Stuart D

Nice. I’m surprised the spread is still so wide.

+1 Yeah, that was great. I’m going back to listen again.

Really enjoyed the Bill Chen YAVP interview. I still find it hard to get excited about a 7% cap rate, but I do like his point that some public co’s have long term debt fixed at 3-4%, so with any sort of rental appreciation the math starts to become more attractive.

Yeah, I kept looking but couldn’t find it, so I guess it’s deleted.

This may have already been mentioned, but following the Japanese companies that have recently started buying back shares might be a good pond to fish in. I googled Japan buyback screeners and one of the first results (quant investing.com) had the following table: I checked the first two names on https://www.kaijinet.com/jpExpress/ and the recent buybacks looked relatively large.

20k to $23m in 72 years assumes 10.28% inflation per year. I was running the numbers and it’s incredible how much of a difference tiny changes in the compounding rate affect the final number. eg. increasing from 10.28% to 11%, increases the total from $23m to $36m, and reducing from 10.28% to 10% takes it down to $19m.

Yeah that Odd lots Bill Gross interview was awesome. Another good one popped up this morning From Grant’s: https://overcast.fm/+TYmB5aFFw It features the author of “Numbers go up: inside Crypto’s wild rise and staggering fall.”

Agreed, this board is excellent.

A good article from Joe Aston at the AFR covering the recent manic moves from Twiggy at FMG: https://www.afr.com/rear-window/andrew-forrest-a-hard-act-to-follow-20230830-p5e0ry

https://cdn.fortescue.com/docs/default-source/announcements-and-reports/2599801.pdf?sfvrsn=11d660ea_6 Hard to believe this report is from a $60b company.

Yep, it’s definitely big here. The most watched (Australian) television event since Cathy Freeman won the 400m gold at the 2000 Olympics.

Thanks for posting - I liked the discussion on Texas controlling the oil price from the 1930’s.

I like doing one exercise per gym session. It keeps them short & focused.

Pbr floated the possibility of repurchasing shares. There is only ~$70b of market cap. The Government own’s ~$25b and fcf was $40b. The calls could be very attractive if they get aggressive on the buyback.

Yeah, the land angle could make sense. He did keep talking about oxy’s ‘position’ in the Permian. He’s probably also selling CVX to buy some sweet PBR - lol jokes.

I just re-listened to Buffett discussing OXY. I understand the part about 5mm bbl's going offline supporting the price of oil, but (like other's) I don't understand why that would entice him to invest in the Permian. Perhaps he'll explain the investment in e.g. 5-yrs from now, or perhaps by then the answer will be self-evident. edit: The other point I didn’t understand was him “not liking” the preferred’s being redeemed. What’s not to like? In a world of 5.9% T-bills, an 8% pref with zero upside isn’t that appealing. He’s receiving a 10% premium as they’re being redeemed. And most importantly, if he really didn’t like it, I’m sure he could negotiate terms and increase the mandatory pay back threshold from $4/share/yr to say $8/sh/yr.

Anyone looking at the Beetaloo basin in the Northern Territory, Australia? Just approved for fracking and the gas reserve estimates are very, very large. I’m reading 500T cubic feet vs the Permian’s 300T. Seems too big to be true.

Thank you!

If Biden wants to refill the SPR in the future at lower prices, could he just buy futures, which, due to backwardadtion are priced lower?

Yes, I think the same (would we know Munger's name?) if the below merger-arb fell through. From the Snowball: "Munger did enormous trades like British Columbia Power, which was selling at around $19 and being taken over by the Canadian government at a little more than $22. Munger put not just his whole partnership, but all the money he had, and all that he could borrow into an arbitrage on this single stock."

Yeah, I think it will come down from a 60% payout ratio. The minimum is 25%. My guess would be somewhere in the 35-40% range.

How long do you have to wait?

yeah, my brokerage won’t support it either. I agree the trade (buying the warrants and selling the calls) is interesting.

Russia to cut oil output by 500,000 bpd in March https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/russia-cut-oil-output-by-500000-bpd-march-2023-02-10/

Going long Glencore would be another.