RichardGibbons Posted September 26, 2014 Share Posted September 26, 2014 These are interesting points, some of which I agree with and many of which I don't. The problem is that I don't think at this point that you actually want to have a good-faith discussion about them, and I feel I've made my position very clear to anyone who cares to read it. Plus, it's annoying discussing many of these things, since you either aren't rigorous with definitions, or are deliberately distorting them to try to make your point. (e.g. "value of security" <> "Richard would pay that value"; "value of FFH shares" <> "market price of securities in FFH's portfolio"), and another reason I won't get into. Plus, I have a feeling that the board is pretty sick of this dialog by now, so I think we should give them a break. Don't worry, I'm sure we'll argue about something again before the year is done. :) Good luck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ERICOPOLY Posted September 26, 2014 Share Posted September 26, 2014 I thought you might be serious there for a minute until you started into the "good faith" comment. I think though, that you now recognize that DCF is driven by the securities in the portfolio. So there is really nothing left to discuss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rjstc Posted September 26, 2014 Share Posted September 26, 2014 I'm sure you two will rip me for this but could you please quit your "Chest Bumping" and go back to some good ideas so the rest of us can copy & make some money? Or is this an indication that there are not any good buys out there & this is all you you have time to do in the meantime? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RichardGibbons Posted September 26, 2014 Share Posted September 26, 2014 No, you're right, rjstc. I did actually make a buy today -- ZIV. Doesn't belong on this board though, and it has been discussed elsewhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
giofranchi Posted September 26, 2014 Author Share Posted September 26, 2014 No, you're right, rjstc. I did actually make a buy today -- ZIV. Doesn't belong on this board though, and it has been discussed elsewhere. Any good investment idea belongs on this board! :) So, please, just start a ZIV thread and tell us about the company! ;) Cheers, Gio Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RichardGibbons Posted September 26, 2014 Share Posted September 26, 2014 OK. Here's the thread, Gio, with a tiny update: http://www.cornerofberkshireandfairfax.ca/forum/general-discussion/leveraged-daily-return-etfs/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
giofranchi Posted September 26, 2014 Author Share Posted September 26, 2014 OK. Here's the thread, Gio, with a tiny update: http://www.cornerofberkshireandfairfax.ca/forum/general-discussion/leveraged-daily-return-etfs/ Great! Thank you! :) I am curiuos and I will surely read it. Gio Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rjstc Posted September 26, 2014 Share Posted September 26, 2014 OK. Here's the thread, Gio, with a tiny update: http://www.cornerofberkshireandfairfax.ca/forum/general-discussion/leveraged-daily-return-etfs/ Great! Thank you! :) I am curiuos and I will surely read it. Gio +1 thank you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
giofranchi Posted October 27, 2014 Author Share Posted October 27, 2014 I am selling other investments to buy more Fairfax today and to keep a large cash reserve. Cheers, Gio Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
obtuse_investor Posted October 27, 2014 Share Posted October 27, 2014 I am selling other investments to buy more Fairfax today and to keep a large cash reserve. Cheers, Gio Gio, Why today? (this is neither here or there-- I had a dream last night that in Q3 filing, FFH announced a 100M unrealized profit on their deflations swaps, with guidance of billions to come) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
giofranchi Posted October 27, 2014 Author Share Posted October 27, 2014 Gio, Why today? Because I am getting nervous… During the last few weeks we have witnessed a short market correction… Which nonetheless was painful enough to prompt the FED into saying it is ready to stop the slow unwinding of QE and therefore to resume its stimulus… And the market promptly recovered… I like it less and less… And I demand more and more protection, meaning insulation from the general market. Gio Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
