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Alberta elects NDP (socialist) government


bizaro86
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I wasn't sure if this was best in the Penn west thread or the Canada housing prices thread, so I started a new one. They have promised a royalty review, which probably reduces capital spending in the oil patch in the short term. I'm more interested in how it affects real estate prices in AB, whether that plus low oil starts a bit of a panic. The conservative party they replace has ruled for 44 years, and Alberta has never elected a party to the left of the incumbents.

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Wow. What a stunning result. Alberta is as right wing as any province in Canada. The NDP (left wing) is being given a gift. Crazy Canadian politics!

 

Yeah, this would be like Texas electing not a Democrat for Governor and house, but a 3rd party way left of the dems.

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I doubt you will see much change in Royalty structure or taxes in light of Us competition.  Typical over reaction by the media.  Canadian governments always backtrack on their promises.  The NDP might even reign in some of the government spending, and cronyism, that is the result of a government too long in power.  BTW - I am not an NDP fan, just pragmatic. 

 

Alberta has managed to piss away their oil windfall just like every other oil state in the world.  It's unfortunate because a big chunk of the oil sands investments are being cancelled permanently, by the big players, due to the competition, cap and trade, and the regulatory burden. 

 

 

 

 

 

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Yes it's stunning.  Albertans have elected a socialist government.  We should expect that Alberta will now be a fiscal basket-case, with indiscriminate levels of spending, inadequate levels of tax, and a sense of entitlement amongst its populace.  Wait a minute....that's how the province was described before the election!

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Wow what a left turn. Any respect I had for Prentice went out the window when he resigned the seat to which he had just elected. Has that ever been done in Canadian politics before?  Talk about gathering up your toys and going home!

 

Probably won’t be nearly as bad as some think and it may have its overall benefits for the people of Alberta. Might have been better to have seen a minority NDP government, but the people have spoken.

 

Hopefully this will not be a re-run of what happened in Ontario. Can’t help but think this is just one more demonstration of the ill will Harper has generated across the country.

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No matter what are anyone's political views, I would say that no one deserve to govern during 44 years in a democracy.

 

This election really is historical, will be interesting to see how it could affect the federal elections this fall.

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Yes it's stunning.  Albertans have elected a socialist government.  We should expect that Alberta will now be a fiscal basket-case, with indiscriminate levels of spending, inadequate levels of tax, and a sense of entitlement amongst its populace.  Wait a minute....that's how the province was described before the election!

 

Definitely, it's not like the last folks running the place were doing a bang up job, which is why there was such a large shift.

 

The market definitely reacted this morning though, with all the big oil companies down ~4-5% when I first checked.

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Perhaps the voters in Alberta are more intelligent than expected. The Tyee.ca had an in depth series comparing Alberta's royalty regime to Norway and others and determined that Norway gets 4 times the yield by using government competition to give them more negotiating power. The Conservative government ineptly announced royalty tax increases two leaders ago but the reality was that it was a large decrease and they have never admitted the current regime was designed poorly. Alberta's massive advantage has been wasted.

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Perhaps the voters in Alberta are more intelligent than expected. The Tyee.ca had an in depth series comparing Alberta's royalty regime to Norway and others and determined that Norway gets 4 times the yield by using government competition to give them more negotiating power. The Conservative government ineptly announced royalty tax increases two leaders ago but the reality was that it was a large decrease and they have never admitted the current regime was designed poorly. Alberta's massive advantage has been wasted.

 

This one? (see below)...  Rachel Notley's energy position is apparently much more practical and closer to that of Peter Lougheed than some socialist fear mongers would have you believe.

 

 

 

Royalty Miscalculation Cost Alberta Billions, Expert Says

 

'The Tories chose to pretend the big blunder did not happen,' says consultant Jim Roy.

By Andrew Nikiforuk, 2 May 2015, TheTyee.ca

 

excerpt:

 

"The Alberta government has failed to collect nearly $2.5 billion per year in resource royalties since 2009 due to a major calculation blunder, according to Jim Roy, a private royalty expert who advises governments around the world.

 

As a consequence, the province has failed to collect $13 billion in the last five years, charges Roy, a former senior advisor on royalty policy for Alberta Energy."

...

