What do you think is true, that most everyone believe the opposite?

[mcliu]

Don't forget Vancouver Real Estate. Everyone thinks Vancouver RE is not a bubble since it's land constrained and there will always be demand from Chinese buyers. ::)

[augustabound]

Don't forget Vancouver Real Estate. Everyone thinks Vancouver RE is not a bubble since it's land constrained and there will always be demand from Chinese buyers. ::)

 

From everything I've read, it seems an even split among bubble believers and those who don't.

[writser]

That 80% of the people on this forum should close their account and start indexing.

That "the outsiders" is overrated.

[rkbabang]

WEB has become overrated.

 

With a few exceptions, the worst financial advice comes from articles the have WEB's name in the headline.

 

The 21st century will have fewer deaths from war on a per capita basis then the 20th century did.

 

The USA will continue to dominate the world economically and culturally in the 21st century.

 

The % of US pop that attends college will decline.

 

With the possible exception of the first item, I would immediately agree with all of the others, which makes me wonder if they are really that contrarian.  I think most Americans think that America will continue to dominate economically and culturally forever.  I obviously don't think that is the case, but I do think it is likely that the age of American dominance will last into the 22nd century.  Also many people are realizing that college is a bad deal for a lot (most?) people.  And also it is pretty obvious that the majority of online articles with WEB in the headline are clickbait.  The first one intrigues me however. In what ways do you think WEB is overrated?  Do you think he is just lucky? The theory that if you start with 100,000,000 people flipping coins and only let those who flip heads onto the next round, someone is going to get heads 25 times in a row?

 

[Uccmal]

WEB has become overrated.

 

With a few exceptions, the worst financial advice comes from articles the have WEB's name in the headline.

 

The 21st century will have fewer deaths from war on a per capita basis then the 20th century did.

 

The USA will continue to dominate the world economically and culturally in the 21st century.

 

The % of US pop that attends college will decline.

 

With the possible exception of the first item, I would immediately agree with all of the others, which makes me wonder if they are really that contrarian.  I think most Americans think that America will continue to dominate economically and culturally forever.  I obviously don't think that is the case, but I do think it is likely that the age of American dominance will last into the 22nd century.  Also many people are realizing that college is a bad deal for a lot (most?) people.  And also it is pretty obvious that the majority of online articles with WEB in the headline are clickbait.  The first one intrigues me however. In what ways do you think WEB is overrated?  Do you think he is just lucky? The theory that if you start with 100,000,000 people flipping coins and only let those who flip heads onto the next round, someone is going to get heads 25 times in a row?

 

 

RE: WEB: Someone has to be the best.  Luck and fortuitous timing certainly helped.  His Aspergers allowed him intense focus. 

 

If his first investments had been a bust we would never have heard of him.  It was the early success that built the frame for his later success.  He is obviously very smart, very adaptable, and careful.  Once he made the early money he focussed on preservation. 

 

Is he smarter than many other investors we have never heard of - unlikely. 

[SmallCap]

WEB has become overrated.

 

With a few exceptions, the worst financial advice comes from articles the have WEB's name in the headline.

 

The 21st century will have fewer deaths from war on a per capita basis then the 20th century did.

 

The USA will continue to dominate the world economically and culturally in the 21st century.

 

The % of US pop that attends college will decline.

 

With the possible exception of the first item, I would immediately agree with all of the others, which makes me wonder if they are really that contrarian.  I think most Americans think that America will continue to dominate economically and culturally forever.  I obviously don't think that is the case, but I do think it is likely that the age of American dominance will last into the 22nd century.  Also many people are realizing that college is a bad deal for a lot (most?) people.  And also it is pretty obvious that the majority of online articles with WEB in the headline are clickbait.  The first one intrigues me however. In what ways do you think WEB is overrated?  Do you think he is just lucky? The theory that if you start with 100,000,000 people flipping coins and only let those who flip heads onto the next round, someone is going to get heads 25 times in a row?

 

from my perspective WEB has BECOME overrated in the last 10 years or so. I truly think he is the most amazing investor that we have any long term public record of. I think he has immense wisdom and insight and is well worth reading and studying. i started reading his AR back in the early 90's and just loved them, every article that came out about him I read.

 

What I see now is that he is so famous that every little utterance of his is dissected and blown out of proportion. I don't think his utterances are nearly as candid or useful as they used to be. I don't think what he has done in the last 10 years has been that awe inspiring, don't get me wrong, it's still really good, but it's tagged onto the end of 50 years of investing brilliance and that is what has made it amazing.

