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Gregmal

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Everything posted by Gregmal

  1. Subs declining obviously isn't great, but this isn't the decline of sports as we know it. The teams suck and had a summer that can only be described as embarrassing. But MSG Networks owns the content and really just needs to find a way to monetize it differently, before cable/cord cutting becomes too much of a problem. Right now it isn't a problem IMO. Sports betting will only further keep the gravy train moving. But for now its trading with something like a 20%+ FCF yield with $45M in interest expenses to likely be eliminated or significantly reduced in the next 3 years. Big buybacks and dividends are also expected at 2X EBITDA, which should also be in the not too distant future. Given that Dolan controls this and will do what it takes not to destroy his own company, I see zero chance at this being a 0 ever, and zero chance the distribution rights disappear in 15 years or whatever unless it is of significant benefit to another Dolan entity, which I also happen to own.
  2. Dolan still controls both entities. He won't just let the contract run out and wipe out billions in value. Just added more at 14.75. Company has been plowing cash into debt pay down, now standing around $700M net of cash. You've got $200M FCF and even with sub decline a fairly decent chunk of it will continue to get offset by decrease in interest expenses.
  3. Yup, from the looks of it, I'll likely be adding to this(again) today as well. Bottomless abyss. Odd for a company with such easily predictable and stable earnings. I think Dolan is actually a plus here, as he has the power to change many of the arrangements that may or may not become favorable with MSG, and will basically be able to make whatever arrangements are necessary to get a deal done. He obviously wants to sell this, and given the capital needed for his giant TV projects, will likely have to start considering selling some assets given he isn't really allowed to borrow much against the sports teams.
  4. Bass is just another example of a really smart Wall Street guy who can't make money.....for his investors. He still managed to make himself rich
  5. Added some MSG under 270. Couldn't help it. Always sells off on earnings. Earnings for MSG don't matter. Hopefully the market never learns...
  6. How many shares did you snag? Just curious about your view on GRIF. Got 2,000 between 34.86 and $35, First, your/the thesis is right. You won't lose money on GRIF at $35 unless you're a forced seller. I just think you're a bit early. Full disclosure, on a quick bounce to high 30's I'm probably out. I think this is the low end of an opportune trading range. Done it a couple times before. Longer term, I think this is something that fits the FRP/CTO mold in that its transformational while under the radar. A couple years out I think they've got a shot at doing $30M NOI. That puts the share price at $55+ with the other assets valued at nil. Gabelli is + much like Winters was at CTO. Management is so far, from what Ive observed, capable. Not outstanding but not a detriment. Basically, Im cool with FRPH here, and I see CTO going parabolic with it's catalysts between now and next year's AGM, so I want to line up my next one. GRIF doesn't have the liquidity to just hop on in, so this is a good starter spot IMO. I believe Ive shared with you my position on CTO. Im fine going there with GRIF as well if we get $30 or below. There might not be a hard catalyst, but one of my favorite catalysts is when people say "there's no catalyst". More often than not that is when the catalyst is right around the corner.
  7. Don't forget tenure as well! The truth is that the good teachers find ways to bank it. I knew a couple that worked middle/high school who also taught a few courses at the local universities. Double and triple leveraging their knowledge base to easily earn six figures. A few others did their 20-25 prior with other government services and now have two pensions lined up. Granted, Ive also served on boards with teachers and government workers, and for the most part they are academics who have no clue how the real world works, but thats largely just what they are. Credit to the ones who figure out how to excel.
  8. Sanjeev's post from 2/09 is like Moses parting the Red Sea and then calmly leading people through it. Cool and collected during times of duress. God like. Sometimes investing is very easy. Ive found the really good investors have no problems maneuvering during the events that your average investor can't handle. Its the long periods of time spent in periods of "fairer value" where they tend to get into trouble.
  9. For starters, Appaloosa has admitted having a large position spread throughout various securities here. Second, this thread is turning into a laughable shitshow of voodoo talk.
  10. It's odd, but I've seen some of the opposite. My brother attended Stony Brook. The kids on campus live in utter shit boxes. Room and board is like $15,000 a year. Yes, the equivalent of $1250 per month rent. While it kind of comes with a meal plan, that too is a crock. The main cafeterias charge per item, and Starbucks is still airport level price wise, burgers and sandwich pricing resembles Yankee Stadium, and once you run through your "allotment" that is included with room and board, your get billed. Easily tacking on another $3000 per semester. And oh yea, you don't even have housing during winter and summer breaks. So your adjusted rent is actually about $1700-$1800 per month. Move off campus? And you can find entire houses for $1500-$2000 per month and 1/2 bedroom places for $1000 per month. I saw the same thing when I attended school in Florida what seemed like ages ago. Schools are legit scams that prey on people who trust them.
  11. Just snagged a decent starter chunk of GRIF as the opening spread was fairly narrow.
  12. But as learned with Sears, it matters but what those properties are worth of they're not sold OR if the proceeds from the sale prop up the retail business. Not saying that M is going the way of JCP or Sears - just that I'm skeptical of the value department styles provide overall given my own shopping habits and prior investment experiences Macy's needs to demonstrate it is different than everyone else. The playbook for every failing business is more or less SHLD. Sell your valuable assets and keep the crap floating. Macys should immediately spin off a SRG like REIT, sell the Macys retail operations, and then just refocus on Bloomingdales. People buy cheap knock off shit on Amazon all the time. Whereas the moat of Bloomingdales is that no one buys that kind of designer shit they sell online due to knock offs.
