Dinar
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Everything posted by Dinar
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Thank you very much. Have you looked at Warsaw stock exchange? I own Tel-Aviv stock exchange and like exchanges in general.
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I own it and love it. In my opinion, the best management team in the business. Really smart buyers of assets and then able to grow them. It is less of an exporter though than Diageo or Pernord Ricard or Remy.
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Spek, I respect Soros as a great investor, and I appreciate what he had tried to do in Eastern Europe after the collapse of the Soviet Union. I do not appreciate his funding of people like Chesa Boudin and Alvin Bragg and other leftins. Crime in NYC is going up very sharply, at least in part in my opinion, caused by Bragg's refusal to prosecute criminals for many crimes, and end of cash bail. When I am worried about taking a walk in one of the wealthiest neighborhoods in NYC, I do not appreciate people who created the situation.
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Spek, what broker do you use to trade Poland? Any Polish names you'd care to share? What is the thesis on Deutsche Post? I would be careful with Porsche, after 2008 saga, I do not trust the families/management. Do you think that Akza can grow volumes?
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You can simply flare gas, which is what Putin will do rather than shut down wells. I am 99.99% confident that Soros is aware of this, the fact that he omits this fact once again shows that he is, while a great investor, not a person to be trusted in my opinion.
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Spek, which names do you like and why? Thank you very much.
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It is cheap. I prefer Remy. Remy is 20% more expensive on a multiple basis, but I think cognac will grow much faster than the spirits industry as a whole, so growth will probably be 1-3% per annum faster than Pernod. Too me, that is worth a 20% P/E premium. I also have owned L'Oreal and Dior for years and think that they are quite cheap here.
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Exporters look interesting - Remy Cointreau and Hermes come to mind, also Safran.
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Thank you, I agree with you. My biggest fear is lousy capital allocation and high SG&A. I guess there is always a chance that Jonathan Gray comes in.
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Greg, what do you think the company looks like in 2023? I think that 2023 will look as follows: a) Office + hotel + development gone b) Debt + repurchase obligations ($532MM) = $1.25bn on 12/31/2022 c) Existing stabilized multifamily = $140-$145MM of EBITDA d) Haus25 = $40MM rent roll and $28MM of EBITDA e) Park ridge = $5MM of EBITDA f) s/o + all opco units + options = 100MM g) Fair value of our interest in joint ventures = $250MM h) Corporate SG&A = $20MM per annum. Please let me know if I am missing something or you disagree
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I listened to a few, they are not bad. Tangen himself is absolutely brilliant.
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Thank you very much. While i see how this is incredibly cheap on a liquidation basis, my problem is the SG&A burn. I think that it could easily be $20-30MM per annum, and that significantly reduces NAV. It is also not in the CEO's interest to sell the company, and I am trying to figure out what is in Aharon Aviva Katz's interest.
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What about management comp, seems egregious? Also, are you not bothered by absence of insider buying? Also, do you like the Jersey City/Port Imperial assets or Park Ridge? Are these truly prime locations?
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It was a Communist organized famine, not Russian organized famine, there is a difference.
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I agree with everything that you are saying, I would add a couple of points: a) Demand is still down a couple of million barrels a day from 2019 probably caused in part by Chinese lockdowns; b) Iran and Venezuela have potential to increase production materially, may be as much as 1.8MM barrels per day from Iran, and a million or two from Venezuela (unless I screwed up my math.)
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Will Inflation Pressure Ease in the 3rd Q & 4th Q of 2022?
Dinar replied to Parsad's topic in General Discussion
Greg, with all due respect, inflation was not nil over the past decade, even if we measure it from 2010-2019. May be CPI reported 2% per annum, but that is not a reflection of reality. Housing, healthcare, education, food, and the list goes on compounded closer to 3-6% per annum. -
What do you think about nitrogen? I had thought that this was very well positioned for long term given that Euro capacity is permanently out of the market.
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Thank you, I already own both CP & CN. So will add potash
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SD, if I may ask, what fertilizer names do you find the most attractive or do you own them all? I am a tourist in the space, and I think that UAN seems very cheap. Thank you in advance.
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Just out of curiosity, why British, French or American response is shocking but Israel's is not?
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Why is Tobin's Q a good measure of anything? If I spend a billion dollars to build a hotel in Sahara that will never have any customers, is it cheap at 0.1x Q? If you can buy a monopoly, like an airport, at Q =3, yet a 10% free cash flow yield, is it expensive? Tobin's q implies that there is a perfectly competitive market for any and every business, and economy as a whole. What makes you think that it is actually correct?
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Why is the past a good guide to the future? You cannot consider CAPE on a historical basis without taking into account interest rates. Why should Class A real estate trade at 4% cap rate or 25x cash flow, (a forward measure) and equities at 20x average of the past decade?
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I thought that their EBITDA growth was 2% per annum excluding acquisitions, no?
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I think Ted is extremely good. As for Todd, I cannot figure out for the life of me why Buffett decided that he is good.
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A very good friend of mine has known Sokol for nearly two decades. (Sokol was an investor in the business that he started nearly twenty years ago and finally sold two years ago.) Sokol told my friend that he thought Abel was very good, that in his opinion, BRK is very cheap on sum of the parts basis, and the time to buy it is when Buffet dies and the stock sells off. Then it will be an insane bargain.