 

I think the media bubble around him has both caused him to be more private about his investing and also has caused him to give opinions that are outside of his circle of competence (politics). Those various opinions he has that are outside of his circle of competence I see the same way as when a Hollywood star starts voicing their opinion about political and economic situations. The media picks it up because they said it. WEB has been getting that star treatment from the media for the last 10-15 years it seems.

 

My statement isn't a put down of him but a realization that the bubble around him has made him into something bigger then he is.

 

O and I will acknowledge that there was SOME luck involved in his incredible record in the same way that Joe Dimaggio had some luck involved in his 56 game hitting streak, that doesn't take away from the fact that he was an amazing player who was playing insanely good baseball at the time, but there was some luck involved in him keeping that streak going. WEB is the best of the best that we know about but yes he had some help by luck along the way.

[rkbabang]

Fair enough on all points. Thanks.

[Jurgis]

That 80% of the people on this forum should close their account and start indexing

 

I think a lot of people believe that other people should close their accounts and start indexing.  8)

[Jurgis]

Also many people are realizing that college is a bad deal for a lot (most?) people.

 

Bull...crap.

 

College is still the best salary enhancing option available for majority of people.

 

Of course, a lot of people select crappy majors, but that's not college's fault.

 

And BTW few exceptional cases of people who never finished college does not mean that college is a bad deal for 90%+ others.

[rkbabang]

Also many people are realizing that college is a bad deal for a lot (most?) people.

 

Bull...crap.

 

College is still the best salary enhancing option available for majority of people.

 

Of course, a lot of people select crappy majors, but that's not college's fault.

 

And BTW few exceptional cases of people who never finished college does not mean that college is a bad deal for 90%+ others.

 

College is a great deal for Math, Engineering, Medicine, or other Tech majors.  It isn't a great deal for almost everyone else. Certainly not for 90% of people who go.  To be loaded down with debt and end up doing a job you could have done without college is not a good deal.  As more and more realize this, you are going to see a shift away from traditional colleges and more toward on the job training and/or other non-degree training.  That is just my opinion.    If my kids wanted to go to school for women's studies or art history, etc, I'd tell them that they were nuts.

 

 

[Jurgis]

caused him to give opinions that are outside of his circle of competence (politics).

 

WEBs opinions about politics are not outside his circle of competence.

[rkbabang]

caused him to give opinions that are outside of his circle of competence (politics).

 

WEBs opinions about politics are not outside his circle of competence.

 

Considering that he is wrong everytime he opens his mouth to talk about such things I would disagree with you.

 

[augustabound]

That 80% of the people on this forum should close their account and start indexing

 

I think a lot of people believe that other people should close their accounts and start indexing.  8)

 

To be fair, writser never said which side of the coin he is or should be on.

[Jurgis]

Also many people are realizing that college is a bad deal for a lot (most?) people.

 

Bull...crap.

 

College is still the best salary enhancing option available for majority of people.

 

Of course, a lot of people select crappy majors, but that's not college's fault.

 

And BTW few exceptional cases of people who never finished college does not mean that college is a bad deal for 90%+ others.

 

College is a great deal for Math, Engineering, Medicine, or other Tech majors.  It isn't a great deal for almost everyone else. Certainly not for 90% of people who go.  To be loaded down with debt and end up doing a job you could have done without college is not a good deal.  As more and more realize this, you are going to see a shift away from traditional colleges and more toward on the job training and/or other non-degree training.  That is just my opinion.    If my kids wanted to go to school for women's studies or art history, etc, I'd tell them that they were nuts.

 

OK, so women's studies or art history majors are crap (not for everyone, but for 90% attending - I agree).

So your solution to this is "don't go to college"? In other words, you are saying "you gonna get a crappy job with degree in crappy major, so don't go to college and get a crappy job without a degree"???

[Jurgis]

caused him to give opinions that are outside of his circle of competence (politics).

 

WEBs opinions about politics are not outside his circle of competence.

 

Considering that he is wrong everytime he opens his mouth to talk about such things I would disagree with you.

 

Oh, yes, I know that you would disagree with me. I did not expect anything less.

 

And actually WEB was not wrong about anything in politics so far. :)

[rkbabang]

caused him to give opinions that are outside of his circle of competence (politics).

 

WEBs opinions about politics are not outside his circle of competence.

 

Considering that he is wrong everytime he opens his mouth to talk about such things I would disagree with you.

 

Oh, yes, I know that you would disagree with me. I did not expect anything less.

 

And actually WEB was not wrong about anything in politics so far. :)

 

Good to know that I am living up to your expectations.  :)

[Jurgis]

That 80% of the people on this forum should close their account and start indexing

 

I think a lot of people believe that other people should close their accounts and start indexing.  8)

 

To be fair, writser never said which side of the coin he is or should be on.

