Buffett/Berkshire - general news

[jbwent63]

I think you may be right. While we all know WEB won't be with us forever, reading what appears to be a significant decline in his health, while not surprising, is somewhat sobering. I wonder if we will see him on stage in Omaha. It might be too much for him (which makes Charlie doing it every year until his death at 99 even more amazing). Long live WEB!

[MCR]

Definitely sobering. I'm reminded of his closing words at the end of last year's shareholders meeting:

"Thank you very, very much for coming. And I not only hope that you come next year but I hope I come next year."

 

It definitely struck me at the time as a different tone, which was understandable in the wake of Charlie's passing. Long live WEB, indeed.

[DooDiligence]

21 hours ago, gfp said:

Fortune profile of Greg Abel. I’m stuck in Mexico missing the glorious snow in New Orleans boo hoo

 

https://archive.ph/QcRW2

 

No snow in Bangkok either 

[Libs]

23 hours ago, gfp said:

Fortune profile of Greg Abel. I’m stuck in Mexico missing the glorious snow in New Orleans boo hoo

 

https://archive.ph/QcRW2

Thanks GFP. After reading this I'm more comfortable with Abel running things.

[longlake95]

1 minute ago, Libs said:

Thanks GFP. After reading this I'm more comfortable with Abel running things.

one of my big worries for sometime has been the "de-centralized" approach, while I understand leaving good managers alone to do their jobs, but I think it's easy for things to "slip" a bit over time. We, as humans, seem pre-programed for the ABC's of business decay (as Warren puts it). So, to be clear, de-central probably won't change in a big way, but I like Greg's "more active touch" with the subs. I think Greg's hardest job is keeping many of those long-time managers motivated to keep working without pissing on their grass.

[Gregmal]

Apple so overvalued...must move...to...cash.

 

Edited January 30, 2025 by Gregmal

[Spooky]

On 1/30/2025 at 11:46 PM, Gregmal said:

Apple so overvalued...must move...to...cash.

 

Munger did say selling it was probably a mistake.

[gfp]

Last week I noticed this Berkshire Hathaway Finance shelf registration renewal used Baker McKenzie and didn't think much of it but thought it was maybe the first time I had seen a big firm other than MTO.  Seems like Barrons is picking up on the change -

 

https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1067983/000119312525018070/0001193125-25-018070-index.htm

 

https://www.barrons.com/articles/berkshire-hathaway-baker-mckenzie-munger-2bd55504

 

Quote

During 2024, Baker McKenzie added a 17-member corporate law team from Munger, Tolles & Olson in what the firm called a move to expand its deals team. One of the firm’s lawyers, Leif King, called the group “one of the truly elite transactional groups in California” in a Bloomberg Law interview at the time.

 

The move appears to be paying off given Baker McKenzie’s role in the Berkshire bond deals. One of those lawyers, Judith Kitano, is listed on the new Berkshire prospectus.

 

Edited February 3, 2025 by gfp

[Blake Hampton]

Berkhsire's new 13F will be interesting to say the least

[gfp]

2 minutes ago, Blake Hampton said:

Berkhsire's new 13F will be interesting to say the least

 

Because you are curious how much BAC he sold?  Or you think there will be other major changes?  Seems like this next one will be awfully boring and predictable but you never know.  Do we get the 10Q before the 13F?  10Q should reveal the moves on the top few positions.

[Blake Hampton]

Not too boring or predictable if you ask me...

 

[hasilp89]

15 minutes ago, Blake Hampton said:

Not too boring or predictable if you ask me...

 

wasn't the apple sale pretty much announced at the AGM and then followed up on. Everything else aside from BAC is peanuts. Net change aside from Apple and BAC is meaningless.

Edited February 3, 2025 by hasilp89

[Munger_Disciple]

I predict BAC was sold completely (90% probability), and there is a 50% chance Buffett sold all the remaining Apple shares in Q4. 

[gfp]

12 minutes ago, Munger_Disciple said:

I predict BAC was sold completely (90% probability), and there is a 50% chance Buffett sold all the remaining Apple shares in Q4. 

 

At the rate he was selling BAC I'm not sure there was enough time for him to completely sell it out in Q4.  He could have stepped up the pace once he had confidentiality but it seems like he usually moves this aircraft carrier a little slower than that.  If he blew out all the BAC in Q4 that would certainly send a message.

 

edit - I asked chatGPT and it told me he would have had to have averaged 14.74 million shares per day on each of the 52 days the NYSE was open between 10/16 and 12/31.

 

That's a lot of stock but I suppose it's doable.  Just not very Warren-like

 

This screenshot was his pre-privacy rate ->

 

Edited February 3, 2025 by gfp

[Blake Hampton]

17 minutes ago, Munger_Disciple said:

I predict BAC was sold completely (90% probability), and there is a 50% chance Buffett sold all the remaining Apple shares in Q4. 

