Castanza

At my wife’s hospital, managements response to all of this has been complete nonsense. They told staff they aren’t allowed to wear masks unless they are in direct oversight of a patient with a confirmed case because it “scares” other patients. They also said you’re not allowed to wear your scrubs outside of the hospital because it could cause public panic. At least blame it on supply issues. This is one of the highest level hospitals on the east coast....people want to blame leadership all the way at the top (and they deserve a lot) but the leadership at “boots in the ground” levels have been abysmal as well.

Skilled worked shouldn’t be a problem. The article quoted by LC seems to say that "Skilled worked shouldn’t be a problem" is a myth. But what about all those people fired from factories in Midwest? IDK. Maybe they are not skilled enough? Maybe they are in a wrong place (labor geographic mobility is way lower than needed). Or all the O&G rubber necks

+1 If you need laptop only functionality and ergonomics etc. But... A dock and a pair of screens also makes a huge difference working from home. I'd rather have some $300 Walmart laptop with a dock and 2-3 screens than only a 15in + Macbook Pro to work from. I guess it depends what you'll be running but even for tedious document filling two screens is better. edit: I will add, there is no way I would buy a $2300 laptop for a temporary work from home situation. But that's just me.

Why do you have an obsession with me? Literally every comment I make you immediately respond. Half the time you say something either extremely cryptic or unreadable as if your in a drunken stupor. My guess is you think my opinion is far different than what it actually is.

The second doctor is a boob. He is making some very interesting logical errors. Firstly, he claims, without proof that covid-19 is widespread - at some points he conflates covid-19 with other strains of coronavirus, which he says represent 10-17% of common colds, and then uses that conflation to claim that covid-19 is probably as widespread as the common cold. Then he takes the unfounded leap that if covid-19 is so widespread, maybe we are mis-attributing mortality. Someone who dies and tests positive with covid-19, according to this guys faulty logic, may have died from something else. Musk made a similar dubious argument regarding the Italy death data on twitter, arguing since the dead often had other underlying conditions, maybe it was those conditions that resulted in their death and not covid-19. This line of reasoning lacks even the most basic understanding of pathology and causation. If an elderly person with heart disease, for example, died and tested positive for covid-19, the cause of death can be reasonably determined. Covid-19 infection serious enough to cause death presents with a severe ground-glass pattern pneumonia, decreased oxygenation, fever, increased white blood cell count (and a myriad of other objective measurements) that are NOT present in a cardiac death. To disingeniously claim that we can not tell the difference is so ignorant of the basic facts it would be laughable in any other circumstance. M. I’m not claiming the validity of eithers arguments. Simply saying it’s interesting to see differing opinions. Hence the (fwiw). What were your thoughts on the first?

FWIW: Differing opinions from doctors. https://m.facebook.com/story.php?story_fbid=793985471088619&id=100014315194592&_rdr https://m.facebook.com/story.php?story_fbid=793945707759262&id=100014315194592&_rdr

The definition of "Affluenflammation"

Oh, yeah - don't disagree with the CoBF experts here. They have everyone's motivations figured out. And they just love to pile on. So far I've gathered this: 1. Only Republicans can practice cognitive dissidence. 2. Multiple individuals have now said that regardless of outcome and regardless of hindsight analysis, their approach will still be correct and any rebuttal will be wrong. 3. There is no such things as riding the fence and trying to approach issues/decisions with some amount of skepticism. If you're not 100% with the herd you're a charlatan, denier, etc.

The partisan nature is primarily media driven in my opinion. Conservatives don’t want to feel like morons who overreact to a “little old flu.” And Democrats don’t want to be left feeling like a “selfish asshole” who has no sympathy for the struggling family. There is probably a good quote to sum that up. Personally I’m back and forth with it. I try to avoid the bandwagon herd mentality and approach stuff with some level of skepticism. I also can’t get past the idea of building models on flawed numbers or insufficient data. I said it before but if I had to guess this will end up being between H1N1 number infected and SARS deaths. What I care more about is the approach and how it affects the economy and the future of this country. I think any type of lockdown beyond 1 month is going to be very difficult in the US. Both from a logistical and social acceptance standpoint. Some have said fear is a good motivator. It absolutely is, and every dictator would agree with that haha. But judging from the lockdown videos I’ve seen online in India and other countries. You’re going to end up with a lot of dead law enforcement if you have police beating individuals with sticks because they broke curfew. Have we forgotten the Hong Kong protests? Do we think the Wuhan approach was much different than that? For the record , I’m not against a lockdown of that duration (1mo). But beyond that I think it would be time to re-evaluate the situation and consider some type of “soft opening” for lower risk individuals. I guess time will tell. I like your insight into “context”. Makes sense on a societal level.