 

"But therein lies another problem, Roy said. Alberta has a low royalty rate for bitumen compared to rates in countries that have similar heavy oil resources. Alberta, for example, takes from 25 to 40 per cent of profit, equivalent to 10 per cent of gross revenue. In contrast, Venezuela, which also extracts heavy oil, takes 40 per cent of gross revenue -- four times as much as Alberta.

 

Saudi Arabia captures 85 per cent of profits from its oil fields, while Norway takes 80 per cent of profit -- both three times as much as Alberta, Roy said. ''Newfoundland/Hibernia takes 30 to 50 per cent of profit, plus 7.5 per cent of gross revenue or twice as much as Alberta.''

 

The royalty expert also argues that the province has failed to control the pace of bitumen development. As a result, industry has put too much bitumen on the market and that glut, in turn, has played a role in driving down global prices. ..."

 

 

http://thetyee.ca/News/2015/05/02/Royalty-Miscalculation-Cost-Alberta-Billions/

 

 

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  • 3 years later...

I am new to Alberta politics and hoping some of you can help me out. There's an election soon and the Conservatives are in the lead from the polls I have seen. Implications?

 

I am specifically coming at this from a Peyto shareholder's perspective but also interested in wider ramifications.

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Major push to get TransMountain going if not:

 

1- End of transfer payments Eastward

2- Referendum to separate from rest of Canada

3- 51st States of America!

 

Cardboard

 

Ha - I assume that's more a personal wish list than a probable reality? ;)

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The biggest risk to the United conservative party in AB is the potential that Brian Jean (former leader of the Wild Rose Party) forms a splinter conservative group and splits the right wing vote again. He's talking/exploring the idea with donors/insiders right now.

 

The vote split between wild rose/conservative parties is the biggest reason the NDP won last time. But politicians have big egos, and he very likely expected to win the leadership race after the parties merged.

 

From a Peyto perspective, I don't think it will make much difference.  Their biggest problem is the price of natural gas.

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I am assuming that you have read this Petec based on your comments?

 

http://www.peyto.com/Files/PMReport/2019/PMR20190204.pdf

 

The mood is rapidly changing in Alberta and many CEO's who used to be pretty quiet are now very vocal.

 

It would not take much to rally the population under duress to come at least partially to the scenario that I have mentioned. The hypocrisy and abuse especially from Quebec is starting to really anger Albertans and for good reason. Then you add the highly toxic combination of Trudeau who increased recently transfer payments to Quebec and comes at Bombardier's rescue whenever needed plus foreign organizations such as Rockefeller Foundation who trains and funds anti-pipeline groups to use Liberal courts to block everything and you are hitting boiling point.

 

Cardboard

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I think the AECO issue is more a TCPL competence issue than a government regulation issue... I could be wrong of course, and Peyto might know better than me.

 

I also think it's possible that publicly blaming the AER might get them to speed up which would of course help, whereas publicly blaming TCPL probably just gets you lower quality service. So not a big incentive to do so.

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Canadian voters typically throw an incumbrant out, they don't vote a specific new guy in.

Hence, Alberta will probably end up with a conservative government.

 

The sad part is that Alberta's conservative movement is really a 'gong show'.

8 (AAP, AP, FCPA, PAPA, PC, RPA, UCP, WRP) of the 12 registered political parties running for Alberta's election, are just various brands of conservatism. https://www.elections.ab.ca/parties-and-candidates/parties/

Makes your head spin  ;D

 

If this is how 'conservatives' manage 'their' brand, it doesn't look promising for Alberta.

We just want good governance. Could care less if its the 'comrades', 'libtards', 'tree-huggers', or 'PC's' that do it - just don't screw it up!

 

Hence the smartest thing Albertas conservatives could do for themselves, is cut throats and toss the bodies down a deep well.

One brand of soap gentlemen, not eight! 

 

Obviously not a popular view. But most people would say, 'you get what you deserve'

Hopefully, sanity prevails ...... and sooner, rather than later.