 

That would be $100 billion of additional cash if you're correct

[73 Reds]

21 minutes ago, gfp said:

 

At the rate he was selling BAC I'm not sure there was enough time for him to completely sell it out in Q4.  He could have stepped up the pace once he had confidentiality but it seems like he usually moves this aircraft carrier a little slower than that.  If he blew out all the BAC in Q4 that would certainly send a message.

 

edit - I asked chatGPT and it told me he would have had to have averaged 14.74 million shares per day on each of the 52 days the NYSE was open between 10/16 and 12/31.

 

That's a lot of stock but I suppose it's doable.  Just not very Warren-like

 

This screenshot was his pre-privacy rate ->

 

I got the feeling that once he started selling BAC he was done with it.  It is interesting that he continues to hold AXP as quite a legacy investment and seems to hold that stock (and even KO) to a different standard even though both companies have lost a significant part of their moat over time. 

[gfp]

10 minutes ago, 73 Reds said:

t is interesting that he continues to hold AXP as quite a legacy investment and seems to hold that stock (and even KO) to a different standard even though both companies have lost a significant part of their moat over time. 

 

He 'gon be alright

[73 Reds]

Just now, gfp said:

 

He 'gon be alright

Oh yeah, the stock is doing just fine.  The company, eh....

[Munger_Disciple]

51 minutes ago, gfp said:

 

At the rate he was selling BAC I'm not sure there was enough time for him to completely sell it out in Q4.  He could have stepped up the pace once he had confidentiality but it seems like he usually moves this aircraft carrier a little slower than that.  If he blew out all the BAC in Q4 that would certainly send a message.

 

edit - I asked chatGPT and it told me he would have had to have averaged 14.74 million shares per day on each of the 52 days the NYSE was open between 10/16 and 12/31.

 

That's a lot of stock but I suppose it's doable.  Just not very Warren-like

 

This screenshot was his pre-privacy rate ->

 

 

It's possible Buffett didn't sell all of BAC in Q4 but sold the remainder in Q1 '25. Buffett blew out of positions when he wanted to; an example would be airlines in 2020. 

[Ver]

3 hours ago, Munger_Disciple said:

I predict BAC was sold completely (90% probability), and there is a 50% chance Buffett sold all the remaining Apple shares in Q4. 

Given how heavily he was selling Apple in the 220's it would be extremely illogical for him not to have sold what he could when Apple was in the 250's.

[gfp]

Well we know one thing Ted or Todd has been buying -

https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/315090/000095017025012600/xslF345X05/ownership.xml

[Spooky]

1 hour ago, gfp said:

Well we know one thing Ted or Todd has been buying -

https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/315090/000095017025012600/xslF345X05/ownership.xml

 

Damn he's still at it. Wish I knew what they know about this company.

 

[gfp]

1 hour ago, Spooky said:

 

... Wish I knew what they know about this company.

 

 

If I had to guess, they probably have a different view on the terminal value of the spectrum than the average investor.  If the company can continue to generate free cash flow to buy in shares and pay down debt, by the time the core radio business peters out the spectrum they own between Xm and Sirius could be worth a lot.  In the meantime it's got a DaVita kind of thing going on.  I assume it is Ted Weschler for that reason but I forgot which one I decided it was from the broker used.

 

It's funny that this company went straight from being controlled by Liberty to being controlled by Berkshire.

Edited February 4, 2025 by gfp

[Munger_Disciple]

56 minutes ago, gfp said:

 

If I had to guess, they probably have a different view on the terminal value of the spectrum than the average investor.  If the company can continue to generate free cash flow to buy in shares and pay down debt, by the time the core radio business peters out the spectrum they own between Xm and Sirius could be worth a lot.  In the meantime it's got a DaVita kind of thing going on.  I assume it is Ted Weschler for that reason but I forgot which one I decided it was from the broker used.

 

It's funny that this company went straight from being controlled by Liberty to being controlled by Berkshire.

 

Interesting hypothesis. However it's a pretty narrow bandwidth spectrum (audio only) so I am not sure why it would be worth significant $$$. Plus they can't really sell it until satellite radio service is no longer viable so it might be several years out. And if they want to repurpose it for terrestrial use, they have to get FCC permission to do so. 

Edited February 4, 2025 by Munger_Disciple

[Spooky]

10 hours ago, gfp said:

 

If I had to guess, they probably have a different view on the terminal value of the spectrum than the average investor.  If the company can continue to generate free cash flow to buy in shares and pay down debt, by the time the core radio business peters out the spectrum they own between Xm and Sirius could be worth a lot.  In the meantime it's got a DaVita kind of thing going on.  I assume it is Ted Weschler for that reason but I forgot which one I decided it was from the broker used.

 

It's funny that this company went straight from being controlled by Liberty to being controlled by Berkshire.

 

Interesting. I'm fairly certain it is a Ted investment.