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gfp

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Everything posted by gfp

  1. For what it's worth there is a similar / complimentary business that is blowing up big for one of my neighbors - turn key management of airbnb rentals for absentee owners - labor is same as a maid business and they charge more. Not sure if your market is big on airbnb but New Orleans (where I live) has had a huge airbnb phenomenon the last few years. Managing them looks like a nice business - either that or my neighbor is drastically outspending his income on automobiles!
  2. Mars is very large and doesn't appear to be interested in selling out anytime soon (just announced a $7.7B acquisition and recently bought out BRK on Wrigley) - but I don't think tobacco has anything to do with why it may or may not be a "no-go". McLane is a huge distributor of Tobacco products - I don't think diversified distributors are "no go's" just because they happen to distribute tobacco products to retailers. There are a lot of very large private companies globally, which is why Warren is trying to raise BRK's profile abroad - especially in Germany with the Motorcycle Accessories retailer. Not a 'fit' for BRK, but good marketing to get him on private companies' radar screens.
  3. Wait for it to come out, then look into a free trial of HBO Now, their over the top subscription service. http://help.hbonow.com/app/answers/detailHBO/a_id/17/~/how-does-the-hbo-now-free-trial-work%3F
  4. Tiny acquisition - http://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20170111006145/en/Richline-Group-Acquires-Aaron-Group http://the-aaron-group.com/#home
  5. Not the first time, Warren has become fond of mixing in EUR notes with his US borrowings, especially at recent rates. March 2015 was one of the first if not the first time he sold debt in Euros. Isen't this the first time BHF is issuing notes in EUR? Ballinvarosig Investors, if you are in Rome right now, enjoy!
  6. New CEO at Lubrizol- http://www.plasticsnews.com/article/20170103/NEWS/170109987/lubrizol-names-schnur-as-ceo
  7. Ajit made a deal for a reinsurance policy with a $650m single premium - ----------------------------------------- (from insurance insider) The Hartford buys $1.5bn adverse development cover Catrin Shi The Hartford has struck a $1.5bn reinsurance agreement with Berkshire Hathaway unit National Indemnity Company (Nico) to cover certain legacy asbestos and environmental liability exposures, it announced today. The aggregate excess-of-loss cover provides up to $1.5bn of reinsurance for adverse net loss reserve development above estimated net loss reserves of $1.7bn as of 31 December, when the cover took effect. The reinsurance premium was $650mn. The cover excludes the £477mn ($588mn) of legacy exposures held by The Hartford's UK P&C run-off subsidiaries. Legacy acquirer Catalina agreed to buy those subsidiaries in July and the deal is expected to complete in the first quarter. The Hartford will take a charge of about $423mn, after tax, against fourth quarter net income as a result of the Nico arrangement. It will continue to handle claims and retain the risk of recoveries under third party reinsurance contracts for the exposures. "Our asbestos and environmental exposures have generated adverse loss reserve development over time, creating uncertainty for investors and others about the ultimate cost of these policy liabilities, most of which were underwritten prior to 1985," said The Hartford CFO Beth Bombara. The reinsurance premium is expected to have a "slightly negative" impact on 2017 P&C net investment income. The Hartford said its previously announced 2017 capital management plan, including share buybacks of $1.3bn, should be unaffected by the Nico deal. Mayer Brown represented The Hartford on the reinsurance agreement.
