SafetyinNumbers Posted January 2 Posted January 2 1 minute ago, villainx said: How would Brookfield structure this? If they were the GP?
villainx Posted January 2 Posted January 2 3 minutes ago, SafetyinNumbers said: If they were the GP? Brookfield Corp and one of the sub (infrastructure or renewable for example) was making a massive purchase.
SafetyinNumbers Posted January 2 Posted January 2 1 minute ago, villainx said: Brookfield Corp and one of the sub (infrastructure or renewable for example) was making a massive purchase. Probably in a similar way. They via one of their subsidiaries are the GP of the funds that have LPs which would make the investment in the fund paying fees but I’m not a Brookfield expert. Onex does it similarly. They co-invest with their funds that have LPs.
This2ShallPass Posted January 3 Posted January 3 On 1/2/2026 at 8:43 AM, SafetyinNumbers said: It would be pretty interesting if the fees from IDBI offset most of the FIH fees to FFH as that’s a big part of the bear case. Agreed, would be great if this happens.
hobbit Posted January 5 Posted January 5 IIFL finance + IIFL capital + CSB bank is worth 1.24B as of today, all of these are worth twice as much at the minimum. At this rate we are getting the airport for free
Txvestor Posted January 5 Posted January 5 https://www.thehindu.com/news/cities/bangalore/bengalurus-upcoming-aerotropolis-promises-to-be-a-smart-sustainable-city/article69760457.ece Article from July 2025, but goes into a bit of detail on the plans for airport city. Will likely be a 15yr buildout but BIAL should be a very good internally compounding vehicle.
dartmonkey Posted January 5 Posted January 5 On 1/1/2026 at 2:21 AM, CS said: Ai, take with a grain of salt: “Based on this data, the historical high water mark would be $21.85 per share, reached at the end of 2023. This is the level that the company's book value must surpass for a performance fee to be triggered in subsequent years, assuming the 5% hurdle rate is also exceeded. “ so like hundreds of millions in fees. Here's the grain of salt, then: the fee applies to book value gains beyond 5% of the issuing price ($10) every year. That essentially means that the highwater mark moves up by $0.50/share every year (5% of the issue price), so if $21.85 was the number at the end of 2023, it should be $22.85 now. Doesn't make a huge difference, but assuming I'm right, it means we still have a little runway beyond the current (end of Q3) BV of $20.73/share before FFH takes its 20% cut. Not that I have anything against them taking that fee, on the contrary, I hope they take huge fees, as long as they leave us the other 80%.
SafetyinNumbers Posted January 5 Posted January 5 (edited) 4 hours ago, hobbit said: IIFL finance + IIFL capital + CSB bank is worth 1.24B as of today, all of these are worth twice as much at the minimum. At this rate we are getting the airport for free Some pictures to put into context the move since the last book value was struck at the end of Q325. Edited January 5 by SafetyinNumbers
TwoCitiesCapital Posted January 6 Posted January 6 (edited) 5 hours ago, SafetyinNumbers said: Some pictures to put into context the move since the last book value was struck at the end of Q325. Good call out! 40-50% rallies in 3 of the large underlying public equities certainly changes the math some! An extra $2-3/share in book value pending how they mark the private investments. ...and best of all - the market won't recognize it because much of that gain won't be in the Q4 numbers as a good bit of it happened after 1/1 so won't be until April that the impact gets publicly reported. So we still have more time to accumulate at ~$17 USD. Edited January 6 by TwoCitiesCapital
SafetyinNumbers Posted January 6 Posted January 6 (edited) 1 hour ago, TwoCitiesCapital said: Good call out! 40-50% rallies in 3 of the large underlying public equities certainly changes the math some! An extra $2-3/share in book value pending how they mark the private investments. That started rolling up BIAL’s valuation last quarter, I assume that continues for all of the private holdings. Just like the mothership, the longer they own things it becomes harder to hide the returns. The INR is less of an impact in Q4 as well. I do find it a bit surprising that the INR doesn’t do better given how much gold Indians own. Most of it happened last quarter. Edited January 6 by SafetyinNumbers
Hoodlum Posted January 6 Posted January 6 It looks like Fairfax India will be selling a majority of its shares in IIFL to TPG. This sale would ensure that any remaining shares are now marked to market, if they are not already. https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/business/mc-exclusive-tpg-said-in-be-talks-with-iifl-capital-for-stake-acquisition-13760162.html/amp
villainx Posted January 6 Posted January 6 47 minutes ago, Hoodlum said: remaining shares are now marked to market, if they are not already. Isn't IIFL Cap in the public securities bucket already?
