glider3834
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Eurobank, currently holds 29.2% in Hellenic Bank, therefore after the completion of the Transaction, its total holding in Hellenic Bank will amount to 46.5%. Consequently, in accordance with the provisions of the Takeover Bids Law of 2007 in Cyprus, Eurobank will proceed, following the completion of the Transaction, to a mandatory tender offer for all the outstanding securities of Hellenic Bank not already held by it at the time.
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Eurobank making a move on Hellenic https://cyprus-mail.com/2023/08/23/eurobank-to-increase-share-in-hellenic-bank-to-46-5-per-cent/ https://knews.kathimerini.com.cy/en/business/eurobank-secures-full-control-of-hellenic-with-pimco-share-acquisition
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unclear what the size of this acquisition is for Fairfax - article paywall protected https://www.unquote.com/uk/official-record/3029870/exponent-divests-significant-stake-in-meadow-to-canadian-investor meadow foods - recent results https://www.thegrocer.co.uk/dairy/meadow-foods-reports-strong-growth-with-sales-and-profits-up/674367.article https://meadowfoods.co.uk/about/ MEADOW HAS GROWN OVER 30 YEARS INTO A £550M VALUE-ADDED INGREDIENTS BUSINESS SPECIALISING IN THE DAIRY, CONFECTIONERY, ICE CREAM, PREPARED FOODS AND PLANT-BASED INDUSTRIES.
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https://www.zawya.com/en/press-release/companies-news/gulf-insurance-group-announces-net-profit-of-kd-253mln-825mln-for-the-first-half-of-2023-n33dfufu GIG paid a div of close to US$50M in 1H23, which I think is one reason why increase in shareholders equity didn''t increase in line with US$82M profit in 1H23
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So Fairfax had $2.7B div paying capacity in subs at end of 2022, given their operating performance over 2023 in 1H has exceeded the corresponding period in 2022, seems reasonable to assume we are north of $3B now. Adding that to the $1B or so of cash & investments at the holdco & we have over $4B. With interest & dividend income pushing close to $500M per qtr - the rate of build in dividend paying capacity in the subs should accelerate going forward IMHO. I think we need to have a look at volatility of results too - with Allied one of the key reasons for recent credit rating upgrade was that they have reduced their cat exposure so that potentially reduces volatility of underwriting profit - we can see that in Allied's lower CR. Looking at NPW growth rates for Allied, Odyssey & Northbridge for 1H'23 YTD these were 9.6%, 5.2% & 4% respectively. For the same period in 1H'22, NPW growth rates were 21.8%, 31.3% & 11.1%. So that looks like decelerating growth to me and that IMHO should be supportive of theses subs building their div paying capacity further. I suspect they don't want to publish their div paying capacity on a quarterly basis before they do their reserving audit in Q4 & thats why we get it annually. I do think tax planning would be a consideration, liquidating investments in the subs to pay the holdco would potentially trigger tax & they might want to avoid which is why when they are sending divs to holdco it is generally coming from sale proceeds from divested businesses - this is just my hunch. Also credit ratings would be a consideration at the sub level - higher upgrades (eg recently for Odyssey, Crum & Allied) I would think would reduce borrowing costs and a higher rating also benefits their insurance business - so a good thing. So the reasons why they are not sending more cash to the holdco I think go beyond supporting NPW growth although I agree that is a key consideration.
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I don't think PacWest deal is fully included either - was expected to close end of Q2 or early Q3 I think The closing of the Transaction and the sale of each Loan is subject to the satisfaction of customary closing conditions (including Pacific Western Bank securing certain counterparty consents and waivers), and it currently expected to close in multiple tranches during the second and early part of the third quarter of 2023.
