Castanza

Agreed...beating yourself up over past decisions is a good way to negatively influence future decisions as well. Instead you should analyze why you made that decision and if you still agree with the reasoning then move on. If you don't then adapt and carry on. Just getting started with investing I bought NVDA 50 shares at $30.xx and 100 shares of AMD for $8.xx....I sold Both about a year later for $68 and $21 thinking I've made out like a bandit. Which I did! But also missed a Hell of a lot more growth on those tiny positions. So from then on I mostly just buy and hold. I do sell here and there but I'd almost rather take the risk of a company going to zero than missing out on upside 5,10, 15 years down the road. Exactly how I view my small positions in INTC and TSN currently. In my generation I think too many people use money they need to live to invest and this greatly impacts their decision making. I see a lot of people prioritizing investing over paying off student debt, having an emergency fund etc. Couple that with their subscription based lifestyle that has to constantly be fed and there isn't much "I don't need it" money left over to invest. It's more, I don't need it today but I might next month; so at the first sign of trouble they hit that sell button.

I am very skeptical of BTC and have low confidence that it will be able to stand if government forces in the US deem it unsavory. However, it's the best financial tool that exists outside of the "system" and I think that will/could have some utility in the future. Take a look across the pond and the CBDC that is being proposed. Expiration dates on savings, push a button limitations on what you can buy and when you can buy for people the government decides needs those restrictions (kids and mentally unstable....and?). Nobody is saying sell stocks to buy BTC. At least not on here. A 1% position is prudent imo. Still 90% stocks and plan on being that way for as long as I can see.

Forever? Economies don’t exist in vacuums. The Piper always gets paid in the end….

Have to admit....anytime I hear Munger, Dalio, Dimon or any other "financial expert" pop off about Bitcoin with a seemingly uneducated opinion it just makes me want to buy a bunch.

Agreed, I used to be a believer that it was happening at a large scale but I don’t buy that anymore. Maybe for luxury goods that can be manufactured and sold at higher costs with better margins? Not sure. It would definitely have to be able to support Union wages etc. Labor costs have to be balanced in order for the shift to happen imo. Until the lower class in Thailand or Vietnam is on par with Union workers here in the US. I don’t see how it will ever change in any meaningful way. The industrial boom in the US worked sort of because the lack of logistics. Economies were more localized. Once there was reliable abundant long distance shipping at reasonable rates it opened the rat race for the lowest wage work force.

Does anyone follow the “de-globalization” trend we keep hearing about? I’m not really convinced we will see meaningful jobs come back to the states. Seems way more likely the factories will just get moved to the next hospitable third world country.

haha very nice! Something tells me you're getting in at precisely the right time

@GregmalNice looking house, congrats! Is this a second house; or a moving to Florida full-time house?

"Don't trust the CIA, but trust what Russian Propaganda says".....

Sometimes you have to embrace the market irrationality with some healthy skepticism. Too much of one or the other leads to poor returns. The world does not exist in a textbook. What @changegonnacome said makes sense from a technical/fundamental standpoint. But it doesn't capture the other side of the coin "sentiment, emotion, hype, motives" that can also act as market moving influencers or more accurately exacerbate, draw out, delay, or negate expected moves in the market. The market moves on sentiment, fundamentals and technicals. There is a bit of irrationality behind all of them in my opinion.

Well it doesn't really matter if you agree or disagree. What i wrote was a simplified version of the US's Counter Insurgency Field Manual. It's what the West is planning for and has been silently implementing from Day 1 of the invasion. We have 20+ years of research on Counter Insurgency and have a CIA/SF that is pretty damn good at implementing and establishing Insurgencies. Russia's goal was a quick take over and it failed. So now they are in an uncomfortable situation where they have to expend more resources than they want to and basically at a standstill. The exchange of shells won't go on forever and is not an end al be all strategy for either side. Russia has to push in further and install leadership in areas to maintain control. Ukraine either has to expel Russia or make it a living hell for them to exist there and deplete their resources, manpower, and will over time. The West is clearly supporting the conventional war aspects now and planning for the coming insurgency that's inevitable should Russia try to hold Ukraine. https://news.yahoo.com/cia-trained-ukrainian-paramilitaries-may-take-central-role-if-russia-invades-185258008.html https://mwi.usma.edu/war-books-building-counterinsurgency-library/ If you haven't read Petraeus's book I recommend it.

