Buffett/Berkshire - general news

[focused1]

Just for fun… My list of guesses are:

 

VZ, CMCSA, UBER, MRK, XOM, NEM

Edited May 16, 2025 by focused1

[yesman182]

What about Hess? He obviously likes Chevron and also loves these arbitrage bets. The discount was over 10% a few months ago and it could close in less than 6 months. 

[focused1]

1 hour ago, yesman182 said:

What about Hess? He obviously likes Chevron and also loves these arbitrage bets. The discount was over 10% a few months ago and it could close in less than 6 months. 

that’s a good thought too. 
 

After thinking about it more I think most likely MRK or HES

[sleepydragon]

11 hours ago, mistakenpoint said:

In the latest 10Q, the increase in cost basis of the consumer products section can be explained by the increase in stake of Constellation Brands. So the confidential company should be in the Commercial, industrial and other category. Will run some screen to make a guess.

 

 

I asked ChatGPT to guess. It says it could be MMM, HON, GE, EMR, or DHR

 

[Mephistopheles]

Buffett won’t be on stage next year.

 

Am a bit surprised. Figured he’d want to be up there as it draws in the crowds. I wonder by how much attendance will fall?

https://omaha.com/news/local/business/article_b221da8d-d5e3-48c0-9298-9633490c5d07.html

 

Edited May 18, 2025 by Mephistopheles

[gfp]

Honestly it will be such a more substantiative annual meeting if it's only Greg or Greg and Ajit up there.  Maybe someone will actually ask about the businesses and their prospects.  The last few Berkshire meetings have been next to useless for investors in Berkshire.  People go for the family reunion aspect.

 

"this is little Jenny, 9 years old, with a question for Mr. Abel - Mr. Abel, what one class in my elementary school should I study hard in if I want to run a regulated utility one day?  Thank you Mr. Abel you are an inspiration to my family."

[John Hjorth]

8 minutes ago, gfp said:

Honestly it will be such a more substantiative annual meeting if it's only Greg or Greg and Ajit up there.  Maybe someone will actually ask about the businesses and their prospects.  The last few Berkshire meetings have been next to useless for investors in Berkshire.  People go for the family reunion aspect.

 

"this is little Jenny, 9 years old, with a question for Mr. Abel - Mr. Abel, what one class in my elementary school should I study hard in if I want to run a regulated utility one day?  Thank you Mr. Abel you are an inspiration to my family."

 

-Great entertainment here on CofB&F on a Sunday!  - On a more serious note, there is certainly an element of truth to what you posted above.

[Xerxes]

It is great that he won’t be on stage. 
 

we don’t want a Daily Journal like AGM where all question goes to the most senior guy. 
 

secondly, it is all about accountability 

[John Hjorth]

2 minutes ago, Xerxes said:

It is great that he won’t be on stage. 
 

we don’t want a Daily Journal like AGM where all question goes to the most senior guy. 
 

secondly, it is all about accountability 

 

There is an other aspect of the Berkshire Hathaway AGM session lay-out : the MSMs - partly - control over the questions asked and answered. Does Becky Quick even own any BRK shares

 

-Perhaps Greg Abel and Ajit Jain may chose a totally different setup going forward for AGMs?

[gfp]

12 minutes ago, John Hjorth said:

 

There is an other aspect of the Berkshire Hathaway AGM session lay-out : the MSMs - partly - control over the questions asked and answered. Does Becky Quick even own any BRK shares

 

-Perhaps Greg Abel and Ajit Jain may chose a totally different setup going forward for AGMs?

 

The questions that are curated by and asked by Becky Quick are the only useful aspects of the last few meetings.  I would rather she ask 100% of the questions or there be 2 or 3 curated journalist question sections versus the current audience microphone setup that has completely destroyed the AGM.

[gfp]

I would argue “those types of meetings” are not a dime a dozen and actually the rare exception. Berkshire used to have one of them. I can think of maybe 4 other companies that host substantiative annual meetings with material discussion of the actual business. The vast majority are just perfunctory formalities that aren’t attended by shareholders. 
 

AGMs have a purpose and filling 50% of the Q&A airtime of what turned out to be the last opportunity to ask Warren a question with complete waste of time nonsense was a shame. 
 

shilling for an investment in Mongolia?  Jesus 

[Spekulatius]

On 5/7/2025 at 3:29 PM, gfp said:

 

 

The best I can make of it, Blake studied the 70's and misunderstood some kind of cause/effect relationship between oil prices and inflation where he thinks that when people see inflation getting bad this causes them to "invest in oil" and that pushes up the price of oil.  It's a bizarre cause-effect dynamic, but I could see how someone looking at correlation and ignoring a bunch of exogenous factors that caused oil prices to be high at that time would somehow confuse a correlation with causation.  The direction of the causation is bonkers - people don't invest in oil - they buy only the oil they need to consume and not a drop more.

 

Also, when he says he owns Oil I assume he owns stock in companies that make their money selling oil.  Which is of course a different thing all-together.

We had high inflation in the 70’s, mostly because oil was extremely important for the economy (much more so than it is now) and the price went up ~10x during the decade.

 

It is quite possible and indeed quite likely imo, that if we get another inflation spell, oil will trail inflation and oil producers may see margin compression because their costs rise faster than product prices. There is not guarantee that oil or energy is going to be a good inflation hedge going forward.

[Xerxes]

I agree with Becky asking/curating most of the question post Covid was a huge positive.
 

However in this year AGM they gave more air time to on-site people I feel than Becky, perhaps as instructed by Buffett himself knowing that it would be his last one. 

[gfp]

1 minute ago, Xerxes said:

I agree with Becky asking/curating most of the question post Covid was a huge positive.
 

