Gregmal

Generally 20-30%. Just kinda gut feel it but I have a decent amount of stuff that IMO is pretty easy to have a confident drawdown floor with, which helps me factor in what kind of margin or structure I need to have. Some like MSGS, FRPH, ALCO, etc from certain valuation just don’t have much risk of downside the way other stocks do. Bonds are similar. If you have a $1000 in bonds, can you be long $200 in stock against it? I ve been doing it for a long time and also incorporated into that is some hedging stuff, generally with options, which work in your favor as well. People are correct, how you structure leverage is critical. My definition of structure is a little different but it accomplishes the same thing. You can also worst case, ACAT around individual positions if you’re getting closer to the magic number.

Yup. Buying a good business on a macro selloff is hardly risky or dangerous. People just get mental when they see reasons to be afraid. Frankly, many people even without reasons, are constantly manufacturing reasons to be afraid. You just can’t invest like that. There’s always something, somewhere, that’s gonna put food on the table, you just have to put in the work.

Yup. I was talking with a bunch of people the last few days about how stupid tweeting that conspiracy theory about Trump tanking the markets to lower rates was, if indeed that was his plan. Markets have a way of testing out pain thresholds, and Trump wasn’t biting on the stock market declines because the bonds were doing what he wanted them to. It was no coincidence that the first 3 trading days after he couldn’t control his Twitter account the market pushed him to his threshold on rates.

Volatility is just...nothing. But people are scared of it. If they wanna be scared that's OK. Vol is just alpha if you have any clue what to do with it. Also, to some, as we see, EVERYTHING is some super duper big deal....but it's not really. This wasn't that big a deal and certainly didn't warrant soooo much groveling. Was really just a classic short term correction. We've had em before and will have em again. Shouldn't really impact our focus as investors...unless we want it to.

Fueled by the tears of the crybabies. It's always glorious, but this one was special.

Man I really need to trademark the COBF Hallmark Buy Signal index. Works every time.

I really think yall are just struggling to adjust to having a president who can actually talk. Not what you’re used to.

That’s not how it works though. DR Horton(along with all the major builders) for instance has contractual takedowns covering a multi year span. They don’t have the option to just say “let’s hold up”. Why would they even risk defaulting on a contract and losing a key regional relationship over a few million bucks anyway?

That’s one’s own prerogative

This doesn’t even make sense. Who the heck didn’t think he d do tariffs? He ran on the idea!

Like it’s crazy how you guys hang on every little word. Nitpick and overanalyze to death. I’m fairly certain half the shit Trump says is solely for the purpose of getting reactions. It’s just noise.

Geez you sound like a politician with the verbiage. Of course Trump is lying about the permanence of tariffs, it’s also called negotiating lol. For real? Why else would there be all these reports of countries lining up for deals? Lutnick I don’t have an opinion on but just found the choice of words indicative of being a little loose lipped and probably vetted on how this plays out. Otherwise why use that sentence structure? I don’t really try to pick sides or still with anything, I lean towards the outcome that the puzzle pieces tell me is possibly emerging.

Well, also missed in all the prognosis and forecasts is that the majority of tariffs aren’t lasting all that long. Thought it was pretty amusing how enraged everyone was that they completely miss the fact that when asked about whether Trump was bluffing, Howard Lutnick responded that they would be in place for….”days or weeks” lol. So between that and the multiple cues we ve gotten indicating they’re hellbent on crushing oil prices… Go ahead, be long permanent tariffs and oil LOL

Huh? Trump made all his money talking a big game and gambling with borrowed money…he was the original Bruce Flatt.

So then they sit on the shelf until they’re liquidated and orders for future product are adjusted, it’s pretty simple. And it’s not inflation. Just supply and demand.

Yup. That too. It’s another hallmark of hysteria. People knowingly or unknowingly posting conveniently abridged charts. Been seeing it a lot with treasuries this week.

Yup. If I take a product and raise prices and it sits on the shelf, people are free to call it inflation but the more realistic and actionable perspective is that I just cratered demand.

I “think” I wanna die laughing, but honestly I have never seen anything like this and just don’t know what the proper response is. Pure circus

Appeal to authority. And yea. They’re probably wrong.

Yea I don’t get it. It’s incredible the amount of people whom think this is going to lead to inflation. Staggering even.

+infinity, directing to @Blake Hampton This is your friend! You’re young. Lose the ideology, embrace the probability, and you too shall prosper.

Exactly. Best companies in the world benefit from government stupidity.

To what? Where do people go? Cash? lol

Buttttttttt.....safehavens dont grow on trees. They'd buy META or GOOG or AAPL bonds I'd gander!

My man! You seem to have gotten a little caught up in the "fuck Trump" stuff, but generally speaking...this is where flexibility of mind like you and I have is crucial and this is where we thrive. This is why we make money regardless of who the figurehead puppet is. Its raining opportunity, the financial markets are our oyster!