Jump to content

gfp

Member
  • Posts

    4,826
  • Joined

  • Last visited

  • Days Won

    8

Everything posted by gfp

  1. Maybe send him a copy of 'When Genius Failed'? I would have no problem with 100% of my investable net worth in Berkshire at 1x book value (not a typo, didn't mean .1x). But I wouldn't do anything like that for an arb spread that can widen just as easily as it can narrow. That's just stupid. I think the Lion Fund did the closest I've seen to 100% in one position with CBRL. Fairholme did as close as I've seen in a mutual fund with AIG. People lever up and put multiples of their net worth into commercial real estate deals all the time. I think that was what ultimately turned Charlie Munger off from that business.
  2. Which ones do you want to short? There is at least one ETF, ticker SOCL, but it has exposure to big profitable companies that might not be the ones you are looking to short. I don't recommend going short on valuation alone, but if you have an issue with a specific company and it's business model and valuation, buy a long dated put or short the stock/basket. The real bubble seems to be the private companies and you won't be able to get short those. Someone on this board mentioned a wonderful short, Bazaarvoice, a few years ago and I was very happy to short it and stay short once I got to know it very well. The valuation was absurd. But I wouldn't necessarily want to be short Facebook, Yelp (for sale?) and twitter.
  3. I didn't see any mention of an IRA account in your question. If you are US-based and have some of your investable capital in IRAs, that would be the place to park a potential PFIC. I would not ignore it and hope the IRS doesn't notice. I put Pershing Square Holdings, Kennedy Wilson Europe and Fairfax India in IRA accounts with no issues.
  4. He didn't say much, but his analyst did an update on Freddie and Fannie. This is the gist of it: * Continues to believe that F/F are vital to the 30 yr. mtg and market share has continued to grow * There is a growing acceptance that they are vital and here to stay * It was an unlawful taking, and the current situation is both legally and economically untenable. * Stuff coming out of Sweeny case suggests the Government hasn't turned over all the documents it was required to * Plaintiffs are making progress in moving forward towards a trial * Believes the market misinterpreted the dismissed case in Iowa as being a material event (it was dismissed because of it's similarity to laberth case) Lamberth case is on appeal, so there are still two cases going, with sweeny progressing nicely. * Core credit guarantee business of F/F continues to be strong. * Government profit sweep is on reported earnings, so the Gov. has taken less recently even though the core business continues to improve. Reported earnings are bing depressed by mark-to-market losses on derivatives to hedge a fixed income arbitrage porfolio. The underlying assets that are hedged have increased in value, but the hedges depress current reported earnings. * As the fixed income arbitrage portfolio shrinks, he thinks that the underlying strength in the core business will show through --- Then in the Q&A section: * Estimates it will take at least through the end of the year to get through discovery, with the government attempting to withhold documents it can take awhile. Believes the judge will be harsh on attempts to withhold documents * Estimates a year, year and a half before a trial begins * Analyst throws out wild-ass-guess on date of a final decision from the trial: May 12th 2017. Gets some giggles, but the analyst stands by his number.. * They believe some positive decisions in court will help to spur parties to the negotiating table, "we'd love to help if we can." * Says their average cost on Fannie and Freddie is around $2 and they hold above 10% of each (of the float, i assume) * In response to a question on the applicability of the Starr/AIG case decision, he says a decision in favor of Greenberg would be a slight positive for the F/F cases, but not directly applicable since the plaintiffs in the F/F litigation are not challenging the expensive preferreds, etc... * Question was how likely are plaintiffs to succeed vs Fannie and Freddie and what type of upside do you see in that situation - Bill answered that they believe they are "much more likely than not" to win in the court of claims or on appeal and that he envisions "very significant upside in fannie and freddie" * says F&F combined are around 3% of consolidated assets
  5. The seeking alpha article they pointed you to is way off on the investments per share math.