  8. Here's a note from Insurance Insider - apologies if the information here has already been posted / covered: ---------------------------------- Fairfax-Allied deal to create fifth-largest E&S writer Catrin Shi Fairfax Financial's proposed acquisition of Allied World will take pro-forma gross written premiums (GWP) to around $12.5bn and make the group the fifth-largest excess and surplus lines (E&S) writer across all of its operating companies. Based on figures for the 12 months to 30 September 2016, pro-forma GWP amounts to $12.5bn, with a combined ratio of 92.4 percent, according to an investor presentation. Three-quarters of the combined portfolio would be North American business. The combined E&S businesses would make the pro-forma company the fifth-largest E&S writer by direct written premium, up from Fairfax's current ranking of 11th and Allied World's current position of 20th. The combined entity would generate $1.28bn in E&S direct written premium. Notably, in Fairfax's announcement of the deal, the firm said it would run Allied World on a "decentralised" basis, making pro-forma figures less substantive. The deal would also make the pro-forma company the seventh-largest North American insurer by market capitalisation. In the investor presentation, Fairfax said the complementary business profiles of the two firms would create a "leading franchise" in global specialty insurance, and would significantly deepen Fairfax's presence in the North American specialty market. The combination of the two firms would enhance the size and scale of the business and bring "significant" invested assets, it said. Allied World's investment portfolio will give Fairfax an additional $9.4bn of assets to invest, with the Bermudian's investment leverage currently at 2.59x. Fairfax has averaged an 8.6 percent return on its investments over the past 20 years, with its model based upon central management of investment float generated by autonomous operating entities. The acquisition would also create a diversified portfolio by line of business, geography and distribution, while adding a strong and diversified source of earnings to the Fairfax group. Based on full-year 2015 figures, casualty business would account for 57 percent of the pro-forma portfolio across Fairfax's operating entities, which include OdysseyRe, Brit, Crum & Forster and Northbridge. Property business would comprise 30 percent of Fairfax's overall portfolio, while specialty would account for 13 percent. Pro-forma shareholders' equity would total $13.4bn following the completion of the deal. The figure includes the impact of new shares issued based on an offer price of $54 per share. -------------------------------------------------------------------- Another: Valuation in spotlight as Allied goes for 1.34x and 18% uplift Laura Board and Adam McNestrie Investors will be carefully surveying the scene for a competing bid for Allied World after the company's board agreed a sale to Canadian insurance holding company Fairfax Financial at a relatively low 18 percent premium to the undisturbed share price. Allied World CEO Scott Carmilani and the rest of the executive team have secured their futures with the management-friendly $4.9bn cash-and-shares deal given Fairfax's preference for a decentralised model. Although the valuation represents a peer-comparable 1.34x trailing diluted book value, the premium to the closing share price on Friday (16 December) was only 18 percent against a rule-of-thumb 20-30 percent. And the cash component is also modest, potentially as low as $10 per share of the $54 takeout price - with half of that coming from a pre-closing special dividend paid from Allied World's resources. This could put the cash component of the deal that comes from Fairfax as low as $443mn, although the Canadian bidder has the right to flex this up by a further $30 per share, or $2.66bn - potentially rendering the transaction significantly more attractive. The premium compares with the 40.3 percent offered in October by Sompo in its $6.3bn deal to buy Endurance, and the 30 percent paid by Ace when it bought Chubb for $28.3bn in July 2015. Exor's winning $6.9bn bid for PartnerRe in August last year was 23.1 percent more than the undisturbed share price, after the Axis nil-premium deal was successfully broken up following a four-month tussle. Tokio Marine offered a 37.6 percent premium in its $7.5bn bid for HCC in June 2015, while Mitsui paid 36 percent in its £3.5bn purchase of Amlin in September last year. And the $4.1bn XL agreed to pay for Catlin in January last year equated to 23.5 percent more than the carrier's share price just before the companies announced they were working on a deal. However, the benchmarking exercise is complicated by the sharp rise in Allied World's share price in the five month's leading up to the deal. The share price has risen almost 29 percent since 19 July, when the company announced forecast-beating second quarter results. The stock rose again in early October, climbing 8.7 percent in two days of trading, when The Insurance Insider reported that the company had held abortive talks about a takeover with Markel. The company, like most in the sector, has also benefited from the market bounce following Donald Trump's victory in the US presidential election. Fairfax will point to a deal structure that could give Allied World shareholders up to 27 percent of the enlarged entity. This would give shareholders access to the benefits of being part of a group which has delivered compound annual growth in book value per share of 20 percent since 1985, driven by CEO Prem Watsa's investment prowess. But with the headline control premium relatively low and the exact stock-and-cash mix of the offer unclear, there is ample room for an interloper to enter the fray. That said, there are relatively few likely acquirers for a $5bn asset with roughly $1.5bn of goodwill, particularly given the deteriorating operating environment. Potential spoilers include Japanese big three member MS&AD, which is said to be on the lookout for a US specialty insurance franchise of the type Allied World offers. Chinese interest would be another possibility, but the execution challenge of a hostile deal is likely to be a major hurdle to any such interest. Markel could also be tempted back in, although the attractiveness of a contested deal where it had previously been in position to consummate a friendly transaction is questionable. Deal-wrecking specialist Validus, which disrupted Allied World's agreed acquisition of TransRe in 2011, is another possible rival bidder. However, the company is believed to be much more wary of hostile deals than it has been in the past after its share price suffered in the wake of its successful breakup of the TransRe sale. Scor and Alleghany are likely to find a valuation above 1.4x book plus a break fee too dilutive to contemplate such a move. Axis has marked itself firmly as an acquirer in recent months, but despite its size advantage versus Allied World its trading multiple of 1.07x is likely to rule it out of the running.
