Spooky

So republicans don't like the constitution now? My brain hurts...

This is a real message from the President of the United States: “Based on Ontario, Canada, placing a 25% Tariff on “Electricity” coming into the United States, I have instructed my Secretary of Commerce to add an ADDITIONAL 25% Tariff, to 50%, on all STEEL and ALUMINUM COMING INTO THE UNITED STATES FROM CANADA, ONE OF THE HIGHEST TARIFFING NATIONS ANYWHERE IN THE WORLD. This will go into effect TOMORROW MORNING, March 12th. Also, Canada must immediately drop their Anti-American Farmer Tariff of 250% to 390% on various US dairy products, which has long been considered outrageous. I will shortly be declaring a National Emergency on Electricity within the threatened area. This will allow the US to quickly do what has to be done to alleviate this abusive threat from Canada. If other egregious, long time Tariffs are not likewise dropped by Canada, I will substantially increase, on April 2nd, the Tariffs on Cars coming into the US which will, essentially, permanently shut down the automobile manufacturing business in Canada. Those cars can easily be made in the USA! Also, Canada pays very little for National Security, relying on the United States for military protection. We are subsidizing Canada to the tune of more than 200 Billion Dollars a year. WHY??? This cannot continue. The only thing that makes sense is for Canada to become our cherished Fifty First State. This would make all Tariffs, and everything else, totally disappear. Canadians’ taxes will be very substantially reduced, they will be more secure, militarily and otherwise, than ever before, there would no longer be a Northern Border problem, and the greatest and most powerful nation in the World will be bigger, better and stronger than ever — And Canada will be a big part of that. The artificial line of separation drawn many years ago will finally disappear, and we will have the safest and most beautiful Nation anywhere in the World — And your brilliant anthem, “O Canada,” will continue to play, but now representing a GREAT and POWERFUL STATE within the greatest Nation that the World has ever seen!” President Trump, Truth Social, March 11, 2025

And that reason is....? No one seems to know! Is it Fentanyl? Is it bringing back manufacturing to the US? Is it making Canada the 51st state? Don't even think you guys know the reason....

Amen.

But why does the label matter if he is the right person for the job?

Based on what? Poilievre and the conservatives have no policy platform other than bashing Trudeau.

Let's all dial down the political arguments and get back on topic. No one is at war and both Canada and the US need to dial down the nationalistic rhetoric. Modern capitalism as an interconnected system in which economic development relies on interdependence among nations. There is no winner in a trade war and no chance that Canada can win against the US which is economically much larger.

This is where I've landed as well. I don't believe the plan will be implemented because the damage will be too high so putting a low probability of it materializing. I agree - there are too many competing camps in the administration and no unified plan. Not to mention the execution and completion of such a plan would take many years.

Nothing has been confirmed so far. Some people saying there is a "grand plan" and tariffs are one part of it but I'm skeptical. But it is interesting to think about the possible scenarios and learn something about how the global financial systems works along the way.

Agree with you. This is the main contradiction in the proposals - the US wants to keep the benefits of being the reserve currency but then also somehow weaken the dollar significantly to boost manufacturing. The dollar is strong in part because the US economy has been strong and there is high demand for US investment assets etc which is also a benefit since the US has the deepest and most liquid capital markets which makes the best companies in the world want to list in the US, creating a huge flywheel / advantage.

https://www.ft.com/content/c5b1c6b3-85a7-4e99-bcac-3d331f03640b Another scathing critique of these potential reforms in the FT courtesy of Alphaville.

A few months old now but this piece by Greg Jensen at Bridgewater was interesting: We Are All Mercantilists Now. https://www.wsj.com/opinion/we-are-all-mercantilists-now-international-trade-policy-protectionism-50743d8a?st=mvPZm9&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink

Sadly there is no longer a middle class. There is the top 10% that own assets and the bottom 90%. https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/stock-market-today-dow-sp500-nasdaq-02-24-2025/card/america-s-richest-10-now-account-for-nearly-half-of-all-consumer-spending-ShGXpvc48BvPigHjkKyu Top 10% now account for almost half of consumer spending.

Agree that these are huge issues - the top .1% of have accumulated so much wealth while most people are getting left behind. Isn't the solution to tax these people more rather than destroy the system? Also, on real wage growth, implementing protectionist policies isn't going to help that - we should be trying to drive the cost of goods and living down as much as possible. Personally, we should let China sell us solar panels, EVs and whatever else at ridiculously cheap prices.

Is it though? Since world war II the current US and global economic system has created untold amounts of wealth and prosperity.

Look I'm trying not to get sucked back into this discussion. Canadians feel betrayed by the US - our economy is much more reliant on you than yours is on us. Blanket 25% tariffs on all goods to our largest trade partner will cause a sharp and severe recession. Trump has ripped up the USMCA that was renegotiated under his last term. What value is a trade agreement with the US if you will just turn around and throw away decades of work integrating our economies? I am not a fan of us imposing tariffs but you comparing tarrifs on Chinese goods with what is happening between our two countries is just a false equivalence.

We don't have a free trade agreement with China like we do with the US. Also, while I don't agree with them, these are on Chinese EVs, similar to what you did under the Biden admin.

Thanks for sharing. It is a good reminder to try and block out the noise and focus on the long term.

https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/how-trump-is-getting-the-game-theory-wrong/id1743213122?i=1000697997006 Nate Silver talking about game theory related to tariffs.

Happy to. The house is on fire.

Have fun with your America First platform. The world is moving on.

Agree with everything you wrote. To me it does not seem like Trump's administration has any kind of grand plan or vision. They are just throwing things at a wall to see what will stick and try and get some political wins. They are also punching down and bullying weaker parties.

I wish BRK or CSU could own part or all of Epic, great business. Some of CSU's businesses compete with Epic. Don't see why the Epic shareholders would want to sell though!

Think he got one of the 30 day bans.