Gregmal

The best semi possible angle I can come up with is that they’re taking a very aggressive kitchen sink approach to the first 2-3Q to lower rates, inflation, oil, etc. get the tax cuts and business incentives. Tariffs are the most effective mechanism to create emotional rollercoasters of uncertainty. Then ride the recovery for 1.5-3 years.

It’s also just in general important to remember to be patient, as stocks are a long term asset, and not be wowed by sensationalism or volatility. For all the “pays to panic” stuff that honestly only seems intelligent during these sort of episodes, I leave you this. In February 2020 I indeed was wowed a little by a few people whom I respect about “the coming dangers of COVID”….I sold some longer term holdings, like BX, CIBR, etc to raise some cash. Today, my payoff is that I felt decent for a grand total of like 6-8 weeks, and those 6-8 weeks of “feelings” cost me quite a bit financially both in terms of taxes payable, and fortune gains forfeited, when I woulda been better off just sitting on my ass.

Don’t worry. They’ll all learn lol

Yea commodity prices are an interesting element to the equation. Most are doing their best retail stock impressions right now.

Ok so then say that. That’s fair. Claiming he shut down the country when clearly that was an act of sabotage, arguably even terrorism, by blue state governors…is something totally different.

You can blame Trump for a lot of things; shutting down the economy certainly isn’t one of them. Those were all governor calls, and we can never forget whom was responsible for doing that to people. One of the biggest reasons I’m leaving NJ.

Yea I mean we’ve seen, well those of us who’ve been around awhile, how everything gets panic tossed and it only takes a few days of macro declines where individual stuff does 2/3/4x the index direction and that’s where you get your opportunity. It’s just all gotta lineup. That’s where the hallmarks start coming in. The CNBC Markets in Turmoil specials and the broken clocks looking for their “I called it moment” is typically when I like to start getting busy.

Not really. Everyone got fixated like Jewish housewives on the Signal drama…as I pointed out at the time, the most relevant takeaway from that was the talk around oil which made it very clear one of the main objectives right now is to crush oil prices. Saudis then get spared on tariffs and boom OPEC increased production.

Yes. Been too long….love it!

I’m still waiting for SPY 3000. Think we were even told 2800. Recall that’s the target Powell “had in his head”? It was all as easy as “follow the Fed”….

2020-21 everyone was a virologist 2022 everyones an inflation expert 2023 everyones a banking expert 2024 everyone finally just shut the fuck up 2025 everyone’s an expert on tariffs, a mind reader and also smarter than everyone in the WH In pretty much all these instances you wanted to fade the experts and all their bullshit.

So wait, are there really people out there whom think that if a tariff is put in place that makes goods more expensive that the Fed in response to this, should raise interest rates? Lmfao… like is this supposed to accomplish something? Enough rate hikes make the tariffs go away? Enough rate hikes and business owners will just say fuck it and run 501Cs?

All the hallmarks are starting to show. People boasting about their cash hoards. People(me included) touting their bonds, and the broken clocks doing victory laps! Might be time to buy soon.

Blake lives!

Inflation occurs when demand exceeds supply and results in prices escalating, typically in an erratic or unstable manner. Inflation is not…something is expensive. Or, a price goes up, in a vacuum, with no consideration for demand. Of course, Jpow is a fool and the way many report inflation inputs…ie this is the “cost” of going out and buying xyz item paints a picture that gives many people charts inputs and dramatic Twitter material. So who knows what this jabroni will do. But at least so far his “transitory” remark seems to indicate he gets it; that tariff up equals price up, but demand needs to be seen and price stability has not been threatened one iota.

That was an awesome exercise during Covid and again in 2022. Most people woulda been better off doing the opposite of what they were so certain of. The consolation prize was that they did get a technical recession with Covid, but not much to show for it!

I have a hard enough time keeping up with yearly stuff cuz I find it relatively pointless. Worrying about random multi week or month stretches is beyond idiotic if you’re trying to invest though.

Yea that’s one of the dumbest and easily disputable anti Trump talking points. I don’t know what it is that motivates him, but everyone knows all the money from politics is made after leaving office. $700k an hour speaking gigs, deals with lobbyists, etc. Personally I would’ve bailed on any sort of endeavor if I had to deal with 1/10 what Trump has had to put up with. Frankly I don’t understand his motivation but money is such a dumb tv made fallback.

Exactly. Without high quality contributors or people with the balls to share different viewpoints, there’s nothing for the freeloaders to enjoy or cry about. But if that’s the attitude then it is what it is.

Wasn’t Bitcoin supposed to be the safe haven? Only thing I see green is Diageo and treasuries

Yup.. but hey, a bunch of useless, largely anonymous, complaining syrup suckers hit the report button cuz their feelings got ruffled…

Fair enough although I think it’s a little jaded in some aspects. Clearly there’s more on one side here than another but it’s ok. I remember at the end of 2020 too people were reporting me for simply suggesting to invest in places that shunned stupid COVID policies. It’s all good. I’ll go back to reveling in the distress of these babies. Oh the horrors! Stock market volatility. Wah wah wah Orange bad!

Please, we can’t even have a conversation about Disney stock because team mentality refuses to even let us acknowledge basic shit like the fact they’ve shit the bed with marketing. @Dinarwhos posted a ton of valuable ideas is done because a bunch of losers that collectively haven’t contributed shit post stuff that he responds to and he gets the ban. And now every thread, even the “non politics tagged” (ones you said carry consequences for posting politics in)…are rife with TDS inspired conspiracies about how every market fluctuation is some Orange Man gotcha. I’m fine slinging mud, you know this. But the funny reality is many of my friends here, ones even whom are on totality different sides of the political spectrum than I, notice the exact same deterioration and maybe for the benefit of the site it’s worth looking at.