gfp

Berkshire was a $40 Billion market cap company in the mid-1990's and had around $6 Billion of insurance float leverage at the time. If Fairfax can continue to execute on their model with the leverage from float that they have (float is waaaay higher and consequently leverage is way higher), I think it will be a mistake to sell the stock. The best thing that can happen for investors like me is to own enough of it at low basis in taxable accounts that it becomes very difficult to sell any and, in that way, a not-like-dealraker shareholder can become closer-to-dealraker.

Thanks for providing it and I agree with your assessment. Perhaps it would be helpful to all if you clearly disclosed that it was AI generated since the phrase "notes" does not convey that on its own. It helps to know if I am reading something from Nigel or something from an LLM before I read it.

Nice summary nwoodman - do you use AI for some/most of this? " For example, Fairfax India’s portfolio includes stakes in Kempegowda International Airport (Bengaluru’s airport infrastructure) and Go Digit General Insurance (a digital insurer) "

Fairfax Financial putting out a press release welcoming new senior advisor Amitabh Kant in India https://www.fairfax.ca/press-releases/fairfax-welcomes-mr-amitabh-kant-as-senior-advisor-2025-06-26/

Is that the same thing as the private sector accumulated dollar savings clock? Asking for a friend

Large volume buy orders today (for this security anyway)

Now you're talking! Maybe these books will get you off the sidelines into some actual long term investments! Outsiders alone could fix what's wrong.

All book values are different distances from economic reality. Fairfax could do a deal tomorrow that reduces their price to book value figure with little to no economic change in our value (part of what got Muddy Water all worked up). Some companies should trade at huge multiples of book value because book value is borderline meaningless. Others should trade at 1x or less. BV is just a historic record of accounting rules being applied to reality periodically. How long has it been since accounting adjustments have been applied? If Fairfax buys one of these "peers" at 3x book value it will instantly be called 1x book value once Fairfax owns it.

is that actual insider buying or is that compensation? I’m suspicious of them being actual open market purchases when the price per share is identical for multiple people

I'm here in Indianapolis dealing with a shocking turn of events! The NBA has run low on points to put up on the scoreboard for tomorrow's Pacers-OKC game and they are feverishly holding an auction to borrow points from the public so they have points to mark up the score on the scoreboard tomorrow night! Stay tuned for the bid to cover ratio so see if we are in a crisis and if the NBA will run out of points before tomorrow's game. It's a touch and go situation in Indy. gfp reporting. out.

I came here for Blake's hot take on the social security trust fund running out of money in less than a decade! Where is my hot take??

it’s the second time that article has been posted here. Is it a good article? It reads like a primer for kindergartners. Blake - what is the actual difference between a bank reserve, a treasury bill, a note and a bond? if the answer is - they are all the same, they are all liabilities of the federal government, they all serve as our money and they only differ in the rate of interest paid to us - why all this “who’s going to lend us the money!?” Fuss? deficits pre-fund the cash to buy treasury securities. Spending happens before a portion of that spending is offered a government security to park in. The reason people want treasury securities instead of bank reserves is because they are more useful in the real world. They serve as the foundational collateral for the entire global monetary system

Are you @Dinar ?

Are you talking about his headline in the WSJ ?

I can't tell if Buckeye is for real or not. This is bizarre logic. Maybe they are confusing Bitcoin with some type of Stablecoin where there is an issuer and a bank deposit asset / bank deposit liability situation? Or maybe they are just messing with you guys. There is certainly zero cash "backing" my purchase of Gold at $3400 an ounce. My $3400 goes to the seller of the ounce of gold.

I noticed this substack article today. It should be free to read. Nothing new here but it is a broad overview of the industry. Might be interesting to some here. Learning about the insurance brokerage business can be good for your bottom line! https://redwoodcapital.substack.com/p/the-unassuming-moneymaker-a-peek?r=8i9o6&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&triedRedirect=true

“Our great Farmers and people in the Hotel and Leisure business have been stating that our very aggressive policy on immigration is taking very good, long time workers away from them, with those jobs being almost impossible to replace,” Trump said in a post on Truth Social. shocker!!

I noticed the financial newspapers took a break from all writing the same article about treasury supply being unsustainable to write a few articles about “shortages of Tbills”. stay classy folks!

This pattern is the classic "I'm scared and rotating out of tech and into 'value' because I can't do my own work and the internet says the PE is 12" in the first 2/3 of the chart. Followed by the classic pattern of "a very large personality is finally retiring at my largest holding and I am turning over my portfolio to a professional money manager who is going to promptly liquidate my largest holding." Textbook

Thanks for the link to the bond issue. It was pretty great in the linked video interview up thread where the BIAL executive said - we just finished a $2 billion expansion and are about to start another $2 billion expansion- or something like that sad to see the plane crash this morning

It really depends on the timing of investments and distributions, which were then followed by additional investments. If Prem says repeatedly that BDT has provided "fantastic" returns to Fairfax over the long term and they keep booking realized gains associated with the BDT investments, I am inclined to believe him. Why lie about it?

I guess you should ask on the next conference call. We don't even know if the investments are primarily financing or primarily equity. It could be that the relationship with BDT is more valuable than the actual returns on capital.

In the 2022 annual letter, Prem characterized it this way: " We continue to invest with Byron Trott through various BDT Capital funds. Since 2009, we have invested $772 million,have received $960 million in distributions and still have investments with a year-end market value of $508 million. Byron and his team have generated fantastic long-term returns for Fairfax, and we very much look forward to our continued partnership." In the 2024 annual letter, Prem said this: " We continue to invest with Byron Trott through various BDT Capital Funds. Since 2009, we have invested $1.1 billion, have received $1.1 billion in distributions and still have investments with a year-end market value of $729 million. Byron and his team have generated fantastic long-term returns for Fairfax, and we very much look forward to our continued partnership." edit: Berkshire Hathaway also has at least one long term investment in at least one of BDT's vehicles. It shows up in the insurance filings and was converted to a single member LLC at some point. Not sure what it is invested in, but probably some type of merchant banker relationship with private companies.

Yes - find me someone who is not projecting higher rates. The government doesn't need to "borrow" through the treasury market at all. They certainly don't need to borrow at 20 or 30 years if they don't feel like it. If demand is for a small amount of long dated paper they can issue less. My thesis has been that there is actually a lot of demand for 20 year government paper yielding over 5% and, so far, every time it has been available it has found a wave of buyers pushing the yield back below 5%. Consensus is very loud right now. Everyone is in agreement that the bond vigilantes are coming to push up yields on bonds. Maybe everyone is right, you never know