Buffett/Berkshire - general news

[Xerxes]

CFO retiring, one of the “Fellas Down the Hall” moving on, an actual operator taking the helm of the industrial conglomerate … it is time to Make Berkshire Great Again (MBGA)

 

Next step: clean up the portfolio of all the small % non-valued added equity investments, that are just there to amuse Warren. Go big or go home. 
 

I want to see 13F filing in Q1 and Q2 showing all the junk gone. Pronto 

[John Hjorth]

13 hours ago, Peregrine said:

He fired more than half the people at GEICO.

 

@Peregrine,

 

Please get your statements presented as facts here on CofB&F about already available data correct by actually walking the walk needed to do so.

 

- - - o 0 o - - -

 

GEICO - Number of employeés :

 

Google AI :

 

 

From Berkshire Annual Reports :

 

2015 AR, p. 115, for EOP 2015 : 34.070

2016 AR, p. 116, for EOP 2016 : 36,085

2017 AR, p. A-1, for EOP 2017 : 38,691

2018 AR, p. A-1, for EOP 2018 : 39,982

2019 AR, p. A-1, for EOP 2019 : 41,483

2020 AR, p. A-6, for EOP 2020 : 42,156 [<- Todd Combs joins GEICO 1^st January this year]

2021 AR, p. A-6, for EOP 2021 : 41,005

2022 AR, p. A-1, for EOP 2022 : 38,285

2023 AR, p. A-1, for EOP 2023 : 30,584

2024 AR , p. A-1, for EOP 2024 : 28,247

 

By the nature of the matter, no hard data, by now, available for 2025.

 

- - - o 0 o - - -

 

Then there is : Insurance Business - Insurance News [May 5^th 2025] : GEICO reports recovery after job cuts

 

Subtitle : After underperforming, the company says it has started showing signs of recovery.

 

- - - o 0 o - - -

 

So It seems obvious that there are gaps, lack of precision in the statements made by Ajit Jain, applying multiples of 10,000 or that he is being quoted here for something he simply never said.

 

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Peace. 

[Milu]

This Berkshire/Buffett transition reminds me a lot of Manchester United once Alex Ferguson finished up in 2013. Ferguson was a once in a lifetime operator who took over a struggling club in 1986 and over the next 3 decades built up the best track record of success in football and premier league history. When he eventually retired in 2013 he handed it over to his self picked successor and a 'reliable pair of hands' who was going to be there for decades and continue the clubs storied culture. Unfortunately as almost always happens succession is an exceedingly difficult thing and no matter what beliefs are held by the visionary leader the real world dynamics of ego, ambition, doubt, shareholder dynamics can come to the surface in even the best businesses. During the 12 years since Ferguson retired Manchester United have cycled through 9 different managers on either a permanent or interim basis, with the longest being about 3 years. They have never won the league again after 13 victories during fergusons 26 year reign.

 

Obviously this is just an analogy and who knows how berkshire will play out, but I would wonder how patient shareholders would be once the spiritual leader buffett is gone, perhaps the share price goes nowhere for a few years, perhaps Abel makes his first big investment and it doesn't work out as planned, knives start coming out angling for change. Buffett won't be there anymore to calm the nerves. Perhaps Abel then gets more gun shy, shareholders are now pushing for dividends to be paid out. Some more employee turnover occurs, AI starts to chip away at some of their big businesses. 

 

While I can't predict what will actually happen I can certainly predict the difficulty that lies ahead for the person who takes over from a once in a generation leader. It will be interesting to watch. I wish him luck.

