TwoCitiesCapital

Fixed it.

The guys chasing Alex Peretti were armed. And at no point did he touch his. And he was defending a woman with his body before being dragged off of, pinned to the ground, and executed by those who chased him. And yet Kyle Rittenhouse gets to be a guest speaker at Turning Point USA and this guy is an "assassin"? Like I said, different rules when you're shooting brown folks.

Different rules when you're shooting brown folks

" These are the real patriots." - "you can tell this man was a terrorist by the way he's on his hands and knees with his back turned and 4 government officials holding him down while the 5th shoots him in the back" -

Ashli Babbitt - storms the capitol with an angry mob that beat the shit out of cops - was breaking her way through a barricade with an armed office on the other side who provided multiple verbal warnings. Republican response: "This is travesty a patriot died today" An armed man who never reaches for his gun, but uses his body to shield a woman from being maced for recording armed/masked domestic terrorists is being pinned down by 3/4 officers while another unholstered his gun, points it, and shoots. Republican response: "he was an assassin trying to kill Federal agents why would ever have a gun anywhere near a federal agent?!?!"

You can tell by who they elected

It's meant to be a message to Trump's political enemies - Walz was the VP on the ticket opposed to him. "You don't wanna end up like Walz and MN, do yah?"

Republicans: "school shootings are tolerable so we can maintain arms against a tyrannical government" Also Republicans: "You gotta do what the tyrannical government says or get shot, libtard! Heil Trump!"

Anyone who disagrees with das Führer is a terrorist. But here I was thinking it was the guys in masks with guns who were assaulting women that were the terrorists when I grew up. I must need re-education.

So when the real patriots start shooting back and a civil war erupts between fascists and freedom fighters....how long can the USD remain the reserve currency even with no viable alternative?

Another day. Another murder by the anonymous/masked secret police. An unconstitutional invasion spreading violence through government sanctioned murder. And all of the second amendment thumpers who been swearing we needed to tolerate school shootings so we could stand up to these exact types of injustices sit in their arm chairs and cheer it on

+1 I actually think book value tells the story better now that it used to Before you had insurance subs carried well below economic value, hidden value in things like Pet Insurance and run-off, Digit which was a small/invisible speculative bet, interest rates at 0% overstating the bond/float value, etc etc etc. Long equities offset by deflation swaps, equity index shorts, and unknown individual name shorts. Lots of obfuscation requiring adjustments in both directions. But through selling portions of their insurance subs to their partners they got to mark those values up, Digit is no longer a small piece of the pie, value was unlocked from subsidiaries in Pet Insurance and run-off, look-through to public equities for much of the recent value creation, and interest rates finally provide a value to float. And none of that has to be adjusted for unknown shorts/gross exposures at the index level. We can simply take the earnings as they are.

You don't have to hold them to maturity And borrowing at 4.3% works until markets go down 20% and you could've made 7-10% instead. Market returns are uncertain and bonds provide some level of certainty - having short term bonds is what allowed me to buy Fairfax this morning when it dumped -6%.

And yet 10-year treasuries yield 4.3% and 30-year mortgages still have a 5-handle. Bonds are crazy good value right now even if you expect inflation to pick up a little this decade like I do.

I'm glad someone else picked me up on this Yea. I normally use limits. Put on in at the mid, but it didn't fill. Decided I didn't want to wait and just used market orders to get filled. Was 1% above the quoted price, but still a -6% handle on the open price so I was satisfied.

I mean, the move hasn't been "missed". It's still down 5-6% from the open and much more than that YTD. Even if you didn't bottom tick the -9% this AM, there may still be time to get shares there and you may still benefit from buying at 10-15% off the 12/30 top.

It's possible. We're all doing our part But without knowing what's causing the flash crash of 8% and billions wiped off the market cap, there's no way for us to know if it'll persist.

I bought more. Increased my position by ~6% with the intent to let those shares go if we get back to ~$1,900 USD. Had to buy at the ask with a market order to fill, but am ok not catching the bottom. Will be a cool ~15% if we get back to $1,900 which will be better than what I was making in short term bond funds. This takes share price back May with no accounting for profits, market appreciation, and share repurchases since or that much of that is going to continue even if insurance softens. This is where we'll see the reflexivity of the TRS though - as of today, Fairfax owes its counterparty $500-600 million. If share price doesn't recover by 3/31 (I'm assuming these are quarterly reset swaps), that'll be cash out the door and not money that can be used for repurchases.

It's a secular trend. USD/treasuries have been falling as a percentage of global reserves for over a decade. Foreign ownership of treasuries have been falling for years. You don't need a mass exodus/migration to give them reason for the marginal transaction to accelerate away from the US and for it to impact the USD and Treasury rates over the coming decade I think the best reason to buy them is simply because there is a massive spread to current inflation rates (and near-term forward rates) giving an attractive real return AND optionality to move in your favor.

In aggregate - this is the case. But at any given time, anyone holding USD can sell into the FX markets, buy gold, buy oil, etc to get rid of the USD. Someone is left holding the bag of USD, but doesn't mean there can't be selling pressure and price impacts as people sell to others willing to hold the bag.... You don't have to worry about a USD collapse before we see the collapse of other fiat currencies - but doesn't mean it can't depreciate against real assets like what we see with Gold and Bitcoin (on a longer term scale).

Buy the rumor - sell the news. Anyone arbitraging index flows and dividends is probably getting out. All those who wanted in are already in. Temporary supply/demand mismatch. I imagine it'll fix itself after Q4 earnings are announced

Your implying that he sells the government's whole stake to have the cash to use. That won't happen. And if it does, probably getting significantly less than the DCF value of the stocks when you'd be dumping that much stock onto the market all at once hoping their are flows to absorb it. 80% of public vs 100% of private only looks better on paper and Trump doesn't give a crap about how it looks. He wants the control and public listings and getting rid of the Senior Preferred don't do that.

Only if you care about the future instead of your 3-years. Trump doesn't strike me as a long term thinker with the way he upends trade agreements every 4-years to make himself look "strong" on blue collar jobs. True. And yet he can still steer them as he's doing with $200 billion in mortgage purchases. And has been pointed out, all he has to do to make another amendment to the SPS so they pay it out again. You say this, and yet they're still in C-ship with an ever increasing government liquidation preference 15 years later. If the incentives are so obvious, how have they failed for over a decade? Particularly after the removal of shareholders rights/economic claims by the courts which should make anyone even MORE wary of getting involved.

I was just generalizing using their warrants/stake. I have no clue what happens to the SPS, what it worth, how it converts to common, etc to have thrown out any other numbers. I don't actually believe 80% is the right number The point still stands that <100% ownership and limited control over cash flows is not as good as 100% ownership and 100% control over cash flows.

I'm not 100% certain that is the point. Whether or not the gains are market to market or equity accounted doesn't change the taxes Fairfax pays. Like us - Fairfax will only pay taxes on Eurobank when sold or when dividends are received IIRC