Gregmal

This is obviously a complex issue and one not to be taken lightly. Its also an interesting case study of what happens when you give finance guys cool looking charts, trendy buzz words, and Twitter(the land where you can find any number of experts with opinions that support your own already conceived conclusions). Fun times. Ive also found interesting that at first, the narrative was, China botched this. Then, it was China cant be trusted. Now, its China handled this better than we could. The truth, who really knows. But South Koreas figures are promising. As are several other countries. Italy on the other hand, a mess. But didn't we already know Italy was a mess even before the virus?

Eh, I tried to learn a bit from the past two rallies and hedged a bit into the close. Monday-Tuesday still = lower low formations. Which could set up for an interesting finish to the week and another wahoo of a Monday. Who knows. Its been a roller coaster though.

This is probably a much more reasonable and level headed way of putting it. I agree. At least the second half. There is no reason at all not to be taking precaution given that most of the ways to mitigate this, cost us nothing but a little bit of effort.

Topped off MSG to about a 15% position. Always been overweigh this one, but what is value investing if buying the entire thing for less than the value of the Knicks isn't a margin of safety.

I’m just referring you people’s ultimate level of let down with The Donalds plan. Seems to be a classic setup of over promise under deliver. I also agree this is overblown. There’s dudes talking about extinction ROFLMAO If you are really worried about extinction the last thing on your mind should be fucking around in the stock market...

Have yet to find a person not leaning towards selling the news on Donny’s big announcement. Little to do with the potential economic effects, and much more to do with his penchant for being a grand exaggerator and salesman.

Hard disagree. There are pockets of "interesting". But the most obvious ones, financials and energy, have material risk. Good stocks are still selling at a premium. Booking.com is going to see revenue freefall this year to COVID, but it outperformed the indices today. This correction is not about COVID. What I think people are missing is that corrections are normal. Covid is not material for most companies. True. Life will return to normal in 12-18 months. But SPY was up 30% last year. The value of SPY didn't increase 30% in one year. There was enormous complacency built into valuations. Covid is just the trigger for a necessary correction. I raised a bit of cash today. Hoping to raise a bit more tomorrow. I am still expecting a few more pockets of opportunity. The virus has not hit the US yet. At least in people’s minds. Testing is still not being done in large numbers, especially in hot zones like Washington. So the reported numbers are low and everyone feels good. Think of where Italy was about 2 weeks ago. Think about where their stock market was and what people were saying. Look at what is going on now... big change. What a surprise! So far Viking, out of everyone, I have to give you the most credit for your prescience with respect to timing. You've been adding modestly it seems, but still mostly cash. Regardless of what the reason was, you've been right about exit/entry so far. What do you see as the driving factor though? It still sounds like corona, but earlier you indicated, with which I agree, that today was predominantly an oil related shellacking. Last week we seemed to have swings because of the Sanders defeat. But overall I think most merit is given to the "we just needed an excuse to correct" reasoning? Curious to your thoughts going forward.

Well some more anecdotal stuff, a story from a friend who works in one of the tri state area hospitals. An existing patient, one that has been making news lately, is in quarantine and being administered remdesivir along with cocktails of other experimental stuff, mostly over the counter. It is not really working(yet at least), but he remains in somewhat stable condition. However there are now several additional people in quarantine because a confused old man wandered into his room, chased by his wife trying to corral him...

When, last week? ;D ;D ;D old habits

Unfortunately when there is a lot of blood in the streets almost everyone is dead. I frame it that way - politics determines the price here, so it makes sense if things don’t make sense. I had a costly mistake in this sector(now almost a decade ago) that stays with me to this day. You can get 99/100 things right with these and still just get blasted. Way to many moving parts and things out of the control of management/company. The toll collectors sounded like a solid idea as well, but often the capital structures just made them too much of a pain. I fuckin hate energy. Drill, baby, drill, should be explained to the shareholder as kill, baby, kill. Cuz thats what happens with your capital. That, and the cyclical nature of many, almost guarantee repurchases or dividends are done peak cycle...not appealing.

Got an email from an old friend today... found funny. Reminded me of the old days. What’s the good thing about a recession? You can drink Natty Light in public without being judged.

If this isn't blood in the streets then I dont know what is. I dont really pay much attention to most of these names on a regular basis, but my god what carnage!

BRK, CTO, MSG, PCYO

Black Monday boys! Hopefully no one ends up on top of Don Cheadle’s stretch Ferrari.

I am hardly an energy expert and have avoided the sector like the plague, but I would agree lower oil prices are a net positive for consumers. Its also probably relief for airlines, who right now could use every break they can get. At least the ones who dont hedge/modestly hedge.

La Croix until seeing the futures, then some bourbon. Tomorrow should be interesting, that’s for sure.

https://www.facebook.com/adina.garbuz/posts/10218749730509115

While some get flu shots, the reality is that most people do very little to actually mitigate risk of getting the flu every year. Taleb is popular right now for the same reasons Nouriel Rhoubini and Marc Faber are. Especially in the case of Taleb, its like boner inducing literature for financial geeks with a penchant to worry, with all the buzz words. Exponential growth, tail risk, second/third order effect, supply chain disruption, liquidity events.... a little bit of a flair for the dramatic.

Spek are you sure you're not Ray Dalio? Thats more or less what he said... of course, most people just saw the "once in 100 year" headline and proceeded to shit their pants before logging into RobinHood and hitting the bid.

