Buffett/Berkshire - general news

[gfp]

4 minutes ago, LC said:

Can we think of a single Berkshire company that is the definitive #1 leader in the field?

 

NetJets

Clayton Homes

IMC

BNSF is debatable depending on the metric

Precision Castparts is probably dominant in their actual field, despite criticisms of their performance.

 

Ajit's entire operation - call it National Indemnity

Edited December 13, 2025 by gfp

[LC]

Fair enough! Thanks @gfp

 

Curious what you think of my main point - i.e. transition from a passive investor with decentralized operations to a more operator-first company, where passive investing might take a backseat? 

 

[Munger_Disciple]

31 minutes ago, gfp said:

 

NetJets

Clayton Homes

IMC

BNSF is debatable depending on the metric

Precision Castparts is probably dominant in their actual field, despite criticisms of their performance.

 

Ajit's entire operation - call it National Indemnity

 

+ Flight Safety, See's, Brooks, TTI, NFM, Home Services, BH Automotive etc. Marmon Group is pretty decent as well. 

Edited December 13, 2025 by Munger_Disciple

[schin]

5 minutes ago, Munger_Disciple said:

 

+ Flight Safety, See's, Brooks, TTI, NFM, Home Services, BH Automotive etc. Marmon Group is pretty decent as well. 

 

@gfp @Munger_Disciple - I would say those are not companies with large TAMs. They're best in class, but it's a big store in a small town. For example, See's could slowly expand like how Bucee's and InNOut is expanding to the East Coast. Slowly and methodically.  See's never scaled to be a Nestle, Hershey's, Mars, etc. 

 

Precision CastParts, Iscar are good companies, but they are not like ASML. BSNF and Geico have potential to be dominant, but some how underinvested relative to UNP and Progressive, respectively.

 

National Indemnity -- maybe, if you want to be a reinsurance.. but, what happens after Ajit.... I'll like to see the contingency plan there. GEICO and insurance should have been in Warren's wheelhouse. He had an advantage when he was only selling to army and government employees, but the data analytics of Progressive evened the playing field.

 

Also, Diary Queen... it's sub scale... I mean... crap... who here goes to a Diary Queen. Has anyone visited NFM? It cannot compete against Wayfair and all those Furniture South in NC. 

[xboojum]

43 minutes ago, Munger_Disciple said:

 

+ Flight Safety, See's, Brooks, TTI, NFM, Home Services, BH Automotive etc. Marmon Group is pretty decent as well. 

 

Brooks is a wonderful company that makes a great product (I wear Ghosts when I run) but absolutely aren't the definitive leaders in the category of even "running shoes", let alone "athletic shoes": https://therunningchannel.com/what-are-the-most-popular-running-shoes-usa/. BH Automotive is I believe about a third the size of Lithia. I'm not sure what field you could even say Marmon Group leads in (versus Kerlite or Union Tank Car or something).

 

(Flight Safety is a great answer. I think Clayton Homes and Shaw are both the largest in their field, at least if you restrict comparison to carpet versus overall flooring. Forest River, depending on what segment you look at, probably fits the bill too.)

[Ballinvarosig Investors]

On 12/8/2025 at 6:55 PM, backtothebeach said:

"Before joining and later leading GEICO, Todd Combs spent several years working directly in the property‑and‑casualty insurance industry, including as a pricing analyst at Progressive Insurance and as an insurance analyst covering insurers on Wall Street."

 

I don't think he was such a bad fit, and ultimately he did the dirty work for Buffett. This year I listened to all past annual meetings, and Buffett was asked at least in two years, maybe three, about telematics and the competition from Progressive, and he waved it off saying he was happy with the way they were evaluating risk at Geico. Later, when they realized they had a problem, he let Ajit answer questions about Geico and praised Todd.

 

Why is Combs disliked here on Cobf? Probably because in all these years there has not been any outstanding, needle moving investment by Todd or Ted (except the first AAPL purchases) that I can remember, they haven't beaten the S+P, and we secretly think we could have done it better, lol.

The unfortunate reality of the modern insurance industry is that it's ferociously difficult, and when Combs took over Geico six years ago, he inherited an organization that was bloated, uncompetitive, and not innovating. 

