TwoCitiesCapital

Lol

Or copper rise significantly relative to it. We'll see where we were trading at in April, but I'm not inclined to be interested in the offer at this price.

I wonder if it goes through at all. Why should Foran shareholders vote this through just for a 6% premium? I wanted copper exposure. That's why I bought it. If you're gonna take that away from me, fine! But pay me for it. I trimmed my shares a hair at 7 CAD last week just because the vertical climb probably needed a breather - but I'm gonna want a higher price to let the whole position go than the ~$6-6.25 CAD this represents.

Exco =\= Exor

There's a thread on it where that is covered.

Fairfax invested 400 million euro in Eurobank in 2014 and took nearly a 100% loss on it in the restructuring. They then committed a few hundred million more AND purchased Eurolife. Ultimately, Fairfax's capital commitment/capital at risk on Eurobank was significantly more AND while it was a significantly smaller company. I don't think we need to sweat UA just yet. I think people underestimate the size of the repurchases because they're not including the impact of the repurchases of associates and maybe not the impact of the TRS (which comes through earnings instead of a balance sheet reducing of shares). Fairfax HAS repurchased substantial amounts over the last 5-years demonstrated by any measure - float/share, earnings/share, stocks & bonds/share, etc. I don't think they need to commit 100% of excess capital to repurchases oyf there are other opportunities with attractive returns that diversify future return streams. I must be a glutton for pain. Forgave Fairfax and loaded up in 2021/2022 Forgave Eurobank and loaded up in 2020 Currently forgiving and doubling down on JACK Doubled down on Fannie/Freddie in 2020 when Biden was elected. Have owned Exor since 2014/2015, been adding to it ever since, and here we are below my average cost-basis for that 10-year period and I'm still adding. Accumulated BTC at $14k and rode down to $3k in 2020, accumulated the whole way up to $40k and road down to $15k in 2022, and accumulated all the way up to $100k and road down to the current ~75-80k now. I regularly chase pain, I suppose. But long term it's worked out for most of those.

Wait until you find out how much it costs to ask Grok which starting goalies you should use. Or to generate an image. Or how much America spends in electricity for Christmas lights each year. Which Treasury companies are you alleging own futures on the CME instead of spot product?

People talking a lot about how BTC can't be a store of value because its too volatile or its moving down while silver and gold are going up seem awfully quiet about silver's 35% drop in 6-hours on Friday. I dunno if BTC has been that volatile at any point in the last decade. Clearly silver can't be a store of value given that this is the third time it's manic'd/panicked in the last 40 years, right? Fact is: all stores of value are volatile, none track inflation exactly, and all have been subject to speculative runs...and all still preserve value over long periods of time and display similar characteristics that make them good for this purpose

My primary qualm with comparing it to 2022 is that the high was nowhere near the same scale measured by many factors (price to estimated network value, social excitement, return from trough, return from prior peak, etc etc etc). So why would we expect the drawdown of similar scale of the upside preceding it wasn't of similar scale? I'm still in the camp the 4-year cycle crowd is has been throwing in the towel, capitulating, and perhaps even shorting, and that is going to be a supply overhang/demand reduction that is going to need to be overcome. 4-year cycle crowd throwing it in is becoming somewhat self fulfilling, but we'll probably see a significantly reduced bear market both in length and magnitude. The electricity cost to produce Bitcoin is currently estimated to be ~$50-60k. Throw in the cost of miners, materials, land, etc and you're upwards of $75-100k. So I don't expect it to stay at these prices for long before you start an exit of high cost miners leaving and reducing supply further as they're no longer dumping BTC to stay afloat and low cost miners get more BTC to hold.

+1 It's funny to me that the US is characterizing it as a free ride. It is the US that prints paper out of thin air and trades it for valuable goods/labor all around the world. We are given the free ride. And in exchange, we were expected to maintain global trade and enforce a global order for that trade to persist. Trump doesn't know the first thing about being a reserve currency, the advantages that has provided us, or how to maintain that advantage. And maybe that's for the best for everyone else - because US foreign policy has been problematic for decades, as you've pointed out, and the checks and balances so weakened that another Trump could come alone and do the same things. So maybe it's time someone else with a bit more wisdom to police the world, the global slowly replaced USD reserves at the margin, and the US can do some reflection and what is necessary internally to fix itself.

Lol. Guilty.

70s were great for gold and 70s were massively inflationary. 80s -2000s had inflation but gold's return was negative-to-flat for the 20-year period. Gold did well 2000 - 2020 despite an unprecedented regime of low interest rates and inflation. It doesn't always clearly align to trends in inflation - just tends to match the cumulative inflation over extended periods of time. Gold started off as a worthless mineral in the ground. Over time, it's monetary properties were appreciated by more and more and it was adopted by more and more for saving/spending. During this period of time, the growth of its "market cap" dramatically exceeded that of inflation due to having started near $0.00 in value and becoming something of significant value to many. Once it hit a critical mass of a sufficient market cap to be a store of value for the globe is probably about the time it's returns started to be quite a bit more stable and became a tracker of real-inflation adjusted money. Much like gold, Bitcoin started off worthless. And much like gold, it's grown in value as more and more people grow to appreciate its monetary characteristics. And like gold, it's value/market cap has significantly exceeded that of inflation during that adoption phase from being worthless to global store of value. And once it becomes that global accepted store of value, it will have a market cap sufficiently big to serve that purpose and will become a stable tracker of real inflation-adjusted money. The difference is Bitcoin is going to do it in our lifetime while gold took generations because we live in the information age. This is false. Gold was flat in 2021 and 2022 and negative in inflation adjusted returns as a result. This is what non-correlation looks like. Sometimes it trades with. Sometimes it trades against. And using the decades above, I'd argue gold isn't even really correlated with inflation/fiat devaluation either. It simply does a decent job tracking it over very, very long timelines of 30-40+ years.

