Buffett/Berkshire - general news

[gfp]

Article on coming Q4 Michael loss estimates at BRK:

 

https://www.reinsurancene.ws/berkshire-hathaway-pegs-hurricane-michael-loss-at-up-to-550m/

[Orchard]

Matt Levine has a very short take on BRK share buybacks which has an interesting quote:

But it feels presumptuous to think that Berkshire’s shareholders would be better stewards of their cash than Buffett is.

 

Full take is in the middle of his today's Money Stuff column:

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2018-11-05/expensive-stocks-make-for-good-bonds

[Cigarbutt]

This article is an update on the ballot item in Nevada to open up NV Energy's regulated monopoly to more choice.  Obviously NV Energy would still own the distribution infrastructure.  BHE has been spending a lot of money on lobbying / advertising.  Some large individual casinos had already won the right to pay a termination fee and buy their power from an independent producer. 

 

https://www.politico.com/story/2018/10/27/adelson-buffett-nevada-890190

https://www.rgj.com/story/news/politics/2018/11/06/63-million-spent-defeat-nevadas-question-3-worked/1908835002/

[gfp]

Greg Abel already running the place!

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-11-08/berkshire-s-egan-nabs-a-more-delicious-position-at-see-s-candies

[gfp]

Don Graham article on the recent accounting changes that result in goofy net income figures at Berkshire:

https://www.wsj.com/articles/i-cant-see-berkshires-bottom-line-1541636012?mod=searchresults&page=1&pos=1

[Dynamic]

A new SEC filing of type SC 13G has appeared, disclosing an 11.3% stake in StoneCo Ltd. (ticker: STNE) of São Paulo, Brazil (14,166,748 shares of Common Stock)

 

None of this is attributable to Berkshire's pension funds - all is held via National Indemnity Company.

 

The IPO came after 30th Sep 2018 so it will not appear in the 13-F filings which are likely to be released in the middle of next week.

 

The price since IPO on 25th Oct has been between about $27 and $31 per share. At current price of $27.70, the stake is priced at $392 million USD. The IPO price was $24 per share, Berkhire's stake presumably having cost $340,001,952.

 

The 13G filing must be made within 10 business days of acquisition of a 5% stake, so it's likely to have been acquired on 25th October at IPO.

[gfp]

Yeah, Berkshire's involvement was in the IPO prospectus (which doesn't help you get a lower price - wonder why they did that?)

 

The Walton family VC vehicle Madrone owned a lot and added 2.75m shares in the IPO and management at Madrone told Todd Combs about it and Todd decided to invest.  There are some 3G principals invested in it as well - I believe from an earlier round.

[Jurgis]

Todd and Ted would (might?) be great if BRK was 10-100 times smaller. At this size it's going to be tough ... for anyone, even Buffett himself.

[John Hjorth]

Todd and Ted would (might?) be great if BRK was 10-100 times smaller. At this size it's going to be tough ... for anyone, even Buffett himself.

 

Jurgis, they just have to deliver, according the their signed contract with Berkshire. No soft feelings here from me. They are hired to deliver.

[rb]

Nah, they'll be ok. This is how it goes. One Monday Todd walks into the office and goes.... Hey Ted, let's go talk to the old man about buying GE. Done.

 

See... it's not that hard.

[John Hjorth]

Nah, they'll be ok. This is how it goes. One Monday Todd walks into the office and goes.... Hey Ted, let's go talk to the old man about buying GE. Done.

 

See... it's not that hard.

 

OK, rb. My reply to Jurgis was actually about that I [in general] worry more about myself than Ted & Todd. [ : - ) ]

[Jurgis]

Nah, they'll be ok. This is how it goes. One Monday Todd walks into the office and goes.... Hey Ted, let's go talk to the old man about buying GE. Done.

 

See... it's not that hard.

 

LOL.  8)

[redskin]

Berkshire's cost basis in 'Banks, Insurance, Financials' increased by $15 billion in Q3.  $5-6 billion can be attributed to the increased stake in BAC.  Will be interesting to see the additions he made.

[bennycx]

Probably USB, BK, GS

[John Hjorth]

Yes, and it seems that the prayers by globalfinancepartners and I have been heard : JPM shares for USD ~4 B. [ : - ) ]

[gfp]

Look at that..  You CAN buy JPM if Todd's on the board, since it wasn't Todd buying the shares.  He's getting his banks after all.  Better late than never!