 

It's unfortunate that a lot of American workers at Geico lost their jobs, but you can't argue with the returns to shareholders. Record profits last year, and likely another record for this year.

[Munger_Disciple]

1 hour ago, xboojum said:

 

Brooks is a wonderful company that makes a great product (I wear Ghosts when I run) but absolutely aren't the definitive leaders in the category of even "running shoes", let alone "athletic shoes": https://therunningchannel.com/what-are-the-most-popular-running-shoes-usa/. BH Automotive is I believe about a third the size of Lithia. I'm not sure what field you could even say Marmon Group leads in (versus Kerlite or Union Tank Car or something).

 

(Flight Safety is a great answer. I think Clayton Homes and Shaw are both the largest in their field, at least if you restrict comparison to carpet versus overall flooring. Forest River, depending on what segment you look at, probably fits the bill too.)

 

They are all good/very good businesses even if they aren't #1 in their respective industries in terms of sales volume. I have a friend who owns  a small electronics component distribution business and he told me TTI is a great business. I am very happy as a shareholder that BRK owns them.  

 

BTW the energy business is not bad either except for Pacificorp huge wild fire related troubles in the Peoples Republics of California & Oregon.

Edited December 13, 2025 by Munger_Disciple

[villainx]

1 hour ago, Munger_Disciple said:

BTW the energy business is not bad either except for Pacificorp huge wild fire related troubles in the Peoples Republics of California & Oregon.

 

I don't know enough about the energy business aside from it seems like a great idea.  But your post is just delightful, it's like saying this is not that bad except for the thing that makes it really bad.  

 

Not delightful for the folks suffering the consequences, just in the sentence.

 

[Munger_Disciple]

26 minutes ago, villainx said:

 

I don't know enough about the energy business aside from it seems like a great idea.  But your post is just delightful, it's like saying this is not that bad except for the thing that makes it really bad.  

 

Not delightful for the folks suffering the consequences, just in the sentence.

 

 

Worst case they will put Pacificorp into bankruptcy (if the damage awards exceed equity) & move on with the other assets. That's what I mean by energy business is not bad elsewhere. Buffett repeatedly said they wouldn't throw good money after bad & I trust Greg & Warren.  

[Spekulatius]

On 12/12/2025 at 9:08 AM, xo 1 said:

Historically, I don't think there is strong reason to believe that the same factors to sell the laggards didn't exist before.  For example, in 1989 WEB wrote about the "The Sainted Seven Plus One"—Borsheim's, Buffalo News, Fechheimer Bros, Kirby, Nebraska Furniture Mart, Scott Fetzer, See's Candies, and World Book.

Obviously Borsheim's, NFM and See's are still performing well, but part of BRK's model has always been to let the laggards die in place (water the flowers and starve the weeds).  There isn't much benefit to weeding - nature will take its course.  Even the flowers from the Sainted Seven are tiny so aren't material contributors to BRK's financial performance in 2025. 

Well, if you can sell off your weeds before they die of natural causes, then I think’ it’s a win.

 

I think the more likely course if action with Berkshire is that some business will be spun off rather than sold down. That keeps the promise of permanent homes of the business intact but adds more flexibility.

[ValueMaven]

I think Greg at somepoint will appoint Ted as the head of the equity portfolio ... Greg seems very pragmatic, and his skill-set is not stock-picking (he is an operator).  Also, maybe the New Mountain Asset Mgmt arm of Gen Re will take over the equity portfolio ??  Could be an interesting approach.

[Hektor]

On 12/12/2025 at 9:38 AM, Jaygo said:

I think the hands off approach was too relaxed and not the right style as the company grew bigger and especially now that warren is leaving. 

I think Berkshire will reign in “Decentralization almost to the point of abdication” to just decentralization, somewhat similar to FFH.

[MarioP]

The  problem with the sub is also to hire top young talent. If you are a whiz kid in insurance would you prefer to work for Progressive and hope to be CEO one day or work in a conglomerat where you have very little chance for the top job? And I talk about one of the glamour subs. Hirering top talent in Benjamin Moore or Pampered it’s impossible. So when that’ s why lots of subs have problem when the founder retire

[73 Reds]

12 hours ago, ValueMaven said:

I think Greg at somepoint will appoint Ted as the head of the equity portfolio ... Greg seems very pragmatic, and his skill-set is not stock-picking (he is an operator).  Also, maybe the New Mountain Asset Mgmt arm of Gen Re will take over the equity portfolio ??  Could be an interesting approach.

