TwoCitiesCapital

The history of Bitcoin thus far is those who've simply held, even through bear markets, have eventually outperformed basically every alternative. Sounds like Bitcoin holders are the house? You'd be hard pressed to find anything with a better 3-, 5-, or 10- year return profile or a better sharpe ratio. Seems pretty useful and safe to me as long as you have a sufficiently long time horizon....which is true of any "safe" stock as well.

How does that happen? When was the last time a president ran a budget the same as 4-years prior? All money from gov are essentially "transfer payments". And those monies are transferred to people who spend them. So if you remove them, doesn't that also remote spending? GDP is just a measure of spending so would absolutely be impacted. I have no debate about the inefficiency of government spending, but sounds like you're focusing on the pennies and Trump needs dollars. But I suppose we have to start somewhere.

I have my trim targets @ $250k and $350k. I'm not certain those will hit or not. But, some of the guys that I've followed that have been WAY more accurate than me in the past have $300-500k as the eventual top so ... we'll see

EV does include debt - so backing out the debt gives you the equity valuation less cash. But what's confusing is that shouldn't this be equity accounted since they own more than 50%? That would be purchase price less dividends?

Late to the convo I knew the analyst that used to work for Semper - or one of them (not sure how many are employed). I pitched both Fairfax and Fairfax India to him. His response makes me think that they don't trust the management. Perhaps that was from a surface level review in response to the equity/deflation hedges that ended poorly? But they were uninterested in discing further and already had some familiarity with the company. Can't recall exactly when the conversation was had - but was at some point between 2019 - 2021

If you think they're worth $0.50, I'll sell you some for $0.25?

My apologies. "Agricultural and food related industries". Didn't realize they included restaurants and food service in with agriculture and food production. https://www.ers.usda.gov/data-products/ag-and-food-statistics-charting-the-essentials/ag-and-food-sectors-and-the-economy/#:~:text=Agriculture and its related industries,percent of total U.S. employment.

So 25% becomes 12% when knocking out those who are already working full time. Then that 12% reduces even further when we assume that some of the are, in fact, legitimately disabled and or too young to work (below 18 years of age which ~30-40% Medicaid recipients are I believe). So suddenly we're down to the low single digit percentages where fraud might be a factor. Even assuming 100% fraud we're still talking about only 1-2 million people. Seems a pretty small number compared to the current 22 million in current full time/part time agricultural jobs and we haven't even thrown in construction.

Kansas City Fed chief says that her family owns a bank in Kansas and that they serve farmers and ranchers. With that perspective, she added its getting very difficult to find people to work agricultural jobs Are all the "they're stealing our jobs" crowd going to move to Kansas and work as farm labor? Or are they gonna keep complaining about their lot in life instead of doing something about it? We're gonna get to see

Re: the cyclicality and predictability of crypto Tim Peterson has been posting and updating this chart for a few months now So far has been amazingly accurate at predicting current price movements, and when they occur, by analyzing the average of prior cycles. Its hard for me to imagine what kind of capital requirement are needed to flow into the industry to get to $500-600k this cycle, but maybe it plays out the same way again. Watch out for that mid-cycle shake out though. That 50%-like drawdown is gonna be a doozy

Rolled out of positions in BITU in exchange for IBIT Leaps. Near similar 2x leverage but without the decay on down days eroding overall total return over the life of the option. Have a number of bull put spreads on BITO expiring between now and December. Will rolls those to IBIT options too. Love the idea of being able to sell covered calls against my core IBIT position to generate income as well, but will wait for the market to get real forthy before giving up the upside.

I don't think volatility justifies significant premiums to NAV and am highly skeptical of the "infinite money machine" people believe Saylor has found. That being said, it's not as dumb as paying million for monkey JPGs and we've seen that in the crypto space too, so anything can happen I suppose. I prefer the straight exposure without the basis/dividend risks and I expect most directional traders will as well. If you're just capturing volatility risk premia? Then there are dozens of options outside of IBIT that may be better at any given time

IBIT options are also more volatile than BTC itself. And have no basis risk. There are scenarios now where MSTR price could fall even while BTC rises or vice versa. IBIT options allow you to cleanly play the thesis or hedge without that risk

Will be huge IMO. Allows you leverage without having to pay 3x MSTRs NAV, the negative roll yield often accompanying futures contracts, or unexpected dividends that reduce the likelihood of the strike being hit. So better than all other alternatives and will absorb that capital.

Items that they either will pay less for over time as they improve efficiency or increase hybrid and battery EVs as portions of their lineup. https://www.teslarati.com/stellantis-eliminate-buying-emissions-credits-tesla/#:~:text=Stellantis brand Fiat Chrysler Automobiles,goals on an annual basis. Alternatively, Trump may cancel any incentive to buy them.... Musk's positioning close to Trump may be an asset. Trump's desire to cut spending on credits (and NASA) while courting coal country and getting rid of regulations may not be... at least not for EV fan boys.