Consider this from January 26, 5 days before the President ordered the ban on travel from China: https://thehill.com/homenews/sunday-talk-shows/479939-government-health-agency-official-corona-virus-isnt-something-the?amp Feel any different? Just a few days before your article WHO was still repeating what China had “confirmed” that the virus was not transferred person to person. There is a 15-20 day window late Jan to early Feb where info was very unclear and very fast changing.

Is the 80k projection based including the shortage of beds and ventilators?

I think you’re looking for this thread. https://www.cornerofberkshireandfairfax.ca/forum/general-discussion/what-are-you-drinking/

Lmao this keeps getting better.

Respectfully, how can you be sure?

I was gonna say that this is a joke thread. But you post is in keeping with the spirit. The guy who votes no on everything but voted for the Trump tax cut. Yes. Thomas Massey... Paragon of fiscal responsibility! LOL!!! He voted for less taxes being paid. He would vote for less taxes for individuals as well. You’re making a false equivalence and then drawing your own conclusion. That’s the joke. What’s even funnier is you’re saying a congressman is an asshole for upholding his oath to obey the constitution...

It doesn't have to be 100% effective. More effective it is, the shorter it is, but I saw something that ~90% reduction in interactions lowers Ro such that infections will decline. 90% is not the same for every area and not exact Depending on how familiar you are with exponential behavior, the talk of Ro may or may not be helpful. What's important is non-perfect shutdowns work if they are generally effective Italy has clamped down and the lockdown is working. If they can do it, everyone can. Yes we can! Didn’t Italy just see a spike in cases?

Massie was right about a lot of his justification. I would link his tweet but my company has now blocked twitter to save bandwidth.... No, that guy is just an asshole. Read the tweet too. Btw, when John Kerry and Donald Trump can agree on one thing. You know it's true.... No, he was right. Fiscal responsibility shouldn’t be abandoned simply because emotions are high and people are losing their shit.

Maybe Canada can go ask China for military support.....

The American people are applauding a Bill that is a worse deal than any payday loan shop is guilty of. Think about that.

Massie was right about a lot of his justification. I would link his tweet but my company has now blocked twitter to save bandwidth....

I don't think it's possible to do a hard lock down in the US. Too many logistics involved. One way or another you are going to have millions of people making hundreds of interactions a day. No, I don't think the economy will keep chugging along on cruise control. But I think it would coast. I absolutely think people will go out to bars, go shopping, if they are allowed to work. But as I said, I think it would be best for High Risk individuals to stay home and quarantine. I also think some precaution of social distancing etc should take place. I'm not saying to allow stuff like Spring Break, or allow flights, concerts, sports, etc. I think people who are arguing for a hard shutdown are greatly misrepresenting the long term economic costs of that. To quote Bernanke "We just open up the computer and move the decimal point a few spots."