TwoCitiesCapital Posted January 6 Posted January 6 1 hour ago, Hoodlum said: It looks like Fairfax India will be selling a majority of its shares in IIFL to TPG. This sale would ensure that any remaining shares are now marked to market, if they are not already. https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/business/mc-exclusive-tpg-said-in-be-talks-with-iifl-capital-for-stake-acquisition-13760162.html/amp Cha-ching. So somewhere around $280 - $380 million pending closing share price amount and whether it's 20% of the full stake. Enough to conduct more another meaningful tender and/or given them cash to work with for the IBDI auction.
Hoodlum Posted January 6 Posted January 6 1 hour ago, villainx said: Isn't IIFL Cap in the public securities bucket already? Based on Q3 results it looks like IIFL Capital is included in unrealized gains, if I am reading it correctly. Net change in unrealized gains on investments of $59.5 million principally arose from increases in the fair values of the company’s private company investments in BIAL ($160.2 million), Seven Islands ($35.1 million) and Saurashtra ($16.2 million), partially offset by decreases in the fair values of publicly listed investments in IIFL Capital ($68.1 million), Fairchem Organics ($19.6 million), CSB Bank ($19.2 million), IIFL Finance ($15.1 million) and 5paisa ($6.2 million), and on private company investments in Sanmar ($12.2 million) and Jaynix ($9.3 million).
hobbit Posted January 7 Posted January 7 1 hour ago, Haryana said: Fair value = market value for public listed IIFLCap, unrealized gains would be based on market value. unless they did a handshake deal already like in the case of privi and ended up selling at significantly below market value..they can come up with very unique ways to leave money on the table at times
villainx Posted January 7 Posted January 7 Selling a 20%+ stake usually means some discount? Or maybe premium?
TwoCitiesCapital Posted January 7 Posted January 7 1 hour ago, hobbit said: unless they did a handshake deal already like in the case of privi and ended up selling at significantly below market value..they can come up with very unique ways to leave money on the table at times 38 minutes ago, villainx said: Selling a 20%+ stake usually means some discount? Or maybe premium? "Sources indicate that the final transaction contours, particularly on valuations, are under consideration. The deal is expected to conclude at Rs 370 – 400 a share." 370 would imply a discount to today's price - but still a premium to the 2025 closing price. 400 would basically be at/near the ATHs for the stock.
Crip1 Posted January 7 Posted January 7 2 minutes ago, TwoCitiesCapital said: "Sources indicate that the final transaction contours, particularly on valuations, are under consideration. The deal is expected to conclude at Rs 370 – 400 a share." 370 would imply a discount to today's price - but still a premium to the 2025 closing price. 400 would basically be at/near the ATHs for the stock. I vote for 400
gfp Posted January 7 Posted January 7 Economic Times is reporting 30-40% stake is possible with a tender offer to other minority shareholders. https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/industry/banking/finance/tpg-nears-deal-to-buy-30-40-stake-in-nirmal-jains-iifl-capital-open-offer-likely/articleshow/126381174.cms?from=mdr
petec Posted January 7 Posted January 7 On 1/5/2026 at 1:12 PM, Txvestor said: https://www.thehindu.com/news/cities/bangalore/bengalurus-upcoming-aerotropolis-promises-to-be-a-smart-sustainable-city/article69760457.ece Article from July 2025, but goes into a bit of detail on the plans for airport city. Will likely be a 15yr buildout but BIAL should be a very good internally compounding vehicle. I've always assumed that the airport city is included in the concession - i.e. when the concession ends, economic rights to the development of the city will end. Does anyone know if this is right? Or is there some component of what they are developing that is permanently owned by BIAL? For example BIAL Airport Services (which operates lounges) is presumably something they can keep after the concession ends.
gfp Posted January 7 Posted January 7 (edited) 13 minutes ago, petec said: I've always assumed that the airport city is included in the concession - i.e. when the concession ends, economic rights to the development of the city will end. Does anyone know if this is right? Or is there some component of what they are developing that is permanently owned by BIAL? For example BIAL Airport Services (which operates lounges) is presumably something they can keep after the concession ends. This is what Gemini thinks about it - Edited January 7 by gfp
petec Posted January 7 Posted January 7 8 minutes ago, gfp said: This is what Gemini thinks about it - Useful, thanks. I would not ascribe a lot of value to a preferential right to lease in 42 years' time. But good to know!
petec Posted January 7 Posted January 7 (edited) Apologies for the lazy question, but has anyone seen a coherent, detailed justification for why BIAL will be worth (for example) at least 2x current carrying value within 5 years? My gut instinct is that it will be, but I haven't followed it in enough detail to put a good thesis together. Edited January 7 by petec
Txvestor Posted January 7 Posted January 7 1 hour ago, gfp said: This is what Gemini thinks about it - Wouldn't this economic model create a disincentive to invest in the airport coming towards the end of the lease? 2068 is a long way away and it's doubtful it will matter to our investing timeframes but still, I'm not sure of say after 2050 any owner will be willing to put a penny into it under these terms. Likely they will put this out for a bid for extension well before that date.
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