  9. I guess I'm the exception here but I manage 100% of the life savings of both my Mother in Law and Father in Law. FIL is the bigger pain, as he can find fault in virtually any company (he is extremely liberal politically) and will then forget the 'ground rules' and request a divestment of a particular security. I kindly remind him that he did not sign up for a collaborative process and there would be no hard feelings if he would like to switch investment managers. He always shuts up at that point until the next time he conveniently forgets the ground rules. But he's had a stroke and I give him a pass on that kind of stuff. They asked me take over management of their savings for years before I agreed to take them on. Ultimately it was to save them from bad results and bad advisors. I took over just before the pre-financial crisis peak. Over time, as the market presented the opportunity, their portfolios have migrated to 80-90% Berkshire Hathaway stock - which they both seem extremely pleased with for a number of reasons. It has been very tax efficient for their taxable savings and the purchases have been at low enough P/B ratios to provide exceptional downside protection and returns that have exceeded the index. Berkshire also helps them avoid panic in deep market corrections and I think they enjoy pointing at train cars that pass. The Mother in Law has been one of the best clients in that she is 100% pleased with her results, trusts me to make appropriate decisions for them, and doesn't wish to meddle outside of requesting some cash every once in a while. It helps that she has become quite wealthy over time. I guess with in-laws, you take them on a case-by-case basis. I manage every penny of my own Mother's savings as well and she's been a very problem-free client as well. Lucky with temperament I guess.
  10. i didn't know that HBO had made a new Warren Buffett documentary - release date set: http://www.thewrap.com/becoming-warren-buffett-hbo-premiere-date/ Looks like it is with his cooperation and he will be largely narrating the film - http://www.thisisinsider.com/hbo-documentary-on-warren-buffett-becoming-warren-buffett-2016-12
  11. Warren resurfaced for another short interview with Fortune - only his second that I know of since the election http://fortune.com/2016/12/05/warren-buffett-donald-trump-election/ Talking about the returns of Mid-American / BHE he took issue with the interviewer's characterization of BHE as producing a low return for BRK: "But I think the return figures that you have are wrong. We paid $35.05 a share for the utility [in 2000]. And this year it’ll earn something around $30 a share, after tax." edit: In other news, BHE Renewables has just purchased Alamo 6 Solar San Antonio for $385 million- http://renewables.seenews.com/news/to-the-point-oci-selling-us-unit-for-usd-385m-549362 https://www.hubs.biz/power/explore/2016/10/110-mw-oci-alamo-6-solar-project-in-texas-to-go-commercial-by-dec-31
  12. Clayton 3rd quarter - "Clayton Homes’ revenues in the third quarter and first nine months of 2016 increased $173 million (19%) and $420 million (16%), respectively, compared to 2015. The increases reflected a 27% increase in year-to-date revenues from home sales, due primarily to a 22% increase in units sold and changes in mix. Pre-tax earnings for the third quarter decreased 13% and in the first nine months of 2016 were flat as compared to earnings in the corresponding 2015 periods. Clayton’s earnings in 2016 were negatively impacted by increased losses from insurance claims, increased impairment charges on servicing assets and lower gross sales margins, which partially offset the benefit from the significant increases in unit sales. As of September 30, 2016, approximately 94% of the installment loan portfolio was current in terms of payment status." Building Products Segment 3rd quarter - "Building products Revenues in the third quarter and first nine months of 2016 increased $32 million (1.1%) and $303 million (3.9%), respectively, compared to the same periods in 2015. In the third quarter, volume-driven revenue increases achieved by MiTek and Johns Manville were partially offset by revenue declines at Benjamin Moore and Shaw. In the first nine months, the revenue increase reflected increased unit sales across most of our product categories, and was partly offset by lower average sales prices and changes in product mix. Pre-tax earnings in 2016 increased $16 million (4.6%) in the third quarter and decreased $8 million (0.9%) in the first nine months as compared to the corresponding periods in 2015. In the first nine months, the favorable impact from increased sales volume and lower manufacturing costs attributable to deflation in certain commodity unit costs was essentially offset by increased charges related to asset impairments, pension settlements and environmental claims." Shaw just built a new plant for commercial carpet tiles - http://www.northwestgeorgianews.com/rome/business/shaw-industries-is-big-and-getting-even-bigger/article_ca17d538-b9f0-11e6-8415-c35734d01f84.html
  13. No big news but it's always nice to see the borrowing rates that Berkshire Energy subs get when they borrow post-acquisition. One the the easiest levers to pull on these debt-heavy industries is borrowing under the BRK halo despite BRK not guaranteeing the debt (outside of BRK Finance Corp / Clayton, etc). 30 year, 3.7% http://www.marketwired.com/press-release/altalink-lp-to-issue-450-million-in-medium-term-notes-2179086.htm