Everyone is trying to understand where we go from here. How long will the economic shut down last? Bill Gates, pretty smart guy, with access to virus experts. No dog in the race. His take is even with the current shut downs in New York and Washington State the virus numbers will not peak there until late April (think about that curve that is shown everywhere). And the shut downs will need to last another month afterwards. And that is if the whole US quickly follows suit. So his take is we might start to be able to open the economy up in early June (and based on what we see in China the restart of the economy is very slow and consumers are slow to spend given continuing fears of catching the virus and fear of job loss). A county by county approach will not work for the simple reason that peoples movements are not controlled. And the counties that go back to work will allow the virus to resume its exponential growth in those areas (their low numbers today will eventually become big numbers). Trying a county by county approach will only extend the economic shut down to even longer than indicated above. Counties that go back to work early will simply start seeding new clusters in their area and they will silently spread to other counties. Again, the movement of people is not controlled within the US. At some point you have to let people go back to work. The government cannot provide stimulus indefinitely. I think society needs to understand there is going to be pain with this....The idea that this could have been handled different with less pain is also not completely accurate (specific to the US). I said earlier it's impossible to lock down a country of this size which relies on personal transportation. I also don't think there is a realistic method (in the US) of squishing down the curve enough to avoid overwhelming a healthcare system which is built for AVERAGES. Tell people over 55 to stay home. If they have jobs provide them a loan which should be repaid. Otherwise let others get on with life. Encourage them to social distance outside of working hours. But, I have a hard time believing individuals are going to stay put for more than a month as it is. I'm sure a lot of you will disagree with this...But frankly I don't care. What's on the other side of a long term lock down is far more scary. With all due respect, it cracks me up when people say ‘can’t do it’. That is a completely false statement. If we have learned anything the last 2,000 years it is that humans survive because they adapt. The virus does not give a shit what you think you can or can’t do. I do know one thing: eventually a country will do what it takes to get the virus under control. They will need to make the pain stop. So they simply will have no choice in the end. All that matters is if you do the right thing or not. Right now you have a model staring you in the face that works: 6-10 week national lock down. If you try a different approach you are likely going to have a much worse health and economic outcome than the 6-10 weeks lock down plan. You just do not know it yet. But you will in another 2 or 3 weeks :-) And the longer you dither the worse the health and economic damage gets. The virus has hit well over 100 countries in the world. We have lots of examples as countries have tried to fight the virus. We also have decades of history of past virus outbreaks that provide useful information (obviously not the same but still useful). Lots is known about how to deal with this virus. Based on what is known once a country gets to the community transfer stage it has two options: 1.) lock down: if done china style, 6 weeks of pain. Radical lifestyle changes and manic testing regime. 2.) no lock down = prolonged shit show 300k National Guard members 900k Law Enforcement Officers Roughly 26k per state. Cities on a good day have 3-4k police officers. If you go full scale China lock down you will easily eat up half of the state resources for just the 2-3 major cities in each state. So you direct the rest to block highways and major roads? What about back roads? Who will deliver all the food to individuals doors like they did in China? Are ou going to tell people they can't go to the grocery store? It's a logistical nightmare. _________________ On the financial side what do we do? Let the Fed keep printing? None of these small businesses are going to get bailed out. Anything more than a month is ludicrous.

Yeah, everything you say in this paragraph after the first three sentences is pretty silly, so it's good that you don't care about people disagreeing with it. I find it very strange that some people are convinced that in a massively complex environment, shades of grey do not exist. Then provide a realistic solution to the last part "I said earlier it's impossible to lock down a country of this size which relies on personal transportation. I also don't think there is a realistic method (in the US) of squishing down the curve enough to avoid overwhelming a healthcare system which is built for AVERAGES" Locking down SK is very different than locking down the US. The US is 99x larger than SK and has over 250M more people....Is our healthcare system not designed based on averages?

Everyone is trying to understand where we go from here. How long will the economic shut down last? Bill Gates, pretty smart guy, with access to virus experts. No dog in the race. His take is even with the current shut downs in New York and Washington State the virus numbers will not peak there until late April (think about that curve that is shown everywhere). And the shut downs will need to last another month afterwards. And that is if the whole US quickly follows suit. So his take is we might start to be able to open the economy up in early June (and based on what we see in China the restart of the economy is very slow and consumers are slow to spend given continuing fears of catching the virus and fear of job loss). A county by county approach will not work for the simple reason that peoples movements are not controlled. And the counties that go back to work will allow the virus to resume its exponential growth in those areas (their low numbers today will eventually become big numbers). Trying a county by county approach will only extend the economic shut down to even longer than indicated above. Counties that go back to work early will simply start seeding new clusters in their area and they will silently spread to other counties. Again, the movement of people is not controlled within the US. At some point you have to let people go back to work. The government cannot provide stimulus indefinitely. I think society needs to understand there is going to be pain with this....The idea that this could have been handled different with less pain is also not completely accurate (specific to the US). I said earlier it's impossible to lock down a country of this size which relies on personal transportation. I also don't think there is a realistic method (in the US) of squishing down the curve enough to avoid overwhelming a healthcare system which is built for AVERAGES. Tell people over 55 to stay home. If they have jobs provide them a loan which should be repaid. Otherwise let others get on with life. Encourage them to social distance outside of working hours. But, I have a hard time believing individuals are going to stay put for more than a month as it is. I'm sure a lot of you will disagree with this...But frankly I don't care. What's on the other side of a long term lock down is far more scary.

Wife and I are doing the same. Also potentially have a volunteer position at her hospital restocking rooms, carts, and whatever else they need. Apparently they are asking spouses who are "working from home" and not exposed to others (except their spouse) since it cuts down on risk.