nwoodman

A great reminder that the “B” in P/B for Fairfax often doesn’t reflect economic reality. This will likely be a $5bn position for Fairfax before we even have to question whether it is fairly valued i.e it’s a 75c dollar today and growing. That FX kicker may well prove material in time too.

I enjoyed this interview with Robert Hagstrom. Touches on some points that I ponder a fair bit - Bill Miller’s influence and touches on complex adaptive systems - Concentration - Private Equity -Investing philosophy (the edge) A nice wrap of a conceptual framework that works as long as you can handle volatility. Nothing really new but he does a good of reinforcing the basics and this interview resonated.

Haven’t heard anything to the contrary. This article mentioned Oaktree as a possible fourth. I think @gfp may have already posted this link above so apologies if it is doubling up https://www.outlookbusiness.com/corporate/dubai-state-owned-emirates-nbd-frontrunner-for-idbi-banks-majority-stake

Yep, it’s a decent chunk upon conversion. I like the sound of another holding reaching the billion dollar club. A recent interview with Evangelos, starts at the 21 min mark and covered here (Note: I had to VPN to watch the video)

IDBI inching towards a completion. Three years flies by https://www.businesstoday.in/latest/corporate/story/idbi-bank-disinvestment-nears-final-approval-stage-say-government-sources-482040-2025-06-26 The strategic disinvestment of IDBI Bank has entered its final approval phase, with the Share Purchase Agreement (SPA) receiving clearance from the Inter-Ministerial Group (IMG), senior government sources told Business Today TV. “The IMG held two meetings and has recently approved the Share Purchase Agreement. It will now be taken up by the Core Group of Secretaries on Disinvestment. Following that, financial bids are expected to be invited, likely in the first week of September,” a senior official confirmed.

I was revisiting the numbers, and it still looks quite interesting. I tried to buy it a while back, but was told the Greek bourse was off-limits. It's still relatively inexpensive, so I may give it another try. Its a great story with a long runway. Either way, you win via Fairfax. "It is expected that Admission will become effective and that unconditional dealings will commence at 8:00 a.m. (UK time) on 4 August 2025." Prospectus attached metlen_energy_metals_plc_prospectus.pdf the_articles_of_association.pdf

A swag of announcements on Metlen's LSE listing. A short MS note attached https://www.metlengroup.com/share-exchange/news-announcemets/ METLEN_20250626_1216.pdf

Yep, it certainly widens the tolerance bands on IV.

That table should be framed and hanging on the wall of every Fairfax investor

Thanks @Viking, a minuscule contribution but appreciate the call-out. Intellectually and financially do you think this has been one of your favourite problems to solve?

+1, @dealraker is the model once you find those elusive multi decade compounders. Kids there is a “smallish” legacy in your future.

Agree, this likely becomes forum standard over time. I’ve been using the term notes and posts in quotes to signal when something isn’t entirely original thinking. The latest post clearly falls into the quick-and-dirty LLM category, born out of convenience and hence the PDF format. But to be fair, some of my other posts are hybrids, part AI-generated, part me, and some are bottom-up builds. Not always easy to draw a clean line. However always PDF. That said, the PDF format has utility. It lets others gross error check discreetly without cluttering the thread. And if it helps me map Fairfax’s sprawl of subsidiaries, maybe it helps someone else. They’re backgrounders, not gospel. We’re all trying to figure out what Fairfax’s current streak means. To me, it feels like the Russian doll of value opportunities, layers within layers. We all reach our own IV estimates through different lenses. For my part, the key is avoiding getting shaken out by a blunt metric like P/B. Conversely I don’t want to get anchored to this is a forever hold. I want to know that there is a margin of safety even small so I can hold this for a long time.

For sure, hence notes. As you point out there is a redundancy for this audience but there is also a frictional cost of editing that isn’t warranted. Provides a starter/primer and the hit miss ratio is still too high to consider them anymore than a starting point. However the framing I find helpful, so figure this might be of value to the CoBF community. Caveat Emptor as they say. Having said all that, what I find helpful is that even in the notes it gives me around 10 things to chase down that I hadn’t even considered. After all for better or worse we are all becoming prompt engineers. Edit: I think it is a courtesy to carve out these sorts things as a PDF rather than clogging up the thread. It allows discretion of download but also provides a discrete document that members can run their own queries/gross error check with minimal friction

Sounds like that trip was so insightful. Fairfax certainly creates all the opportunities to allow investors to “get it” if they are willing to put in the time. Your willingness to take them up on their offer is a credit to you.

