Gregmal

Hi passing by distressed investor here without a dog in the fight. The answer is yes to all of the above three cases due to company specific issues that the initial March/April shutdown caused. Definitely March/April government induced shutdown, but these businesses all had bankruptcy in their futures anyway, its been visible for years. Or at least the high % of such. Although I dont really think a lot of investors even understand the ramifications of many of these bankruptcies. For sure, COVID has almost become an excuse to try and squeeze lenders. But the majority of these companies are still going to exist and have similar, albeit reduced, footprints. Its essentially a necessary gimmick.

Ah, Thanks. I've never been to the FL Keys. I've got to get down there someday. Yea, everything down there is referenced by mile marker since the entire collection of islands is only accessible via one road, which is US-1.

Thank you. What does below MM 30 mean? What do you do outdoor in Utan, Montana, Wyoming? Shortly after Miami, I-95 turns into US-1. At the top of the Keys you're at around 100 and the end is Key West which is MM0. 100-75MM is basically tourists and fishing heavy, especially the 80's. 75-30MM is pretty much locals. A little blue collar and hick-ish. 30-0MM is probably one of the few candidates for a utopian community in the US, at least that I am aware of. Something for everyone, from culture, to food, to historical stuff. Fishing, diving, partying. People of all shapes, sizing, colors, and orientations coexist and everyone just gets along and wants to live life. Awesome place. I looked at this briefly and you are looking at ~500k for a fairly crummy Appartement and who knows how much for a house. RIP if you get a hit by a hurricane. I wonder what the insurance is for a house there? Also, for Muscleman, it would be a bit far from Seattle. Ive got a condo in Tavernier(basically where they filmed NFLX's Bloodline)$550k for 3/2 with $600 or so monthly maintenance and $4k a year in taxes. 90 minutes from Miami and 90 minutes from Key West. You'd be surprised about how differently the buildings down there are constructed. While the palm trees and docks get messed up bad, that buildings are typically capable of withstanding up to 200 mph winds. For instance Earnest Hemingway's home from the 1920s(originally built in the 1800s) is still good and well. It survived the big one in the 30's and it survived the big one a couple years back. As for muscleman, its just a suggestion. This is probably(even from what friends in the area tell me currently in a covid world), one of the most AirBNB able areas in the country. If you can "swing" working remotely, perhaps even a quote on quote, full time residence, for tax purposes, thats another benefit. Although like me, I doubt one would easily be able to go from Seattle weather to South Florida without an adjustment period.

Thank you. What does below MM 30 mean? What do you do outdoor in Utan, Montana, Wyoming? Shortly after Miami, I-95 turns into US-1. At the top of the Keys you're at around 100 and the end is Key West which is MM0. 100-75MM is basically tourists and fishing heavy, especially the 80's. 75-30MM is pretty much locals. A little blue collar and hick-ish. 30-0MM is probably one of the few candidates for a utopian community in the US, at least that I am aware of. Something for everyone, from culture, to food, to historical stuff. Fishing, diving, partying. People of all shapes, sizing, colors, and orientations coexist and everyone just gets along and wants to live life. Awesome place.

Depends on a lot. What do you fancy? If you just want sunshine, and have a little cash, Key West/below MM 30 area of FL Keys is unlike anywhere else in the US. If its outdoorsy stuff, a little bit of money(for coastal high earners) can get you a ton in places like Utah, Montana, Wyoming. If it's a combination of things, and perhaps tax related, look at the NV side of Lake Tahoe.

You can play the games if you do it intelligently. I am surprised MLB didnt use the bubble. I have no doubt the NBA and NHL will finish the season. Baseball is questionable, but the one you are very likely to see get cancelled is the NFL. Not only no bubble, but the amount of contact should make it nearly impossible. Let alone the fact that I cant really think of another league with more players who display regularly that they have poor judgment and no self control.