Not sure why Berkshire would not/should not seek the best outside talent?  There should certainly be more than one individual managing an investment portfolio the size of Berkshire's.  In fact, there should be a consortium of managers who each specialize in different areas.    

[LC]

1 hour ago, 73 Reds said:

There should certainly be more than one individual managing an investment portfolio the size of Berkshire's.  In fact, there should be a consortium of managers who each specialize in different areas.    

 

Hear that? It's Charlie Munger turning over in his grave. 

[73 Reds]

58 minutes ago, LC said:

 

Hear that? It's Charlie Munger turning over in his grave. 

A lot of good one can do from the grave.  Keep trying.

[John Hjorth]

3 hours ago, 73 Reds said:

Not sure why Berkshire would not/should not seek the best outside talent?  There should certainly be more than one individual managing an investment portfolio the size of Berkshire's.  In fact, there should be a consortium of  managers who each specialize in different areas.    

 

1 hour ago, LC said:

Hear that? It's Charlie Munger turning over in his grave. 

 

52 minutes ago, 73 Reds said:

A lot of good one can do from the grave.  Keep trying.

 

Well, I think, at least as long as Warren Buffett is still around as chairman and major shareholder, but out of the limelight, such thing likely isen't going to happen.

 

We'll have to see how it all plays out, over some time, going forward.

 

Personally, I appreciate very much all the exchanges, thoughts, comments and views shared recently on the matter here in this this topic. It's great brain food, to get dragged out of own [more ot less frozen?] personal views and eternal, circular thoughts on the matter!

Edited December 14, 2025 by John Hjorth

[73 Reds]

1 minute ago, John Hjorth said:

 

 

 

Well, I think, at least as long as Warren Buffett is still around as chairman and major shareholder, but out of the limelight, such thing likely isen't going to happen.

 

We'll have to see how it all plays out, over some time, going forward.

 

Personally, I appreciate very much all the exchanges, thoughts, comments and views shared recently on the matter here in this this topic. It's great brain food, to get dragged out of own [more ot less frozen?] personal views and eternal, circular thoughts on the matter!

John, arguably Buffett is the greatest stock picker of all time or otherwise certainly one of them.  If he demonstrated anything over the past 2 or 3 decades is that even he has been unable (with a few notable exceptions,  i.e., AAPL and the Japanese trading houses) to generate much in the way of outperformance picking stocks and he acknowledges that this is due to size.  Why anyone would have an issue with Berkshire retaining more specialized talent in this area rather than leaving the job to a single individual whose record at Berskhire is not even known to us is beyond me.  Even if Ted has done a spectacular job managing his investment portfolio at Berkshire, managing a portfolio many times that much is a much more difficult endeavor - just ask Buffett.  

[John Hjorth]

47 minutes ago, 73 Reds said:

John, arguably Buffett is the greatest stock picker of all time or otherwise certainly one of them.  If he demonstrated anything over the past 2 or 3 decades is that even he has been unable (with a few notable exceptions,  i.e., AAPL and the Japanese trading houses) to generate much in the way of outperformance picking stocks and he acknowledges that this is due to size.  Why anyone would have an issue with Berkshire retaining more specialized talent in this area rather than leaving the job to a single individual whose record at Berskhire is not even known to us is beyond me.  Even if Ted has done a spectacular job managing his investment portfolio at Berkshire, managing a portfolio many times that much is a much more difficult endeavor - just ask Buffett.  

 

@73 Reds,

 

You do remember Warren Buffetts 1 million dolars bet against - I think - it was a basket five funds of funds?. - And all his talk and talks about 'helpers'?

