning, considering that premiums earned were pretty even as recently as 2019.

[gfp]

2 hours ago, treasurehunt said:

 

Also, premiums earned for 2023: Geico - 39,264 & Progressive - 58,664.

 

Stunning, considering that premiums earned were pretty even as recently as 2019.

 

It's been great - at $40-50 Billion market cap Progressive was one of those companies you could have held an auction on a desert island and made money.  At $110 Billion I'm not so sure but these folks are very good at what they do.

 

[longterminvestor]

Been saying it for a while.  GEICO is getting SMOKED by Progressive.  Its not even close.