 

This was not a dig at writser. ;)

[Jurgis]

As more and more realize this, you are going to see a shift away from traditional colleges and more toward on the job training and/or other non-degree training.

 

What are good jobs/careers that average Joe and Jane can pursue based on "on the job training and/or other non-degree training"?

 

Is this really something that can cover a significant percentage of middle class?

 

I doubt it, but I'm willing to suspend my disbelief if there are wide ranging good examples. :)

[Jurgis]

That "the outsiders" is overrated.

 

"The Outsiders" likely suffer from survivor bias and possibly selective selection bias. This does not diminish of what the Outsiders from the book did. But it's likely that identifying Outsider in advance is harder than people think.

[eclecticvalue]

That "the outsiders" is overrated.

 

"The Outsiders" likely suffer from survivor bias and possibly selective selection bias. This does not diminish of what the Outsiders from the book did. But it's likely that identifying Outsider in advance is harder than people think.

 

Mainly you have to stick with the Outsider for a Decade or two. Now I feel I can identify Outsiders pretty well it just comes down to the performance which some of it has to do with luck.

 

 

[Jurgis]

Mainly you have to stick with the Outsider for a Decade or two. Now I feel I can identify Outsiders pretty well it just comes down to the performance which some of it has to do with luck.

 

Can you say who you consider to be current Outsiders and invest into?

 

Thanks

[fareastwarriors]

That 80% of the people on this forum should close their account and start indexing

 

I think a lot of people believe that other people should close their accounts and start indexing.  8)

 

To be fair, writser never said which side of the coin he is or should be on.

 

 

I'm indexing in my 401k and have some mutual funds in my IRA.  Yes, I know I probably can't outperform consistently but it's still fun trying.  :)

[writser]

To be fair, writser never said which side of the coin he is or should be on.

 

I didn't because I'm not sure about that yet.

 

"The Outsiders" likely suffer from survivor bias and possibly selective selection bias. This does not diminish of what the Outsiders from the book did. But it's likely that identifying Outsider in advance is harder than people think.

 

I think a lot of (value) investors tend to get overexcited about the narrative and don't pay enough attention to the numbers. The book exemplifies this bias. "Sure, this is a roll-up, is trading at 50x FCF, has a terrible balance sheet and generates no profit yet. But the CEO is an outsider!". Usually followed by the most dangerous words in investing: "this time it's different.".

[oddballstocks]

As more and more realize this, you are going to see a shift away from traditional colleges and more toward on the job training and/or other non-degree training.

 

What are good jobs/careers that average Joe and Jane can pursue based on "on the job training and/or other non-degree training"?

 

Is this really something that can cover a significant percentage of middle class?

 

I doubt it, but I'm willing to suspend my disbelief if there are wide ranging good examples. :)

 

Trade jobs are in very high demand.  You can make $50-60k fairly easily in a trade.  Working at Costco, you make up to $25/hr.  Husband/wife at Costco and we're talking $100k combined salary.  You don't need a college education for that.

 

Starting bulldozer drivers make $60k (someone offered me this job, was more than I was making in software dev at the time).  Crane operators make $120k, not the giant cranes, but standard crane guys at a construction site. 

 

Worked with a guy who's now an exec who barely scraped by in HS. Got a job in tech and went from there.  I know a LOT of people making well into six-figures who were self-taught developers.  One guy wrote the core of NASDAQ's trading system, left college after one year.  Insanely smart guy, apparently college wasn't necessary, NASDAQ still using his code.  Said person also wrote SAC's systems, which is an interesting conversation he loves to have off the record.

 

A lot of sales jobs don't require a college degree.  If you are personable and are knowledgable enough about the product and can deliver results you'll be hired.

 

A friend of a friend owns a nursery, did extremely well for himself.  Purchased lots outside the city in development's path, would resell for millions.  Guy can't read, his wife does anything requiring reading, yet he's a millionaire.

 

I've come to the conclusion in life that smart and motivated people will do well regardless of their education.  They will blaze their own path forward.  College is great for someone with little initiative because it automatically bumps them to a level they couldn't get to from just working on their own.

 

College is necessary for STEM type things, but beyond that I'm not sure anymore, especially at today's prices.

 

For myself I'm positive my outcome in life would be no different if I hadn't finished college.  I had an internship at a startup during school, they offered me my job before finishing, said they didn't care if I just dropped out and started working.  Subsequent companies have all said they don't care about degrees, and going forward I only expect to work for myself.  Finishing college was a nice cherry on top of all the money paid, but held no true value for my career.

[tooskinneejs]

That a not insignificant portion of food labeled as organic will eventually be found to not be so.