SharperDingaan

All our UBS was bought at the time of the CS merger; bias as we have a very low cost base, a free put on the Swiss CB, and treat UBS as a CHF denominated cash equivalent. We think the incremental CS benefits still have 1-2 yrs to play out, following which UBS will be pretty much the same as every other major European DSIB. Outside of UBS we would look at the arms merchants, subject to a payback period of < 5 years. Given that NATO is being revamped, and member spending pushed > 2% of GNP/year, even a monkey should do well; the short payback steadily reducing European exposure, should conflict break out early. The hope that nothing happens, but borrow from the pages of German rearmament in the run-up to WWII. Different PoV, SD

UBS should be on there as well. We're a little biased , but if you must own a euro bank, this one also offers the benefits of the forced CS merger as well as the protection of a GSIB condom. SD

The reality is that the European way is not the US way, and Europe is a lot less homogeneous than the US. They ain't about to change and It's just a different approach; if it's not for you ... they'll tell you to get on a plane, and please f*** **f 27 sovereign states in the EU, and a shit show to govern. Yes governance will inevitably f*** ** from time to time, yet despite all the ongoing and material ADVERSE disruptions over the last 50+ years .... Europe hasn't experienced another great depression? The Europeans continued to enjoy a very nice life ... because, just maybe, the Largarde's/Draghi's of the world are actually very good at what they do ?? Just a different PoV. SD

The drug problem has always existed, everywhere in the world. It was tolerated 'cause it was fairly small scale, controlled by organised crime in return for keeping it 'contained', and was fairly easily kept out of the media of the day as few wanted to talk about it. Quite a bit different today. Make small quantities legal, and you clear a lot of court time for the more serious crimes. Costs vs benefits. Safe injection, clean and free drugs, and you save a lot of lives. Compassion vs Not In My Back Yard (NIMBY). Better social supports and you will have fewer addicts. Fix vs cover up the problem. For those caught, the traditional solution has been an automatic draft into the military; mercenaries or reservists determined by the seriousness of the crime. Nations need cannon fodder, addicts have a place to go, hard-cases end up either dead or very good (both useful), and prisons have space again. The solutions are there ... societies? ... not so much. SD

They were just being human. Denying the possibility of an armed conflict was comforting, so like a deer they froze in the headlights ..... and pretended that everything was OK. Same thing happens in mania's ... US housing, GFC and negative interest rates, etc. It's also why grizzled bastards are so hard to kill .... they survived the first time and are now experienced at it. SD

Most don't recognise that the 5,525 mile US/CAD border ALSO includes the 1,538 miles of Alaska. ADDITIONALLY, there is the 151,000 miles of coast - the vast majority of which is in the arctic. Over these distances and conditions, one needs all weather drones with infrared detection, and the ability to call in on-the-ground teams to investigate (Polar Bears and people look the same from way up) https://www.geographyrealm.com/interesting-geography-facts-about-the-us-canada-border/ https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/pub/11-402-x/2012000/chap/geo/geo01-eng.htm It's also two conversations .... what are you doing on the CDN southern border?, and what are you doing on the northern border? Good chunk of both would qualify as defence spending, and most would expect Predator drones to need arctic modifications/maintenance (ie: Bombardier). The third conversation is coastal defence. Develop and lay underwater sensor nets in the arctic passageways, and manufacture hunter/killer submarine drones that can use them. Buy/build icebreakers, forget the conventional sub purchase, and rely on state-of-the-art NATO submarine patrols for the rest. Ukraine was able to build sea drones ... no reason why Canada could not develop similar underwater drones (Bombardier?) for use in arctic waters. Defence spending. https://www.canada.ca/en/department-national-defence/news/2024/07/canada-launching-process-to-acquire-up-to-12-conventionally-powered-submarines.html Threaten the economic club ... and maybe Canada gets its act together. SD

