Gregmal

Have you considered the possibility that the reason why things are going okay in Lombardy these days is because they actually made significant progress towards herd immunity during their atrocious outbreak in the spring? Lombardy is a region where the official numbers state that there have been 97k diagnosed cases and 17k deaths recorded for a region of 10m people. With a ~17% calculated CFR, clearly the official statistics are drastically under-counting the true number of cases in that region. So, run the calculation backwards, beginning with the number of deaths to infer a plausible number of infections in the region. If you are in the camp that believes that the IFR is likely around 0.5% or 0.6%, then the 17k deaths implies about 3 million infections. A region of 10m people with ~3m infections could be quite far advanced along the path to herd immunity. So, are the current daily numbers in Lombardy indicative of good management in the present, or poor management in the past? SJ Specifically around this exchange about herd immunity, in early June, the Bergamo province reported population antibody levels at 57% which would clearly not support the notion that much lower antibody levels prevalence would be sufficient herd immunity under any circumstances. However, the numbers suggest that herd immunity had become a contributing variable going forward, at least for those who could mount one (immune response). ----- Bergamo has meaning here because it's a nice city perched on a hill that marries well the ancient with the modern and is a great example of the mixed human nature of the Piedmont region. Its geographical features also make it an ideal place for the start or the finish of cycling race. It's also relevant because this CV threat, for me, became really real when first accounts (early March when choices had to be made for survival and when army trucks were handling coffins) of what was happening in hospitals made it to my email box. This is when i decided to establish a scorecard looking at the effectiveness of various national public health organizations and leaders across the world in dealing with this phenomenon.. The Bergamo province and Northern Italy had a similar experience compared to various areas of Spain, New York and my jurisdiction with a large spread occurring before the actual implementation of measures (spontaneous, encouraged and imposed). In hindsight, whatever the causes (close to high volume international airports, large events as super-spreading catalysts, older and more fragile population etc), it looks like every day counted and it is reasonable to suggest that the outcome would have been a 100x better if measures that were actually applied had been applied about 2 weeks earlier (with obviously a much lower cost). It's been shown that the viral load is highly determinant as to whether one catches the disease or not and how sick or dead one can become. The viral load concept can be applied to the population level and is one more argument suggesting that herd immunity is a dynamic concept. Bergamo showed that a high population viral load will drive up the population herd immunity required to contribute to flattening the curve. There are several quantifiable and sophisticated ways to report on what happened in Bergamo. Here's one example (and i'm sorry to say a preventable one): Note: to understand, there is no need to speak Italian or for fancy statistical knowledge. ----- Even though the value in the hotspot is 57%, Italy as a whole is far from herd immunity with only 2.5% antibodies overall. https://medicalxpress.com/news/2020-08-italians-covid-north.html Another tidbit, for whatever it’s worth. Italiy’sVOVID-19 fatality rate is 586/1M. When the US reaches 198k death (we are currently at 177k and increasing by almost 1k/day) we will be just as bad as Italy. That should occur around mid September at latest. I recall folks talking on Italy’s incompetence back in February. Well, it took a while but we have beaten them to it. What happens when NJ/NY are removed from the fatality rate? They are definitely in a league of their own.

Investing is boring. Just sit and watch everything go UP. Dude, thats it! Thats why, deep down some of us are drawn to the office REITs! Similar to the old adage, something about the occasional 2 being necessary in order to appreciate the 10s. I will leave out the rest of the analogy for the sake of the children. But now it makes sense. The office REIts are just there to make us appreciate everything else!

Yea but what if you hate Trump and just need an outlet?

Muh-knee....Its almost always, all about the Benjamins. The best companies just do a great job manipulating their imagine.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/florida-keys-spot-one-best-130000496.html Dives moderately into the numbers on rental income

Added to MSGE & S, ILMN

https://nypost.com/2020/08/17/shocking-images-show-packed-wuhan-pool-party-in-former-coronavirus-ground-zero/ CLEARLY! concerned about the virus....