The individuals are definitely fucking this up. Trump has just been encouraging them from a position of authority and a wide reaching audience. Also, Trump being president is in a position to make decisions that positively or negatively impact tens of millions (if not hundreds). Any decision made by an individual is likely limited to directly impacting a handful of people. So individuals are making poor decisions that impact tens of people and Trump has been making terrible decision that impact tens of million of people. A baseball player(or any athlete) breaks protocol to go to a strip club(already happened). Then gets the virus. Forget even the whole "exponential growth" thing that many have continuously brought up. This immediately effects way more than "tens of people". Multiple players and personnel get it. It gets so bad, the season has to be cancelled. How many lives and dollars does this "one person" effect? What about the fringe prospect who's 28 and is at a make or break point in their career only to have the season get canceled? How about normal people, someone with symptoms who still goes to a supermarket? Teenager going to a beach party and then coming home to the family? There are indeed big ripple effects. There is a lot that is in ones control, and a lot that isn't. What is easier for YOU to control? Again, I totally agree about a lot of Trumps actions, or lack there of. But you also now are seeing the result of the people who have spent years crying wolf. They used up all their credibility complaining about Russia, the election, Ukraine, Ivanka's tweets, etc...

Exhibit A https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/29572885/sources-mlb-commissioner-warns-shutdown-players-do-better-job-managing-coronavirus So after tons of planning, consultations with health officials and experts, 113 pages of protocol, the players are simply not listening. Trumps fault? Governors fault? Manfred's fault? Individual responsibility and accountability is just not everyone's cup of tea it seems. While everyone seems to have a big time opinion on Trump, why nothing for the individual? After all, I'd wager some pretty big pesos that I have a better chance of meaningfully determining whether I get sick than any politician. As do you. So....if its "impossible" not to blame the federal government, is it not doubly impossible not to blame individuals given they have greater control over THEIR situation? Greater control over whether or not they wear a mask or get a vaccine... Or would this simply be wading too far into impactful conversation fodder?

Well, let me ask you then, you had the chance to vote for Romney in 2012, and actually had he won, Trump would never have gotten into office. Did you? I doubt it. If you did, then at least you are consistent. If you didnt, the "I wouldn't mind Romney" stuff is just half measure fluff to veil partisanship. As fake as all the "he was a great person" stuff you see when a person who lived an otherwise unsavory life passes away tragically. Nobody can say, "yea he was a scumbag"(even if it's true), the same way most cant say "I will always vote down ballot"(even if its true). Otherwise, yea, Trump does a lot of boneheaded stuff and caters to headlines and "his base" more than act Presidential. But this isn't news and as I ve consistently said, I think if you guys really believe a lot of what you write, you are sadly mistaken because by and large, Trump, as well as pretty much every politician Ive ever come across, gets a whole lot more credit(both good and bad) than they really deserve. They are largely hollow, leech like figureheads. I dont think Trump is a leech, he has enough money. He's just an attention whore and an egomaniac. But most politicians arent rich and only become so by being a leech.

Does this have retard potential? https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/soc-telemed-to-merge-with-healthcare-merger-corp-301102426.html Ive noticed "some" favorable setups in the "potential retards". You'd again have to think some of the SPAC's present favorable setups with the NAV backstop and leverage in warrants. You also have to bring yourself to buying things that arent typically the preferred cup of tea. Certainly not for everyone. And certainly have to be willing to gamble and therefor allocate responsibly. I'd highlight the obvious risks, especially known to SPACs...such as, from the release... TJ Carella, Managing Director at Warburg Pincus, said, "We are excited to join forces with the HCMC team and to continue our partnership with SOC in delivering value to its many customers." Amr Kronfol, Managing Director at Warburg Pincus, added, "We are very grateful to Paul for his leadership of SOC and believe that Steve and John are well positioned to drive the company forward in this next phase of its growth."

