changegonnacome

OK....but MAGA is about making a America great?......and what I just described diminishes America's alliance structure....it is ultimately what international relations strategist in Beijing dream about when they go to sleep - an America that is over time losing its regional leverage and influence in Europe and Asia....in great power competitions when your peer competitors absolute leverage and influence is shrinking on a relative basis yours (in this case China's) is increasing even if you do nothing. Donald Trump is aiding and abetting China's rise to peerage. The great irony at the heart of MAGA - is as it pertains to American dominance and influence over the international system over the medium and long term it is doing the opposite of what it says on the tin!

I dont think you ever internalized my suggestion that you look at NATO not as some drain on the US.....but rather as an organization that gives the US strategic leverage over Europe on important geopolitical matters where they might otherwise diverge.....NATO costs the US money but in doing so Europe is dependent on the US security umbrella it provides and in return the countries within it that actually matter (France, Germany, UK, Italy, Spain) sacrifice a considerable amount of strategic autonomy one can even say sovereignty on matters of trade, foreign policy etc etc.... I find it ironic that in an era when the US, for the first time since WWII finds itself with a worthy peer competitor in China that it would start to incrementally dismantle the strategic leverage it has over allies in Europe and Asia (its dumb)......I can assure you Chinese strategist in Beijing spend considerable mental energy trying to envisage ways to lessen the United States dominance & control in Asia and the European theaters.....its quite amusing to watch a US President weaken himself what China would give its left arm to construct and indeed is attempting to construct, in a modest way, with the belt and road initiative. I asked Claude to get the theoretical frameworks for you.....if you ever wanted to dive deeper and rise above Trump's, frankly 3rd grade strategic view of global alliance structuring that essentially strengthens the US's dominance now and over the long pull: "This perspective maps onto several overlapping frameworks in international relations, but the most precise term is the "binding" theory of alliances — the idea that alliances like NATO don't just deter external threats but serve to bind allies to the leading power's strategic orbit, constraining their autonomy and giving the hegemon leverage. A few related concepts that capture different facets of what's being described: Hegemonic stability theory is the broader framework — the US provides security as a "public good," but the price of admission is deference on the issues that matter to Washington. The security umbrella isn't charity; it's the purchase price of alignment. "Empire by invitation" is Geir Lundestad's term for how European states voluntarily subordinated strategic autonomy to the US after WWII, essentially inviting American dominance because the alternative (Soviet threat, intra-European rivalry) was worse. G. John Ikenberry's concept of liberal hegemonic order describes how the US used institutions like NATO to lock in its position — allies get protection and predictability, but in exchange they operate within a US-led institutional architecture that channels their behavior. And of course there's Lord Ismay's famous quip about NATO's purpose: keep the Americans in, the Russians out, and the Germans down — which is really the bluntest articulation of the control function. The irony the passage identifies — dismantling leverage over allies precisely when a peer competitor emerges — is essentially the realist critique of the current posture"

Yeah the 'tell' here for those watching is that Tweedle Dum and Tweedle Dee (Kushner & Witkoff) are back at the kids negotiating table where they always belonged.....Vance and more importantly Rubio & the actual REAL pros at State Department (' the deep state') who actually have expertise in negotiating bilateral international agreements have been inserted into the process to figure out a jumble of words that gives everyone the political 'win' they need here to go home. Its in everyone's interest now (probably with the exception of Israel) to sign a piece of paper and move on.

@cubsfan if your position is the Iranian regime is obliterated or on the way to being obliterated like all the others you listed. Probably not a good idea to then go on to list two groups - Hamas & the Houthis - who are very much alive and functioning even though huge amounts of military effort was very recently expended by the US and Israel attempting to completely obliterate them. Your mistake, common amongst politicians, is to completely over estimate the ability of military force/dominance alone to fundamentally change the reality on the ground sustainably over the medium to long haul in these places. You can have stunning military achievements in the short term for sure (G.Bush Aircraft carrier "mission accomplished' for example) but entrenched secular forces on the ground tend reassert themselves over the medium & long term. If Trump/Bibi's intelligence reports we're pointing towards a regime at a tipping point that could be pushed over the precipice by an air assault that had the added bonus of degrading their offensive ballistic and nuclear capabilities then it was worth a shot. They achieved the second leg of that twofer and the world is better off. However IMO the r/r has now inverted. The regime has locked down its hold over the population & demonstrated its willingness to pivot to non-conventional gorilla warfare in the region. The war is morphing into a conflict that the US with its 24 month election cycles, no popular domestic support for boots on the ground is fundamentally not setup to win. Trump has achievements here, time to the bank them. The damage to the regime is extensive - its time to let the domestic centrifugal forces inside Iran do the rest to potentially end the Islamic republic. The superior regime change scenario is always an organic one driven by the Iranian people themselves not external actors with self-serving motives.