You know, as they say, the first 50 bags are much harder than the next 50!

Sooo...lots has and hasn't changed here since all the +1 worthy "it fell when everything else did, I knew it was bs" stuff happened back in March. The larger question regarding the "thesis" here(if you will call it a thesis for the funny money), is still: -scarcity -acceptance/adoption as store of value -lack of government interference The first two seemed to have only strengthened with recent events, and while the third issue is still up for debate, it seems less of a risk as incompetence festers elsewhere(all that money printing) and banks now, even some of the TBTF ones, start getting involved. Is there any reason this is not likely to be taking out ATHs? There's certainly a lot of funky stuff trading at bubble type valuations right now, but this at least is in its own universe of uniqueness as an "asset"(if you will give it that benefit of the doubt). It may, as I said much earlier in this thread, be another case of the little guy catching on before the institution, and after a "scare the little guy out and accumulate" campaign from the institutions for the past couple years, it may be time for a new chapter here.

How many people "knew" better than to buy AMZN, TSLA, NFLX, FB, or even lesser known equivalents like TDG, HEI, WING, etc only to have it go completely the other way? Conversely, how many people "knew" of all the value in....dont know if I want to start naming names because its sensitive and subjective, so if you disagree with the name, try to focus more on my point.... SD, SHLD, SRG, etc? The truth is that most people dont really know, and even most of the ones that "do", dont escape the same fate. The trick is really just to find something you are comfortable with, company or strategy wise, and be consistent with its application.

RBACU

Taleb was sooo last week. He/she/they have apparently learned about "false equivalency" recently and now EVERYTHING is apparently an example of false equivalency.

Theres "good people on both sides" lol. Viking and some others have been reasonable and valuable here. I dont think Canadians in general have it out for America. There is again, cultural differences, and there is also Trump. He's very divisive and I dont think its a Canadians hate America thing as much as it is the fact that Trump has basically gone after every country we associate with in an attempt to squeeze out a few schekels in favor of the USA. Its bound to piss people off. There is also probably a little bit of little brother syndrome as well. I'm still waiting for all the lockdown countries who now supposedly "think less of the US" bc of covid to keep having flare ups...while we get on with our business because we let the thing run its course. Of course theres also the folks who continue to shift narrative. Dalal is always right about everything! He predicted more COVID cases and death will come tomorrow and by golly, I think he may be right. Of course when he's wrong, the evidence quickly disappears or gets modified. I definitely doubt the doctor claim. At best, psychiatrist. I wouldn't even give him dentist. At worst he's an academic with a PHD who demands the title...we all know about those..

I utilize brokers often as a way to learn about different markets. You have to do proper DD otherwise you'll waste time talking with pikers. But theres ways to learn who the big guns are and these people have immense value and connections. And, as is true with any broker, they are almost always willing to talk to you because its their job. For instance, in April, I was talking to a guy here about some Newark/Jersey City area CRE, and he goes "no one is buying anything right now. Why would they when you can get Vornado where its trading?" Funny, but also partially accurate with a lot of the private market feedback I got. Public markets are a much better all around investment right now.

Aaaaaand, at the same time, out of the other corner of the mouth, Trump is responsible for 160k+ deaths! If Trump is responsible, so are governors, no? Probably even moreso. Or...there's other factors at play, such as density, etc.... LOL you guys cant even be consistent. Yup, entertainment.

Bought a few Oct VIX $35 calls as my August ones roll off worthless. Also bought a small bit of BTI.

The China and Russia vaccines will probably be vilified by the left as an election interference serum....

OK, fair enough. I took "few weeks" and didnt include early July as thats over a month ago. But this still has what to do with my original point? How does this compare to what NY/NJ numbers looked like during the peak?

Do the demographics, land mass size, population, population density etc too. NYC has a population density of 38,424 per square kilometer NZ has a population density of 15 people per square kilometer. Why dont you post a twitter link on the data from Antarctica to really hammer the point home. This is all thats left at this point, for the boys who cried wolf.

https://nypost.com/2020/08/10/thousands-gather-for-wild-rave-at-prospect-park-in-brooklyn/ Social distancing in NY. But we still cant get an indoor restaurant reservation...

