Castanza
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Where Does the Global Economy Go From Here?
Castanza replied to Viking's topic in General Discussion
You’re only as useless as your ability to search YouTube for “How To” vids -
Where Does the Global Economy Go From Here?
Castanza replied to Viking's topic in General Discussion
Yeah that’s understandable, but St Louis is still magnitudes better than towns between 20-80k people. And even there you will find opportunities etc. I think if you’re willing to give up on top 5 city living you probably have an idea of what to expect. You probably aren’t focused on having a 1% career etc. My neighbors are good examples. She went to U of M then Grad at Harvard. He went to University of Stanford for Mech Eng. Both are probably making close to 120k+ each. Both grew up in Chicago and come from money. But the town I live in is like 40k in pop and you can find McMansions for 250k-300k. They seemed to have loved life here. Different strokes for different folks I guess. -
Where Does the Global Economy Go From Here?
Castanza replied to Viking's topic in General Discussion
This is only a problem in the most expensive areas. All of the below cities are very reasonable places to live. Plenty to do, plenty of education options, plenty of entertainment and food options. I know people who live in the majority of the cities listed below and most of them have a combined income around 100k + or - 20k. All of them have homes that are probably much nicer than what you would get for 600k+ in pricey areas. Average home price in... Columbus = 240k Cincinnati = 230k Savanah = 278k Buffalo = 216k Pittsburgh = 235k San Antonio = 300k St. Louis = 177k Lexington = 285k Indianapolis = 228k The list goes on. Then you have plenty of cities like Nashville that are mid 3-400k. There was an OddLots podcast maybe two-three months ago where they discussed housing affordability and how generally it's a myth that housing is "unaffordable" in the majority of areas including tier 2 cities. Usually the divergence from the norm is a couple percent on total price. -
Where Does the Global Economy Go From Here?
Castanza replied to Viking's topic in General Discussion
You can't talk about everything you mentioned without discussing expectations of millennials. Personally I think their expectations are way off. You can go back and look at polls taken around the 2016 election when UBI was a hot topic. Discussions around amounts and what "normal living expenses" covers. I remember reading a few different ones but one that stuck out was how they thought it should cover going out to eat 1-2 times a week, or going to the movies 2 times a month etc. Just going from memory but I believe there was a monthly clothing budget etc. Personally, I view all of those as extras which you choose to engage in as a lifestyle choice. But it cemented imo the underpinning philosophy that Millennials largely view the world in terms of conveniences and inconveniences. How does this hinder me from doing this. Why do I have to deal with XYZ? Look at the student loan forgiveness thresholds. 125k individual and 250k couple? Jfc, I was making 45-80k (yr 1-4), wife was making (55k-70k) , paying for my school, paying off some past student loans, paying off my wifes student loans, bought two new cars, funded two Roths every year, and still saved money. Went out to eat probably once a week and a few vacations here or there. Never felt like the budget was "tight." What the F&*% do people spend their money on? To me it shows priorities and expectations of people are way tf off. Personal accountability and responsibility are at all time lows. @TwoCitiesCapital Also not saying you're wrong with the end thinking millennials probably share. Everyone is a product of their environment. Yup this hits the nail on the head. It showcases the priorities and expectations of most millennials. It's a gotta have it all, gotta have it now generation. Not being able to own a house is more of an inconvenience because it means they will pay more in rent which prevents them from doing other things. Where with prior generations it was seen as a point of pride. Now it's I need this subsidized so it doesn't cut into XYZ activity or lifestyle choice. -
Probably right to a degree on GS. B of E might be a better number to look at. But that's still trending in the wrong direction if correct. Does anyone truly understand any of this?
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Bank of England is projecting 13% and Goldman projected up to 22%
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Don't know. but you have to admire? respect? the commitment to scorched earth policy. UK is the second worst economy next to Russia with a projected 22% inflation and energy bills that are now 3x what they were ($3549 now). 8 out of 10 factories is in danger of going bankrupt and corporate bankruptcies were up 80% across the board last month.
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Are we not trying to do exactly that?