Impressive appointment, some notes attached. TLDR “Who is Amitabh Kant? Former CEO of NITI Aayog – India’s top policy think tank. G20 Sherpa during India’s 2023 presidency – led global negotiations. Architect of “Make in India”, “Startup India”, and Aspirational Districts Programme. Boosted India’s Ease of Doing Business rank by 79 places. Known for executing large-scale public-private development reforms. Why This Matters to Fairfax India Policy Insight: Deep understanding of India’s regulatory, industrial, and investment landscape. Deal Access: Strong government and private sector networks can open new investment doors. Strategic Alignment: His priorities match Fairfax India’s focus on infrastructure, finance, and logistics. Public-Private Catalyst: Experienced in structuring initiatives that align private capital with national development goals. India’s 2047 Vision (“Viksit Bharat”) India targets becoming a $30+ trillion economy by 2047 (from ~$4T now). Major growth areas: infrastructure, urbanization, manufacturing, clean energy, and financial services. Kant helped shape this vision—his appointment positions Fairfax India to ride this wave early and intelligently. Bottom Line Kant’s appointment gives Fairfax India a trusted guide with insider knowledge and strategic foresight to capitalize on India’s long-term growth and reform agenda. It’s a high-conviction signal of Fairfax’s deepening commitment to India.” Amitabh Kant’s Appointment as Senior Advisor to Fairfax India- Strategic….pdf

+1. What we have witnessed is the regression to the mean phase. I say that a bit tongue in cheek because that was my view at the start of 2024 . If I wasn’t loaded to the gills this is still a better idea than most. It is intriguing that the share price is holding up coming into CAT season, so this feels more like a re-rating. FWIW still my best idea but it’s fun exploring other ideas but the benchmark is Fairfax.

A little late, but MS raised their PT on Eurobank to €3.53 in late May. This puts them at a heady 1x’s book with a return on tangible equity of 15%. The entire Greek banking sector is pretty much a no brainer as the table below shows but good to see MS returning to OW on Eurobank and really starting to consider the value created by the Hellenic acquisition EEMEA_20250527_2301.pdf

Cheers. Certainly makes you wonder what suspending the dividend and redirecting that capital into buybacks might have looked like. I’m sure many of us turned those dividends into a DIY DRIP anyway, but it was tax-inefficient. That said, it all worked out well and the TRS was arguably a clever, quiet proxy for doing just that.

Isn’t it as simple as an IRR on the share repurchases? When I plug in your numbers I get an average weighted IRR of 45.7% for buybacks Applying similar logic plus the cost of financing for the TRS it might look something like this All quite remarkable and consistent with most of our returns from those purchase in 2021. Good times

There is a false precision with the approach in the table below but just interested in terms of how others are handicapping this. The investor actions take them with a pinch of salt.

+1, good for you man

No wonder he lives rent free in Trumps head.

From what I’m seeing in the media, the “No Kings” protests had an impressive turnout, millions nationwide at around 2,000 events, with 60,000+ in Philadelphia and San Diego alone. Just as importantly, the protests seem very peaceful. Hope it stays that way.

Aljazeera is reporting that there has been a number of assassinations of key Iranian military and nuclear officials that coincided with the attacks.

Conservatively about 30 bps, maybe more depending on tenor and market conditions. The upgrade from BBB+ to A- at the holdco level is real money, probably 30–40 bps in spread tightening. The subs getting bumped from A+ to AA- trims another 15–25 bps. That adds up. Assume ~$8B in debt and ~25% refinanced annually, you’re looking at $6–10 million in yearly interest savings. Not game-changing for a company earning over $4B, but it all helps. But the bigger point? They’re right where they want to be. AA- is the credit rating sweet spot, low enough cost of capital to stay competitive, high enough to keep regulators and counterparties happy, but not so high they’re handcuffed. AAA sounds good in theory, but it’s a straitjacket in practice. More capital warehoused, less flexibility, and no room to be contrarian. This upgrade is the best of both world’s. It’s been a long time coming so +1 to @Parsad’s congratulations