@no_free_lunch IEDs are probably the single most effective tool used in war over the last 80 years outside of the Atomic Bomb. There is a reason the US DOD had to spend billions figuring out ways to over come them. It creates an almost untenable situation for the invading force. Simple IEDs built by people with no education, no money, and nothing but an AK47 some flip flops and a walk-in talkie stopped histories most powerful military in its tracks. So if a military with unlimited resources couldn’t stop and insurgency how is Russia a country with scarce resources, short supply of munitions s, poor training and a crippled economy going to do it when the other guys have western backing (seemingly unlimited funds). Counter Insurgency has almost never worked. (Columbia is the “bestish” example of it working) 10-2=12 Things Russia will need to be able to do if they wish to maintain control of Ukraine and overcome an insurgency. 1. ⁠Establishment of a local ally as a power broker. For this to succeed it is important to be flexible with who you talk to (old enemies and ideologically not palatable actors can make do). Having a potent local ally is better than having “ideologically clean” one. 2. ⁠Divide et Empera. Majority of countries have competing factions/ethnicities. Exploit old grievances and creat new ones so that those factions seek support from invading force. 3. ⁠Radicalize opposition (by elimination of moderate wing) so it has less support from inside and outside. 4. ⁠Quickly provide well being and efficient administration on occupied territories while denying it for the uncontrolled ones. 5. ⁠Support local allies without interference - locals can rule locals better than anyone, so don’t impose your values when it’s unnecessary. 6. ⁠Creat image of perpetuality of current administration so that local population can’t see any alternatives. 7. ⁠Engage and integrate local armed formations into central command so that potential insurgents are on your payroll and somewhat controlled. This is not going to be an easy thing to do and I’d say the odds of western powers allowing it are slim to none. Ukraine is already littered with mines and IEDs. Problem currently is that it’s very poorly organized. In fact Ukraine is not even sharing information regarding location of mines with troops as they rotate in and out. The US has recognized this (at least some have) and there are a handful of groups/organizations that are dedicated specifically to this task. Night Vision is also a huge advantage for Ukraine and will continue to grow as they get more of it. It was the US’s biggest advantage in Iraq. Outside of a few groups the majority of Russian troops are not issued nvg. At the end of the day, you can’t kill your way out of a COIN environment. It simply doesn’t work. Russias military is pretty much equipped to only do this at this point in time. So no I think it will be impossible for Russia to maintain any type of control over Ukraine even if they turn every city to rubble. Parts of it on the Eastern front? Possibly….but that could simply come about by negotiations. But hey, you’re right in wrong because 1945 or something like that…..

History is not always indicative of the present. There is also a significant amount of Russian citizens fighting for Ukraine...Russia is not the same as the USSR. This is a ridiculous comparison. Watch some interviews and listen to some podcasts with people who are there and are seeing first hand accounts of what's happening on the ground. No offense to you....but I will listen to the opinions of US SF (who are the best in the world at what they do insurgency guerilla warfare, unconventional unit tactics, and training up native troops) then your desire to constantly compare this to WWII or what happened in Chechnya. Just a month ago you were lambasting everyone on here for saying the West shouldn't try to negotiate a peace deal. You were saying "The Ukrainians will never give up they will fight tooth and nail till the end." Now all of a sudden you're just coming to your own conclusion that Russia is going to capture and execute 100k Ukrainians and break their resolve.

Without Western support, sure...but does that look like it's going away anytime soon? Highly doubtful. This is an opportunity the West cannot pass up. Russia has been a thorn in the side of NATO for a long time, and this is the opportunity to put an end to that. I think it's pretty clear what the West wants. Chechnya is like 6k square miles tucked between Russia and Georgia. Ukraine has 230k square miles with bordering NATO countries. That is an Apples to Oranges comparison. Russia does not have the resources or supply chain/logistics network to support that. The Russians trying to maintain power will look more like Rome trying to conquer Germania. Russian regulars do not have the will power for that. Most (not all) of the war crimes being committed have come from the conscripts and mercenaries so I highly doubt you'll see Russian regulars mass executing 100k people. More and more US Special Forces troops are going into Ukraine through private institutions and charities. Ukraine is becoming more and more tactically, medically, and organizationally sound by the day. Couple this with the growing number of Chechens (who are extremely capable) fighting for Ukraine and you have a better recipe for success.

The West loves a good proxy war. Taking full advantage of the situation to make sure Russia ends up as a third world country. The West will drag this out as long as possible. Everyone knows, even if Russia manages to win “militarily” there is no chance in Hell they would ever be able to hold Ukraine. The insurgency would be untenable. Also starting to look like the Chechens might seize the opportunity for some revenge. What a bizarre conflict. You’ve got Chechens fighting for Russia and for Ukraine. Then you have the awkwardness of former US troops fighting for Ukraine working with the very Chechens they saw in conflict in Afghanistan.