Agree with all that......guess the only overlay to each outcome is at what cost? Everything has a price in blood and treasure (directly borne and indirectly borne). How much are the people of the US and Israel willing to 'pay' directly for those outcomes? How much are the people of the world going to have to pay to get the US and Israel those outcomes? & finally because everybody acts like Iran has no agency and no cards left to play here when they clearly do. How much is Iran going to make the region & the world pay for each of those outcomes? My sense is your "Good Outcome" is the optimal 'price' adjusted outcome here for all. I think the US and Iran would likely walk away at this price/outcome level. The wrinkle IMO is quite understandably, from their perspective and with the bit between their teeth, Israel is going for your 'better' and 'even better' outcome. They are willing to bear themselves and inflict upon the world the highest of prices. Why wouldn't they? Iran is an existential threat to them - one could argue Israel's walk away price is close to infinity and thats the problem here IMO and it comes down to how well Trump's manages his leverage over Bibi when the time comes. Luckily for Trump....Bibi has upcoming elections and a pre-requisite for the Prime Minister of Israel is having the blessing (& security umbrella) of the sitting US President. This makes me somewhat optimistic that Trump, in this particular window, has more control of our 'partner' than is usual.

My puzzle isn’t that hard - one of the statements below cant be true - pick one….or explain HOW all three are true at the same time: 1) Trump is a great President. (2) Iran is plotting to kill Mike Pompeo & John Bolton. (3) Trump removed Mike Pompeo & John Bolton’s federal security detail in January 2025.

I was accepting @cubsfan premise for the purposes of putting together a very difficult puzzle for him - think you missed that. The puzzle is: (1) Trump is a great President. (2) Iran is plotting to kill Mike Pompeo & John Bolton. (3) Trump removed Mike Pompeo & John Bolton’s federal security detail in January 2025.

OK Iran is out to kill the both. Let's accept that as fact for the purposes of this. So now that we've agreed that Pompeo and Bolton are on Iran's kill list - doesn't that just make Trump pulling Pompeo and Boltons federal security detail in early 2025 just about the most egregious, vengeful and reckless bordering on murderous thing a US President could do to former subordinates and men that served in his previous administration??? You say Trump is the finest President of our lifetimes - please explain how all this can be true at the same time? One more time - Trump is great President, Iran is hunting for Pompeo & Bolton heads AND Trump removed their federal security protection in early 2025. Square that circle for me. I really want to hear your explanation on this one.

Yeah its very impressive from Israel - Mossad are just elite level obviously. My basic understanding of the regime in Tehran is it enjoys 20% population level support with 80% against. Its a target rich ratio environment to recruit moles....and Mossad have them top to bottom it seems. Very impressive. However the decapitation strategy (as impressive as its been) somehow assumes that there is nobody to replace them or that you can continue to decapitate ad infinitum. The kill list be impressive here but the regime, in my view, is not some 100 person cabal....these groups are deep institutions with layers that run deep in Iranian society.... I mean I shudder to think but as a thought experiment - if you took out Trump, Vance would step in, then Mike Johnson and so on and so forth....would the US 'regime' disappear if you went 20 layers deep in a decapaitation spree....I dont think so....I think what you'd get is continuity and a US regime much like the Trump one except way more vengeful. If I was to guess on Bibi's strategy that I alluded to before - on how to get US popular support and therefore how to get US boots on the ground involved for a regime change war - one of his calculations must be continuing to decapitate such that he gets an Iranian leadership dumb enough and vengful enough to do something that changes domestic level popularity of the war in the US i.e. an attack on US soil or civilians. That is the trigger here. Maybe if you go 20 layers deep in Iran you get someone dumb enough to authorize that mission. We'll see.

Why isnt Bolton dead then?....Trump pulled his security in Jan 2025. He's easy peazy target. Security also pulled by Trump. If you had credible threat information that Iran was going to war with the United States. Wouldn'y you reinstate the secret service security detail of your former colleagues and former high ranking White House officials 'if' Iran was on jihadist war with the USA. If Iran was a threat to the USA. Last I checked I saw Bolton on TV yesterday and Pompeo somewhere else. Those silly billy Iranian's.....always trying to kill people with zero protection and always failing.