[petec]

39 minutes ago, Milu said:

This Berkshire/Buffett transition reminds me a lot of Manchester United once Alex Ferguson finished up in 2013. Ferguson was a once in a lifetime operator who took over a struggling club in 1986 and over the next 3 decades built up the best track record of success in football and premier league history. When he eventually retired in 2013 he handed it over to his self picked successor and a 'reliable pair of hands' who was going to be there for decades and continue the clubs storied culture. Unfortunately as almost always happens succession is an exceedingly difficult thing and no matter what beliefs are held by the visionary leader the real world dynamics of ego, ambition, doubt, shareholder dynamics can come to the surface in even the best businesses. During the 12 years since Ferguson retired Manchester United have cycled through 9 different managers on either a permanent or interim basis, with the longest being about 3 years. They have never won the league again after 13 victories during fergusons 26 year reign.

 

Interesting analogy. I disagree with it Ferguson was an inspirational leader and his fingerprints were all over the old Man U. Berkshire by contrast is highly decentralised. Manu U under Ferguson was a high performing machine. I am not convinced that the same is true of Berkshire at this point, although I think it is improving. I agree succession will be difficult and a couple of high profile early mistakes could hole Greg below the waterline. But it is equally possible that Greg actually starts improving Berkshire's performance. That was never going to be the case at Man U. 

 

I saw an interview recently where one of Ferguson's key players - I think it was the hard man and captain Roy Keane - was asked which of the Man U players hated losing the most. He thought and said: Alex. Ferguson's sheer will to win is what drove Man U all those years. I don't think he was ever replaceable. It may be sacrilege to say it, but I think a 95 year old Buffett is replaceable. 

[cubsfan]

Other legendary founder CEO's as Walt Disney, Sam Walton and Steve Jobs did the hard work to build fabulous companies. That was the truly hard work. Their replacements ended up being equally successful. It won't be easy - but perhaps Abel is just what is needed to continue greatness.  

[coffeecaninvestor]

Could it have been Greg's plan all along to move on from either Todd or Ted based on their performance and fit within Berkshire. It just seems like having two people manage the portfolio wouldn't be optimal since I doubt one would have wanted to take a back seat to the other. The top 5 positions in the portfolio has been pretty uneventful since the Apple purchase.. It will be interesting to see Todd put his stamp on the portfolio, and see how he manages things. I think things have been so opaque with T&T that it is impossible to judge or critique any of them. 

[Gamecock-YT]

3 hours ago, Milu said:

This Berkshire/Buffett transition reminds me a lot of Manchester United once Alex Ferguson finished up in 2013. Ferguson was a once in a lifetime operator who took over a struggling club in 1986 and over the next 3 decades built up the best track record of success in football and premier league history. When he eventually retired in 2013 he handed it over to his self picked successor and a 'reliable pair of hands' who was going to be there for decades and continue the clubs storied culture. Unfortunately as almost always happens succession is an exceedingly difficult thing and no matter what beliefs are held by the visionary leader the real world dynamics of ego, ambition, doubt, shareholder dynamics can come to the surface in even the best businesses. During the 12 years since Ferguson retired Manchester United have cycled through 9 different managers on either a permanent or interim basis, with the longest being about 3 years. They have never won the league again after 13 victories during fergusons 26 year reign.

 

Obviously this is just an analogy and who knows how berkshire will play out, but I would wonder how patient shareholders would be once the spiritual leader buffett is gone, perhaps the share price goes nowhere for a few years, perhaps Abel makes his first big investment and it doesn't work out as planned, knives start coming out angling for change. Buffett won't be there anymore to calm the nerves. Perhaps Abel then gets more gun shy, shareholders are now pushing for dividends to be paid out. Some more employee turnover occurs, AI starts to chip away at some of their big businesses. 

 

While I can't predict what will actually happen I can certainly predict the difficulty that lies ahead for the person who takes over from a once in a generation leader. It will be interesting to watch. I wish him luck.

Need the Glazers to come in and lever it up to the nose and start running it for the cash flow, performance be damned.

[Milu]

25 minutes ago, Gamecock-YT said:

Need the Glazers to come in and lever it up to the nose and start running it for the cash flow, performance be damned.