obtuse_investor Posted October 27, 2014 Share Posted October 27, 2014 Gio, Why today? Because I am getting nervous… During the last few weeks we have witnessed a short market correction… Which nonetheless was painful enough to prompt the FED into saying it is ready to stop the slow unwinding of QE and therefore to resume its stimulus… And the market promptly recovered… I like it less and less… And I demand more and more protection, meaning insulation from the general market. Gio I observed that too. These actions tell me that the market is very precarious. In a similar vein, last week I decreased some of my most bullish positions (call LEAPs) and bought some more 30yr US treasuries. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alekbaylee Posted October 27, 2014 Share Posted October 27, 2014 (this is neither here or there-- I had a dream last night that in Q3 filing, FFH announced a 100M unrealized profit on their deflations swaps, with guidance of billions to come) LOL! And do you usually have precognitive dreams? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
obtuse_investor Posted October 27, 2014 Share Posted October 27, 2014 (this is neither here or there-- I had a dream last night that in Q3 filing, FFH announced a 100M unrealized profit on their deflations swaps, with guidance of billions to come) LOL! And do you usually have precognitive dreams? Ha! I wish. This is the very first time I had an earnings call in my dream. I didn't tell my wife-- she may require me to see a psychologist. :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TwoCitiesCapital Posted October 27, 2014 Share Posted October 27, 2014 Gio, Why today? Because I am getting nervous… During the last few weeks we have witnessed a short market correction… Which nonetheless was painful enough to prompt the FED into saying it is ready to stop the slow unwinding of QE and therefore to resume its stimulus… And the market promptly recovered… I like it less and less… And I demand more and more protection, meaning insulation from the general market. Gio Saw that too. Planning on a substantial increase in my FFH position come the new year when I roll my Roth 401k into my regular Roth IRA. Things haven't felt right to me for awhile - but seeing the reaction of general markets to a small correction was certainly disturbing and suggests that we are in fact addicted to the sugar high. Further, deflation in Europe appears even more likely than previously thought and small caps are better positioned for a fall than they've been previously and their bonds are killing it. What's not to like at roughly 1x book? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frommi Posted October 27, 2014 Share Posted October 27, 2014 What's not to like at roughly 1x book? Have you factored in the losses in SD and XCO? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
giofranchi Posted October 27, 2014 Author Share Posted October 27, 2014 Have you factored in the losses in SD and XCO? I am aware Fairfax might declare a loss for Q3 2014 in a few days. If that happens and the price declines, I will buy more gladly: I have never had so much cash before! ;) Gio Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frommi Posted October 27, 2014 Share Posted October 27, 2014 Have you factored in the losses in SD and XCO? I am aware Fairfax might declare a loss for Q3 2014 in a few days. If that happens and the price declines, I will buy more gladly: I have never had so much cash before! ;) Gio What you are doing makes perfect sense to me given whats going on in the market. I just wanted to know if someone has a really good estimation of current bookvalue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
no_free_lunch Posted October 27, 2014 Share Posted October 27, 2014 Further, deflation in Europe appears even more likely than previously thought and small caps are better positioned for a fall than they've been previously and their bonds are killing it. zachmansell, I don't understand the point you are getting at with the small caps. Are you talking about small cap indexes in general or small cap investments of fairfax? Could you elaborate? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jeffmori7 Posted October 27, 2014 Share Posted October 27, 2014 I am selling other investments to buy more Fairfax today and to keep a large cash reserve. Cheers, Gio What have you been selling and why? This is much more interesting! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TwoCitiesCapital Posted October 27, 2014 Share Posted October 27, 2014 What's not to like at roughly 1x book? Have you factored in the losses in SD and XCO? Nope. But also not factoring in gains from other investments or bonds either so I think it is going to be a wash - especially if you dont consider those losses permanent (dunno enough about the co. Further, deflation in Europe appears even more likely than previously thought and small caps are better positioned for a fall than they've been previously and their bonds are killing it. zachmansell, I don't understand the point you are getting at with the small caps. Are you talking about small cap indexes in general or small cap investments of fairfax? Could you elaborate? s to determine) Fairfax is short the Russel 2000 and has been bleeding money in it for years. At this point, small caps are close to being the richest value they've ever seen in decades and we're still in a precarious economic position - if there is a sell off, they should sell off much harder than the general market and finally make money. