Dinar

Also, you need profits for "biological profits" which swing wildly. On average over the cycle numbers it does not look as undervalued, albeit still cheap. But you never see the cash.

You never see the cash. Look at it from 2000 onwards, and look at how much shareholders have received.

I had never thought that I would get a quote from Apocalypse Now on COFB. What a great movie!

As a father of three, if society wants people to have more children, it should make it easier. There should be high quality public schools for starters. NYC spends $40K per pupil per year and schools are awful. Similarly, we need good trade schools and good public universities that are are cheap. Not like University of Maryland today at $50K per annum. Also, change colleges/universities as well as school calendar to five weeks vacation and 47 weeks of school. Very big problem of what to do with kids during the summer and winter breaks. Also, university should not be 12 week autumn and 12 week spring semester. Do 4 12 week quarters per year, and condense college to two rather than four years. Cut welfare and social programs, in many areas of the country, like NYC, a single mother needs to make $150K per annum before she makes more money working rather than sitting on welfare. The higher the taxes to support the welfare state, the fewer kids normal taxpayers will have.

GPOR

I own Cranswick, Ashtead, Relx. Spirax Sarco, Diageo and Fever tree are getting close to me pulling the trigger. I used to own BATS, sold it and switched to PM.

SD, thank you for the suggestion. NYC has always been weird. 25% of the population on food stamps, yet tens of thousands of jobs go begging at $20+ per hour + bonus + health insurance + dental + 401(k). There was a line at a local food bank a year ago, with people pulling up in SUVs. When you get free fish, free meat, free eggs, very expensive tomatoes for free, et all, it corrupts the people. I will check in NJ when I will be there.

Greg and others, any reason why L'Oreal is not interesting to you? I have owned it for years so curious if people think that it is not a good investment.

Thank you very much for the heads up. A couple of questions if you do not mind: a) is it credible? 60% is an insane number? Is there chain in an area that had some one time events in May? b) Is it caused by ticket or number of occasions? c) Is it caused by people not having the money or not thinking that it is worth to pay? Sorry for the questions, this is just shocking versus what I see around me and what companies are reporting.

Greg, why Kering and not LVMH? (I have owned Dior since 2012 I believe.) I like Hermes as well, waiting for the right moment to pull the trigger? May be time is now?

Thank you Greg and thowed. I own L'Oreal, Campari, Heineken, Swedish Match and PM for the same reasons as you mentioned. I used to own Nestle years ago, time to revisit. Thank you again.

Greg, why do you like it? Do you think that the underlying is cheap or that the options are very cheap relative to the underlying? I have Nestle at 20x 2023 EPS, am I missing something?

Spek, there is a flaw in your argument. Ceteris Paribus, if inflation is 5% rather than 2%, then yes, nominal discount rate should be higher, but so should in theory be nominal growth in rates in cash flow. So in theory it should be a wash. The specifics get more complicated due to decline in value of tax shields attributed to depreciation, working capital impacts, benefit from debts being repaid in debased currency, and impact on consumers who may be hurt by higher inflation (inflation + tax rates can confiscate wealth.)

What do you think is the right price for Alphabet, Microsoft and Costco and why? Thank you.

Why do you like Skistar? Why Jungfraubahn? (I looked at it years ago.) Thank you.

With all due respect, I wonder how many of those statistics are accurate. There are a great number of people with very high cash incomes who report next to nothing to the IRS, so how do they affect the above statistics? A lot of these people have very high cash incomes (nannies, waitresses, barbers, doormen, handymen, electricians/plumbers/carpenters, cleaning ladies, dog walkers, tutors, private trainers, and the list goes on. Hell, in Manhattan there are cash only restaurants and some that give a 5% discount for paying in cash.) There are literally millions if not tens millions of these people in the US. The superintendent of our building has a $50K salary, yet he gets a free apartment, plus 20-40K a year in cash tips/kickbacks + odd jobs. He eats out daily, on a $50K official salary..., so of course he complains that he has no savings. Same guy flew business class to South Africa for a wedding. Why $1500 per month mortgage? This implies at 3.25% interest rate that prevailed for the last several years a $350K mortgage or $460K house price, assuming 20% down. Do people with $106K pre-tax family income really buy such expensive properties? Hell, even in NYC suburbs a year or two ago, there were plenty of 2-3 bedroom houses under $400K. Also, why 1000 per month in car payments? You can get a new Toyota Corolla for lease for under $350 per month, so that's 700 per month. Fuel at 34 mpg, implies 7K miles driven per month to get to $500 fuel bill at $4.20 per gallon. How many families drive 84K miles per annum? $200 cell phone plan? I have four lines with Verizon and we pay $120 per month including taxes and fees. May be the lower classes are hurting, but every employer that I talk to cannot find unskilled labor, and hard pressed to find skilled labor, and double digit wage increases are common place, so hard to believe. As for lack of savings, could it be because people keep spending beyond their means? Eating out regularly + buying apple watches and Nike sneakers when you make $25 per hour is not going to result in savings.

Based on what are you saying that the least well off are getting clobbered by inflation? If you are referring to retires, ok, I can understand, but wages for unskilled labor are 30-50% higher than in 2019, prices are not. Skilled tradesmen are getting very well paid as well.

Actually, if my math is correct, more like a 20% decline. Even year to date total return at the bottom was negative 18.5%, and that's including dividends. Without dividends S&P was down 19%+ at the bottom yesterday year to date and 20% from its high.

Greg, have you changed your opinion on AIV or you think that the other stuff is more compelling?

Wabuffo, what deflationary pressures do you see? Thank you in advance

Based on my understanding of Altria's Q1 2022 results and conference call, I do not believe that competition is heating up.

Bronte capital that owns 1% said in the blog post that they are unhappy about the rumored price, unless I misread the post. http://brontecapital.blogspot.com

Altria mentioned it on the call at least once if I am not mistaken that PM claims that Altria failed to uphold its end of the bargain and there is a dispute whether or not IQOS and its later versions will be sold by Altria. Also, you can also terminate Swedish Match salesforce and have Altria sell Zyn.

Yes, $15bn is an absolute steal. I am really unhappy about the price, the only saving grace is that I own PM as well. There should be tremendous synergies, particularly in distribution in the US. Fair price would probably be $25-30bn USD. Hell, analysts expect SEK 5.50 in EPS in 2024, and that's before recent USD strength. So 100 SEK offer is what, an 18 p/e pre synergies.

Parsad, I am in NY metropolitan area. Also, have three kids, ages 6, 3 and 1. Ship could be tough. I am actually thinking of cancelling my vacation. My fear is that whatever flight I end up booking with United, it will get canceled. Competing flights have doubled in price since I booked my original flight three months ago. I did email both Senators from the State of NY, my Congressional Representative and filed a complaint with attorney general's office of NJ. I emailed the CEO, chairman of the board and a couple of other executives after the first flight cancellation. I will email the entire board of directors tomorrow. If anyone has a good idea how to make United think twice about doing this in the future, I would very much appreciate the suggestions.