[73 Reds]

35 minutes ago, Gamecock-YT said:

Need the Glazers to come in and lever it up to the nose and start running it for the cash flow, performance be damned.

What Berkshire really needs is to expand its circle of competence.  As individual investors it is easy to focus on a narrow circle of competence because there are usually unlimited investment alternatives.  But when managing other people's money and the investment universe shrinks within your circle of competence, the only effective approach is to broaden the investment horizon in a meaningful way or give people back their money.   I think Greg will have to deal with this issue sooner or later.

[Gamecock-YT]

8 minutes ago, 73 Reds said:

What Berkshire really needs is to expand its circle of competence.  As individual investors it is easy to focus on a narrow circle of competence because there are usually unlimited investment alternatives.  But when managing other people's money and the investment universe shrinks within your circle of competence, the only effective approach is to broaden the investment horizon in a meaningful way or give people back their money.   I think Greg will have to deal with this issue sooner or later.

 

[73 Reds]

1 hour ago, Gamecock-YT said:

 

Sorry, should have prefaced prior post with the words "Kidding aside".  The joke was obvious but your kids did a good job with the illustration. 

[Peregrine]

8 hours ago, John Hjorth said:

 

@Peregrine,

 

Please get your statements presented as facts here on CofB&F about already available data correct by actually walking the walk needed to do so.

 

- - - o 0 o - - -

 

GEICO - Number of employeés :

 

Google AI :

 

 

From Berkshire Annual Reports :

 

2015 AR, p. 115, for EOP 2015 : 34.070

2016 AR, p. 116, for EOP 2016 : 36,085

2017 AR, p. A-1, for EOP 2017 : 38,691

2018 AR, p. A-1, for EOP 2018 : 39,982

2019 AR, p. A-1, for EOP 2019 : 41,483

2020 AR, p. A-6, for EOP 2020 : 42,156 [<- Todd Combs joins GEICO 1^st January this year]

2021 AR, p. A-6, for EOP 2021 : 41,005

2022 AR, p. A-1, for EOP 2022 : 38,285

2023 AR, p. A-1, for EOP 2023 : 30,584

2024 AR , p. A-1, for EOP 2024 : 28,247

 

By the nature of the matter, no hard data, by now, available for 2025.

 

- - - o 0 o - - -

 

Then there is : Insurance Business - Insurance News [May 5^th 2025] : GEICO reports recovery after job cuts

 

Subtitle : After underperforming, the company says it has started showing signs of recovery.

 

- - - o 0 o - - -

 

So It seems obvious that there are gaps, lack of precision in the statements made by Ajit Jain, applying multiples of 10,000 or that he is being quoted here for something he simply never said.

 

- - - o 0 o - - -

 

Peace. 

 

The numbers you posted are end of year so it's hard to get at what was the peak and trough in employee count. But yeah, I took that statement from Ajit at its face.

[Jaygo]

I find it interesting that Todd wet to JPM. As a business history guy I always felt J. Peirpont Morgan and Buffett had a similar cachet as the men who could move markets and were talked about recuing markets and businesses many times.

 

J. PM effectively ended the crash of 1893 and 1907 and WB with his Buy American gave confidence in the system during the GFC. 

 

I think Abel has been around WB long enough to show his chops and I expect brighter days ahead. I do think there is a lot of wood to chop and selling some of the smaller stuff to PE and investing in others is definitely needed. Its entirely likely that WB stayed on a little too long to let the others grow, only time will tell if this has caused succession issues. 

 

 

[gfp]

Here is the text from this morning's FT article

https://www.ft.com/content/97bf4217-902d-4eab-ae83-18884151b0c7

 

 

 

At a JPMorgan Chase Co. event in November, Jamie Dimon and Todd Combs were catching up about the Wall Street bank’s recently announced initiative to invest US$10 billion in companies crucial to U.S. security.

Dimon was looking for an investment manager to run the bank’s Security and Resiliency investment fund. It is new terrain for JPMorgan, or indeed almost any bank, to use its own cash to invest in industrial businesses.