Talk to those who travelled within Europe during the inter-war years. Paris, Berlin, Milan, etc. in the mid 1920's was quite something, and is often a reference point in the memories of those still around. We may well be in a similar period today ... so if the Trans Siberian or Orient Express is on the bucket list ... experience it and/or get it done while you still can. The age-old survival tactic is family on every continent, and savings/wealth in their local currency. Whoever wins, there is family in that country/continent, and the means by which to bring you over and help you re-establish. While your life will be done, you're still alive (assume conflict survival), and it is your kids that will benefit. In today's age, we simply have more/better tools. Today's comfortable living arrangements are just baubles; take time-out to appreciate it while you have it, 'cause you could lose it all tomorrow. If you need convincing .... simply talk to those in Ukraine; until the first Russian missiles fell, many in Kiev were also absolutely sure than it would never happen. First, borrow a page from the cockroaches - and survive; the thriving can come later! SD

All that a successor government need do to tighten border enforcement, contract a Bombardier to build drones for Canadian conditions, use them to patrol the southern and maritime borders, and make the expense part of Canada's 2% NATO spending requirement; tariffs exempt on both o/g and electricity. Manufacture 155 mm artillery shells and ATACMS consumables for NATO under licence, and maybe other good things happen too. Nobody likes freezing in the dark. A tighter border may well up saving money too; as drugs and guns flow primarily from the US, and not the other way around. Tighter borders and there's less pressure on health care and people shooting each other. SD

Quite agreed; flog the overvalued sucker at USD 99K to buy it back undervalued at USD 92K. Of course ... given that 'value' is all in the eyes of the believer, there is a need to make sure that you aren't blind-folded at the time! Point to all this is that it's prudent to take chips off the table from time to time; but what to do with the proceeds? there is only so much that one can spend without severely screwing up ones life. If it can't stay in BTC, and you can't spend it, then what? Poland (NATO, 1999) is now actively preparing for war, and the last time this happened it didn't go well. The opportunities to travel freely are beginning to close in, so if it is on your bucket list ... get it done. https://www.msn.com/en-ie/news/world/poland-prepares-for-war/ar-AA1uQoEw SD

25% of Canada's US Trade Value TODAY = border control costs + drug control costs + defence spending TODAY. Show hard commitments and maybe o/g (Alberta/Sask/BC) plus electricity (Quebec/Nfld) get exempted, and the tariff falls to 10% of Canada's US Trade Value. Open the supply management agreements and maybe it falls to 5%. Its 2024 folks; auto-pacts, defence arrangements, supply management, etc. is near 50+ yrs old and well past best-before dates. Modernisation and change is well overdue, are are not dirty words. SD

The Crown Rock acquisition was completed Aug 01, 2024. Results were included in the Q3 2024 numbers. Back out the acquisition and the conclusion remains; after 2 1/2 years of drilling their better Permian prospects, production is barely outstripping depletion - whether we want to hear it or not. https://www.oxy.com/news/news-releases/occidental-completes-acquisition-of-crownrock/ It's a similar story across most of the US basins. Growth is now primarily a function of consolidation, economies of scale, and 'manufacturing' from multi-stacked plays. Via control positions in the fields themselves, drilling services/materials, collection facilities, gas processing, egress, etc. A game of local oligarchs, not wildcatters. To make the purchases, the buyers have to be big ... producing from multiple sources, and maximising FCF across their entire portfolio. If the aim is to maintain production; add in differentials and replacement capex, and shale ain't that cheap. If the aim is to blow down production, it's the source of buyback dollars. SD

Before you post .... you might want to read the press releases. Occidental bought Crown Rock in December 2023, adding 170 MBOE/day. Your 729 MBOE/day was actually 559 MBOE/day before purchase .... Oxy added just 87 MBOE/day net of depletion over 11 quarters - or basically flat after burning through 2 1/2 years of inventory. Their growth is from consolidation, not new drilling. https://www.oxy.com/news/news-releases/occidental-to-acquire-crownrock-strengthening-its-u.s.-onshore-portfolio-with-premier-permian-basin-assets/ Quite a bit different. SD