What do you mean with a back wall? I just built one with the Uplift v2 frame. Built my own top for it. Seems really solid so far. For cable management you can just get a Startech 2x2 tray and screw it to your top. Better than what comes with most desks. https://www.startech.com/en-us/cables/ad2x2

I'd say if that's the case then that person needs to re-evaluate their expenses. Likely they are living well above their means. Prioritization is a choice imo. I'm 29 took an additional 2 years for college, worked full time during the last two years, paid off my student debt, paid cash for school, built an emergency fund, bought two vehicles and paid them off, purchased a house and recently paid it off. I still invested a good amount of money in that timeframe. Now I have zero debt and can really hammer the investing moving forward. My wife and I have relatively average salaries and come from working class families who couldn't afford to pay for our school. I have colleagues who also have wives as nurses and still don't own homes and say they don't have much invested, yet they seemingly spend hours every day on Robinhood. Frankly I don't understand what they're doing lol.....shockingly this is far more common than one would think. To each their own, but I think we will look back in 30 years and see how bad it was to push everyone in their 20's to jump in the market and make that their priority. Most people don't have the stomach for it, and that leads to poor performance. Sure it's just anecdotes....but they add up when you hear all your friends who don't own homes and still have 70k in student debt talking about swing trading r/wsb stocks.

Best way to overcome this is invest what you don't need for the next few years minimum. A lot of people in my age range seem to have FOMO when it comes to stocks. Many prioritize investing over an emergency fund, house maintenance fund, etc. I was like this my first two years investing as well. It leads to irrational decisions based on the news cycle that day. In fact a friend messaged me yesterday and said he dumped his GOOGL position that he bought like a month ago citing the new Anti-Trust case. A month ago, he thought it was undeniable cheap with a "long-term" perspective.

Added a little PCYO today and yesterday

Lyle McDonald's book The Ultimate Diet 2.0 is a really solid book if you're interested in a really tough but short duration (6 weeks) workout/diet plan for losing weight. I've been using it pre-summer after my typically "bulk" the past three years and it works well. No gimmicky nonsense, just a purely biological scientific approach. Might not be great if you're > 25% body fat. But to get sub 20% down into the low to high teens for those abs I personally haven't found a better program. Also fits pretty well into a typical 9-5 work schedule.

The Taliban was quick to find and execute many individuals who were trained at relatively high levels by US SOF. The ones that remain are likely in hiding or trying to get out of the country to the US. Basic Afghan infantry trained by US forces are very limited in skill and knowledge. Generally this is due to a trust issue. I would not consider them a meaningful force. Most basic infantry will fight for whoever gives them the best paycheck. A friend of mine who is a Green Beret and knows individuals who worked on Operation Pineapple Express said they are still working on getting out counterparts that they worked with. I would not count on many of these individuals fighting for Russia. In fact, from what he told me, many of the highly trained Afghan SOF individuals that evaded Taliban capture have been doing exactly what US SOF units do....train individuals for guerilla warfare. People underestimate the change in the Afghan people. One, many people had a small taste of what freedom can be like. Two, there are millions of individuals that are educated now and no longer living in the dark. Three, people still overestimate how much control the Taliban has. Most people still don't know that the Taliban pre-staged pictures, scenes, etc. in key locations that they knew the press would be to make the world think they completely took over in a matter of days. Worked like a charm and Western Press Outlets ate it up. From what I've been told, there is still a lot of resistance brewing in that country. Also just want to point out how incompetent the US Govt was in all of this. Kamala Harris called leaders from Operation Pineapple Express asking them to get out individuals she deemed important. Operation Pineapple is a self funded organization primarily made up of former SOF members who still have contacts in country. You have the VP of the United States, who has access to Delta Force asking someone else to do her dirty work without providing any funding from the US Government. That is laughably sad. _______________ So in short, I highly doubt that basic infantry with minimal training from US troops and that has an allegiance more determined by their own personal survival will bring any significant capacity to Russian forces. Not meaningless, but turn the tide capable? I doubt it.

I think the closer something like this gets to implementation, the more it will drive up the price of BTC until govt says something directly against it.

How does the IRS view forks? Do they consider it the same class as an equity spin off which is typically tax free?

I like dividends in my non-taxable accounts and buybacks in my standard brokerage.