Stuart D

Thanks for posting.

I keep forgetting how long the timelines are in this business. 10+ years, wow.

Surprised there is no chat here on the supposed 500 billion barrel Russian discovery in Antarctica. It seems too big to be real, right?

Agree Valaris is looking good here. Fcf starting to roll in.

Between this shale call and their note on Saudi’s reserves, the supply side isn’t looking great. To balance the market it’ll need some more Venezuelan production (or maybe Argentinian shale?).

Nice. Increased BB. Seems like a good setup.

Woah, sounds interesting. Was the recency drop from $65 to $41/share due to some dividend payments or capital returns? edit: ok I’ve found the thread for this name. Looks like it was a big special dividend.

Yeah, great book. I listened to the audiobook after hearing the author being interviewed on the Grant’s podcast. Well worth a listen/read.

It’ll be interesting to see how Buffett responds to the “what do you think of the OXY acquisition” questions he’ll get next May at the AGM.

I listened to a yet another value podcast that reminded me of this post. Host Andrew was discussing the difference between a good investment idea vs a good podcast idea. The good investment idea can be a 40 seconds pitch, eg. this 50c dollar bill is being liquidated and immediately distributed. While a good podcast idea is often something complicated like Cable, with lots of discussion points, risks, strategies etc. A good reminder to myself to keep things simple.

Re: the previous Pabrai thread deletion Is there a way to keep the previous thread, whilst removing the posts of concern? I say that because the Pabrai thread was essential reading for anyone thinking of sending him money or even those of us who spent some time watching his videos. With the rest of the investment industry, (right up to Charlie Munger himself), swooning to MP, it was nice to have an alternate view here on CoBF.

8 x staff members seems like a lot: - 1 x CEO - 2 x vice presidents - 1 x office manager - 3 x Office assistants - 1 x office assistant Team leader I suppose maybe some of them are part time.

Well the central bank has interest rates at 12.25%, so I’m assuming that’s keeping a lid on equity valuations. And on the ROE side Peteobras is something like 12% of the index & they’ve been doing well recently. There’s probably a bunch of other commodity names in there (Vale perhaps?) that would likely have done well over the past couple of years too.

I found the Berkshire AGM’s on YouTube as a great place to start.

Nice. I’m surprised the spread is still so wide.

+1 Yeah, that was great. I’m going back to listen again.

Really enjoyed the Bill Chen YAVP interview. I still find it hard to get excited about a 7% cap rate, but I do like his point that some public co’s have long term debt fixed at 3-4%, so with any sort of rental appreciation the math starts to become more attractive.

Yeah, I kept looking but couldn’t find it, so I guess it’s deleted.

This may have already been mentioned, but following the Japanese companies that have recently started buying back shares might be a good pond to fish in. I googled Japan buyback screeners and one of the first results (quant investing.com) had the following table: I checked the first two names on https://www.kaijinet.com/jpExpress/ and the recent buybacks looked relatively large.

20k to $23m in 72 years assumes 10.28% inflation per year. I was running the numbers and it’s incredible how much of a difference tiny changes in the compounding rate affect the final number. eg. increasing from 10.28% to 11%, increases the total from $23m to $36m, and reducing from 10.28% to 10% takes it down to $19m.

Yeah that Odd lots Bill Gross interview was awesome. Another good one popped up this morning From Grant’s: https://overcast.fm/+TYmB5aFFw It features the author of “Numbers go up: inside Crypto’s wild rise and staggering fall.”

Agreed, this board is excellent.

A good article from Joe Aston at the AFR covering the recent manic moves from Twiggy at FMG: https://www.afr.com/rear-window/andrew-forrest-a-hard-act-to-follow-20230830-p5e0ry

https://cdn.fortescue.com/docs/default-source/announcements-and-reports/2599801.pdf?sfvrsn=11d660ea_6 Hard to believe this report is from a $60b company.

Yep, it’s definitely big here. The most watched (Australian) television event since Cathy Freeman won the 400m gold at the 2000 Olympics.