Combs, already a member of JPMorgan’s board of directors and a protégé of Warren Buffett, was intrigued by the job’s patriotic and eclectic profile.

“He said, ‘tell me more’ and that was it,” Dimon told the Financial Times. “I said, ‘If you are remotely interested in this, we’re all in.'”

The talks culminated in the announcement this week that Combs would leave Berkshire Hathaway Inc., where he co-managed the US$1.1 trillion conglomerate’s stock portfolio, to join JPMorgan and work for Dimon. Combs’ future at Berkshire was unclear in the new post-Buffett regime that will take hold next month, but the role at the bank assures a continued place at the top of Wall Street.

“He loves this company, he really enjoys this company, he knows all the senior people here. It’s a natural home,” Dimon said. “I think he finds it unbelievably interesting to use his skills in different ways.”

For Combs, 54, it caps a three-decade career in which he has risen through the insurance and hedge fund industries before landing at Berkshire.

He oversaw billions of dollars for the industrials-to-insurance conglomerate and grew close to several directors on Berkshire’s board, including Buffett’s daughter Susie, said people familiar with the matter. But the top role at the company ultimately went to Greg Abel, another long-serving executive.

JPMorgan rejected the notion that Combs could be a candidate to follow Dimon, 69, in Wall Street’s highest-profile — and slowest-moving — succession race.

“Jamie has said we already have an outstanding group of candidates in place, and Todd has made clear he wants to work on the SRI going forward,” the bank said.

Buffett applauded JPMorgan on the move, saying the bank “as usually is the case, has made a good decision.”

Combs declined to comment.

Combs was born and raised in Florida, graduating from a state university in Tallahassee. He joined the state’s bank regulator before going to work for the car insurer Progressive, where he helped model and set prices for its policies, said a person who worked with him.

He enrolled at Columbia Business School, Buffett’s alma mater, and would go on to work at the hedge fund Copper Arch. After several years, he launched his own hedge fund with the backing of the private equity group Stone Point Capital, which seeded his Greenwich, Connecticut-based firm with US$35 million.

The long-short equity hedge fund, known as Castle Point Capital, invested primarily in financial services groups, owning shares in American Express, the insurer Chubb, Berkshire and JPMorgan, filings show.

Buffett gave Combs permission to join JPMorgan’s board in 2016. He will step down from that role to take his new position, which starts in January.

In the SRI fund, Combs will fill a new role for JPMorgan — using the bank’s own resources to take financial stakes in companies that are deemed vital to U.S. national security. A who’s who of business and political elites including Jeff Bezos, Michael Dell and Condoleezza Rice have also joined an external advisory council for the programme.

The push is part of a broader US$1.5 trillion financing commitment from JPMorgan focusing on themes critical to national security and infrastructure — supply chains and advanced manufacturing, defence and aerospace, energy independence and resilience, and frontier and strategic technologies.

Dimon has said these investments will be “100 per cent commercial” for JPMorgan. The bank’s first deal was to take a stake in an Idaho-based company mining gold and antimony used to harden lead bullets.

Wells Fargo research analyst Mike Mayo said Combs’ appointment to run the US$10 billion fund was a validation of the bank’s ability to attract top talent.

“It’s a significant chunk of change to give to one person,” Mayo said. “I guess that you could say that’s one reason why he’s reporting to Jamie.”

[Munger_Disciple]

1 hour ago, gfp said:

Here is the text from this morning's FT article

https://www.ft.com/content/97bf4217-902d-4eab-ae83-18884151b0c7

 

 

 

At a JPMorgan Chase Co. event in November, Jamie Dimon and Todd Combs were catching up about the Wall Street bank’s recently announced initiative to invest US$10 billion in companies crucial to U.S. security.

Dimon was looking for an investment manager to run the bank’s Security and Resiliency investment fund. It is new terrain for JPMorgan, or indeed almost any bank, to use its own cash to invest in industrial businesses.

