Gregmal

Pretty sure in both 2008 and 2020 bottoms occurred within 12 months. In 2020 probably within a couple weeks. That’s the problem generally with sell offs is that the noise and current headlines get everyone trying to guess the tomorrows tape, or exact bottom or avoid the next leg and in the process forget entirely about the fact that investing should be about longer term fundamentals. For instance it’s hard to envision a scenario where Berkshire at 260 or FFH at 460 doesn’t make tons over money over the next 3-5. In the short term if there’s another 10-20% folks feel good avoiding it, but longer term it’s just always kinda the same thing. Markets are always moving ahead, when we hit earnings trough the market will already be way off the bottom. Things in general seemed priced in until the recent possibility was raised that the Fed would purposely put us in a recession and destroy jobs. Which even there, is eventually something that will have to be fixed. And it will be. They’ve already said this is temporary. Unless you’re investing with a 6-12 month window, in which case I guess it’s possibly permanent. Thankfully I don’t have that problem. So, take your pick. Sit around trying to guess a million different short term variables, most temporary, or just play the long game. I try to do a bit of both, but the major skew really should just be towards acquiring great and indestructible assets.

I’d also argue that historically speaking, 4% rates and $80 oil isn’t really anything special in terms of high or low. Dollar is another story lol

There’s never been a decline, period, like even 2-5% declines, where “lower” wasn’t the forecast somewhere. Even at 670 in 09 we had another 30% to go. Look at @LC example with 3% return 30 years ago. What a waste. This is just where fools and their assets part ways. They get fooled into believing the day to day quotes they get represent the value of what they own, and the whole irony there is that if that were true, there’s no point to buying anything but an index.

Enough people see their retirement account statements and you’re gonna see all sorts of funny stuff. First one probably being jpow at senate hearings asking why $20 a week higher grocery bills called for destroying middle class dreams of home ownership and 75 being the new retirement age due to 30-50% declines in 401k. This whole year has been hilarious in so many ways. But really it’s been no different than the last couple; blind leading the blind and feebly serving the wealthy and their agendas. Like Mr Sokol today offering to PAY MORE for a shipping company!

MSGS and Berkshire. Sold some more October IWM puts and swapped into far OTM VIX calls. Feeling like folks are nearing capitulation.

Yea I’ve seen all that and those stories come and go now for the 25 plus years I’ve followed sports memorabilia. Only buy PSA graded and generally just stick to EBay. PWCC is legit but shill bids a lot so you’ll get a real card but over pay often. They were booted from eBay over this last year. Keep your cards in a safety deposit box at the bank.

Like the 8s for both Topps and OPC. 9 is great but I’d rather own a handful of 8s vs one or two 9. 7s on OPC ok too. Would not go below 8 on the Topps.

Good stuff. I have a few Gretzky. Sold one a little over a year ago when they got stupid but longer term been great store of value.

The secret with rentals is common sense. Don’t chase yield. Take high credit score, w2, maybe profile a little bit. A 70 year old on a pension beats a 30 year old single mother who’s a 1099. One can argue about the political correctness but one bad tenant wipes out 5 years of good ones.

You have to deal with that at $700 a month too. But there’s ways to manage it and over time you learn the tricks of the trades.

Both. Fed hasn’t solved the housing crisis they’ve just made it worse and prolonged it. Shit will still need to be built. Also like what LPX is doing on the allocation side.

What Judge has done should be admired by everyone, sports fan or not. No, not having a historic season, it’s what he did before the season. Counter party is the wealthiest and most influential sports franchise on the planet. He…bought puts and went to cash in his personal account on everything he owned for his investors….just kidding. When it was all on the line he bet big on himself. He ll probably get double that pathetic offer the Yanks made this preseason.

The thing you don’t appreciate with rentals, until you do, is that you literally don’t do shit. Maybe once a decade you make a major repair or improvement assuming you did proper diligence. Outside of that it takes next to no time once setup and then one day you look at your equity and it’s like whoa. Not a stock, not a bond, but kinda like a high yield savings account with random lottery tickets attached.

The conservatives rope them in and the liberals make them stay! J/K as honestly I have no clue really other than both parties are frauds on the subject

Yankees Red Sox tickets. Why not

It’s hilarious the contradictions you see if you follow the whole poor/middle class anti immigration crowd who tend to be construction or farm workers. The GC who hates Mexicans and poor liberals who don’t pay taxes has Julio and Jose doing off the books labor at his sites and then on weekends unpermitted renovations on his primary home.

At least most of the anti immigration people are farmers who don’t use Iphones lol

So on one end we virtue signal about China while typing on our iPhones. We propose bringing jobs back home. Acknowledged is that costs will go up but we re virtuous so it’s ok. Then the Fed mistakes this all for some weird side effect of inflation and others say it’s because of “money printing”. Seems like everyone is just chasing their tails into a self inflicted recession.

2000 more CKX at market, with another 2000 on the bid at 10.5 if anyone wants to play ball.

Added some FFH, Disney and LPX

Easiest starter path I’ve seen work for folks not with an in is to do a summer at a small brokerage house, get your 7/66, learns the sales game, and then move up. At the least if you’re licensed and got an OK resume it’s a shoe in at the big shops like Merrill or MS. Once that’s done you have access to the universe and then it’s just about relationship building.

Whoa, whoa, whoa…so now we know Bill has closed his “inflation” scheme trades and has got something else on. Bottom probably comes in late October then when the rest of the suited sheep catch wind of what the trade is. Amazing though because this was obvious back in July when he was lobbying for rate hikes. Shows you again, not that we need it, how those lobbying for rate hikes just looking to profit off the stupidity and destruction from them, rather than believing they are the answer to anything.

Yea I mean we are as a nation looking to do things that will have cost impact now…think of it as spending today for payoff down the road, this for sure is contributing to increased prices. Yet to clowns at the Fed are reading out of playbooks from the 70s and academic work that’s nonsensical and thinking raising rates until backwards looking metrics come down, will make the world a better place. Why do you think we offer EV tax subsidies? Cuz it’s more expensive up front typically. Why is bringing labor back on shore creating higher wages? It’s almost as if the Fed is sabotaging what the country is doing. Their whole “inflation” fight essentially targets deliberate agendas and for many, sacrifices they are willing to make to change the country.

I talk to this man pretty regularly and he s one of the under appreciated gems of COBF. Should post more.

Sold some more of the Octobers and added to MSGS