  6. The MO for Van Tuyl / Berkshire so far has not been to acquire large groups. They have acquired 3 or 4 dealerships since the deal was announced and they are likely to continue their joint venture model where they partner with the selling management team.
  7. When you know the headline of the article you want to read on WSJ or Barron's you type that in to a google search or google news search and when you click through you will get a "free pass" to read the article. You have to access it through the search engine though. What's the google backdoor?
  8. California taxes capital gains the same as ordinary income. Some states don't have a capital gains tax. The system in California is progressive and starts at 1% and goes all the way to 12.3%. It might be the worst state for capital gains taxes but I don't know for sure.
  9. edit - never mind, site fixed
  10. Glad to hear it isn't just me - yes, the site has been painfully slow this morning.
  11. Two houses for sale - the one you are talking about is really playing it up in the marketing - http://www.livenexttowarrenbuffet.com/ (not super classy..)
  12. I haven't seen any personal notes out there yet, but the WSJ notes cover pretty much everything. Morningstar also did one, but it wasn't quite as good. http://blogs.wsj.com/moneybeat/2015/05/02/live-analysis-the-2015-berkshire-hathaway-annual-meeting/ Here's one from a fool contributor - http://boards.fool.com/berkvilles-golden-year-31738454.aspx Here are M*'s - http://news.morningstar.com/articlenet/article.aspx?id=695453
  13. No, it's somebody else. Has been in the same family for 50 years
  14. Really great - thanks for posting this!
  15. Sad that at least one value investor who traveled to Omaha for the meeting this week was killed in a car crash while in town. http://www.dnaindia.com/india/report-dalal-street-veteran-parag-parikh-dies-in-car-accident-in-us-2083201
  16. Omaha is obviously a very inexpensive housing market, but that house is certainly very dated. Radiators, carpet, old kitchen, baths, etc.. Thanks. Wow only $370k... I can barely get a fixer at that price in my area.
  17. http://thegoodlifegroup.npdodge.com/property/39862762/306-S-54-Street-Omaha-NE-68132
  18. BNSF 10-Q is out as well - always interesting to see. Another Billion dollar dividended out to Omaha this quarter - http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/934612/000093461215000016/llc-3312015x10q.htm
  19. I assumed he was asking about total share count (A equivalents or B equivalents) and not changes in the categories that combine for total share count.
  20. jobyts, did I miss where you shared your AUM?
  21. "BV didn't budge. Haven't figured out why." Page 4 of the Q breaks down the changes in comprehensive income. Unrealized investment losses and foreign currency translation are responsible for most of the difference between the income and the $1.3 Billion increase in net worth. "Other investments" was hit by a little over a billion dollars - remember that BAC was at 17.89 at year end and 15.39 at the end of the quarter... warrants to purchase 700 million shares
  22. 1st Quarter results are out - http://berkshirehathaway.com/news/MAY0115.pdf http://berkshirehathaway.com/qtrly/1stqtr15.pdf
  23. This quote from a site below kind of sums up why US investors are just recently worrying about it. There were changes in the last few years that alerted folks to the issue -- "The FATCA legislation not only requires new self-reporting on PFICs and other foreign held financial assets, but also requires all “foreign financial institutions” to report on the assets held by U.S. citizens and U.S. permanent residents directly to the IRS by 2014. While it may seem hard to believe that foreign financial institutions would willingly comply with such reporting requirements, the fact is that industry observers expect nearly universal compliance with the new rules by banks, brokerages, insurance companies, mutual funds (anything “financial”) around the world, because of the severe sanctions the FATCA law imposed on non-compliant financial institutions. The point is that all U.S. citizens must assume that as of 2014, the IRS will have a direct and easily accessible window onto their holdings in foreign financial institutions. It will be easy to cross-reference direct reports by these institutions to the IRS with self-filed form 8938 and 8621 and determine whether or not your PFIC investments have been properly reported and the tax properly calculated and paid." http://thunfinancial.com/why-americans-should-never-ever-own-shares-in-a-non-us-incorporated-mutual-fund/
×
×
  • Create New...