 

SD

 

 

 

 

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I don't think you understand Alberta (AB) politics very well.  AB had a progressive conservative government for 44 continuous years from 1971-2015.  The NDP won the 2015 election due to a split in the right wing vote between the PC's and the Wildrose party.  Those two parties have since come together under the UCP banner (united conservative party) since the last election.  They are currently polling 2x the NDP and it appears they will win in a landslide.  Since 1993 the NDP had only garnered maximum of 4 of the 83 seats in AB and in the 80's they had a max of 16 seats. 

 

Even before 1971, the AB government was a right wing populist party called the Social Credit party that governed for 36 continuous years. So basically AB has had a right leaning government for 80 continuous years before 2015.  A remarkable feat. 

 

The AB election must take place on or before May 31st of this year.  I would say the implications could be far reaching.  AB will  turn to being very pro-business and regain it's economic growth again.  Alberta, if it was it's own country, would rank 9th in the world for GDP per capita.

 

If the Trudeau Liberals win the Canada election this fall, there will likely be more rumblings from this group. 

 

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/saskatchewan/brad-wall-buffalo-project-1.4987354

 

Canadian voters typically throw an incumbrant out, they don't vote a specific new guy in.

Hence, Alberta will probably end up with a conservative government.

 

The sad part is that Alberta's conservative movement is really a 'gong show'.

8 (AAP, AP, FCPA, PAPA, PC, RPA, UCP, WRP) of the 12 registered political parties running for Alberta's election, are just various brands of conservatism. https://www.elections.ab.ca/parties-and-candidates/parties/

Makes your head spin  ;D

 

If this is how 'conservatives' manage 'their' brand, it doesn't look promising for Alberta.

We just want good governance. Could care less if its the 'comrades', 'libtards', 'tree-huggers', or 'PC's' that do it - just don't screw it up!

 

Hence the smartest thing Albertas conservatives could do for themselves, is cut throats and toss the bodies down a deep well.

One brand of soap gentlemen, not eight! 

 

Obviously not a popular view. But most people would say, 'you get what you deserve'

Hopefully, sanity prevails ...... and sooner, rather than later.

 

SD

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Power to the conservatives.

But if the PC's and the WRP were as tight as believed, they would be 2 fewer choices on the voting card come May. If every one of these voters voted for the UCP, as they say they will, the UCP might well beat the NDP; but we know that survey responders frequently lie, and if those PC and WRP boxes still appear on the voting card .... ???

 

There's still MANY shades of blue on the voting card; and a conservative is voting for the SHADE of blue, not the COLOUR blue.

Of course, the spindoctor will swear up and down that isn't true, but until those political parties actually de-register ....

We still have a gong show.

 

SD

 

 

I don't think you understand Alberta (AB) politics very well.  AB had a progressive conservative government for 44 continuous years from 1971-2015.  The NDP won the 2015 election due to a split in the right wing vote between the PC's and the Wildrose party.  Those two parties have since come together under the UCP banner (united conservative party) since the last election.  They are currently polling 2x the NDP and it appears they will win in a landslide.  Since 1993 the NDP had only garnered maximum of 4 of the 83 seats in AB and in the 80's they had a max of 16 seats. 

 

Even before 1971, the AB government was a right wing populist party called the Social Credit party that governed for 36 continuous years. So basically AB has had a right leaning government for 80 continuous years before 2015.  A remarkable feat. 

 

The AB election must take place on or before May 31st of this year.  I would say the implications could be far reaching.  AB will  turn to being very pro-business and regain it's economic growth again.  Alberta, if it was it's own country, would rank 9th in the world for GDP per capita.

 

If the Trudeau Liberals win the Canada election this fall, there will likely be more rumblings from this group. 

 

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/saskatchewan/brad-wall-buffalo-project-1.4987354

 

Canadian voters typically throw an incumbrant out, they don't vote a specific new guy in.

Hence, Alberta will probably end up with a conservative government.

 

The sad part is that Alberta's conservative movement is really a 'gong show'.

8 (AAP, AP, FCPA, PAPA, PC, RPA, UCP, WRP) of the 12 registered political parties running for Alberta's election, are just various brands of conservatism. https://www.elections.ab.ca/parties-and-candidates/parties/

Makes your head spin  ;D

 

If this is how 'conservatives' manage 'their' brand, it doesn't look promising for Alberta.

We just want good governance. Could care less if its the 'comrades', 'libtards', 'tree-huggers', or 'PC's' that do it - just don't screw it up!