  13. The highlighted are just proof IMO how people are stupid. Maybe you saw it differently, or maybe you just decided to work(or not make excuses), but those lowly minimum wage jobs offer a lot more than just cash. They offer job experience and industry knowledge. The problem is that with poor people, most are not ambitious at all and just want to do the minimum. They begrudge getting up at 7:30 so they can be at work at 8, and sit there staring at their watches counting down the time until lunch break, and then 5 pm. They should be soaking up knowledge; its free tuition. Its really not hard, if you have half a brain, to work in an industry for a couple years and then figure out how to make money in that industry somewhere else in the ecosystem.
  14. From what I've heard, is its tough to fight an assessment when it is sponsored by the financial company with which you are currently utilizing for your loan origination. Many have "approved vendors". Additionally, its just not likely going to be accepted if you seek to bring in a third party, with a more favorable assessment, and ask the lender to replace their approved vendor. Even though many of us might be honest in our reasoning, the logic behind them disallowing these types of things makes sense. I know plenty of people who were getting crazy assessments ahead of home equity loans during to boom days... it was a scam. Pay the assessor $100 and pick your homes value. Which brings me to the only piece of advice I can probably give you...let it settle, and then do some due diligence(maybe have your interns do it lol) and find someone who can give you a decent appraisal and then look for a HELOC with a third party lender. You are in the city so I'd imagine your RE is a reasonably high % of your net worth/capital as you're young and shits expensive there. While I'm in the sticks as you city people call it, I made what I'd call a mistake of doing the same. I bought my home, which didn't kill me. But then followed up with some investment properties as well. All with large money down. And then I started looking at things and realizing that while I appreciated the magic inherent in a 30 year fixed, that I could reasonably expect to do better having much of this cash at my disposal. I looked at many of my options but quickly found out that any kind of RE based financial transaction will likely be expensive. Even my refi, which saved me 75 basis points, added about $8K to my principal balance. After exploring many different things, I just decided paying 3% at IB was my best option if I needed extra cash. EDIT: If its that low, maybe look to appeal your taxes as well. Then 6-12 months later get a real appraisal and take out a line of credit. Bang em on both ends..
  15. What I think is retarded, is that none of this is forced, and much of this is because of selfishness and motives not really centered around education. Community college is available to everyone, and costs very little. If your goal is an education, why not do that? Its inexcusable to excuse student loans for people who chose to go to $30K+ per year universities, took room and board, and lets face it, basically were there for the "experience" and social aspects...
  16. I had the same thing happen when doing a refi. There s a couple different things to consider. They base it on items that most people dont weigh consciously. Crap like how many sinks you have, capacity of your septic(probably not something you have to worry about), condition of various amenities, etc. I might have tried to contest it, however I had a town wide reassessment done the same year, and my assessment for that came in about 10-15% higher than my refi assessment. So I used the refi assessment to get the tax assessment lowered(about $2,000 in annual savings).
  17. Hopefully not. They are already entitled enough as it is. Nothing will ever teach them responsibility. Working how/when you feel like it(only to complain about wages), daily trips to Starbucks, paying $9 for avocado toast... they're idiots.
  18. The US legal system that gave this guy a 12 month sentence for all of this the first time? The US legal system that regularly lets celebrities and pro athletes off clean for major drug offenses if they do a 6 month rehab stint? The US legal system that lets a cop annihilate someone on video and doesn't produce even a day of probation? The US legal system that allows financial professionals and public company executives to line their pockets and pay fines without admitting guilt or having to give back all the ill gotten gains? Add in the Clintons and many other super high profile people here, and you bet; I have ZERO confidence ANYTHING, EVER comes from any of this. They might find a few small chumps to go after just to say they did something, but that's it. Our legal system is a total disgrace. I stopped being shocked long ago. How many times the same drug/DUI/firearm offenses that ruin the life(or severely impair them) of the average citizen, while famous people like Rose McGowan, Pacman Jones, TI, etc get literally nothing, over and over and over... EDIT: I'll also add, those people I listed are just pee on level famous. The folks Epstein was involved with are Illuminati level elites...
  19. Definitely another inside job. This tool, or someone who was likely involved in this, clearly had to have pulled some strings to get this guy in the position to off himself. How else does this happen after he already tried and failed, and thereafter was placed on suicide watch. Yet still manages to commit suicide...Justice will not be served here and a lot of horrible people are currently breathing a lot easier.
  20. AYR. Earnings from the cannabis companies this quarter have been incredibly robust, so I like this ahead of numbers. The peer group trades 30x EBITDA so with AYR pretty easily punching out 80-100M EBIDTA NTM, I like my chances here.
  21. Find an introducing full service brokerage firm that clears through Axos(formerly Cor) Clearing. You can buy all the obscure pink sheeters your heart desires over there.
  22. Par for the course for those types. Also drive leased cars and live paycheck to paycheck, aided of course by American Express.
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