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CorpRaider Posted November 1, 2014 Share Posted November 1, 2014 Gio, Why today? Because I am getting nervous… During the last few weeks we have witnessed a short market correction… Which nonetheless was painful enough to prompt the FED into saying it is ready to stop the slow unwinding of QE and therefore to resume its stimulus… And the market promptly recovered… I like it less and less… And I demand more and more protection, meaning insulation from the general market. Gio Saw that too. Planning on a substantial increase in my FFH position come the new year when I roll my Roth 401k into my regular Roth IRA. Things haven't felt right to me for awhile - but seeing the reaction of general markets to a small correction was certainly disturbing and suggests that we are in fact addicted to the sugar high. Further, deflation in Europe appears even more likely than previously thought and small caps are better positioned for a fall than they've been previously and their bonds are killing it. What's not to like at roughly 1x book? Hey Zach, Did you buy the pinky? What custodian are you using, if you don't mind me asking? I wonder if they exempting the shares from the withholding tax (as they properly should) in your Roth? Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TwoCitiesCapital Posted November 3, 2014 Share Posted November 3, 2014 Gio, Why today? Because I am getting nervous… During the last few weeks we have witnessed a short market correction… Which nonetheless was painful enough to prompt the FED into saying it is ready to stop the slow unwinding of QE and therefore to resume its stimulus… And the market promptly recovered… I like it less and less… And I demand more and more protection, meaning insulation from the general market. Gio Saw that too. Planning on a substantial increase in my FFH position come the new year when I roll my Roth 401k into my regular Roth IRA. Things haven't felt right to me for awhile - but seeing the reaction of general markets to a small correction was certainly disturbing and suggests that we are in fact addicted to the sugar high. Further, deflation in Europe appears even more likely than previously thought and small caps are better positioned for a fall than they've been previously and their bonds are killing it. What's not to like at roughly 1x book? Hey Zach, Did you buy the pinky? What custodian are you using, if you don't mind me asking? I wonder if they exempting the shares from the withholding tax (as they properly should) in your Roth? Thanks. I own the sheets a Roth at Scottrade. Withholding taxes are taken out of my dividends on foreign shares. I don't know enough about taxes to know if this is appropriate or not. Scottrade told me awhile ago there was nothing they could do about it an I didn't have enough foreign holdings to care until recently. Will be looking into this again as I consider where to move my accounts now that Scottrade doesn't ready quite cut it for me anymore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A_Hamilton Posted November 3, 2014 Share Posted November 3, 2014 Gio, Why today? Because I am getting nervous… During the last few weeks we have witnessed a short market correction… Which nonetheless was painful enough to prompt the FED into saying it is ready to stop the slow unwinding of QE and therefore to resume its stimulus… And the market promptly recovered… I like it less and less… And I demand more and more protection, meaning insulation from the general market. Gio Saw that too. Planning on a substantial increase in my FFH position come the new year when I roll my Roth 401k into my regular Roth IRA. Things haven't felt right to me for awhile - but seeing the reaction of general markets to a small correction was certainly disturbing and suggests that we are in fact addicted to the sugar high. Further, deflation in Europe appears even more likely than previously thought and small caps are better positioned for a fall than they've been previously and their bonds are killing it. What's not to like at roughly 1x book? Hey Zach, Did you buy the pinky? What custodian are you using, if you don't mind me asking? I wonder if they exempting the shares from the withholding tax (as they properly should) in your Roth? Thanks. I use TD Ameritrade for my Roth and own FRFHF in it. They do not take out the withholding tax. I get the full $10 per share. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CorpRaider Posted November 3, 2014 Share Posted November 3, 2014 Thanks Hamilton. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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