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Unless China somehow defies typical tech advancement and brings competitive chips to market I don't see how there won't be some type of conflict in the future. Whether that's 10,20, or 50 years (or never) from now who knows. But we've had the Oil wars already and silicon is the next most important thing to secure global dominance (imo). Either way, not something I spend a lot of time thinking about. Plenty of ways to make money in any environment. I think Free Trade is much different than Globalism. The later is a pipe dream imo. But also not really sure what you consider or lump into Globalism. Either way not important lol. As far as BABA and Chinese tech companies go, it could be a big deal if China can not figure out their own tech to keep them competitive. That being said Intel has the freedom/ability here but seems to be squandering it with poor business decisions haha
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The Daily Upside SEMICONDUCTORS China Claps Back After US Curbs Nvidia’s Exports All the chips are on the table now. China’s biggest tech firms face a murky future after the US government on Wednesday told Nvidia to halt all China-bound exports of two computing chips crucial to developing artificial intelligence. Experts say the move is a major escalation in the two nations’ battle for tech supremacy – and could severely limit China from advancing its AI capabilities. Code of Semi-Conduct Tensions are mounting between the world’s two most powerful nations as Beijing continues to menace Taiwan, home to much of the world’s semiconductor production. The US’ latest salvo is barring sales to China, Hong Kong, and Russia of Nvidia's high-powered A100 and H100 computer chips, which are often employed in massive data centers to power advanced AI natural language and image recognition tools. Washington says the action was primarily designed to keep American technology from being used to advance China’s military prowess. But its impact is also expected to strafe China’s biggest tech companies: • China’s trio of top cloud computing companies, Tencent, Alibaba, and Baidu, all use the A100 chip for cloud computing and storage services, as well as various AI-powered data analysis tasks. Other top Chinese customers include BYD Auto, IT giant Lenovo, and cloud provider Inspur. • In total, China and Hong Kong sales accounted for over 25% of Nvidia’s $27 billion of revenue in fiscal year 2022, and the new rules will cost Nvidia about 10% of long-term future revenue, Truist Securities analysts wrote in a note. Most Chinese firms will now have to patch together multiple, lower-end Nvidia chips in lieu of the high-powered A100 and H100 chips. China is not happy about any of this. “The U.S. side should immediately stop its erroneous practices, treat companies from all countries equally, including from China, and do more to contribute to world economic stability,” Chinese Commerce Ministry spokesperson Shu Jueting said Thursday in a statement. A New Player: Another rising global power, India, wants in on the lucrative chip game, too. On Thursday, its government announced $10 billion in incentives for manufacturers to establish semiconductor fabrication plants in the country. Already, Singapore-based IGSS Ventures, Israeli group ISMC, and Foxconn have signed letters of intent to develop Indian-based sites. Now, the chips will fall where they may.
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I have heard from my collogues in Prague that their personal energy costs have gone up 100%. My company is thinking about relocating their data centers out of EU (Specifically Germany, Czech, and Ukraine) due to high energy costs and no near term solution regarding energy. That's a significant move because datacenters are not easy to relocate and build. Food for thought.
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I agree with the thesis; makes sense and seems to be playing out. Some of the March OTM puts have IV around 40+. So not expensive but not really cheap either. Different strokes for different folks. Hope you crush it
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Premiums don't look great on these
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How do you search? Every time I do a three letter ticket search it shows zero results? Tried it from General Category, General Discussion, Investment Ideas, Everywhere. No Bueno
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Nice, a co-worker of mine quit this year and took went all in with his wife on a food truck. He did catering on the side prior. Says he loves it and wouldn't ever go back. I think they focused more on catering events/for hire by breweries etc. Respectable job right there! Ought to pitch that as a movie. "Grocery store manager finds a copy Grants Interest Rate Observer on lunch break...makes millions" I imagine we all have rose colored glasses for the past lol The more I think about it, I don't miss walking in the rain, snow, and sleet and getting attacked by dogs
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My wife and I became completely debt free this past year. (Mortgage free, owned vehicles, school debt free, etc.). I know that's generally not the most efficient method but we still also both fully fund Roth IRAs, HSA, 401ks and stack quite a bit in the brokerage account every year. We are still in our late 20's with no kids. Honestly from a life perspective I think the benefit of this approach is often overlooked. We will probably have kids in the next two years and my wife will likely cut her work hours by 2/3rds. Being debt free gives us flexibility, focus, and removes the fear of having one primary income. Could I have made more investing? Yeah probably. But now I'm not tied me to my job. I can do what I want Add a few rental properties to the mix, maybe a side gig etc. To me financial freedom = flexibility and retirement = the ability to do what you want on your own terms. Frankly I have zero desire to stare at a computer screen my whole life. Say what you want about tech it pays well, is flexible and generally interesting enough. But at the end of the day staring at a screen for 30 years is soul sucking. I have zero desire to do this forever. Much rather lower my income, and do something interesting/more fulfilling. Not going to lie, some days I miss the ol Brown UPS truck....Cruising around the country side with the doors open on a sunny day doing physical work...LOL
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You can still read his posts over on SiliconInvestor. Thought process is interesting to read through. The dude definitely can approach investing from multiple angles which a lot of guys don't or can't do.
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Look for a Local Coin Shop that deals in bullion. Some Pawn shops can be used but good ones that don't try to rip you off with premiums are hard to come by. Otherwise online is your best bet. LCS will get you the best price. Whatever way you slice it, you'll be paying a premium. The more convenient the more premium. Three places in Nashville that seem to have solid reviews and service. - Nashville Coin Gallery - Nashville Gold & Coin Buyers Coin Dealer - Coin Purse Edit: I will add that owning physical gold can be a real PITA. If you're looking to own it simply because you like coins or bars etc. fine makes sense. But if you're looking for some items to barter with or something there are probably better things (ammo, alcohol, tobacco). Good luck!