Did Trump's first term give us any confidence that was what he was about? While perhaps appropriate for investment forum, the be-all-end-all of life isn't the total balance in my accounts and I think it's ok that I, and others, care about other things too. This is exactly what I expect to happen. He demonstrated it enough in his first term. I, for the life of me, cannot understand why people believe this time will be different. But better for traditional ICE auto-companies? They also benefit from tariffs, are priced like dog shit, and are now on more equal footing without the $7,500 credit?

As someone who played with ETH and DeFi on 2021, the potential seems to be there. But the fees killed it. You want to deposit your crypto at in a dApp and earn interest? You pay to permission the dApp to spend the crypto (each crypto), then you pay for the actual transaction, then you pay when you want to change the balance or claim the rewards or withdraw. Often times fees are $5-10/apiece pending how high demand is and how intensive the transactions are in computing power. The way they fixed this? Via multiple layer 2 solutions that didn't talk with one another and required another set of hefty fees (at the time) to get onto and off of along with 5-10 day type settlement periods. Pair this with rug pulls, unscrupulous actors, hacks of legitimate dApps, and legit dApps that just seized activities forcing you to transact, it was too much to navigate while prices were falling 90+%. I think things have improved slightly since then, but not enough to get me re interested. ETH ecosystem seems roughly the same as it did 3 years ago, but BTC has continued to power forward.

This isn't true - at least not in the traditional sense that would matter to common/preferred shareholders who would be expected to be entitled to that 'net worth'. They're accruing 'capital' - but every $1 of retained earnings is offset by a $1 increase in the Treasury's liquidation preference. The retained earnings are NOT owned by the companies nor the shareholders - it is owned by the Treasury

Or gold. Fixed income's problem is when interest rates fail to exceed inflation. Gold primarily does well when interest rates fail to exceed inflation. It's a natural hedge and a natural substitute to nominal bonds without the duration impact of TIPS offsetting the inflation adjustment. It has complimentary risk factors to fixed income while also regularly serving as a "risk off" investment so I typically consider my gold allocations as part of my fixed income portfolio and used it as a substitute for long-bonds back in 2021/2022. I personally have a position limit of 10% of my net worth (not necessarily my portfolio) on any 1 stock. And the stocks that I tend to take it there themselves are more conglomerates like Fairfax or Exor - so perhaps I could afford to loosen that some and bump it to ~15% for diversified companies. I've just had many large positions go against me while my small ones tended to do best so I was trying to correct for the error of overconfidence and equal weighting which would have seen me do significantly better earlier on in my investment career. The way I've always characterized it is that concentration is for wealth building...if you're right...and diversification is for regret minimization if you realize you could be wrong. I try to straddle a middle road. I concentrate 5-10% in each of a handful of names and diversify the rest.

I own a hair. Just a small amount left for my forays into DeFi. Would be the wrong point to sell it IMO. Long term I have few thoughts on ETH, but historically we're approaching what would be the time when ETH starts outperforming BTC.

It's not a Trump rally. It's the traditional post-halving rally that has happened every 4 years regardless of who was elected. It just happens to coincide with the election cycle this time around. Historically Bitcoin has gone vertical ~6 months post halving. Halving was in April. October was 6-months after that. If it plays out like prior cycles - it'll rally for 10-12 months and a face melting vertical climb with some major 30-50% pull backs along the way. Eventually this cycle will break - enough people will front run it to void the prior trading history. But every cycle people say that is going to happen then it plays out the same so waiting for it to break rather predicting when it will.

Fortunately for me, I bought a slug @ $12k and DCA'd all the way down to $4k and bought all the way back up to $40k over that period. Back then $500-600 still bought an appreciable amount of BTC . Unfortunately, there were set backs like losing 0.5 BTC in the Celsius bankruptcy and diverting my attention away from BTC accumulation to DeFi and altcoins, but Bitcoin covers a multitude of portfolio sins. At this point, $500-600 is dropping pennies in, but pennies I expect to compound at 40+% per year.

Yes. How you size it is up to your risk tolerance. What you sell to fund it is up to you as well. I hold both BTC and Fairfax. BTC is weighted far higher and Fairfax is by far my largest equity position. I recommend starting with a reasonable slug, committing to a DCA schedule either biweekly or monthly, and then have the patience to wait 3-5 years for a whole cycle to play out. The downdrafts are stomach turning, but acceptable with how quickly this compounds. I put $500-600 in every 2 weeks and have for most of the last 4-years. I put another 10-15k in during October to be opportunistic with the rally I expected shortly thereafter. I buy both BTC directly (via Coinbase and stored on a hard wallet) as well as BTC in my IRAs via the ETFs. I don't try to time the tops and bottoms, but I do have targets for when I reduce/eliminate my DCA and targets I'd be willing to let go of a minority of the position in my IRAs go for. We didn't hit those targets last cycle - we may not hit them this cycle - and that's ok with me. Because we'll hit them next cycle and I'll have more BTC.

We may not be quite at 100k yet, but its damn close enough to take the victory lap with 7 weeks left in the year. To be clear, this prediction was made when BTC was @ 61k. It wasn't an guarantee, but was very probable given the valuation of the network, where the price was trading relative to network value at that time, and how BTC has behaved post supply halving in the past cycles. This is the informational edge @james22 is referring to - it's still easy.

It reminds me of BTC in 2013, 2017, and 2021.