Interesting discussion ... Keep in mind that today, much of US shale is owned and/or controlled by the majors; business is a lot more rational that it used to be. Of course there will be more drilling; but in existing fields it will very likely be fewer wells with longer laterals, in manufacturing mode, and with multiple bores from the same pad. Royalty and tax holidays on the new wells, environmental forgiveness if specific metrics are achieved, etc. NG exports ramped up, and multiple gas powered generating stations built to give the rising gas cut a market, end the electricity brownouts, and provide the power should EV develop further. Of course everybody wants new blocks of virgin land; but it doesn't mean they are immediately going to drill beyond delineating what they get. Can't come up with a plan when you don't actually KNOW what you're working with; and even then ... immediate production may not be the optimum approach. Everybody exports/imports various grades of oil; some of it purely because of geography, most of it purely because of production and consumption mismatch. For the most part, the US has too much light and not enough heavy for refining purposes. Trump guarantees a sizeable new gulf coast refinery that processes primary light, and there will be material change. Different PoV. SD

That's pretty damn good SD

Crypto culture thing .... The media sells the BTC story, and BTC celebrity, 'cause there is no other product; it can't sell BTC-ETF's as wealth management doesn't yet support 5% allocation to BTC. It's also a hard sell as there's no cash flow to support a valuation; hence any kind of 'story' is really just more entertainment in a popularity contest. Too big to be ignored, columnists are forced to write about it ... but it's a low return 'investment' Talking about BTC at USD 100K+ is great, but counter productive. In the real word, 100K will fund the down payment on a house being renovated for a flip, and the entire industry built around house flipping. Why flip houses when you could NET as much, with much less effort, simply trading BTC instead? Should BTC reach USD 250K are you going to buy the coin, or buy a (mortgage free?) house instead? Last time we had things hit the housing market, we had the GFC and it didn't go well. Last time we had Icelandic fisherman studying investment finance in quantity, it didn't go well. There is no reason to think that this will go well either ... but there is very good reason to think that this will also crest; and at around 300-400K/BTC if you believe in cycles. So what? We're trying to value a mania, there are a lot of things pushing it, and it's unlikely to end well. If you want to be the next JP Morgan, you need a way by which to keep the funny money .... when the sh1te inevitably eventually hits the fan. In the meantime ... it's a hell of a ride. GLTA. SD

One of smartest things you can own is installed, working, and essential capital equipment; and the more that it costs to build the better (railroads, pipelines, tar sand facilities, etc.). Until it's built there will be all kinds of screaming around overspends, and periodic stock sell offs will generate opportunities; but once it's up & running, starts paying a dividend, and is past its payback period ....... Every year inflation raises the replacement cost further, throughput and technology typically improve, depreciation steadily rolls off, and you end up with an industry controlling asset operating at essentially variable cost. The best that a competitor can do is buy out the asset and its accesses, then continue to operate it while also twinning it with a state-of-the-art replacement; even if the original is utter junk. That's one hell of a moat ..... and even monkey proof! Lot of o/g companies were built via serial acquisition paid for with stock, but few investors realise that it's a 3 phase process; growth via exploding share count (1-3 yrs?), post party collapse and share consolidation (1-3 yrs?), and pennies on the dollar acquisition via a debt to equity swap (1-2 yrs?). Everyone has heard the growth stories, maybe a few remember consolidation, but the debt to equity swaps? Point? Look at today's darlings, wish them all the luck in the world .. then go shopping 5-6 years out. Or, which sectors were big 5-6 years ago ... and where are they today SD

I was thinking more of "The Princess and the Pea". The true princess is not going to sleep well, no matter how thick her pillow and mattresses are with T-Bills https://interestingliterature.com/2018/11/a-summary-and-analysis-of-the-princess-and-the-pea-fairy-tale/ SD

Agreed BTC is great, but to survive the adverse volatility we also need diversifying assets. Trading gains need to go into something else of value, with a low correlation to BTC. That something else could be everyday spending, but if you do well, you really need somewhere else to put it; that expensive house in the world's major cities. Critically, one either solves this .... or risks being the next drug junkie; most seem to fail at it. Alternatively, one could just accept the volatility. Just keep in mind that that the $100K draw-down is a whole lot different to the $1M one; T-Bills are a great pillow, but the losses cannot be as easily ignored. They are also a lot easier to tolerate if you are looking out from your Greek island villa. When commodity prices are rising everyone is a hero; not so much when there are the inevitable downdrafts. SD