However in this year AGM they gave more air time to on-site people I feel than Becky, perhaps as instructed by Buffett himself knowing that it would be his last one. 

they alternate so in theory it should be roughly equal but it isn’t if the audience member drones on in a self indulgent rambling way and Becky asks a succinct well edited question that incorporates real time adjustments to adapt to topics already discussed / answered. 
 

was there a single audience member question that anyone remembers being good?

[Xerxes]

1 minute ago, gfp said:

they alternate so in theory it should be roughly equal but it isn’t if the audience member drones on in a self indulgent rambling way and Becky asks a succinct well edited question that incorporates real time adjustments to adapt to topics already discussed / answered. 
 

was there a single audience member question that anyone remembers being good?

actually yes there was one. 
for me anyways. 
 

the very first question somehow allowed Buffett and Greg expand and share their thought about their Japanese investment 

[Munger_Disciple]

9 minutes ago, gfp said:

they alternate so in theory it should be roughly equal but it isn’t if the audience member drones on in a self indulgent rambling way and Becky asks a succinct well edited question that incorporates real time adjustments to adapt to topics already discussed / answered. 
 

was there a single audience member question that anyone remembers being good?

 

None. This last AGM was the most useless in terms of anything I learned about BRK business. Becky's questions were ok, not great (but 1000 times better than audience questions); that may not be her fault perhaps. I can recall just one question that was excellent from her about Greg's capital allocation philosophy and he kind of made a mess out of it. Generally her insurance questions were good as well. 

Edited May 18, 2025 by Munger_Disciple

[backtothebeach]

1 hour ago, Munger_Disciple said:

I can recall just one question that was excellent from her about Greg's capital allocation philosophy and he kind of made a mess out of it. Generally her insurance questions were good as well. 

Yeah, I found his answer messy and unconvincing as well. Does he have any original thoughts? Maybe he is just not eloquent and was nervous, and did not want to go too far off script with the big guy on the stage next to him.
 

I think it’s quite a risk to returns if he feels the obligation to wait for THE fat pitch, that never quite materializes. It may take him five or 10 years to realize that he is not Warren Buffett, and things can be done differently.

[John Hjorth]

24 minutes ago, backtothebeach said:

Yeah, I found his answer messy and unconvincing as well. Does he have any original thoughts? Maybe he is just not eloquent and was nervous, and did not want to go too far off script with the big guy on the stage next to him.
 

I think it’s quite a risk to returns if he feels the obligation to wait for THE fat pitch, that never quite materializes. It may take him five or 10 years to realize that he is not Warren Buffett, and things can be done differently.

 

Some basic trust in Mr. Buffetts personal assessments carried out during a long row of years with regard to his nearest managerial employeés, picked consciously and meticously, is of importance here. I mean he is likely personally in any aspect hit harder than any of us, if things does not work out satisfactory. You could blame him, in such situation, in such situation, he has nobody to blame but himself.

 

We can discuss this from now on to Greg Abel gets fired, passes away or chose to retire, and the whole thing starts all over again. The solution to this is - by locic - for you to set up your own holding company, and start running it.

[John Hjorth]

1 hour ago, John Hjorth said:

Some basic trust in Mr. Buffetts personal assessments carried out during a long row of years with regard to his nearest managerial employeés, picked consciously and meticously, is of importance here. I mean he is likely personally in any aspect hit harder than any of us, if things does not work out satisfactory. You could blame him, in such situation, in such situation, he has nobody to blame but himself.

 

We can discuss this from now on to Greg Abel gets fired, passes away or chose to retire, and the whole thing starts all over again. The solution to this is - by locic - for you to set up your own holding company, and start running it.

 

The 'silent communication', in reality by now imposed on Berkshire Hathaway shareholders by Mr. Buffett for many years, with Berkshire shareholders in reality and basically getting nothing but 10-Q and 10-K information has to change to something else, and better. Such improvements do not suck up a lot of ressources. It's primarily a matter of will.

Edited May 18, 2025 by John Hjorth

[Xerxes]

I think this was a good listen 

recommend. 

 

https://podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-compound-and-friends/id1456467014?i=1000708707427

 

 

[backtothebeach]

2 hours ago, John Hjorth said:

Some basic trust in Mr. Buffetts personal assessments carried out during a long row of years with regard to his nearest managerial employeés, picked consciously and meticously, is of importance here.

 

True that! And for now I would default to trusting Warren and Charlie's judgement here.

 

The cash pile is getting larger and larger though (30B+ per year from operations), so it won't be getting any easier.

[Parsad]

8 hours ago, gfp said:

"this is little Jenny, 9 years old, with a question for Mr. Abel - Mr. Abel, what one class in my elementary school should I study hard in if I want to run a regulated utility one day?  Thank you Mr. Abel you are an inspiration to my family."

LOL!  Life's too short to become an old crank!  Cheers!

[gfp]

On 5/15/2025 at 5:23 PM, Malmqky said:

 

Looking forward to hearing about what you find!

 

Seems like the confidential security is hidden inside Harney Investment Trust.  Expand Energy (the old Chesapeake) shows up but is probably too small to be required to be included on the 13F.  Millrose properties was spun out of Lennar and apparently didn't show up on the 13F - not sure what that means but I suppose they could be buying or selling it.

 

The most interesting thing in the filing was the additional purchases of Sogo Shosha ->

 

Nat Ind Q1 25 20087.2025.P.Q1.P.O.1.4988327.pdf

[wabuffo]

Hey gfp - where does one access these filings?

Thanks,

Bill

[rogermunibond]

That looks like an NAIC filing