MattR

That I think was the strangest decision of all. He bought it and a few days later he sold it, no idea why - he said he realized it won't work out.

That is a great point. I recently heard a great talk from Robert Sapolsky, a behavioral biologist, that we like to think in buckets because it is easier - he gives several examples of people who lived in buckets despite being several of the most respected scientist of the 20th century. Everyone has the tendency to live in a bucket, and it is incredibly hard to break out of it. That is what I think ultimately makes Warren Buffet so successful. There were times he bought silver, where he bought cigar-buts, where he bought compounder and where he bought growth. But one has to work against the natural tendency.

I really enjoy his talks and his ideas, but as an investment manager he seems to find a new hammer every few months and now wants to nail every stock with it. There are some stocks in his portfolio like Shinoken that seem great, but looking at his track record, chances are high that he sells it before it becomes a great business.

Hello, Mohnish recently had a great Q&A at Indiana University: Lots of great insights and ideas there. I summarized the whole thing for those who like to read rather than listen: https://roiss.substack.com/p/takeaways-from-mohnish-pabrais-q I personally really enjoyed his outline and the search for cinch companies. I find it very hard to find cinch companies that are not expensive. Google, Costco, Apple and Microsoft are all great but they rightfully demand a premium. Anyone has found great companies who are cheap?

It was so hilarious.

Hello, I recently transcibed the excellent guest lecture from Li Lu. I also got the stock information charts from his chinese book. Hope you enjoy it. https://roiss.substack.com/p/li-lus-investing-masterclass-at-columbia

The second one and he said that in several interviews. He argues that if you don't have deep understanding of why you know something it will be difficult to hold when something comes up. It also hinders you to load up when it goes on sale, or when it is a sale and it isn't. If he bought something during the Corona crash, he had a good reason, but the price for him might already be to expensive by the time he had to file the appropriate documents. It also not show you why he sells positions and why he keeps them. He generally is a big advocate for independent thinking and not for cloning. Personally I think cloning has it's place as part of a portfolio - but it shouldn't be the main driving force behind it. I mostly use the fillings as ideas that have been pre-screened, not as gospel.

That is mainly why i decided to transcribe it. Pausing every few seconds and transcribing was easier than listening with him clearing his throat all the time. I hope you can get something out of it. Li Lu generally doesn't talk about his position. He doesn't like people cloning him and is an advocate for independent thinking.

For anyone interested, I transcribed the whole thing: https://roiss.substack.com/p/transcript-of-li-lu-and-bruce-greenwald?r=hv7lu&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&utm_source=copy

Thanks for the info on Both businesses. Being from Austria, I am also sceptical of Russia, but I still am invested in Gazprom. Will buy more British American Tobacco today.

Hey, do you have more information on both? Their numbers look great.

I am also directly short tesla, but  it is just a 2% position of my portfolio

Ticker Symbol is RYSAS. Down 10% today. If the situation in Turkey continues and Pabrai doesn´t sell, I will start a position. My strategy is to clone Pabrai here because there are no annual reports or financial statements in English, is all in Turkish Language Google Translate does a pretty decent job at translating the annual report pdf

Why do you sold BAM?

Not a 10% position for me, but I also bought it. Great company

They seem to have a lot of debt and not really high cashflow. Why did you decide to invest in them? I really like their watches so I would really love to know. My stated reason was to buy at the lower end of the historical P/B and P/average earnings and all of that, but clearly I was just looking for a 25% loss in a market where everything else has just flown up With the rise of smartwatches I can't see them having a great future. What would be the catalyst for the company to go back to it's higher valuations over the last 5 years ? I just wanted to have some more context to your investment since I am not able to find out how it would go back up again.

Yes it is scary how strong it is. I started to transfer a lot of my "growth" stock money into Berkshire, most of them reached valuations far beyond my targets and I think that most people currently underestimate the strenght of berkshires insurance and railway business

They seem to have a lot of debt and not really high cashflow. Why did you decide to invest in them? I really like their watches so I would really love to know.

I think we are near the edge in terms of the market being overvalued. All the indicators of the s&p 500 are in the all times high (schiller pe, buffet indicator) and that while the real economy is nowhere near to recover. Most of Europe is in a second lockdown of some sort, and even the US now sees steady growth of cases. I feel like the market is way ahead of itself and a lot of people will get burnt in the downturn.