Castanza

Happy Thanksgiving

There is no reasonably informed individual who thinks crypto or blockchain won't be a part of the future. That's a completely different topic then "but the BTC dip". There is no way to determine any margin of safety with crypto. There is very little oversight and regulation meaning the chance of losing everything in a scam is well above non-zero. It's a trading vehicle currently and nothing more.

Smidge of OXY

Does SEC regulated mean anything these days?

What exchange are you using from here on out?

What are your thoughts on exchanges moving forward? It seems without oversight the centralized ones are a no go. Will people deal with the decentralized exchanges? They are more involved to use and I see that as a barrier to TAM in terms of adopters. Also could pose liquidity problems. Lastly I wonder how the price of BTC would look if we were able to walk back what these exchanges were doing. It's definitely possible they were manipulating the price heavily no?

I think this is going to take some time to shake out. Look at the proof of reserve shenanigans going on with some of these other exchanges. CEO of Binance "If an exchange have to move large amounts of crypto before or after they demonstrate their wallet addresses, it is a clear sign of problems. Stay away." This planed FUD against his competitors and especially crypto.com" 11/16/2022 Same CEO does exactly that ^

Lmfao There is probably some kid out there running a lemonade stand that has more corporate governance than this 30B monstrosity.

+1 Tikr

"FTX Employees submitted payment requests through a chat platform, which were approved with personalized emojis." There is no official employee roster so Ray cannot find who actually worked for the company. There is also no records of major business decisions as SBA used auto deleting messages.

I can see that argument as well but that will take more willingness from the regulating bodies to thresh out. I can see them being lazy and in turn stifling the industry. At least from the “investment” / speculation side which is what 90% of retailers care about currently.

Well they definitely have the attention of regulators now. The fact is this is a major headwind moving forward for crypto in general. Why? Because what politician is going to be comfortable with these exchanges moving forward? I don’t think it’s out of the realm of possibility they all get shut down. Crypto bulls might say, well what about the REAL decentralized exchanges. Does it matter? You have to explain that to a body of curmudgeons in the government who are now more apprehensive than ever. That’s going to dry up liquidity and accessibility to the average person. The technology is irrelevant at this point imo. There are billions gone into thin air. Crypto is at odds with the greater direction of society. It embodies personal responsibility and accountability while governments around the world move towards more control and more safety nets for their citizens. People vote for more safety nets (many of the same people speculating with crypto) which is even more ironic. If politicians ever needed a good excuse to put an end to the crypto era on the securities/investment aspect….we’ll….this is it. A whole host of new questions are now being asked. Open Source is being questioned at its core, because at the end of the day, something that is open source can still be mismanaged, misused, miscalculated, or bugged. It can still cost people equity in some form. The crypto space has basically been using that to remove culpability from these “projects”. Someone or some institution is going to demand responsibility and accountability. @Blugolds11 My wife has a colleague who’s husband was putting damn near 50% of their income in NFTs. The husband liquidated the wife’s 401k and started an LLC making NFTs. They’re in their late 30’s have two kids and still have student debt. She’s a nurse and he has a lawncare business.

I was listening to a few podcasts today while traveling for work. Idk if it’s just me but my God the whole system seems likes it’s bubble gum and shoe strings. Even the journalists covering this stuff sound like complete shills. The big names all have nicknames and are viewed as Gods. The terminology surrounding the industry, insider “beef” between different founders. It’s insane. The complete lack of due diligence by anyone is astounding. It’s bizarro world. Memes meet finance.

For those who follow the crypto markets what’s the thoughts on how far this spreads? How many other exchanges will collapse? What happens to liquidity if Genesis goes under?

hmm Also Hmmm

I knew you were going to post this vid but it's likely cherry picked and who would take a "gold bar" from someone on the street? It's an issue of source and trust of that source. Money needs to be durable for long long periods of time. So even if it takes 50 years for BTC to be cracked it's still a real issue. We have 30yr notes with USD. Could you do that with any confidence using BTC instead?

What happens when BTC encryption gets broken by quantum computing in 10-20 years? BTC relies on something where gold does not. It simply exists and on top of that human psychology has adopted it over thousands of years. Go talk to some average Joe and tell him you will give him 1BTC for 50c on the dollar cash. Tell him that anyone can clone BTC but the one you're giving to him has value because it's the most used currently. Think he's taking the deal? Now take that man to a local coin shop and say I'll go in 50/50 with you on 20k worth of gold coins and let you keep them all. Think he's taking that deal? Average people do not understand it and that is a MASSIVE problem. Why does that make it valuable? Most people will go through life and never have USD taken from them other than through inflation. Security is overrated if there are effective systems in place to claim what was taken from you. USD stored in a bank provides exactly that. The US government will likely get rid of physical cash in the next 25 years imo. Everyone will more to digital USD and it's very possible that it is it's own form of crypto. At that point, the use case for BTC goes out the window. All it would take is the US govt to say "exchanging BTC for USDcrypto is illegal" and those transactions would be visible on the blockchain. This system designed to facilitate "freedom" will in time be turned on it's head and used by govts to monitor transactions closer than they ever have before. People will be begging for cold hard cash in 50 years. 87,000 new IRS agents with a bead on small cash transactions is already happening. On the flipside of that how can anyone claim BTC is replacing Gold when it has only 15 years (10 relevant) of adoption? Everything but Gold failed because it was easily found or replicable. And I'm not saying Gold will be it forever. But I have no confidence that BTC will be "it" either. I am a believer in blockchain in general for its utility....I just don't see us getting from point A (institutional backed currencies) to point B (code with no oversight and no "face" behind it). If we see anything like this in our lifetimes I think it will simply be the US Government saying "come exchange your cash because we have implemented a digital token of USD." And that will be that. That is a very large assumption....most of that sounds like complete nonsense (virtual real estate in a limitless world? Why would I want my avatar to get a spa treatment when I could get one myself in real life? ) but ignoring that...."when will we be there?" As of now BTC is an "investment". If BTC hit 1m tomorrow, everyone would sell except Saylor. Why? Because they don't value it and can't put a face to it and see institutions, militaries, industries behind those BTC like they can with dollars. BTC tries to ignore human psychology imo. At the end of the day the vast majority of people want to be governed and want to have leadership. BTC removes that and replaces it with "compute power". So when and how does BTC move from an "investment" to a currency? Someone has to facilitate that step over that threshold. Likely a government.

What gives BTC value? scarcity? Because in the crypto world, scarcity is no longer scarce. Anyone can stand up a new coin and call it valuable. Everything hinges on psychological adoption over time. It's the same reasons a Van Gough painting holds value vs some other one off LSD fueled finger painting hanging on your local coffee shop wall. BTC has to accomplish psychological adoption of the masses to hold value. I think most people underestimate how difficult that is.

Did the same exact thing except I sold SMH. Was able to pick up some TSM after hours when WB news came out. Haven't added to INTC since my initial buy last year. Looks like a good amount of insider buying at these levels.

Yeah, still some lingering supply chain issues and the chicken margins might come down but who cares in the long run. Revenue is still solid and overall margins look fine. They managed through a terrible few years and now are trading at a discount to peers. Yeah meat sales are down across the board but so is pretty much everything else in retail/consumer. 5-6x looks cheap enough to me to slowly build a position. Dividend looks safe sitting at a 15% payout ratio.

"Just around the corner."

Cocaine is a helluva drug

Shapiro won the go race here in PA. Pretty big on increasing regulation and reducing the land that is allowed to be drilled. Guess we will see, energy can do well under both parties no? We saw the gas boom under Obama. Maybe that was just luck of timing and technology.