Sorry- maybe I’ll ask again. - What specific mechanism is in place to stop the continued exponential spread in the United States? - If exponential spread is not stopped, do you acknowledge that the healthcare system has extremely high operational leverage and there is a non-0% risk of downside scenarios that are multiplicative? - Given the very common response from large swaths of the population that this is media-hyped & “just a cold/just the flu”, coupled with the fact that the reported infected numbers are being artificially understated, is it possible that relying on the average person to wash their hands is a risky method of risk mitigation? Sorry, maybe you arent understanding, but this thing is going to run its course. That should have been a given awhile ago, and if nothing else the market taking a shit and everybody now hating stocks is a direct result of that. I have spoken to literally dozens of people in the healthcare field including a good half dozen doctors, not including the folks here, and over and over the consensus from all of these people is that the best and most effective measure or piece of advice, is to stay calm and take plenty of precaution/preventative measures. Wash your hands, avoid sick people...Thats about it. Its all you can really do. I agree a large quarantine would be most effective and that the lockdown is likely a last resort, but the playbook should already be out there with what other countries are doing and not doing. So sure, if we want to keep going on, living as though there's already 100,000 people in the US in hospitals waiting for a respirator, go ahead. Thats fine but those concerns are also a derivative of fear and panic and you're silly if you dont think a lot of that is priced in when you have certain associated names down 50% plus already. Airlines are fucked. Hospitality biz is going to struggle. Theres also stuff, that won't. Many distressed retailers have already reported a huge surge in business. So to directly answer your questions, 1. awareness 2. If exponential anything occurs, anything can occur. Always 3. I am not sure what your basis for the common response is, but both yours and mine are subjective and based on largely anecdotal evidence. Most people I see are behaving normally, just being a bit more noticeable hygienic. Several stores Ive visited lately have Clorox wipes next to the carts and bathroom attendants with disinfectant. Stuff like that.

Here's another theoretical semi-math based subject to consider. A large portion of the population, regularly take zero precautions to guard against the flu. Like not only refuse to get a flu shot annually, but also wantonly scurry along obliviously during flu season, without a care in the world. Using these loosely generalized assumptions, you then have to look at annual flu cases/deaths, in that context. And sub contexts. From there, we can also maybe integrate some assumptions about what occurred in Wuhan, with again, large gathering and nil for preventative measures. Now, in relation to here in America, introduce widespread media attention, presumably weeks of advanced warning, and hyper sensitivity by the way of precautionary measures... is it possible the best course of action is just to remain calm and take rather simple and relatively effortless steps to be more aware?

Did you even read what he wrote? Where does it say anything about spending money? Taxpayer money? The only thing presumed is that if you mandate a shutdown, you have to then offer small business assistance(handouts) and find a way to guarantee peoples paychecks. The only way this can happen is from the government via the taxpayer. I am not against it, but its naive to think there is any other way.

Stories like this are good reason to question whether quarantines would actually be enforceable here. I agree the best current course of action would probably be a well designed quarantine for specific high risk counties/states. https://nypost.com/2020/03/07/what-life-is-like-inside-milan-amid-italys-coronavirus-epidemic/

Dalal owns RCL puts with a $9 per month carry lol. Of course he bought them weeks ago and is up big time! The "Washington deaths are exploding" narrative is also deliberately misleading nonsense. An entire nursing home got infected and through mismanagement and probably some bad luck, many of those folks will die. That is hardly, at all a sample size or point of data any reasonable person would use. You seem to be incredibly dedicated to this on your twitter as well. A wise man once said "an ounce of prevention is worth a pound of cure". That message seems lost on some here, sadly. Not to worry, we will know soon enough who is correct--like I said, Chinese studies showed median 2 weeks from symptoms to mortality. I hope I am wrong, but I am preparing for the best and utilizing social media to encourage people (esp those > 50 years old) to take precautions. You are long on sayings and short on substance and where it shows most is with data points like the Washington death count. It is a deliberate misrepresentation and nothing in total that has any distinction from folks who over this weekend died from the flu but didn't get any media attention. That is ultimately the difference here. Viking and others seem to have a leaning with where they suspect things may go, but make an effort to at least present things honestly and with opinion. You present things one sidedly and with intentional omissions. Most importantly, you have failed to substantiate many of these claims as to why the US is different with regard to how severely this will play out. Which makes little sense until you then look at the likely culprit should the US be an outlier, and then it all kind of makes sense. Ok bro. See you in a few weeks. We'll have the verdict in by then. Out. Which is fine and all, but again we come back to "see what" in a few weeks? RCL files for bankruptcy? A further 20% market drop? 10,000 US deaths? Or just more pom pom waving because you correctly predicted more cases would emerge?

Dalal owns RCL puts with a $9 per month carry lol. Of course he bought them weeks ago and is up big time! The "Washington deaths are exploding" narrative is also deliberately misleading nonsense. An entire nursing home got infected and through mismanagement and probably some bad luck, many of those folks will die. That is hardly, at all a sample size or point of data any reasonable person would use. You seem to be incredibly dedicated to this on your twitter as well. A wise man once said "an ounce of prevention is worth a pound of cure". That message seems lost on some here, sadly. Not to worry, we will know soon enough who is correct--like I said, Chinese studies showed median 2 weeks from symptoms to mortality. I hope I am wrong, but I am preparing for the best and utilizing social media to encourage people (esp those > 50 years old) to take precautions. You are long on sayings and short on substance and where it shows most is with data points like the Washington death count. It is a deliberate misrepresentation and nothing in total that has any distinction from folks who over this weekend died from the flu but didn't get any media attention. That is ultimately the difference here. Viking and others seem to have a leaning with where they suspect things may go, but make an effort to at least present things honestly and with opinion. You present things one sidedly and with intentional omissions. Most importantly, you have failed to substantiate many of these claims as to why the US is different with regard to how severely this will play out. Which makes little sense until you then look at the likely culprit should the US be an outlier, and then it all kind of makes sense.