[gfp]

Extra holdings not captured by dataroma, from General Re New England Asset management -

 

https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1004244/000108514618002756/xslForm13F_X01/form13fInfoTable.xml

 

BAC +1.75 million shares

BK +11.063 million shares

JPM +545,000 shares

ORCL +1.287 million shares

PNC +1.1 million shares

TRV +43,000 shares

 

In addition to the stuff reported at Dataroma from the regular 13F:

https://www.dataroma.com/m/holdings.php?m=BRK

 

-------

So, Berkshire owns exactly 900 million shares of BAC, or 9.17%

[rb]

Who the hell bought oracle?

[gfp]

Who the hell bought oracle?

 

In total it is 42.7 million shares of ORCL.  If it keeps getting bigger, I would guess it's Warren.  At this size (over $2 Billion), it could technically be any of the 3.

[John Hjorth]

The exposure to US banks is now enormous - about USD 70 B [getting to USD 67.8 B alone from Dataroma, exclusive New England Asset Management]. It better go well.

[sleepydragon]

The exposure to US banks is now enormous - about USD 70 B [getting to USD 67.8 B alone from Dataroma, exclusive New England Asset Management]. It better go well.

 

The big four banks are trading at depressed PE, buying backs stocks each year using  70-80+% of their profits. If it keeps going, they will be no shares left after a decade.

[sleepydragon]

So WEB is going to own 10% of the entire banking industry in USA?

Maybe FEDs shall invite him at their next meeting. Haha

[boilermaker75]

The exposure to US banks is now enormous - about USD 70 B [getting to USD 67.8 B alone from Dataroma, exclusive New England Asset Management]. It better go well.

 

I sure hope so! My four largest holdings are

 

1. BRKB

2. WFC

3. BAC

4. BK

[sleepydragon]

The exposure to US banks is now enormous - about USD 70 B [getting to USD 67.8 B alone from Dataroma, exclusive New England Asset Management]. It better go well.

 

I sure hope so! My four largest holdings are

 

1. BRKB

2. WFC

3. BAC

4. BK

 

How funny. These are my top 4 holdings too, and at the same order. There only difference is these four are also my Only holdings.

[Dynamic]

I'll update my public Look-Through portfolio sheet soon, but for now here's a summary of the moves.

 

The following figures are for the shares beneficially owned by shareholders, so they exclude known Berkshire pension scheme holdings. They also include stocks held via New England Asset Management for Berkshire but filed in NEAM's 13-F with owner code '01 02'.

 

AAL -4.2% -1,000,000 shares American Airlines falling to 22,958,000. The other 20,742,000 are in pensions. (buyback related reduction?)

AAPL +0.2% +522,902 shares Apple up to 252,810,459. Another 2,837,753 in pensions.

BAC +28.6% +200,000,000 shares Bank of America Corp up to 900,000,000

BK +42.1% +24,111,850 shares Bank of New York Mellon up to 81,400,977 (plus 7,511,249 assumed in pensions)

CHTR -2.8% -163,200 shares Charter Communications down to 5,640,648. (1,700,337 more in pensions)

DAL +2.9% +1,869,160 shares Delta Airlines up to 65,535,000

DVA - unchanged but own a higher percentage due to DaVita buybacks

GHC - eliminated Graham Holdings position (was 107,575 shares)

GM +2.3% +1,067,800 shares General Motors up to 46,988,558 (5,472,853 more in pensions, assumed)

GS +37.3% +5,099,145 shares Goldman Sachs up to 18,784,698

JNJ -8.0% -28,382 shares Johnson & Johnson down to 327,100

JPM New Position 36,209,767 shares JPMorgan Chase & Co

LUV -0.9% -500,000 Southwest Airlines down to 56,047,399 (buyback related)

ORCL New Position 42,691,791 shares Oracle Corp

PNC New Position 7,187,819 shares PNC Financial Services Group Inc

PSX -55.6% -19,296,490 shares Phillips 66 down to 15,433,024

SNY - Reduced/Eliminated uncertain. -3,701,012 shares in US ADRs eliminated. Euronext Paris stock is not reported on 13-F. May still hold approx 40,433,985 equivalent SNY ADRs based on 2016 10-K via Paris

TRV New Position 3,586,688 shares Travelers Companies Inc

UAL -2.8% -700,000 shares United Continental Holdings Inc down to 24,393,163 (1,591,379 more in pensions) probably buyback related

USB +15.3% +18,203,375 shares U.S. Bancorp up to 137,120,760 (590,275 more in pensions)

VRSK -64.0% -1,779,811 shares Verisk Analytics Inc down to 1,000,325 (all remaining shares in NEAM now)

WFC -2.8% -13,374,425 shares Wells Fargo & Co down to 465,156,000 (buyback related trim)

WMT Eliminated Wal-Mart Stores Inc position (was 1,393,513 shares)