Combs, already a member of JPMorgan’s board of directors and a protégé of Warren Buffett, was intrigued by the job’s patriotic and eclectic profile.

“He said, ‘tell me more’ and that was it,” Dimon told the Financial Times. “I said, ‘If you are remotely interested in this, we’re all in.'”

The talks culminated in the announcement this week that Combs would leave Berkshire Hathaway Inc., where he co-managed the US$1.1 trillion conglomerate’s stock portfolio, to join JPMorgan and work for Dimon. Combs’ future at Berkshire was unclear in the new post-Buffett regime that will take hold next month, but the role at the bank assures a continued place at the top of Wall Street.

“He loves this company, he really enjoys this company, he knows all the senior people here. It’s a natural home,” Dimon said. “I think he finds it unbelievably interesting to use his skills in different ways.”

For Combs, 54, it caps a three-decade career in which he has risen through the insurance and hedge fund industries before landing at Berkshire.

He oversaw billions of dollars for the industrials-to-insurance conglomerate and grew close to several directors on Berkshire’s board, including Buffett’s daughter Susie, said people familiar with the matter. But the top role at the company ultimately went to Greg Abel, another long-serving executive.

JPMorgan rejected the notion that Combs could be a candidate to follow Dimon, 69, in Wall Street’s highest-profile — and slowest-moving — succession race.

“Jamie has said we already have an outstanding group of candidates in place, and Todd has made clear he wants to work on the SRI going forward,” the bank said.

Buffett applauded JPMorgan on the move, saying the bank “as usually is the case, has made a good decision.”

Combs declined to comment.

Combs was born and raised in Florida, graduating from a state university in Tallahassee. He joined the state’s bank regulator before going to work for the car insurer Progressive, where he helped model and set prices for its policies, said a person who worked with him.

He enrolled at Columbia Business School, Buffett’s alma mater, and would go on to work at the hedge fund Copper Arch. After several years, he launched his own hedge fund with the backing of the private equity group Stone Point Capital, which seeded his Greenwich, Connecticut-based firm with US$35 million.

The long-short equity hedge fund, known as Castle Point Capital, invested primarily in financial services groups, owning shares in American Express, the insurer Chubb, Berkshire and JPMorgan, filings show.

Buffett gave Combs permission to join JPMorgan’s board in 2016. He will step down from that role to take his new position, which starts in January.

In the SRI fund, Combs will fill a new role for JPMorgan — using the bank’s own resources to take financial stakes in companies that are deemed vital to U.S. national security. A who’s who of business and political elites including Jeff Bezos, Michael Dell and Condoleezza Rice have also joined an external advisory council for the programme.

The push is part of a broader US$1.5 trillion financing commitment from JPMorgan focusing on themes critical to national security and infrastructure — supply chains and advanced manufacturing, defence and aerospace, energy independence and resilience, and frontier and strategic technologies.

Dimon has said these investments will be “100 per cent commercial” for JPMorgan. The bank’s first deal was to take a stake in an Idaho-based company mining gold and antimony used to harden lead bullets.

Wells Fargo research analyst Mike Mayo said Combs’ appointment to run the US$10 billion fund was a validation of the bank’s ability to attract top talent.

“It’s a significant chunk of change to give to one person,” Mayo said. “I guess that you could say that’s one reason why he’s reporting to Jamie.”

 

I recall reading that Warren was the one who recommended Combs to Dimon for JPM board seat in 2016, so this part seems weird: "Buffett gave Combs permission to join JPMorgan’s board in 2016."

 

I found this part of the article which implies that Combs is leaving because he didn't get the Berkshire CEO job preposterous to say the least: He oversaw billions of dollars for the industrials-to-insurance conglomerate and grew close to several directors on Berkshire’s board, including Buffett’s daughter Susie, said people familiar with the matter. But the top role at the company ultimately went to Greg Abel, another long-serving executive. (Meaning Combs kissed a lot of a$$ but didn't get the CEO job.)