  14. Berkshire filed a standard correspondence note back and forth with the SEC today - no big deal, but some might find management's summary of Precision Castparts' business and the oligopoly markets it sells into interesting. I did. Starts on page five on this section of correspondence "As background, PCC..." -> https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1067983/000119312516732679/filename1.htm edit : Bloomberg wrote a piece about the exchange -> https://www.bloomberg.com/gadfly/articles/2016-11-22/warren-buffett-and-berkshire-a-matter-of-trust
  15. "I like their insurance underwriting results but I am concerned with their investment results." Join the club. Probably has something to do with the 20+% decline in Market Cap since the beginning of October.
  16. subsequent to quarter end: "The company has sold approximately 90% of the U.S. long term treasuries in its investment portfolios; as a result, its cash and short term investments will be in excess of $10 billion. " http://www.fairfax.ca/news/press-releases/press-release-details/2016/Fairfax-Financial-Holdings-Limited-Third-Quarter-Financial-Results/default.aspx
  17. It's been a great day to buy Fairfax. It is a lot like a spin-off - whenever you have a large turnover in shareholder base you will get opportunities (and liquidity) like this. One set of shareholders is exiting and it takes time for a new group to pick up the slack. Looking like it will get cheaper still, but you never know so I buy today and hopefully in the future as well.
  18. He has for a long time. He also owns 1m shares of JPM personally. The SRG shares are more widely reported recently.
  19. We get to see how much the $2.1 B face of Wrigley preferred was redeemed for -> "During 2008, we purchased $2.1 billion of Wrigley preferred stock that was acquired pursuant to a shareholder agreement in conjunction with Mars Incorporated’s acquisition of Wrigley. Pursuant to certain put and call provisions in the shareholder agreement, up to 50% of our original investment was redeemable over a 90-day period that was scheduled to begin on October 6, 2016. On August 8, 2016, we entered into a stock purchase agreement with Mars, under which Mars agreed to acquire all of the Wrigley preferred stock for approximately $4.56 billion, which included a prorated dividend that would have otherwise been payable on October 6, 2016. The transaction was completed on September 27, 2016. "
  20. Insurance Insider article -> -------------------------------- Swiss Re and Berkshire Hathaway explore legacy alliance David Bull and Dan Ascher Swiss Re is in talks with Berkshire Hathaway as part of a $1bn+ internal restructure of its legacy business that will put important new regulations for run-off books in the US to the test, The Insurance Insider can reveal. If the transaction goes ahead it could pave the way for the two industry titans to collaborate on future deals enabled by the new Rhode Island legislation, carving up legacy books between themselves. Sources said that Swiss Re is considering using the new rules - which are expected to be a boon for the $100bn US legacy market - to divest itself of the $1bn portfolio, freeing up capital. The pioneering transaction would see Swiss Re transfer those liabilities into a separately capitalised cell company in Rhode Island, for which it would then write the retro programme in conjunction with Berkshire. If the precedent-setting deal goes ahead, the two carriers would look to benefit from first-mover advantage in order to grow their foothold in the US legacy sector. The complex deal is still in its formative stages but the wheels have already been put into motion, with industry outsourcer and consultancy Pro Global Insurance Solutions - which used to be owned by the Swiss reinsurer - in the process of establishing a cell company. The vehicle, named ProTucket, would be used to house the mammoth book of liabilities. Swiss Re is hoping to transfer the business into the new entity and put in place a 100 percent retrocession programme to protect the cell. Sources have said that the Swiss giant is locked in talks with Berkshire about the structure of the proposed cover. It is understood that Berkshire would write the cover for any asbestos, pollution and health (APH) liabilities in the portfolio as Swiss Re looks to reduce its exposure to such risks. Swiss Re would write the retro for all other liabilities contained within the cell. Both Swiss Re and Pro are understood to be working closely with Rhode Island's regulator to get the deal completed. If it is rubber-stamped, the Swiss reinsurer would have to seek commercial court approval. Swiss Re, Pro and Berkshire would then look to replicate the process for other carriers with legacy books, which could effectively be lifted and dropped into a similar structure to ProTucket. The new regulations are intended to give US carriers an exit mechanism much like that offered by the Part VII transfer in Europe. Pro announced its intention to test the new legislation earlier this year. The new Rhode Island regulations provide a way for run-off portfolios to be transferred in a way that offers legal finality. Previous methods of disposing of discontinued US insurance books did not provide true final risk transfer. Swiss Re said it does not comment on market rumour and Pro declined to comment. Berkshire could not be reached.