The PR exit strategy re: Iran looks to me like an "excursion" to Cuba - a strategic loss (dressed as a win), followed by a win = #winning I guess.

No walls....just exceedingly dumb execution by Captain Chaos. As I've said before he's got great problem diagnosis (Iran excepted), market based solutions to those problems that I tend to agree with and that appear to work on paper.....then at execution stage Captain Chaos takes over and gets in the way of his own people.....he's done it so many times now. I imagine working in the Trump admin is like looking out your kitchen window watching a bizarre yellow haired, spray tanned mole digging up the beautiful flower bed you just spent months thinking about and planting and the funniest thing is the mole is your boss and he asked you to plant the flowers!

So are you trying to tell me affordability might be become a midterm election issue? Imagine being the leader of a political party (Trump) with elections six months away that are key to carrying out your mandate and you get yourself into this mess - utter insanity. But imagine doing this at the urging of another countrys leader (Bibi) who also has key elections coming up even sooner - an election on which that leader either wins or his personal corruption trial effectively restarts. For one the Iran war (excursion ) is a political disaster. For the other the Iran conflict is a political & personal gift. One leader is playing tiddlywinks, the other chess.

I couldn't think of a world leader more persuasive than Bibi in setting out an argument or a position and I couldn't think of a world leader more susceptible to a carefully crafted influence & flattery campaign than Trump. Its just not a fair fight. Bibi has built a strategic masterpiece to get us here IMO - just think about his journey to where we are and how he shaped it: By pushing to scrap the JCPOA years ago in Trump's first term, Bibi eliminated IAEA oversight, turning Iran's nuclear program into a "black box" that allowed Israel to completely control the nuclear threat narrative. Threat inflation only works with black boxes. When Trump returned to office this paved the way for the Fordow strike - no doubt pitched as a surgical, one-and-done win by Israel, but strategically designed as a tripwire to lock the US but really Trump into the construct that Bibi had created for him - which is Iran is racing towards nuclear liftoff and it can't be allowed to happen. Of course once Trump had accepted that reality and committed to the Fordow strike Bibi knew he was only months away from what we have now - a full scale assault on Iran, the US ironically chasing somebody elses WMD stories this time. Bibi’s final, critical hurdle for total regime change is now engineering US domestic support for boots on the ground. This IMO is the final hurdle for Bibi. I have no idea how he does it but you can be assured he's thinking about it. I do think he knew that the Strait issue we're having now is an impossible rubix cube to solve and that it on its own has the potential to force Donald up the escalation ladder in ways he couldn't have ever imagined......even still the final piece of the jigsaw puzzle is US domestic support and that has a long way to go from here to there. I'm not sure how that changes but you can imagine a terrorist attack or the like is probably the most obvious catalyst - maybe Iran really is that dumb/genocidal to try it.

I’ll take compliments (even backhanded ones) where I can get them!

Trump cares enough to make up what other Presidents think and ‘supposedly said’ to him. dont think you read the story…or know the context…quick google will do it!

Good reminder that whenever Trump says somebody told him XYZ that conveniently fits with what he's trying to sell (in this case the war in Iran)...he's completely making it up. This time - he's been caught making up something a former President "told him".....so dumb its not even funny:

Yep right or wrong.....he's to be admired. No doubt about that.

$5bn is pocket change for these guys....if Jared promises to whisper in Daddy's ear that it's time to wrap things up and let the Middle East get back to the business of making money! I've always felt that the way this ends is the M.E. guys figure out a way to make the war ending a lucrative 'deal' for the Trump family.....Jared is one conduit....Thing One (Eric) and Thing Two (Don Jnr) are another.....they have plenty of other vehicles (PE, crypto, public listings) that are suitable. The tell for this thing getting wrapped up is he'll put Marco Rubio in over Jared and Steve.....it cant be that far away.