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Sold ATCO in non-taxable accounts.
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No but I think it would have been reasonable to pivot who needs to be protected. Could have easily isolated old individuals and that would have taken care of the majority of the high risk folks. Would have cost society far less or at least been more efficient. we can agree to disagree not worries
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Did you not see all those kids and young healthy adults under 40 flooding the system? A message to everyone. Not very PC but the truth. STOP BEING FAT. 30% of covid hospitalization were because of obesity. Add in comorbidities due to oversight and it goes wayyy up. We all had to put our lives on hold and care about these peoples health more than they do on a daily basis. Then instead of pivoting once we identified the vulnerable groups, we doubled down and paid them to stay home and become even more unhealthy. Not trying to toot my own horn, but I am in good shape. Been in the 1000lb club for years, can run a sub 6 mile and do 10mil trail runs a couple times a week. Had covid three weeks ago. One day of 101 fever next day fatigued and maybe two more days of feeling “off”. Stayed home and was running again on day 5 (alone in the middle of nowhere) and hitting the gym day 10 after contagious period was over. JNJ vaxxed that’s it. And yeah before anyone says so I know there are outliers.
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The hypocrisy can't be ignored. Remember your grandfather died alone in a retirement home and your kids were kept home for well over a year. If you happened to walk by a random person with Covid yet showed no signs of symptoms yourself you still needed to stay home and quarantine for 14 days. Ban people and basically lynch them on in the media for saying the vaccine and boosters don't prevent spread or prevent you from contracting it ONLY to find out that they were right! Lambaste America and say we need to take an approach more like China if we want to stop it (there were a lot of you on here). Tell restaurant and bar owners that they can't server alcohol unless they serve food as well, basically putting them out of business ("Does a chicken sandwich prevent Covid?!") But they let this happen in a primary hotspot and say "just wear long sleeves or cover it with a band-aid.". Look idc if your gay, straight, or bisexual. But I do care if you're a hypocrite. If you're going to talk the talk then you need to walk the walk. So if this one gets bad nah, I'll be doing my own thing. https://www.kron4.com/monkeypox/annual-dore-alley-fair-held-in-sf-amid-growing-monkeypox-concerns/ Here is the official guide utilized by the aids foundation. https://www.sfaf.org/collections/beta/douchies-guide-to-a-dore-alley-without-fear-of-monkeypox/ Take a friend to the dungeon Going to sex parties with people you know (and planning on who you’ll hook up with) can be one way to reduce your risk if you’re able to have open and honest conversations about monkeypox symptoms and possible exposures. Talk to the people you’ll play with ahead of time about monkeypox, but also things like HIV, PrEP and sexual health testing. Move to less crowded areas Consider skipping the dark, back rooms at parties if they’re super crowded and there’s no way to control who you’re bumping up against and rubbing skin-to-skin with. Cover up your own bumps See a bump on your skin and worried that it might be monkeypox? If you’re not sure, and you still want to go out tonight, cover it up with a bandaid or clothing before you go out. If you feel like it’s likely to be monkeypox (for instance if you know you may have been exposed), it makes sense to stay home and wait on going out until you can get it checked out by your healthcare provider.
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GOOGL, ALCO
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Global food crisis coming? If so, how will it play out?
Castanza replied to nafregnum's topic in General Discussion
Litmus test will be how the Dutch Farmers shake out. They are probably the most efficient farmers in the country. They have found ways to reduce fertilizer drastically and for some major crops were able to figure out ways to reduce water usage by 90%. Dutch farmers have been at for forefront of Agriculture innovation for decades. Something tells me that when the "best" are out there protesting the new legislation surrounding their industry, the bureaucrats should re-evaluate their policy. Just because food production may be boosted by innovation long term does not mean that the policies/outcomes in the short term are advantageous. Famine leads to more famine, and places like Sri Lanka and other South East Asian countries are going through the ringer. A lot of it is due to poor policy in the short term. ________ The adoption of "Green policy" in general has been terrible. The best way to hurt the poor is to drive up energy prices. The best way to get people to care about the environment is to shoot for a 5k GDP per capita (USD equivalent). Current green policy is "out of sight out of mind." We have Australia cracking down on coal use, but shipping it to China for use. We've got Biden cracking down on pipelines in the US while quietly lobbying for off shore drilling in Brazil and Venezuela. I'm hoping the pendulum swings and the globalists realize their missteps. It may take some time though as we still have politicians saying "$8/gal gas is actually good!" *cough *cough Ms. Freeman.