The 'tops' thing ..... It's a casino folks. The house is ultimately going to win so long as you keep the accumulating pile of increasingly valuable chips on the table; you need to do systematic material withdrawals, and put the proceeds somewhere. London/Paris/New-York/Milan Grade-A real-estate! No different to commodities; get your original investment back as soon you can, play with just the house money, and always keep the withdrawals in something useful/safe. The cycle reverses .... you still live. SD

I'm informed .... that the legacy's are daughters, family, and land; quiet, mostly unobtrusive... and nobody can do anything without them. Additionally, the odd masterpiece for the walk-in closet, and surprisingly ... coloured man made diamonds at 5-10 carats+ per stone before faceting. Hard-ass grandma has some of her ashes turned into pink diamonds, cut and set into favourite heirlooms, that will in-turn show up at many of life's on-going big occasions ..... Gotta hand it to her .... there's a certain amount of appeal to this , and it's a lot prettier than a gravestone! SD

Just a bump and update ..... 7:1 consolidation over the year, re-branded as ACX.TO, and trading today at CAD 6.32, up 28% YTD ... strong metrics and only 34.9 M shares outstanding. Quietly moved all of our ESI.TO into this over the year, for 2.5x more torque on US/CAD drilling for the same CAD investment. All goes well, 2026/2027 could be a very good year! SD

Same as every other native coin, ETH has two values; utility, and investment. For utility purposes it does many things well (token wraps), but competition has been steadily eroding its utility value. For investment purposes it was the primary diversification purchase in a crypto portfolio, but its weight in a portfolio has steadily declined as other options have progressively become available. The other choices were NFT, bitcoin farms, etc. ETH did well in an X/15/85-X portfolio; so long as the 85% in BTC rose in price, and the X% declined as the alternatives lost popularity. The presence of the CME options and futures markets in ETH ensured a high minimum weighting; and if those options were sold for premium, created a crypto convertible. While investment value was always greatly exceeding utility value, ETH just needed to continue being used within the development community. Fast forward; today BTC is also a diversifying asset within the cash allocation of a portfolio, and the crypto portfolio is more of a X/50/50-X allocation. Lot less benefit from BTC, and the alternatives are a lot better than they were. All else equal; with less rocket fuel available, ETH is unlikely to comparably perform as it has in the past. With a lot of implications around portfolio optimisation and mostly negative; going forward, most would argue that the existing $ in ETH is better spent as a new $ in BTC. The obvious overlay is a longer term ETH/BTC pair trade done via the derivative markets, with periodic settlements against existing holdings. Just a different POV. SD

Lets leave it as an object lesson on the immutability of blockchain .... make a mistake, you can't erase it! The real value to this technology is blockchain; BTC is just the payment app that demonstrates the use of blocks on a chain, and bitcoin protocol/smart contracts to chain them. Granted, it's a pretty damn good application! but its only a small part of the whole enchilada. It's new technology, there's nothing else remotely like it, and most all recognise that it is an industrial revolution. Just as cars replaced horse/buggy, and steel/steam replaced wood/sail/water, it's a leap of faith; but if you don't familiarise yourself with it, and it comes about ..... you could get badly burnt in the coming change. Lot of posters on this board were sceptics at first; today BTC is now a material portion of their portfolio, with much of it from rising asset valuation. What could have gone wrong ??? they hadn't learnt further, and remained poor. An added benefit is that some of the posters on this board, go back to near the beginning of BTC in 2008. Step away, put in your hours, then come back. SD

It's just not a DCF valuation; same as every other methodology, you end up with a number in a given time frame that you have to ascribe confidence to. As usual, one could be bang on with the value .... but way-off on the timing. Sadly, sh1te is still going to happen! SD

Incomplete phrasing; I would patent the cure and licence it out to one/two pharma's for royalties + stock. The cure becomes available to those who can pay, and I hopefully end up having to file a report anytime I trade the pharma's stock Decades later (after the patent expires) I work with the UN, a low cost knock-off is made available to the 3rd world, and my name goes up on the side of some building. Just a different PoV. SD