  21. Buffett pays tax on the total value of his compensation from Berkshire, which is over $400k annually. This includes the value of personal and home security services provided for Warren and paid by Berkshire. Unlike most other companies, Berkshire doesn't pay for any of Warren's personal aircraft use - a common taxable perk for other CEOs which is often "grossed-up" by the company - meaning the company pays the CEO's tax bill associated with personal private jet use. Yeah, how dare he pay himself such a low salary when most other CEOs of his stature pay themselves tens and tens of millions plus large stock awards and low-price options with easy vesting targets, not to mention non-monetary perks like fancy offices, large staffs, private planes, etc... ::)
  22. From insurance insider: ----------------------------- AIG has agreed to sell its Latin American and central and eastern Europe (CEE) operations to Fairfax Financial for a cash consideration of $240mn. As part of the agreement, AIG will sell its local commercial and consumer insurance operations in Argentina, Chile, Colombia, Uruguay, Venezuela and Turkey to Fairfax. Fairfax will also acquire renewal rights for the portfolio of local business written by AIG's CEE operations in Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Romania and Slovakia, and assume AIG's CEE operating assets and employees. Both transactions are subject to regulatory approval. The disposals are part of AIG's strategy to refocus its geographic footprint on regions that offer "the greatest potential for profitable growth and the opportunity for AIG's commercial or consumer insurance divisions to achieve and maintain scale", the company said in a statement. Fairfax chairman and CEO Prem Watsa commented: "The LatAm companies are well established in their respective markets with experienced management teams and a disciplined approach to underwriting, and they will significantly expand Fairfax's footprint in Latin America. "The acquisition of the CEE operations follows on our recent expansion in Eastern Europe through our previously announced QBE transaction and will accelerate our plans for long-term growth in the region." AIG has been divesting various operations as it seeks to streamline the group, following pressure from activist shareholders to break up the business at the end of last year. In August, AIG announced a deal to sell mortgage insurance business United Guaranty to Arch for $3.4bn. Other disposals include that of Advisor Group and AIG's Taiwanese SME enterprise business. The firm is also said to be exploring the sale of a $5bn legacy book and a $15bn variable annuity book. Proceeds from divestitures are expected to contribute towards the ambitious $25bn that AIG has pledged to return to shareholders over the next two years.
  23. One good thing about being an employee these days is that it makes it easier to qualify for inexpensive loans to purchase residential real estate to rent out. If you don't own a home, consider buying a double or three-plex (and living in one of the units), if you already own your own home, maybe consider some rental properties with 30-yr fixed rate mortgages. Tutoring math is great - I spent a few hours today teaching algebra to a 16 yr old - but it is still trading your time for money. For most people in the United States who aren't trying to start a business (or two) of their own, rental real estate is probably the best shot to get started with meaningful passive income.
  24. http://finra-markets.morningstar.com/BondCenter/Default.jsp go to 'search', 'corporates' or whatever. might take some experimentation to get the issuer name / symbol correct. Remember to check prior names for companies that have had mergers / acquisitions.
  25. wachtwoord, can you point me to this iPhone predecessor - the one that apple copied?
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