How old was the Internet when it finally got global penetration at the consumer level? It wasn't 17 years I'm sure AI will have some level utility for society. Not entirely sure what it is today. For the moment, Grok still can't even look at publicly available resources to tell me fo which goalies are starting to make valid recommendations for my fantasy hockey team. But you're right about it sucking up capital. And just like I was buying commodities when they were out of favor, I'll be buying Bitcoin while it's out of favor

Just like TIPS went down in 2022. There are multiple risk factors/components to BTCs price. Over the long-term, I expect debasement to dominate. But in the meantime, it's an emerging technology that requires positive sentiment and continued network growth - both struggle when people struggle. Thank your lucky stars and stack more sats if you can

Trump's position is to weaponise US demand, but then get upset when people recognize the threat of it being weaponized and diversify I guess Trump expected people to thank him for putting a gun to their head instead of seeking ways out of the situation?

OTC FFH is not an ADR and there are differences. ADRs are NOT the underlying stock. Just a trust that holds the stock that issues securities against it. 5-digit Tickers ending in F are just the foreign shares traded over the counter. You can't be forced liquidated without realizing it on those securities

Same. Historical bear markets against gold were all just a little over a year long. We're at 57 weeks right now, so I think the relative valuations are probably close to a bottom. +1 Once I understood the Bitcoin technology use cases, the superiority of its ease of validating/using/carrying/securing seemed obvious. I think even Central banks will come around. There just ISNT much BTC free float. When you get the first major country seriously acquiring? Like a China, India, US, Japan, etc? Game over. Those flows into the current free float explode the market cap. Anyone already owning BTC is in a good spot. Everyone else is going to scramble to catch it while watching their reserves devalue into oblivion on a relative basis. If you thought the silver bull market didn't really let anyone in.....just wait.

How often would you say this works?

There was some corporate restructuring between eurobank and a subsidiary where they merged, which resulted in the ADRs no longer being listable. The trust liquidated underlying shares for cash back in December but ha syet to distribute it. The ADRs have NOT been effectively tracking their underlying NAV, or the Eurobank shares, as a result leaving some confused/bewildered/etc.

Funny things happen to ADRs around corporate actions/events. I owned the prior iteration of ADRs before Eurobanks 2015 restructuring. After it was announced, shares in Greece were down like 80%. ADRs? Only down like 40-50% and stayed there for days. I exited the whole position at a significant premium to where the shares should have traded. A couple days later it collapsed down to par with the Greek shares Similar things happened with Russian ADRs when they were delisted. Sberbank in the US was down 99%. Shares in Russia were never even close. I picked some ADRs just in case. If I ever get to touch the money, will be an easy 10-20x even if I'm exiting at a single digit P/E multiple.

I mean, you saw what both of them did under Obama and Biden, right? And for gold, Bush before them. These aren't presidential trends. These are long-term fundamentals of the monetary system being reflected in prices.

Buffett also doesn't like things without cash flows like Gold or Bitcoin and his DCF type analysis doesn't work on them. And despite that, both have outperformed US equities, generally, for an extended period of time. So maybe there's more to consider than just Buffett's wisdom

The tag and rejection of short term holder averages was definitely a cause for technical concern That being said, I've been saying for awhile id believe the 4-year cycle was broken when it broke. And I'm thinking we've been witnessing that. First cycle where new ATHs were made pre-halving. First cycle where post-halving year was flat/negative. First cycle where there was no blow-off top. So why not have it be the first cycle that extends beyond 4-years w/ no 80% drawdown?

I am surprised by the comparative action, but silver and gold are moving for both fundamental and speculative reasons. I have a friend who is not in finance, but is somewhat savvy. More of a WSB type guy. Went to a junior metals conference last year and came out with a bunch of penny stock junior miners and call options on materials. He's doing well right now and rolling profits into more OTM calls. Doesn't know what half the companies do, they're breakeven rates for production, timelines to start producing, etc. Better to be lucky than good. I doubt he's the only one seeing/benefitting from the price action and driving more flows/gamma into the space. I'd expect, at some point, a fairly dramatic correction if for nothing else than shaking leverage out of the system. Then we'll see where gold/silver land for a longer term trend. And those speculative/gambling mentalities may then return to BTC if it ever manages to get interesting to them again.

They all got pardoned - because that's what fascists do. They reward loyalty and punish disloyalty. Has nothing to do with crime/laws/circumstances/actual threat