That's quite the claim. For something so obvious, I'm sure you'll have no trouble providing us with the evidence. Perhaps, but at what cost? Texans have been travelling to neighboring states over those weeks to escape such onerous requirements. Somewhere between 5-10k Texans died from COVID in the past few weeks. I guess these are necessary sacrifices to the COVID-god, so the rest of Texas can drink in air-conditioned bars without wearing a face mask. There have been 8K TOTAL covid related deaths in TX since this whole thing started. That is simply not true.

Not in the past few weeks! Otherwise, you'll get no argument from me about how bad New Jersey is. In fact as a New Yorker, I'd be happy to contribute a few lines if you'd like...shall we start with the smell? ;D Sure, not in the past few weeks. As has been said, they "ate their vegetables"... assuming you consider remdesivir a vegetable. Record vegetables eaten in March/April. 8-10% death rates...hardly the model. And now those that didnt die, are at the mercy of "I'll let you know when you can get on with your lives, but not anytime soon"....from Murphy and Cuomo...

How right you are! 10,000 or so (I just eyeballed it) people died from COVID in Az & Tx over the past few weeks. Morgue capacity is probably more necessary at this point. Indeed. Worse than NY for all them dumb red states didnt exactly play out. In fact, FL, GA, AZ, and TX have less deaths combined, than just NY. The relevant question right now for NY/NJ and those states....if you won't allow businesses to open in counties seeing less than 100 cases PER WEEK, well, when will they be able to open? And if you are forcing them shut(yea imagine that? A filthy rich Goldman banker putting mom and pop shops out of biz in order to bolster his political ambitions?) why do you continue to charge them property taxes? And at the "corporate rate" at that? Disgusting.

Governor jackass in NJ continues his daily pressers. Its become clear that any success he had handling this originally, has been totally overshadowed by the selfish, "look at me" parade he continues to embark on. Yea, keep talking about how low the rates are and how great it is going, while suffocating your residents and still refusing to let businesses open. Keep sending in the police to arrest gym owners... and having state trooper drive-by's every half hour to harass every bar and restaurant....What a clown show. Says Murphy.... “Believe me, I want to get to gyms, I want to get to indoor dining, I want to get to theaters,” Murphy said. “But we can’t do it if we think we’re gonna have a likelihood of killing people.” Oh dont worry Goldman banker turned politician....you and Cuomo already set records for killing people.... Still waiting on all the hospitals going over capacity in Georgia, Arizona, Florida, and Texas as well. Two more weeks I guess?

As for the Gates theories, I dont buy it either. Bill is one of MANY, MANY resources available to Berkshire. Gates pitched Buffett hard on buying MSFT a long time ago; Warren didnt get it, and didnt do anything. Look at the stocks that make up the majority of the Gates portfolio. Definitely more WEB influenced than Gates(with a couple exceptions). Oh yea, and the fact that Gates was buying stocks in Q1. Which is not to say Gates was bullish, but he clearly was OK buying the same stocks WEB often laments missing, while WEB himself, did not. If it was Gates, well than I think that needs to channel an entirely different bunch of queries. Such as, when the going gets tough, how do I feel about Bill Gates being the shot caller at BRK? I think the much more plausible scenario is that as things progressed, specifically mid to late May, it became obvious that while some of the already shut down states like NY/NJ etc would probably be shutdown for a long time, most of the rest of the country would open back up and people clearly weren't going to change their long term behaviors. Memorial Day I think was kind of a wake up call for many. Warren probably realized this, and while valuations arent by any means cheap, the other side is that now we have an economic reset, and subsequently, a low base(data wise) similar to what we had in 2010-2012, a point in time when many also felt the market was in a bubble and propped up by the Fed. The next piece of the puzzle may be revealed in a week or so, when Q2 positions get disclosed.