 

Hence the smartest thing Albertas conservatives could do for themselves, is cut throats and toss the bodies down a deep well.

One brand of soap gentlemen, not eight! 

 

Obviously not a popular view. But most people would say, 'you get what you deserve'

Hopefully, sanity prevails ...... and sooner, rather than later.

 

SD

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You just can't help yourself can you?  Please do yourself a favor and click on your own elections link.  Then expand the results for Wildrose party, PC's and UCP.  Who is the leader for the three parties? 

https://www.elections.ab.ca/parties-and-candidates/parties/

 

The WRP and PC's voted to merged into UNITED Conservative Party.  95% of both parties agreed to the merger.  How much tighter do you want?  3.5% of the entire population of Alberta are card carrying UCP members.  It is the largest provincial political party in Canada. 

 

Some former WRP members have started Alberta Advantage Party (AAP).

https://edmontonjournal.com/news/politics/party-founded-by-former-wildrose-members-officially-registered-with-elections-alberta

 

The Alberta party (AP) is a bunch of former leftest, who now claim they are centrist. 

 

Tell us again how many conservative parties there are in AB? 

 

And since you don't think it looks promising for conservatives in AB?  Here is some polling info.  100% odds of UCP winning.  http://alberta.338canada.com/

 

I think I'll stop now.

 

Power to the conservatives.

But if the PC's and the WRP were as tight as believed, they would be 2 fewer choices on the voting card come May. If every one of these voters voted for the UCP, as they say they will, the UCP might well beat the NDP; but we know that survey responders frequently lie, and if those PC and WRP boxes still appear on the voting card .... ???

 

There's still MANY shades of blue on the voting card; and a conservative is voting for the SHADE of blue, not the COLOUR blue.

Of course, the spindoctor will swear up and down that isn't true, but until those political parties actually de-register ....

We still have a gong show.

 

SD

 

 

I don't think you understand Alberta (AB) politics very well.  AB had a progressive conservative government for 44 continuous years from 1971-2015.  The NDP won the 2015 election due to a split in the right wing vote between the PC's and the Wildrose party.  Those two parties have since come together under the UCP banner (united conservative party) since the last election.  They are currently polling 2x the NDP and it appears they will win in a landslide.  Since 1993 the NDP had only garnered maximum of 4 of the 83 seats in AB and in the 80's they had a max of 16 seats. 

 

Even before 1971, the AB government was a right wing populist party called the Social Credit party that governed for 36 continuous years. So basically AB has had a right leaning government for 80 continuous years before 2015.  A remarkable feat. 

 

The AB election must take place on or before May 31st of this year.  I would say the implications could be far reaching.  AB will  turn to being very pro-business and regain it's economic growth again.  Alberta, if it was it's own country, would rank 9th in the world for GDP per capita.

 

If the Trudeau Liberals win the Canada election this fall, there will likely be more rumblings from this group. 

 

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/saskatchewan/brad-wall-buffalo-project-1.4987354

 

Canadian voters typically throw an incumbrant out, they don't vote a specific new guy in.

Hence, Alberta will probably end up with a conservative government.

 

The sad part is that Alberta's conservative movement is really a 'gong show'.

8 (AAP, AP, FCPA, PAPA, PC, RPA, UCP, WRP) of the 12 registered political parties running for Alberta's election, are just various brands of conservatism. https://www.elections.ab.ca/parties-and-candidates/parties/

Makes your head spin  ;D

 

If this is how 'conservatives' manage 'their' brand, it doesn't look promising for Alberta.

We just want good governance. Could care less if its the 'comrades', 'libtards', 'tree-huggers', or 'PC's' that do it - just don't screw it up!

 

Hence the smartest thing Albertas conservatives could do for themselves, is cut throats and toss the bodies down a deep well.

One brand of soap gentlemen, not eight! 

 

Obviously not a popular view. But most people would say, 'you get what you deserve'

Hopefully, sanity prevails ...... and sooner, rather than later.

 

SD

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There are still 12 registered political parties

Who sleeps with whom really doesn't matter; how many boxes on the voting card matters, and the sentiment on the day.

 

We all found our last time around that many shades of blue isn't blue - it's orange.