Not a minnow - Director of the National Counterterrorism Center and certainly privy to the intelligence information required to opine on the subject "I cannot in good conscience support the ongoing war in Iran. Iran posed no imminent threat to our nation, and it is clear that we started this war due to pressure from Israel and its powerful American lobby." No doubt the anti-semitic slurs are only minutes/hours away. Tucker Carlson knows him and said - “Joe is the bravest man I know, and he can’t be dismissed as a nut,” Mr. Carlson said. “He’s leaving a job that gave him access to highest-level relevant intelligence. The neocons will now try to destroy him for that. He understands that and did it anyway.” In some ways (even before the midterms) we are watching MAGA fracture......tough sledding for them at 2026 Mid-terms and then the Presidential in 2028.....the MAGA movement looks alot like humpty dumpty, all the kings horses and all the kings mean wont be able to put it back together again.....but as I've pointed out before Trump doesn't want the GOP to succeed without him, he doesn't want the MAGA coalition to continue beyond him, he wants the GOP to fail when he's gone......what will please his ego most is to see a Democratic President succeed him and so to the extent he can make that happen by undermining Rubio or Vance he will do that. He wants to be able to say that the GOP was nothing before he got there and its nothing after he's left. Remember its all about Captain Chaos and always will be he is a congenital narcissist.

Yep - its a pity POTUS has a surface level knowledge of Iran....anybody who realized half million Iranian's died fighting against Iraq to protect those borders relatively recently would never utter such words - there is likely not a family in Iran that wasn't touched by the loss of life during that conflict. About the dumbest thing you could say actually. As I've said a zillion times about Trump......some good ideas......insanely poorly executed to the point of sabotage.

Never said that…and the point of Trump’s new talking point (protesters have no guns, 32,000 dead, nobody that brave) which he is now repeating with the same frequency as the election was stolen mantra is well I assume his intelligence folks are telling him that the regime has actually tightened its grip further, that bombing the country incl. killing 150 school girls has created a rally around the flag phenomenon for the regime and so his dream of rising after the bombing stops has dropped off a cliff. Being kind to Trump let’s call it expectation management. Being unkind to Trump I think his new mantra is an admission that the war is already tracking to not result in its core strategic objective being met and he’s doing what he does best getting his excuses in early and often.

My favourite part of the last two days is Trump (without realizing the irony of it all I think) more or less mansplaining to the world the following two nuggets as if they amazing insights: - first is his truthsocial post from Saturday explaining that even a decimated crippled Iran can use asymmetric gorilla warfare to close the Strait at will "just one or two mines can close the Strait" - the second is how he's explaining to everyone today at WH in videos I saw that in Iran the IRGC has all the guns you see, and the protesters have none, zero in fact and the IRGC has said they will shoot to kill any protesters they see, and this after the IRGC killed 32,000 people just a few weeks ago.....he's going around saying the Iranian protesters are brave but they aren't that brave "nobody is" says Captain Chaos Of course those two 'insight' nuggets from President beg the question why start a regime change war you knew you we're going to lose. The other nugget was $12bn spent so far on the war after only two weeks - all to replace Ayatollah Khomeini with Ayatollah Khomeini

That, I'm afraid, is a distinction without a difference @73 Reds. But you know that already. You cant untangle Israel from the US.....sure Israel has some agency but it is structurally dependent on the United States for its security. The US underwrites substantially all Israel's actions in the Middle East - we provide the security umbrella under which they get to make deeply aggressive strategic choices - say like a country of 10m people (Israel) preemptively attacking Iran a country of 93m people (Iran). The financial aid, diplomatic cover (like UN Security Council vetoes*), and material support (weapons and munitions) from the US significantly reduce the risks Israel faces when engaging regional adversaries. If we removed or threatened to remove that security umbrella the algebra that underpins their military choices would invert 180 degrees to reflect the relative size and vulnerability of their position relative to Iran and other stakeholders in middle East. The US makes Israel's current strategic posture possible. We don't just have a seat at the table, we underwrite the building it sits in. Pretending otherwise is just political theater. When administration officials, like Rubio, argue that they we're going to act with or without us they are insulting the intelligence of their constituency. * the US has used its UN Security Council veto FIFTY plus times, FIVE-ZERO to block resolutions critical of Israel

Captain Chaos dropping truth bombs on truth social earlier - if only he had military and intelligence apparatus that could have told him this likely little pickle ahead of time? It’s not like he’d gone toe to toe with the lowly Houthis a few months ago in the same region and discovered it was impossible to stop them terrorizing US ships using military force alone, had thrown in the towel and signed a deal with them! Cant make this stuff up. https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/116227904143399817 “We have already destroyed 100% of Iran's Military capability, but it's easy for them to send a drone or two, drop a mine, or deliver a close range missile somewhere along, or in, this Waterway, no matter how badly defeated they are”