Except for that fact that, many people, including me, have acknowledged Trump's actions have been poor in many cases. What you're leaving out is your glaring neglect of any other facet or shared "blame", because it doesnt fit the agenda. Somehow, in an effort to highlight how much society has degraded in terms of its reliance on "credible sources", we've gone from "Wikipedia isn't a great source" to now Twitter being the primary go to for many.... I'm fine being political, Im fine being "apolitical". Same cant be said for everyone, most of them will likely disappear for good when the new site launches in September. You cant possibly claim to not have an agenda, when 90% of what gets posted has the same undertone to it. You also cant sit here and seriously make the case "government should have encouraged masks earlier, its the only vaccine we have", and then out of the other side of the mouth make the claim "I won't get a vaccine because of the government". Its also not incredibly hard to see that many people, in many states, won't listen to the government, whether federal, state, or local, regardless. This has held true in every state from Texas and Florida, to NY and NJ. You guys who want to harp on about the Federal government, continue to selectively highlight narrative fitting talking points, and ignore others. For instance, please explain to me, how the federal government is in anyway responsible for what happened at the Chainsmokers concert in the Hamptons? Or young people flocking to beaches and bars in Florida? So no its not strange that "all the guys who would like this to be "apolitical"....that aint me. Pick your game and I'll play. Just please at least have the credibility to admit you are playing the game!

Well, we had an inflection point with this thread around late February. Efforts were made at first to remain objective, but then once it became clear Sanjeev had no interest in keeping this non-political, it became fair game to shoot back at all the liberal propagandists. Off the rails it went, indeed. Lets not pretend its one sided though. HCQ has become a battleground issue...no idea why. NY deaths were Trumps fault. Florida and Texas were out of hospital capacity "any day now", almost 2 months ago... along with their death rates supposedly going to match NY/NJ's "in two weeks", for months now. Most sensible people know most of the narratives on both sides are bullshit, but if thats the game thats going to be played out here, so be it.

Bought some GLDD. May write it up later. Very interesting company. Turn around story, high barriers to entry, lots of free call options on various businesses/developments, including global warming.

Yeah, every time we have a crisis, everyone says "plummet" "spirals out of control" "slammed". In the Queens residential rental market. We got down to about 50% rent collection in April from the chatters that I had with people. Many of the tenants are restaurant employees. But by July, they are getting close to 80-100% rent collection. Obviously, smaller # of units equals big fluctuations. But if you talk to enough people, the overall numbers tend to be meaningful. The things that worries me is the crime. Simply put, if a cute 22 year college grad is afraid to move to NYC because she feels (doesn't matter if it's true or not) unsafe, then we have a problem. The key is the perception not the actual stats. If that cute 22 year old don't want to move to NYC, then the companies have no reason to set up shop there. That's a real spiral. This is why I worry about DeBlasio. The only time that I have really seen the US Housing Market get SLAMMED was during 08/09. It really got slammed. Simply put, people could not afford the mortgage. It was ludicrous. If you have 20-30% equity in your RE and you can service the debt, you will do everything you can to hold onto it and keep chugging on. In RE, the transactions happen because either you can no longer pay your mortgage or your bank force you to sell. No one sells RE in the private market by saying "hmm, this looks a little rich, let me sell and re-deploy into some other liquid asset class. I don't mind paying cap gains and depreciation recapture as well." Depreciation Recapture is a bitch. As I have gotten older, I have come to appreciate how much inertia there is once you have kids and wife. Man, I don't make the most rational decision anymore on a purely financial basis. Rule number one, keep the Mrs happy. Rule number two, listen to the Mrs. Rule number three, pay attention to the future needs of your kids. Rule number four, don't forget these 3 rules and verbally communicate to the Mrs. that those are your top priorities. Rule number five, now you can think about what you want. Branching off your point about crime, I have a life long friend who was always a bit of a suburb/country guy. Carpenter by trade. Vowed his ambition was to buy a decent plot with a small house and a huge garage with a loft in a rural part of NJ/PA. Then he met his wife, who was a typical suburb girl. Needed to go get the "live in NYC/Hoboken" right of passage out of her system, and he got dragged along. Both worked in NYC so at least it was convenient. They have a 1 year old as well. Turns out that the BBQ shooting that killed the infant in Brooklyn was on their street. They went to their landlord the following week, negotiated a breaking of their lease, and are moving back to the burbs. I share your concerns about the effect of crime, although I have for awhile, well before this outbreak. On the leasing/collections side, at least in terms of CRE, I've gotten significantly more comfortable lately as the results have rolled in and figures solidified a bit. The doomsday situation IMO was current leases being broken and huge numbers of insolvencies or properties flooding the market. This is clearly not happening. As long as we continue to see CRE tenants paying their rent, the best players, with strong balance sheets and good properties, will be quite OK.