 

All while we live with as shareholders with several - at least five! - 'black boxes'? [based on 'We report as as if our postions were reversed', confusingly later blended with - to an increasing degree 'We report what you need to know to make and informed investment decision' [<- wt*?], the five black boxes :

1. The overall portfolio performance of the  listed stock investments, over time
2. The portfolio performance for the listed Ted porfolio [, and related compensation for Ted], over time,
3. The portfolio performance of the listed Todd portfolio, [and related compensation for Todd], over time
4. The MSR 'black box' for the largest components of manufacturing etc. [old economy] companies [Berkshire, NICO subs],
5. Latest 'Insurance' merged, lumped together with MSR companies.

- - - o 0 o - - -

 

The man is one huge self-contradiction over time!

 

- - - o 0 o - - -

 

We can all sell, if we want to, based on what we see and experience.

[73 Reds]

3 hours ago, John Hjorth said:

 

@73 Reds,

 

You do remember Warren Buffetts 1 million dolars bet against - I think - it was a basket five funds of funds?. - And all his talk and talks about 'helpers'?

 

All while we live with as shareholders with several - at least five! - 'black boxes'? [based on 'We report as as if our postions were reversed', confusingly later blended with - to an increasing degree 'We report what you need to know to make and informed investment decision' [<- wt*?], the five black boxes :

1. The overall portfolio performance of the  listed stock investments, over time
2. The portfolio performance for the listed Ted porfolio [, and related compensation for Ted], over time,
3. The portfolio performance of the listed Todd portfolio, [and related compensation for Todd], over time
4. The MSR 'black box' for the largest components of manufacturing etc. [old economy] companies [Berkshire, NICO subs],
5. Latest 'Insurance' merged, lumped together with MSR companies.

- - - o 0 o - - -

 

The man is one huge self-contradiction over time!

 

- - - o 0 o - - -

 

We can all sell, if we want to, based on what we see and experience.

Of course I remember his bet.  But outperforming diversified mutual funds whose benchmark is often the S&P 500 or the like is really not a difficult feat.  He knew exactly what he was doing.   Mutual fund managers are beholden to a whole set of parameters that portfolio managers at Berkshire could care less about.  Mutual funds and their managers are looking for growth and fees.  Buffett knew that over time he could easily exploit this and he did.    

[Buckeye]

How about Greg decides how much cash he’d like to have on hand, let Ted (or someone like Ted) manage another 100B or so, plus help out with acquisitions and then put everything else in an S&P fund?  

[73 Reds]

3 minutes ago, Buckeye said:

How about Greg decides how much cash he’d like to have on hand, let Ted (or someone like Ted) manage another 100B or so, plus help out with acquisitions and then put everything else in an S&P fund?  

The way to profit from investing in an S&P 500 fund is to DCA consistently over time.  Why should great money managers want to invest large sums into SPY?  Any 4th grader can outperform SPY year in and year out if the goal is simply to win a bet and not generate the highest returns possible.  It is just such a poor measuring stick.

[Buckeye]

Ok so you drip it in. I’m not sure I’m exactly following you on the other stuff.  Great (or smart) money managers would invest in the S&P because it’s simple, it can suck up unlimited amounts of capital and something like 85-92ish percent of money managers underperform the S&P.  In fact it’s so simple, you wouldn’t even need a great money manager. And that’s my point. Maybe the ham sandwich manages the excess funds and led Greg and Ted focus on the operations and other investments.
 

You seem to be implying that outperforming the S&P with large amounts of capital is easy?  What’s your measuring stick? 
 

Edited December 14, 2025 by Buckeye

[73 Reds]

13 hours ago, Buckeye said:

Ok so you drip it in. I’m not sure I’m exactly following you on the other stuff.  Great (or smart) money managers would invest in the S&P because it’s simple, it can suck up unlimited amounts of capital and something like 85-92ish percent of money managers underperform the S&P.  In fact it’s so simple, you wouldn’t even need a great money manager. And that’s my point. Maybe the ham sandwich manages the excess funds and led Greg and Ted focus on the operations and other investments.
 

You seem to be implying that outperforming the S&P with large amounts of capital is easy?  What’s your measuring stick? 
 

Great money managers have, or should have better ideas than the S&P 500 at all times.  Everyone has a different measuring stick.  Mine is private businesses which generate returns consistently higher than SPY.  

[CassiusKing1]

Berkshire investing in the SP500 gives even more reason to own the index and not the stock.