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pretty decent jump on consolidated interest & dividends $464M in Q2 ( vs $382M Q1)
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starting new thread for Q2 out next Thurs
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viking with Excess of fair value over book value number that Fairfax reports, I believe it excludes non-market traded, non-insurance consolidated subs like Sporting Life Group or AGT
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1H results out today 'Mytilineos recorded its historically best H1 year performance led by the energy sector, achieving another large increase in net profitability and consolidating high performance. In particular, turnover increased to €2,516 million compared to €2,154 million in the first half of 2022, marking an increase of 17% despite the significant de-escalation of energy and metal prices. Earnings before Taxes, Interest and Depreciation (EBITDA) also recorded a significant increase, by 49%, to €438 million compared to €293 million in the corresponding period of the previous year, benefiting from the steady increase in the profitability of the Energy Sector and in particular the activity of Renewable Energy Sources (RES), which contributed the largest percentage (29%) to the Sector's EBITDA, as well as the supply of electricity and natural gas, as a result of the continuous internationalization of the company's activities. Mytilineos achieved its historically best performance in the first half of the year led by the Energy Sector. In particular, in addition to the significant contribution of M Renewables (RES of Greece and abroad), which saw its profitability more than double (+117%) compared to the first half of 2022, the Energy sector was also favored by the substantial strengthening of the presence of Mytilineos in the supply of natural gas in the wider region of the Balkans and SE Europe. ' https://www.capital.gr/epixeiriseis/3729301/mytilineos-alma-61-stin-kathari-kerdoforia-to-a-examino/
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yes agree nwoodman - its a really brilliant study While not a 10 bagger, Fairfax India has had close to 6-7xbagger with NSE India & after around 7 years! They paid $27M & on grey mkt valuation their 1% appears to have value close to $200M https://www.livemint.com/market/ipo/nse-ipo-creates-buzz-in-unlisted-market-shows-the-investor-interest-in-issue-11687254813352.html - what I didn't realise is they originally wanted to buy 5% & not 1%!
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good point viking on PV of this transaction I would expect it would be a net positive for Fairfax's underwriting profitability & overall CR
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thanks nwoodman - still kicking myself over Piraeus when it was trading close to a PE of 2x a year ago -but I was already fully invested and seriously overweighted with Eurobank via Fairfax
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thanks a great summary Viking - also if Eurobank decide to take control of Hellenic bank https://www.ekathimerini.com/economy/1215031/eurobank-eyes-control-of-hellenic-bank/ that could potentially also add meaningfully to their pre-tax profit growth https://cyprus-mail.com/2023/06/28/hellenic-bank-expects-pre-tax-profit-to-exceed-e200-million-in-2023/
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yes Fairfax which started around 1986 effectively 'acquired' these liabilities via acquisitions of subs they made On the positive side higher investment returns, asbestos liabilities becoming increasingly smaller relative to shareholders equity and Fairfax has been reducing its long tail exposure eg sale of Riverstone Europe Riverstone US/TRG - Run-off - shareholder equity (31Dec) 2022 $405M (3% of FFH shareholder equity) 2012 $1,773M (23% of FFH shareholder equity)
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full disclosure guys thats me dino was replying to cheers
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https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-07-07/greece-s-eurobank-plans-to-expand-overseas-wealth-management
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https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20230706093283/en/AM-Best-Upgrades-Credit-Ratings-of-Odyssey-Group-Holdings-Inc.’s-Members
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I also think this IFRS 17 accounting shift is potentially one reason why they were comfortable entering into forward contracts to buy around $3B in Treasuries in Q1 and effectively lock in rate - as they don't need to be as concerned about BV impact from MTM. I can't see why they wouldn't continue to make these types of moves if they like where interest rates are & they want to extend duration further. But lets wait & see what they do.
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With IFRS 17 accounting I would expect higher rates should also result in higher discount rate being applied to their insurance liabilities/ reserves and reducing PV of these liabilities, which should offset the MTM loss on their bonds. Also any rates impact should be greater on their reserves which are longer in duration and larger in size than their bond portfolio.
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Just on cat risk exposure its worth considering Fairfax's corporate structure. Fairfax subs have historically had different levels of risk exposure to different types of cat events - for example when Hurricane Ian occured, Brit bore 50% of the overall losses sustained by Fairfax. With the recent earthquake in Turkey, Odyssey Group sustained most of the losses from that event. And intuitively it makes sense to do this rather than spreading the risk exposure equally. If you intentionally write more risk exposure to a particular type of risk/s/event through one sub ( and also managing risk exposure at an aggregate level), you are ring fencing most of the losses from the rest of your business (ie the other subs) through your corporate structure.
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https://www.business-standard.com/finance/personal-finance/digit-life-enters-insurance-space-with-maiden-product-group-term-plan-123062600546_1.html
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National Stock Exchange of India (NSE) - unlisted market transactions are suggesting valuation around US$20B - on that basis Fairfax India 1% stake would be worth around US$200M - timing of IPO still unclear https://www.livemint.com/market/ipo/nse-ipo-creates-buzz-in-unlisted-market-shows-the-investor-interest-in-issue-11687254813352.html 'The current share price in the unlisted market values the bourse at around ₹1,65,825 crore.' “At this price, the PE Ratio of the bourse stands at roughly 22 times on historical basis versus BSE Ltd at 37 times and MCX at 50 times and international exchanges trading between 30x to 40x," the brokerage report said.