And as conservatives have ruled Alberta for 40 years+  that result could ONLY have been an 'own goal'.

Sure mistakes happen, but this isn't the first time.

 

We dont care who wins; just do it decisivly, and have your house in order.

We don't see that it is, and this is a time when millions of people in Alberta need clear leadership to get things done.

Silence, and toleration of a gong show is counter-productive.

 

Folks in Alberta are angry, as they should be.

They want change, and it isn't going to be 'same old' anymore.

It also isn't going to be just changing the colour of the ruling political party.

 

We wish Albertans luck in their choices

 

SD

 

 

You just can't help yourself can you?  Please do yourself a favor and click on your own elections link.  Then expand the results for Wildrose party, PC's and UCP.  Who is the leader for the three parties? 

https://www.elections.ab.ca/parties-and-candidates/parties/

 

The WRP and PC's voted to merged into UNITED Conservative Party.  95% of both parties agreed to the merger.  How much tighter do you want?  3.5% of the entire population of Alberta are card carrying UCP members.  It is the largest provincial political party in Canada. 

 

Some former WRP members have started Alberta Advantage Party (AAP).

https://edmontonjournal.com/news/politics/party-founded-by-former-wildrose-members-officially-registered-with-elections-alberta

 

The Alberta party (AP) is a bunch of former leftest, who now claim they are centrist. 

 

Tell us again how many conservative parties there are in AB? 

 

And since you don't think it looks promising for conservatives in AB?  Here is some polling info.  100% odds of UCP winning.  http://alberta.338canada.com/

 

I think I'll stop now.

 

Power to the conservatives.

But if the PC's and the WRP were as tight as believed, they would be 2 fewer choices on the voting card come May. If every one of these voters voted for the UCP, as they say they will, the UCP might well beat the NDP; but we know that survey responders frequently lie, and if those PC and WRP boxes still appear on the voting card .... ???

 

There's still MANY shades of blue on the voting card; and a conservative is voting for the SHADE of blue, not the COLOUR blue.

Of course, the spindoctor will swear up and down that isn't true, but until those political parties actually de-register ....

We still have a gong show.

 

SD

 

 

I don't think you understand Alberta (AB) politics very well.  AB had a progressive conservative government for 44 continuous years from 1971-2015.  The NDP won the 2015 election due to a split in the right wing vote between the PC's and the Wildrose party.  Those two parties have since come together under the UCP banner (united conservative party) since the last election.  They are currently polling 2x the NDP and it appears they will win in a landslide.  Since 1993 the NDP had only garnered maximum of 4 of the 83 seats in AB and in the 80's they had a max of 16 seats. 

 

Even before 1971, the AB government was a right wing populist party called the Social Credit party that governed for 36 continuous years. So basically AB has had a right leaning government for 80 continuous years before 2015.  A remarkable feat. 

 

The AB election must take place on or before May 31st of this year.  I would say the implications could be far reaching.  AB will  turn to being very pro-business and regain it's economic growth again.  Alberta, if it was it's own country, would rank 9th in the world for GDP per capita.

 

If the Trudeau Liberals win the Canada election this fall, there will likely be more rumblings from this group. 

 

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/saskatchewan/brad-wall-buffalo-project-1.4987354

 

Canadian voters typically throw an incumbrant out, they don't vote a specific new guy in.

Hence, Alberta will probably end up with a conservative government.

 

The sad part is that Alberta's conservative movement is really a 'gong show'.

8 (AAP, AP, FCPA, PAPA, PC, RPA, UCP, WRP) of the 12 registered political parties running for Alberta's election, are just various brands of conservatism. https://www.elections.ab.ca/parties-and-candidates/parties/

Makes your head spin  ;D

 

If this is how 'conservatives' manage 'their' brand, it doesn't look promising for Alberta.

We just want good governance. Could care less if its the 'comrades', 'libtards', 'tree-huggers', or 'PC's' that do it - just don't screw it up!

 

Hence the smartest thing Albertas conservatives could do for themselves, is cut throats and toss the bodies down a deep well.

One brand of soap gentlemen, not eight! 

 

Obviously not a popular view. But most people would say, 'you get what you deserve'

Hopefully, sanity prevails ...... and sooner, rather than later.

 

SD

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