 

All in all, not a very well researched article IMO. 

Edited December 10, 2025 by Munger_Disciple

[wabuffo]

I thought this part was interesting.   34% over 5 years is 6% per year compounded.  That pales in comparison to the public record of Ted Weschler at Peninsula before he joined BRK.   

 

While focusing on financials and only being down 5.7% in 2008 is impressive, 2009 would've likely have been a barnburner return as all financials rallied hard.  I mean you could've thrown darts at financials in Feb 2009, and you would've been up 80% or more.   That means his fund was likely showing a negative return over its first 4 years.   

 

Edited December 10, 2025 by wabuffo

[ValueMaven]

@wabuffo his biggest shorts were AIG and Fannie and Freddie.  Source is a podcast he mentioned this.  Buffett sold out of Fannie in the early 2000s ... so some loose connection as well.

[73 Reds]

7 minutes ago, wabuffo said:

I thought this part was interesting.   34% over 5 years is 6% per year compounded.  That pales in comparison to the public record of Ted Weschler at Peninsula before he joined BRK.   

 

While focusing on financials and only being down 5.7% in 2008 is impressive, 2009 would've likely have been a barnburner return as all financials rallied hard.  I mean you could've thrown darts at financials in Feb 2009, and you would've been up 80% or more.   That means his fund was likely showing a negative return over its first 4 years.   

 

Yet Buffett hired him anyway - out of an entire World full of money managers.  Hmm.  My guess is there is a lot we don't know and probably never will.

[rogermunibond]

Wasn't most of Ted's outperformance from his intimate knowledge of WR Grace assets in their bankruptcy?

[wabuffo]

Wasn't most of Ted's outperformance from his intimate knowledge of WR Grace assets in their bankruptcy?

 

Also - big investment in DDS, IIRC.  Also DaVita and DirecTV.  Ran very concentrated, too.

Bill

[Munger_Disciple]

34 minutes ago, wabuffo said:

I thought this part was interesting.   34% over 5 years is 6% per year compounded.  That pales in comparison to the public record of Ted Weschler at Peninsula before he joined BRK.   

 

While focusing on financials and only being down 5.7% in 2008 is impressive, 2009 would've likely have been a barnburner return as all financials rallied hard.  I mean you could've thrown darts at financials in Feb 2009, and you would've been up 80% or more.   That means his fund was likely showing a negative return over its first 4 years.   

 

 

[Munger_Disciple]

2 minutes ago, wabuffo said:

Wasn't most of Ted's outperformance from his intimate knowledge of WR Grace assets in their bankruptcy?

 

Also - big investment in DDS, IIRC.  Also DaVita and DirecTV.  Ran very concentrated, too.

Bill

 

And Ted still does (SIRI, DVA for example), and his holding period is very very long unlike Combs who seems to dart in & out pretty frequently. 

 

Regardless of whether SIRI eventually works for Ted or not, I like his style of concentrated bets.

[gfp]

I have always attributed the V and MA holdings to Todd Combs and he did a great job of not interrupting those positions with action.  I'll bet Todd has a better track record for BRK than most here give him credit for.  Maybe we will find out some day when he writes a book.

[rogermunibond]

Davita is a direct result of his WR Grace knowledge.  Grace used to have a renal dialysis business which they sold to Fresenius in 1996.

Edited December 10, 2025 by rogermunibond

[Munger_Disciple]

Ted invested in AAPL as well prior to Warren, and was partly responsible for Warren's big successful bet on the company. Greg will most likely make such calls in the future perhaps in consultation with Ted. I am sure Ajit will be heading any M&A deals in insurance in consultation with Greg. 

We are in good hands with Greg, Ajit & Ted as far as public security investments and/or acquisitions are concerned. 

Edited December 10, 2025 by Munger_Disciple