More generally, I think it is a mistake(mentally) how everyone always assumes, everything needs to "plummet", "get slammed", "crash", etc. There are so many of variable outcomes in between the goal posts of the situations entirety, thats ridding yourself of that knee jerk panic reaction is usually helpful. What Ive seen in the markets I follow(blue, high tax, NJ/NY) is the same as has been occurring for awhile. Insatiable demand for sub $500k SF, above that price point it gets a little trickier, although there has been a bit of uptick in demand there as well.

LEAP is just a longer dated option. Can be in or out of the money.

Yet....we continuously see some folks quoting mouthpieces on Twitter.....who dont even have the credentials of... you know, MD. Further, this lady has a crazy theory, whatever. People are fine to judge her on that. Same with Kyrie Irving thinking the Earth is flat. But its downright stupid to say that "everything else they say is invalid" because of it. Its just a stupid tactic liberals use to discredit people. I can learn about medical subjects from a doctor with outlandish or otherwise crazy views; I can learn about basketball from Kyrie....tolerance of opposing viewpoints/beliefs for the win! Except rb, who must really be genuinely concerned about all those rabid Trump sheep dying from coronavirus HCQ....

That's not really how we're supposed to do medicine and drugs. There's a reason why we bother with all those pesky drug trials and have prescriptions and stuff. These are not sugar pills. Drugs also have side effects and can be dangerous. I have yet to hear of a dream catcher side effect. That's why promoting wrong drugs is dangerous and irresponsible. People will seek those drugs. Doctors are supposed to be the gatekeepers but in many cases they just fold. That's how people were able to get huge amounts of oxy and kill themselves. Oh right and just cause the promotion comes from a buffoon doesn't make it any less harmless. After the disinfect yourself with bleach press conference there was a remarkable number of people that actually drank bleach. BLEACH! And there is a process. You need a prescription. But HCQ is still not a banned substance. So there's that.

So if it doesnt work, and you dont see a valid argument for it, why continue to get so worked up over it? No one is forcing it down your throat...Conversely, if someone else seems to think it has a benefit, they should be able to do as they wish. Same way some weirdos have dream catchers or other trinkets they ascribe some sort of value to. Are you really this intolerant of everyone else's opinions and beliefs? Stop "pretending" to be concerned about the "health" of people you clearly possess such disdain for. We all know you guys love blabbering on about it simply because you feel every time you do, that you're "really showing Donald!".... let it go.

It is kind of strange how invested some people seem to be in proclaiming HCQ as either effective or ineffective.

To each their own. Different people have different priorities. I remember relating tremendously to the section of the HBO doc on WEB when his wife was telling the story about bringing up the pot when she was sick. Sometimes, when you are a deep dive person, the lights are on, but mentally you're just somewhere else. But personally I'll never understand not doing everything you can to be there for your kids. After a certain point, money becomes meaningless. Its hard not to judge people who spend their whole lives rabidly in pursuit of it to the cost of many of the "finer" things in life. I would never trade the opportunity to experience certain things on my own terms for any amount of money. From time to time I get offers to go work for people in the city or at an office. While I'm always flattered, the response is always the same. "Can I pickup my son from Pre K at noon? Can I take my daughter to swim lessons at 2pm on Thursday? Your answer is my answer. Thanks though." Of course, none of this means there isn't a boatload to learn from folks who do it differently. If anything, having the roadmap of people like Buffett, who dedicate their lives to certain causes(regardless of our opinions on their nobleness) make it somewhat easier for all those that follow.

Gregmal, Why don't you just tell it like it is. You bought it for the potential "Tech Lock and Pop" effect. LOL. Offering me a tech SPAQ IPO right now is like offering Johnny Depp some.... well, you know what Im getting at. Have another lined up for Friday.

35 @ 1.85

Finally got filled on a handful of MSGE $100 Feb calls.

I own a bit of LMT, but I've also always really liked Elbit Systems. A bit smaller and more specialized, but very well managed company.